An update on the Fantasy Guide is in place - I explain the updates here in this thread.

 

I firmly guarantee that you will absolutely love our 2012-13 Fantasy Guide. Why? Several reasons:

 

 We have built a fantastic team of writers here who all bring unique talents and insights to the table.

 

This year is the first time advanced stats have been used in a Fantasy Guide... anywhere. Dobber tackles PDO, while I introduce terms like Qual Comp, Corsi, and Zone Starts. The fantasy relevance of these statistics is tremendous – both for evaluation and projections.

 

Our guide, unlike the ones on sale at the grocery stores, is updated. A lot. We don't have a June deadline to get our work in. We update the guide almost daily right up until the puck drops. Late summer signings, trades, and so on can dramatically impact your fantasy squad.

 

Imagine if Shea Weber went to Philadelphia? The other magazines wouldn't have had it. Rick Nash will have a huge impact on the Rangers, and his absence creates some big opportunities in Columbus. We cover what others can't, which is one reason why we have kept our guide in PDF downloadable format.

 

 If you have any issues with the Guide, feel free to contact our admin account and we will try our best to get back to you as quickly as we can. This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

 

My latest for the Canucks Army – does Max Lapierre deserve the third line center gig? I think so, and if he gets it, he could be a solid 25-point, 125+ PIM forward.

 

“As it stands right now, Ryan Kesler is likely going to miss part of October. However, he may not even miss any games if the start of the season is delayed. Assuming Kesler returns fully healthy without missing any action (a big assumption, mind you), the Canucks still need to fill the third-line centre spot. Malhotra can play a fourth line role while taking a lot of faceoffs, but would that bump Lapierre to the wing? His late season offensive success in 2011-12 aside, Lapierre struggled in Montreal after moving to the wing, and he was eventually traded to Anaheim after losing his spot on the roster...


The way I see it, it's clearly time for the Canucks to reward Lapierre for his hard work and solid play in a variety of roles. It's time to give Lapierre an extended shot to play as the club's full-time third line center.”


I spent a lot of time analyzing Erik Johnson for my recent piece – The Road to Redemption in Colorado. Johnson was a can't miss prospect who was traded less than five years after going 1st overall. He hasn't been the two-way monster that many had predicted. Why not? And perhaps more importantly, can he still get there?

 

“Colorado took a risk when they traded for Johnson. But the Blues may have taken a bigger risk by trading him away. Johnson’s progression to top defenseman is far from complete, but he’s headed in the right direction once again.”


Some updates on the Seattle arena situation – I would love the opportunity to be able to drive two or three hours to watch a road game in the NHL, and the Seattle market could handle a few more pro sports teams.

 

“Hansen stated on 710 ESPN Seattle’s “Brock and Salk” show Tuesday that the Council had been “telegraphing” potential changes to the proposal and he was opening to listening to their concerns. However, although he is willing to make certain changes, Hansen said “the deal is not going to work if we are on the hook for trying to fix all of SoDo’s traffic problems.” The Council has suggested that revenues generated by the arena be used in part for traffic mitigation. Hansen pointed out that the revenue streams were carefully calculated to support a joint-use arena as currently configured, which would cost at least $30 million more than a basketball-only facility. “It is completely unfair to ask us to build a hockey/basketball arena for the same price,” he said.”


No updates out of Winnipeg regarding Evander Kane’s new contract. The same goes for Jamie Benn in Dallas.

 

The Sabres are looking to lock up Tyler Ennis to a new deal – Ennis, right now at least, is their number one center after the impressive performance he put on during the stretch run of last season.

 

Two defensemen who will be very important to Detroit’s success – Brenden Smith and Kyle Quincey.

 

“Quincey didn't exactly flourish in Detroit. Whether that was due to being in a new system or adjusting to a revolving door of defense partners, he struggled to find any consistency. In the playoffs against Nashville, Quincey found himself with less ice time than he saw in the regular season. Whether that was due to matchups or a lack of confidence in him by the coaching staff, his role seemed to be reduced. However, with the loss of Stuart and a rookie joining the lineup, Quincey is going to have to be the guy that we thought he was when he was picked up on waivers by L.A.”


NHL.com writer Pete Jensen takes a look at the best 16-man fantasy team of all time.

 

“LEFT WING


1. Luc Robitaille (1992-93 season, Los Angeles Kings)


84 games, 63 G, 62 A, 100 PIM, plus-18, 24 PPG, 265 SOG


Gretzky missed nearly half of the regular season for the Kings in '92-93, but it didn't end up being a detriment to L.A. thanks to Robitaille's incredibly balanced production (125 points, 100 PIM). Robitaille put forth arguably the greatest statistical campaign at his position in history, scoring the most points ever in a single season by a left wing.”


We have included PDO in our fantasy guide this year (no, not PDA, but PDO). It is a statistic that measures “luck” (among other things). Here is a detailed explanation:

 

“In a similar fashion, we can explore the PDO scores of individual players during the course of the year and get a read for who is benefiting from fortuitous bounces while they are on the ice. Perhaps that guy padding the score sheet regularly has been seeing the benefits of sieve like goaltending from the opposition, or maybe that guy that looks like the worst player you've ever seen (*cough*Brett Lebda*cough*) is actually being victimized by atrocious PDO as a result of his teammates not scoring, and the goalie not doing their job.”


Are Mike Ribeiro and Alexander Ovechkin a match made in heaven?

 

“First off, it tells us that Ribeiro is a player who thrives on playing softer minutes.  This is to be expected of an offensive player of his caliber, but it is undeniable that when Ribeiro saw softer competition on ice, he not only possessed the puck at a superior rate but he also put up points at a level indicative of a #1 NHL center.  So why wouldn't you want to give him those easier shifts again?

 

As just about everyone knows at this point, Ovechkin fell of a cliff last season not only in terms of point production, but also in terms of puck possession.  Ovechkin’s corsi rel was an alarming -3.4 last season, a decline of 15.3 from 2010-11.  2011-12 also represented the first season in Ovechkin’s career (since such statistics have been recorded) that he had a corsi rel not in double digits; he averaged a 13.9 in previous years.  In addition, those four seasons of dominant puck possession coincided with three triple digit point totals and an 85-point season.”


I made the point last week – give Ribeiro and Ovechkin softer minutes, while Backstrom, Laich, and company play more of a two-way role. May hurt the fantasy value of Backstrom a bit, but would maximize the abilities of Ribeiro and Ovechkin offensively.

 

Some examples of Ribeiro’s offensive ability:

 

 

 


Write comment
Comments (4)add comment

Teh Doktor said:

Teh Doktor
PDO I took a quick look at both articles. I gotta run, but will come back to them later today (probably).

Thank you for the links. It looks like all of my questions are answered in those articles.

If I have any other questions/counterpoints, I'll write back.

August 03, 2012
Votes: +0

angus said:

angus
... Teh Doktor - if you have some to read - here are two great breakdowns of PDO:

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2012/8/2/3199343/intro-to-advanced-statistics-pdo

and

http://www.fearthefin.com/2012/8/2/3215351/non-traditional-metrics-glossary-pdo
August 03, 2012
Votes: +2

Teh Doktor said:

Teh Doktor
... Got the guide yesterday, and it's great! Can't wait for the updates.

Looking at "PDO"... maybe I'm missing something here.

For one thing, save percentage is usually given as a decimal. Ex 0.904
While shooting percentage is usually given as a percent. Ex 19.3%

PDO "adds the save percentage to the shooting percentage" Ex Vrbata's PDO is 1038.

So how do you get a number for PDO specifically?

Furthermore, just looking at this for the first time (And I'm not feeling well here), shouldn't a good players PDO be better than a fourth liners, in general? Unless they are like a +75 or something? A 90 pt players PDO would be better than a 10pt players. There would be exceptions, of course. A 90pt player with a horrible +/-, for instance. But those should be few and far between.

Kind of tied to the above point/question, is that if a player has a PDO above 1000, you're saying that it should come down. And the converse is also predicted. But there are players who are better than others. The really good players should have (unless they play on an awful team) better PDO's throughout their careers. At least I would think that. So why should it be predicted that it will come back down to average?

Lastly, I'm not sure what I should be looking for with PDO: Numbers above, or below 1000. Betting suggests that you always bet with the trend, not against it (at least that is my understanding). "Never bet against a hot streak".

I'm not poking holes, or discounting the idea of PDO. I'm just trying to understand it, so I know what I'm looking at, and can come to my own decisions.

Thanks for any help.
August 03, 2012
Votes: +0

itzjules said:

itzjules
... I can't believe people are still overlooking the best shootout goal in the NHL after Malik's... Not to mention its from Ribeiro again.. You put 3 other videos before his BEST one?? Take a look: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_cBhsEYrMQ
August 03, 2012
Votes: +0
You must be logged in to post a comment. Please register if you do not have an account yet.

busy