| June 24, 2012 | Tweet |
 |
 |
 |
| Written by Ryan Ma | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Saturday, 23 June 2012 19:10 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
There were many of us that thought the Islanders snagged a great deal acquiring Lubomir Visnovsky from the Ducks for a handful of draft picks, but the latest rumblings have Vissy considering a couple of overseas contracts (one from the KHL and the other in his home country of Slovakia) and that he might remain overseas and not return to the NHL next season.
Ramblings up a bit early tonight.
Mike Ribeiro is the newest member of the Caps. He was acquired for Cody Eakin along with a second-round pick. This finally solves the second-line center woes that the Caps have been dealing with in the past couple of seasons. But something could still be off if they lose Alex Semin to another team through UFA.
Potential depth chart for the Washington Capitals:
Filip Forsberg is under contract in the SEL for next season, so he won't be crossing the pond.
This would be an opportune time for Evgeni Kuznetsov to cross the pond and walk straight into a top-six NHL role, but earlier reports have him remaining in Russia for another two seasons. Maybe he'll reconsider...
The biggest trade of the day of course was the Jordan Staal to Carolina deal.
Career offensive numbers:
Per game offensive numbers:
If you compare the two players from an offensive perspective, then Staal definitely has a big edge over Brandon Sutter, but you also have to keep in mind that he did get ample opportunity to play with two of the league’s best in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, while Sutter really only had the help of Eric Staal.
However if you look at the defensive “real-time” numbers, they’re much closer in that respect than most people give credit for.
Career defensive “real-time” numbers:
Per game defensive “real-time” numbers:
Besides Staal’s edge in the hit department, essentially all of the other “real-time” stats are fairly comparable.
Since the Penguins have Crosby, Malkin, James Neal, Chris Kunitz and possibly Zach Parise to take care of the offensive stuff, taking a downgrade on the offensive front from Staal to Sutter shouldn’t make too significant of an impact to the team. Plus they got the eighth overall pick in Derrick Pouliot as well as Brian Dumoulin in return as well. Great trade for the Pens!
I’m going to throw a third name into the mix when comparing Sutter and Staal above.
Offensive numbers:
Defensive “real-time” numbers:
If you look at the defensive numbers, they definitely aren’t comparable to Staal or Sutter, but offensively speaking, player X is a better offensive option and probably is a decent fit as a second line center on any NHL team. If he gets the right line mates and ample ice-time, he could be a very decent offensive option. Player X is Sam Gagner. With Nail Yakupov, Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Ales Hemsky and Shawn Horcoff occupying the Oilers’ top-six. Would now be a great time to include Gagner, Linus Omark and Magnus Paajarvi in a package to a rebuilding team for a quality number one D in return? What about those three to Phoenix for Keith Yandle?
It could be a win-win for both teams, those three would help restock the Coyotes offensive cupboards, and they’re all young(ish), so that Dave Tippet can mould them into strong defensive players. In his system, he doesn’t require 100-point scorers, he only needs a couple of 45-55(ish) point producers who are willing to play a two-way game to get the job done. Moving Yandle would also rid Phoenix of a high-priced $21.5 mil four-year contract off their hands. This past season saw Oliver Ekman-Larsson take a larger role in Phoenix and essentially unseated Yandle as the number one blue-liner in Phoenix. With the return of Michalek, plus Rostislav Klesla, Derek Morris, Michael Stone, Dave Schlemko along with David Rundblad, Brandon Gormley, Connor Murphy, Chris Summers and Maxim Goncharov in the pipeline, there isn’t an immediate need for the Coyotes to be forced to keep Yandle in the mix. The Oilers would also get their highly coveted number one D. Seems to make perfect sense to me!
The Oilers’ left me scratching my head. I was ecstatic with the Yakupov pick, and overnight I was thinking hey we could also land a very solid pick in Matt Finn (who was on many first round mock drafts lists), as well. Second pick the Oiler select Mitch Moroz… I’m sitting there thinking wtf? Don’t the Oilers have a glaring need on D? You have Finn sitting there right in front of you and you pass? Yet you take a Derek Dorsett type? CoppernBlue echoes the same concerns as me.
The next two NHL Entry drafts will remain within the Atlantic division as New Jersey and Philadelphia will host the draft for the 2013 and 2014 Entry drafts respectively.
On the forecheck, takes a deeper look at travel schedules for NHL teams. I took it a bit further to see if there is any correlation between total points and travel distance. In three words, there isn’t any!
The interesting stat is in the back-to-back games. Here are the stats in teams playing in B2B games, but it is from a “gambling” website, so I can’t vouch for its validity. Teams were just 170-245 (41 percent win rate) in B2B games. The schedule this year is much more “even” than it was last year. The range was huge last year with the Sabres copping the short end of the stick (21 B2B games) with Calgary, Colorado and TB with the lowest at 10. This year the range is much closer as Columbus, Chicago, New Jersey and Islanders have the most at 16, while the Sharks get a reprieve at just nine.
Artic Ice Hockey, chimes in with the worth of Ondrej Pavelec. They opine that he’s roughly a $1.5 to $2 mil guy rather than $4 mil. The question is if they pass on Pavelec and let him walk to the KHL, who’s the replacement? Roberto Luongo? I mean if Pavelec wants $4 mil a season, Luongo’s cap hit is only $1.33 mil more than Pavelec and that to me seems like a much better deal.
Shane Doan “frustrated” with Coyotes situation, but has stated that he would love to remain in Phoenix. He also mentions that Phoenix has lost many free agents due to the unstable ownership situation. Prospective owner Michael Jamison could potentially be a solution to problem, but I don’t know if he can fully solve it.
Terry Jones thinks that Ralph Krueger is positioned to be the new head coach of the Oilers.
According to Swiss media reports, Swiss league leading scorer and one of the top performers at the recent WC, Damien Brunner, is slated to sign with the Red Wings. If it was any other clubs I wouldn’t pay too much attention to it, but the Red Wings have weaved plenty of magic snagging Europeans and turning straw into gold.
According to Ansar Kahn of M!Live, Jiri Hudler won’t resign with the Wings and will head into free agency on July 1st. He is a victim of point scarcity in Detroit, with Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen, Valtteri Filppula and Todd Bertuzzi all competing with Hudler for points and ice-time, there’s only so much that he can really do. If he goes to a team willing to openly give him 18 or 19 minutes per game in a top-six role, he has the talent to be a point-per-gamer next season.
Scott Cullen of TSN does an awesome job of breaking down player production by draft position. There are a couple of very interesting points from the column. First, second and third usually have a pretty high success rate (not surprising), in a providing a productive NHL career. What’s surprising is that after that there’s a huge dramatic drop off. Fourth, fifth and sixth have roughly a 40 percent hit rate, while seventh, eighth and ninth have roughly a 25 percent hit rate. The major surprise, the 10th overall pick, seems to be an Achilles heel for all teams with a miserable 5.9 percent hit rate, so good luck to TB with Slater Koekkoek with that pick.
Surprisingly “lucky” pick number 13 has been almost as productive as a fourth, fifth or sixth overall pick, so Radek Faksa of the Dallas Stars could have a very industrious career ahead of him. 18th, 20th, 21st and 23rd have also been relatively productive with a low 20 percent rating and given their respective draft positions, are generally where most “steals” happen. Good luck to Teuvo Teravainen, Scott Laughton, Mark Jankowski and Michael Matheson.
It also kind of explains how teams that have been perpetually stuck in that “four through 10” spot like Columbus, Minnesota, Carolina, Islanders, Florida and Atlanta/Winnipeg have never really gotten a lot out of their first round draft picks and brings us back to the if you’re going to lose, you’re better off “tanking” and “loading the dice” (74.1 percent chance of landing a quality NHLer), by getting picks one, two or three as opposed to finishing with a half decent record and playing the odds by picking four through 10 while frolicking with just 28.6 percent odds.
A thought crossed my mind yesterday, comparing the Islanders team today with the Chicago team that won the Stanley Cup back in 2009-10. If the “highly touted” prospects ever live up to their expected standards, they do bare similar resemblances to each other plus or minus a few pieces.
A couple of quality re-signings by the Stanley Cup winning Kings as they re-inked Jarret Stoll (three years), for $9.275 mil and Colin Fraser (two years), for $1.65 mil.
The Avs also extended Matt Duchene’s contract for another two-years for $7 mil. What I don’t get is why they give a longer and more expensive contract out to an unproven David Jones, but then pull off a brilliant contract on Duchene.
Latest out of the Bobby Ryan camp is that he’s “frustrated” by Ducks management and would welcome a trade anywhere. He does mention that the Flyers would be his first choice. So Dobberities, put yourself in GM Paul Holmgren’s and put up your best offer for Ryan.
This one gave me a bit of a chuckle. Hours after the NHL Entry draft the Jackets fired four of their amateur scouts. Certainly brings a lot of confidence in what they did for this draft doesn't it? Rossy go put your resume in!
Pretty slow news day, if you have any fantasy questions that you want answered post them here and I’ll get to as many as I can.
Should you be so inclined, follow me on Twitter if you think that my article/tweets are useful.
JVR montage
Luke Schenn: The Human Eraser
Set as favorite
Bookmark
Email this
Write comment
Comments (36)
MGW
said:
|
Subscribe to this comment's feed |
Figure Great ramblings, just a comment on the graph. For optimal effect, the dependent variable (in this case points) is commonly placed on the vertical axis whereas the independent (miles) should be on the horizontal. That would make it easier to see the lack of correlation. If you turn the screen on the side you can see there's a small correlation (likely insignificant) between fewer miles and more points. Independent is often the variable that is controlled or the predictor and the dependent is the variable that which is considered the outcome. That's about the extent of my knowledge on graphs |
Arm Chair GM
said:
 |
Chicago vs Islanders Looking at those lineups you are right they so close. If the Islanders just added a few pieces such as players like Hossa, Bolland, Madden, Keith, Seabrook, Campbell, Ladd and Byfuglien they would be very similar?! In all honesty none of the Islanders have been winners or overachievers so that comparison is only remotely close after a 5 th of vodka. Okposo, Bailey, Neidereter ans even De Haan to some extent have all been dissapointing so far imo and none of the Islanders defense are close to having the compete level of Chicagos big 3. Hopefully Reinhart will change that going forward! |
Corstyles
said:
 |
Ryan My 'best offer' for Ryan was the really the 'best offer for Ryan that didn't include Schenn, Voracek, or Couturier'. If Holmgren can use Wayne Simmonds as the centrepiece of a package deal for Ryan, he'll do it. But, I don't think he'd move one of the three mentioned above. |
Ryan Ma
said:
 |
Ryan Yeah it'll be interesting to see what the Flyers would need in order to pry him from Philly... |
Ryan Ma
said:
|
McDonald Yeah I thought about him, but I couldn't think of which Hawk he would be attached to. |
Ryan Ma
said:
|
Yandle Yeah I dunno I think if they have to move one of their "big guns" they would be very hesitant to... might as well tank another year and get the best defensive prospect in next year's draft or go via the FA route... |
Ryan Ma
said:
|
Isles Great insight Isles! I didn't really pay too much attention to player position or line mates rather more on who I saw similarities with against the Hawk players and thought that a lot of them had similarities if they live up to their hype... Always great to have a "homer" give us feedback on their team so we can all learn from it! |
Ryan Ma
said:
|
Jones vs. Duchene I understand that Jones was entering UFA, but you still kinda have to have a cost justification for it. I understand Duchene was RFA so you can't justify paying him heaps and heaps, but that's a good contract to allow him to "prove" himself... 2 year deal $3.5 mil which is fair market value, why couldn't they have done the same with Jones, exact same contract $3.5 per season over 2 years to "prove" himself... $4 mil for 4 years to me is a bit much given his history... But that's just me. |
Ryan Ma
said:
|
Jackets Scouts Yeah didn't like that situation 1 bit... Kinda just makes you wondering what the heck they're doing there in Columbus... |
mormerod
said:
 |
... If Philly wants Ryan, they'll have to move one of those 2 young C's. and I aint talking' young MC here. I doubt Shenn is going anywhere after acquiring his bro, do they trade Couturier? I'd think he's untouchable. He has captain written all over him. But I don't think he has the first line upside that Ryan has. |
Isle B.
said:
 |
... I didn't notice MacDonald not being there either. He was one of only 3 legit NHL defensemen in the entire NYI organization prior to the Visnovsky trade. He is good, but I would take Hjarlmarsson over him in a second. MacDonald could be a good 5th defenseman on a good team. Hjarlmarsson already was a good 4th defensemen on a Stanley Cup Champion. |
Sportfreunde
said:
 |
... You forgot Andrew MacDonald on NYI's defence. He's been their best all-round dman the last 2 seasons (yes that includes Streit last season) and he has one of the best cap hits in hockey. He's certainly a bigger part of their future than Visnovsky/Jurcina. I'd say he's better than Hjalmarsson and Johnsson wasn't part of the Hawks' cup winning team iirc. |
Isle B.
said:
|
Oilers/Yandle If the Oilers really want Yandle, I think they would have to trade Hall or Yakupov for him. I understand keeping Eberle and the Nuge as untouchables, but Yandle is a top young defenseman signed for years to come and you have to give up something of top value for that. Around 20 years ago, the Nordiques had to break up their top young forwards to get the rest of the pieces they needed to win. The Oilers will likely need to do the same eventually. |
Isle B.
said:
|
Isles stuff Visnovksy told Isles beat writer Art Staple today that he will be in camp with the Islanders. PA Parenteau will not likely be coming back (unfortunately for the Islanders). He is also a RW, not a LW. Milan Jurcina will definitely not be coming back (fortunately for the Islanders). Frans Nielsen is a center. Bailey better be a RW from here on out. He finally looked like a player who could do something in this league when was moved to the wing late last season. Could and maybe should be PAP's replacement on the top line. Moulson and Tavares play nearly every single shift together and are the team's two best forwards by a mile, so they have to line up together at the top of any depth chart. Although, as an Isles fan, I would like to believe in the comparison between the Isles now and the Hawks in 2009-10, I don't think the Isles are anywhere nearly as good or similar to that team. The Isles' blue line may have some offense now with Visnovsky, but Keith and Seabrook are well beyond any of the Isles' d-men in terms of shutdown ability. Only Hamonic is even within shouting distance of those two ca. 2009-10. As for forwards, JT and Moulson might match Toews and Sharp, but I would take just about every single other one of those 2009-10 Hawks' forwards over their Isles' counterpart, other than Strome over Madden (not really comparable). I am tempted to say Nabokov and Niemi could be a draw, but my fading memory of the 2010 playoffs would suggest otherwise. |
hawkdog
said:
 |
great ramblings this morning!! All good stuff. Personally I don't the Coyotes jump on Omark, MPS and Gagne for Yandle. In my feeble mind those three have big question marks beside them. Yandle is one of those offensive dmen that every team wants and Phoenix wants to continue with its improvement in the post season. I would think the oilers would need to up the anti. I would also think if they land Justin Shultz they are not so inclined to up the anti, but if they miss out then they have to. |
shovelguy
said:
 |
... Jones vs Duchene... c'mon. in Jones the Avs signed him past his first UFA date so it was going to cost them. Duchene, an RFA at the end of this contract, didn't have to be paid as much. Duh. |
fzusher
said:
 |
Jackets' scouts' firing Towards the end of Gare Joyce's wonderful book tracking the Jackets' scouting department during the 2005-2006 season (leading to the Brassard draft), he notes that most of the scouting department there was replaced after the draft. He also notes this was really no surprise to anyone involved. It is commonly one of the first moves done by a GM who has been put on his final notice ('this year, or else'). I'd guess that's the situation now as well. (Doug Maclean was indeed fired within the year) The quick timing can be seen as penny pinching classlessness, but it also avoids keeping those scouts hanging and gives them a head start on finding new jobs. Summer is when you get turnover in the scouting business. |
Ryan Ma
said:
|
B2B I think they're from all teams... Remember both teams might not be playing B2B together. So it might be 1 team that is playing B2B, but the other might have had a days rest, so that's only 1 team that's playing B2B not 2... Does that make sense? Edit: Yeah just checked on the website and they're from all 2nd games in B2B situations regardless of just 1 team playing B2B or both. |
ktox
said:
 |
B2B Are the B2B 41% winning stats for all B2B games or only when one team is completing a B2B? If two teams are both playing the second leg of a B2B against each other, then the stats will be driven toward 50% and the stat is not that useful. |
Ryan Ma
said:
|
Alzner I was thinking Poti was returning after taking so long off from injury, which is why I left Alzner out, but your link cleared that up... |
sentium
said:
 |
... Ummmm, yeah, Alzner is their stone cold, primary first pairing dman. How was he not included from the start? |
smack
said:
 |
Re: Vissy That's what I got, too, but if there's an agreement now between the two leagues I don't understand how he can break a contract unless I'm missing something. |
Ryan Ma
said:
|
Vissy From what I read from that article I think it's regardless of lockout... Have a read and let me know what you think... |
smack
said:
|
re: Visnovsky I'm assuming that's only if there's a lockout as isn't there some agreement now between NHL and KHL and Vis is under contract, I believe. Am I correct? |
Grinningbuddha
said:
 |
... Filip Forsberg is under contract for one more year with Leksand, he won't be eligible to play with Ovi and friends this year. |
Ryan Ma
said:
|
Yandle But they won't move one of their big assets like Hall, Eberle, RNH and Yakupov... those guys would be untouchable IMO... I could see the Oilers sending a D prospect back maybe a Gernat or Musil maybe even Teubert since Phoenix loves their D prospects... But you are right... If teams miss out on Suter, the Yotes can ask for the moon for Yandle. I was just tossing a line out there to see what Dobberities would offer for Yandle. |
InnocentBystander
said:
 |
... nice job. just one thought: i would be shocked if yandle didn't pull a bigger package than three potential second liners from edmonton. no way phoenix lets him go so cheaply... he is a game changer and one of the very best at his position in the entire league - and his contract is an enormous asset for the calibre of player attached to it... i think edmonton would have to return one of their young studs to make anything happen in a deal... |
Ryan Ma
said:
|
Poti Fair enough They also still have Alzner and Erskine as well, so they've got a lot of depth on the blue line. |
sentium
said:
|
... Just a small note. I've seen several people include Tom Poti in Washington's top six dmen next year. That's probably not a good representation of how it'll actually play out. He hasn't played in one and a half years and George McPhee doesn't think he'll ever be able to play again. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capitals-insider/post/capitals-doubtful-tom-poti-will-be-able-to-play-again/2012/01/18/gIQAsRk67P_blog.html He's LTIR fodder until the end of his contract. |
Ryan Ma
said:
|
Draft position 150% agree with you... I think he's alluding more to the fact that the first three picks are generally can't miss... I mean you have your Patrik Stefan's, but more often than not you'll get much more productive pieces at 1,2 or 3 than you would at 4,5,6,7,8,9 and 10... If you look at Edmonton, 3 consecutive number 1 picks, you would think eventually getting that many top-tiered prospects eventually they'll get it together... Same thing with Chicago, Pittsburgh and you could argue Caps... I know there's a lot of critics about tanking and how it's not right blah blah blah, but at the end of the day there's a lot more evidence to prove that this is a much better way of rebuilding than to play your guts out finish 9th in your division and continually are stuck in the middle. I've seen it with the Oilers all through the 90s, the Flames currently, Leafs for 50 years... Minny, Winnipeg, Columbus currently... I understand that someone has to pick past the top three picks and that not everyone can pick 1,2 or 3, but eventually if you keep missing out on those game breakers you're in worst off position that those that have. I also agree with you on Detroit, but you also have to keep in mind that Detroit is 1 team in 30 and they are the very best at it... not everyone can be a Detroit or else they wouldn't have gotten away with it for such a long time, snagging superstars with 5th, 7th round picks... Not everyone can afford to have a development program like Detroit, so the easiest solution is to pick top 3 and eventually a blind squirrel will find a nut perhaps many. |
JimmyMac
said:
 |
cullen's draft ranking first of all great rambling! something else. i read scott cullen's article as well, but the drop-off in the mid-round doesn't really make much sense from a stats perspective. i mean, if the best we can do is say number 10 is cursed that isn't really saying much at all. i think he failed to consider the organization drafting the players. it's easy to tank, draft great players and then eventually get better. very good organizations (detroit) have also proven that there's something to be said about drafting smart and spending time developing prospects. but what about those average, fringe teams that seem to hover around the middle? if you don't have the resources to funnel into your prospects then it should follow that they won't flourish like they would somewhere else. so maybe who's picking tenth matters more than who's picked? |
Ryan Ma
said:
|
Parenteau Yeah I think Parenteau will be highly sought after on July 1. Hudler could also be an interesting FA as well. Roy will be a bit more difficult since he's still under contract and you'd need something more than just money to pry him away. |
Corstyles
said:
|
Offer for Ryan Wayne Simmonds, Matt Read, Erik Gustaffson, 2013 first round pick...? |
5hole
said:
 |
Random thoughts I think P.A. Parenteau would be a good pick up for Carolina or Wsh Lining up with Staal or backs and Ovi. What about Hudler to Cgy and centering Iggy? Altho i think Derek Roy would be there best option i just dont think they have the assets to pull it off. Ott to buffalo could be good as well givng them some muscle and a C who can win some defensive szone faceoffs, that could possibly put roy in dallas (maybe Morrow, Ott + for Roy and Stafford?) I like your Edm for yandle deal, makes sense 2 other teams i think could go for him are TB (B.Connolly) or Anh (Ryan) seeing as Phi just got Shenn. thats all for now  |
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|
