| July 22, 2012 | Tweet |
| Rambling | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Written by Dobber | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sunday, 22 July 2012 22:33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Whoops - looks like Lucarelli can throw his entire article in the trash! The Rangers have acquired Rick Nash per Dreger. Kinda changes things. Full analysis forthcoming. My condolences Lucarelli!
Giving away 50% off coupons for the DobberFootball guides that are released Monday night. Watch for a Tweet asking you to “RT”, or else go to the Dobber Sports Facebook page and “like” the status over there. These guides are already cheap, as an introduction to fantasy football players – but cut the price in half and the cost is down to just a couple of bucks. Hey – I need a Plan B for a lockout, no? Haha Newsday is reporting that Lubomir Visnovsky has changed his mind - he doesn't want to play for the Islanders after all (ahem, idiot, cough cough). He is grieving the trade and insists his NTC is still valid. This one will go before the courts, but the trade could be voided and he's back to being a Duck. The Oilers have signed Nail Yakupov to an ELC. You knew it was coming, only question was whether it would happen in July or August. Kris Versteeg has signed a four-year contract with the Panthers. He needs to make his mark early as a top player on this team. Establish himself as a first liner. If not, if he gets hurt or has a 50-point off year - then he'll fall to the third line by 2013-14. There are too many top prospects joining the team who will pass him on the depth chart. It could be Chicago Part 2 if Versteeg doesn't make his mark.
Unbelievable. Eleven articles in my newsfeed for the Monday ramblings. Hockey news is so thin, I’ll try to comment on each of the eleven.
Puck Daddy – Red Wings GM criticized for lack of offseason splash, but is it premature? First of all, any criticism is stupid. Secondly, it’s not premature because even if nothing is done by the Red Wings this summer, they’re fine. So they were runner up in the Ryan Suter sweepstakes. You can’t win every free agent. So now what, they’re supposed to settle for the next best guy? Dumb. They need another defenseman, but there is certainly no rush. If they don’t get one until January or February, will that hurt? Not one bit. They don’t need to make a big splash. I love the forward group:
Valtteri Filppula Henrik Zetterberg Johan Franzen Gustav Nyquist Pavel Datsyuk Mikael Samuelsson Dan Cleary Darren Helm Todd Bertuzzi Drew Miller Justin Abdelkader Jordin Tootoo Patrick Eaves Cory Emmerton Jan Mursak With Damien Brunner, Joakim Andersson and Tomas Tatar as the first three call-ups. I like it because I’m high on Nyquist making a splash right away. And on defense, Kronwall is a fine No.1 guy and White and Quincey are fine as No.3 and No.4. Brendan Smith can certainly slide in as a No.5. So the only hole is a No.2 defenseman. And until January or February, just give more responsibility to the rest of them. The Wings are fine, no need to make a splash. Suter would have been nice, but if I’m a Wings fan I don’t want them to settle or rush.
Damn, the next three articles were not newsworthy/ comment-worthy at all. And the fourth one is my own ramblings from Sunday. Here’s an interesting one – the Penguins fired their lead team doctor and the rest of the medical staff. Sidney Crosby related? They misdiagnosed a concussion (it was a neck fracture). Big oops. So does this in any way improve the odds of Crosby staying healthy? It can’t hurt.
Dallas has signed Mark Fistric to a one-year deal. He played 60 games and tallied two points last season for them. But in the Fantasy Guide, we have him projected to lead the team in both Blocked Shots and Hits this year (130 and 225). Yep, that’s right – predicting Hits and Blocked Shots this year. Eat it competitors!
Here’s an update on Marian Hossa. Raffi Torres apologized and although he came short of accepting the apology, Hossa was happy with the gesture.
That’s my newsfeed. I am taking fantasy hockey Q&A right here in the forum, if you want to toss me any questions.
Also watch for my THN column this afternoon, offseason review for Montreal and Minnesota... Torres on Hossa, if you want to see it again…
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Comments (14)
pattywins
said:
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... Assists depend on the arena too ... The nhl may look at them, but if it is questionable, they do not remove them. I see home assists all the time. |
Dobber
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... I see. But it's equal footing for all GM's in fantasy hockey, we all face the same biases. I think it deserves a spot over PIM. |
Repent Tokyo
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You are missing the point, Dobber Assist and pim are gathered by the league in a standardized way. Hits and blocked shots are gathered by rink workers - not the League - and there are no standards. This is why the bias exists. |
Dobber
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... Is there a similar analysis out there for PIM? What about assists? All stats are subject to human bias, I won't poo-poo the Hit statistic just because it's the new one under the microscope. |
repenttokyo
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more on how bad rink stat reporting is in the NHL http://www.arcticicehockey.com...-takeaways http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2009/10/11/1080465/cal-clutterbuck-worldwide-leader Apparently, there were 36% fewer hits by both teams combined at Devils' home games than in their road games last season. Meanwhile, Rangers fans were treated to 39% more hits in home games than on the road. And in 2007-08, there were 18% fewer hits awarded than in 2008-09. The variance of team home hits was more than six times higher than that of team road hits last season, meaning, from rink-to-rink, year-to-year, nobody agrees on what a hit is. Indeed, the top 200 hitters in the league, who account for half the overall hits, are credited with 17% more hits at home than on the road. For the other 627 players who were credited with a hit, it's just 3%. Whoever's in charge of recording hits at most arenas is padding the stats of the big hitters at the expense of the little guys. These types of stats simply should not be in a fantasy hockey pool until they are standardized by the league. |
repenttokyo
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It's actually pretty messed up. Dobber - it's actually a bigger skew than that for hits - check this analysis out from last year: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/archive/index.php/t-893551.html Hits: Top 3 at Home from 05-06 to 09-10: Dallas (5833 vs 3592) NYR (5666 vs 4092) Ottawa (5207 vs 4065) Bottom 3: Minnesota (3171 vs 3131) Edmonton (3148 vs 3442) Colorado (3092 vs 3021) Grand Total (124782 vs 111063); 12% more Hits at Home than the Road Home Spread (max/min): 1.98 Road Spread (max/min): 1.48 Blocked shots is not as bad, but it's still there: Blocked Shots: Top 3 at Home from 05-06 to 09-10: Montreal (3412 vs 2979) NYI (3319 vs 3053) Edmonton (3085 vs 2887) Bottom 3: New Jersey (2020 vs 2859) Detroit (1972 vs 2170) Anaheim (1565 vs 2289) Grand Total (78306 vs 82271); 5% less Blocked Shots at Home than the Road Home Spread (max/min): 2.18 Road Spread (max/min): 1.42 Giveaways seems to be the biggest joke around: Giveaways Top 3 at Home from 05-06 to 09-10: Edmonton (4131 vs 164  Washington (3132 vs 1405) Los Angeles (3081 vs 1481) Bottom 3: Boston (984 vs 1675) Chicago (914 vs 1440) Columbus (776 vs 1381) *Edmonton had more Giveaways in 09-10 at Home than Columbus has had in all 5 seasons combined Grand Total (64353 vs 45633); 41% (!) more Giveaways at Home than the Road Home Spread (max/min): 5.32 Road Spread (max/min): 1.29 Conclusions: As you can see, teams on the road generally lack the same spread as they do at home. The difference in style and skill probably accounts for the 30-50% difference in top teams from bottom teams. Looking at Home tracked stats and the story changes. It's all over the place. |
Dobber
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... no more than I track which refs do the most games for certain teams, as that skews certain types of penalties. Agreed that most Hits/BS are inflated by home stat trackers, but with 60% of players playing for the same team this year vs. last no need to worry about them. As for the other 40%, it's a small consideration. Only 41 games at home, and all home teams give their guys a boost. not equally, but where a guy would get 42 Hits in EDM, 44 in MIN and 40 in DAL makes little difference. Since the average player hits about 75 times, only 39 of those are at home, what is the skew difference between buildings? Range of 36 to 42, I'm thinking. |
repenttokyo
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Dobber - question on your predictions Do you take into account the home arena for a particular player when predicting blocked shots and hits? Because since the NHL itself doesn't gather these states, that heavily skews the numbers. |
fzusher
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some news for ya: Lubo Visnovski More fun for Garth Snow According to this Slovak report Lubo and his agent are mulling going to arbitration to nullify his trade to the Isles, claiming it violates his partial NTC (can give a list of 10 teams, which the Islanders were not on). In response, Anaheim claim the clause was voided by his trade to them from Edmonton. |
UKflames
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Summer UUgghhh The dog days of Summer are truly upon us (until Wednesday and the Weber sheet is resolved)  |
Shoeless
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... Kudos - on the deadest of NHL news days, you managed to analyze the Wings roster and avoid talking about their off-season goalie acquisition. A true maestro. |
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