Gagner

 

On Tuesday the first part of the new series was released, because I mistimed the trade deadline you’ll get a mid-week special as we’ll take a look at the second instalment of players who could find themselves on a new team come Feb. 27th. TSN has pretty good coverage of the Western Conference teams, but it probably lacks a bit of fantasy analysis, so I’ll borrow some of their thoughts, but add that extra dimension to gives you Dobberites a clearer picture.

 

Dallas


Much like most of the Western Conference teams, the Stars are still very much in the playoff hunt and should be buyers at the deadline barring a huge meltdown in the next 10 days.

 

Possible Movers


The Stars currently have seven rostered blue-liners which could lead to Sheldon Souray being moved at the deadline. His current stat-line of 18 points, a plus 11 rating, 59 PIMs and 132 SOG, isn’t all that impressive, but there is a latent offensive side to his game which most GMs are well aware of and could be willing to gamble for the playoffs.

 

Potential destination: Washington, Florida or Pittsburgh(?) could make sense.

 

The second and most interesting player that could be moved may be Stars’ captain, Brendan Morrow. He’s a proven leader with a reasonable cap-hit of $4.1 mil for next season, as well as owning 78-games of post-season experience, which could be invaluable come April and May. The only problem is if the Stars remain in contention they’d want a quality roster player back in return, and I don’t know if there are any teams out there who would be willing to pay that price.

 

Potential destination: Washington, Toronto, Rangers (Brad Richards connection?), or Flyers could make sense.

 

Possible Gainers


If Souray goes, then obviously there will be less competition on the blue-line in Big D, which means Trevor Daley and Stephane Robidas should receive a bit more ice-time. Philip Larsen or Adam Pardy should also find themselves as regulars.

 

If Morrow is gone, the most logical gainer would be Steve Ott, but it could filter through the rest of the team towards Loui Eriksson, Mike Ribeiro and Michael Ryder. When Morrow was sidelined with a neck/back injury at the end of January, Eriksson, Ribeiro and Ryder averaged 22:06, 20:55 and 19:42 per game respectively.

 

Detroit


After setting a new NHL record of the most consecutive wins on home ice, it’d be hard to argue that any changes are needed in Detroit to prepare for the playoff run. Look for them to only make small adjustments, if any, at the trade deadline.  Expect them to be buyers. The Wings have a quartet of potential UFA’s (Jiri Hudler, Todd Bertuzzi, Tomas Holmstrom and Nicklas Lidstrom), in the off-season, but they need to retain them for a playoff run, so none of them will be moved at the deadline.

 

Possible Movers


Mike Commodore could be the only mover, as he’s suited up for only 17 contests this campaign. Much like a few of the other defenders mentioned, the offensive numbers don’t look all that pretty, but it’s the 32 HITs and 19 BS in 17 contests (would have pro-rated to 154 HITs and 91 BS over the course of a full 82-game season), which could make him valuable.

 

Potential destination: Detroit would be silly to send Commodore to a Western rival, so look for them to send him over to the Eastern Conference to a team like the Sens, Devils or Isles.

 

Possible Gainers


Commodore was seldom used this season, so no one would really gain any value even if he departs the Motor City.

 

Edmonton


The Oilers are slated to miss the post-season for a sixth consecutive season, which means they’ll be big sellers at the deadline. They’re in a full rebuild mode, which could see a lot of their Vets. moved for younger pieces come Feb. 27th.

 

Possible Movers


The most internet banter has been generated by the possible movement of Ales Hemsky. With Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle and Taylor Hall running the show, it’s kind of left Hemsky on the wayside in terms of the Oilers’ future plans. One thing that you do have to keep in mind is that he is a career 0.79 point-per-gamer. If you look at the current, active right wings point-per-game table, Hemsky’s actually in amongst some pretty elite company.

 

Player

Point-Per-Game

Cap-Hit

Jaromir Jagr

1.24

$3.3 mil

Teemu Selanne

1.06

$4 mil

Daniel Alfredsson

0.96

$4.875 mil

Marian Hossa

0.92

$5.275 mil

Martin St. Louis

0.91

$5.625 mil

Jarome Iginla

0.90

$7 mil

Marian Gaborik

0.89

$7.5 mil

Milan Hejduk

0.82

$3 mil

Corey Perry

0.82

$5.325 mil

Rick Nash

0.81

$7.8 mil

Martin Havlat

0.81

$5 mil

Jason Pominville

0.80

$5.3 mil

Danny Briere

0.79

$6.5 mil

Ales Hemsky

0.79

$4.1 mil

 

The main drawback has always been Hemsky’s band-aid boy status, but could teams overlook that fact and snag themselves a bargain?

 

Potential destination: Pittsburgh (they moved Alex Goligoski for James Neal and Matt Niskanen last campaign), could they do something like Hemsky + Cam Barker for Simon Depres and a draft pick? Los Angeles could also be another destination.

 

A second interesting player that could be moved is veteran Ryan Smyth. The major problem is that he does possess a no movement clause, which means that he holds the power in all trade negotiations. Of course the Oilers could always do an under-the-table deal where they could promise to re-negotiate with him in the off-season and guaranteed that he’d finish his career in Edmonton. His leaderships skills could prove to be plenty helpful to a playoff team come April.

 

Potential destination: New Jersey, Ottawa or Toronto, with the last option making the most sense. There isn’t a lot of playoff experience in the TO locker room, so adding a veteran in the locker room could help stabilize the situation.

 

Sam Gagner would also be another interesting candidate to be moved at the trade deadline if the price is right. He caught the world’s attention two weeks ago when he posted a huge eight-point night, and has backed it up with seven points in the next six contests. The Oilers are in the driver’s seat in this situation. They won’t be forced to make a move, if the deal isn’t “just right”, keeping Gagner and letting him develop with the “kids” is certainly a viable option.

 

Possible Gainers


If the Oilers do ship out the old veterans, then the most obvious gainers would be the kids like Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Taylor Hall. Gagner could also receive an offensive boost if he isn’t moved. The quartet could see upwards of 20+ minutes per game once the roster settles. Magnus Paajarvi could also draw into the Oilers’ line up regularly.

 

Los Angeles


The Kings are sitting in eighth place in the Western Conference at the moment, but with five other teams [Calgary (2), Colorado(3), Dallas (4), Minnesota (6) and Anaheim(8)], within a stone’s throw of them, I don’t know if they have enough momentum (offensively), to get them past the line ahead of the rest. The next three contests (Calgary- Saturday, Phoenix – Tuesday and Colorado – Wednesday), will ultimately decide their path on deadline day, so consider them buyers or sellers.

 

Possible Movers


Dustin Penner is one of the worst caphit/point players in the entire league. It’s so bad that if you searched for it in Frozenpool, it won’t even register using the largest search parameters. He comes with a price tag of 327k per point, which made me laugh when I compared it to my annual salary. The positive for the Kings is that he is off their books at the end of the season, so the big question remains of whether or not he’ll garner enough interest for rival clubs to take a leap of faith on him on Feb. 27th.

 

Potential destination: Montreal (Land of the over-paid and underachievers)? A trio of Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta and Dustin Penner would operate at a caphit/point of just under 450k per point produced. Angus, Dobber and I would happily play for 100k per point and save them a bit some money.

 

Jarret Stoll currently leads the Kings and is ranked 16th overall in the entire league in terms of faceoff efficiency (55.5 percent). It’s also the 59.2 home faceoff winning percentage and SH prowess (averages 2:08 per contest), that could draw plenty of suitors come deadline day.

 

Potential destination: Playoff teams who are struggling on the dot would be the best fit. Calgary is at the league’s worst 45 percent, New Jersey is also atrocious at 46.7 percent and Philadelphia could certainly use an upgrade while operating at just 48.5 percent.

 

With Alec Martinez, Matt Greene and Rob Scuderi all playing“defensive” roles, keeping Willie Mitchell would be redundant. An NHL team doesn’t really have enough room to own four defensive blue-liners. Mitchell could find himself in a new home on Feb. 27th.

 

Potential destination: Washington, Florida, Boston, Toronto or Ottawa.

 

Possible Gainers


If Penner or Stoll go, Andrei Loktionov would receive a big boost in value. Newcomer Dwight King (29 points in 50 games with the Monarchs), could cement himself with the big club.

 

If Mitchell is moved, it would make sense that Slava Voynov would secure a top-four role with the Kings. That would give them a more typical three offensive d and the three defensive d set up that most teams are employing.

 

Minnesota


With the Wild right in the thick of things, they should be buyers at the deadline. The major problem is that they’re in a similar situation as Colorado, where they don’t possess a lot of attractive pieces that could be moved in order to land a “big fish”. So look for them to make just minor tweaks.

 

Possible Movers


With a couple of defensive D (Hal Gill and Nicklas Grossman), moving in the last week, the most logical mover would be Greg Zanon. If you compare his defensive stats (1.79 HITs and 2.68 BS), to Gill’s (0.91 HITs and 2.30 BS), and Grossman’s (1.85 HITs and 1.92 BS), you could draw very similar comparisons. So look for another second-round pick to go back the other way.

 

Potential destination: Washington, Florida, Boston, Toronto or Ottawa.

 

If you missed this column the other day, definitely take a gander. Marek Zidlicky seems to be much more of a detriment to the Wild line up than it is benefitting them. The latest rumour has him waiving his NMC to the Devils. The Devils are desperate for a puck moving D, which would make Zidlicky going to Jersey a marriage made in heaven.

 

Potential destination: New Jersey!

 

A third mover might be goalie Josh Harding. I would argue that Harding is one of the premiere backup tenders in the league. He’s very much built in a similar manner to Johan Hedberg or Scott Clemmensen (someone who could come in and start 20-30 game while posting decent stats). His injury-proneness prevents him from ever becoming a full-time 60+ game NHL starter, which makes him perfect for a number two role. Plus, they have youngster Matt Hackett who is NHL ready and doesn’t have much seasoning left to do in the minors.

 

Potential destination: Tampa Bay, Ottawa, Los Angeles (if they move Jonathan Bernier), Buffalo (if they move Ryan Miller), or Edmonton (if they move Nikolai Khabibulin).

 

Possible Gainers


If Zanon and/or Zidlicky go, then Nate Prosser and Jared Spurgeon should see a big boost in fantasy value. Justin Schultz should receive a small boost, but probably not enough to be fantasy worthy.

 

If Harding is moved, Hackett should get an immediate recall from the Aeros.

 

Questions or comments? As always I’ll discuss them in the section below.

 

The last instalment of the series will be posted on Tuesday.

 

Should you be so inclined, follow me on Twitter if you think that my article/posts are useful.


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Comments (4)add comment

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
Khabi I thought about that too, but the thing is whether or not there's a market for a 39-year old with a cap hit of $3.75 mil?

Also Khabi's stats isn't very attractive, since joining the Oilers he's appeared in 98 games, 29-57-11(29.6 win percentage), with a 3.05 GAA and .902 SP. So I mean you need to take a look at that and think why would a team want to take a gamble on Khabi. I also went through the list of NHL teams who are looking for a goalie and there really isn't that many...

Maybe Washington (but I'd prefer Vokoun over Khabi any day), Toronto, Columbus, Jersey (if Brodeur retires), TB, Chicago, Isles (if Nabby is gone and RDP is still hurt)... So I mean there isn't really a lot of clear cut options...

They might be able to move him in the summer, but I don't think there will be a lot of teams seeking an under-performing goalie at the deadline. At least they won't be willing to pay a high price in order to land him. Maybe a 4th round pick or higher...

With that said, if hockey GMs are astute at digging stuff up, they might realize this...

Khabi is a monster during contract years...

1998-99: Phoenix: 32-23-7, 8 SO, 2.13 GAA and .923 SP
2003-04: TB: 28-19-7, 3 SO, 2.33 GAA and .910 SP
2008-09: Chicago: 25-8-7, 3 SO, 2.33 GAA and .919 SP
2012-13: ?

Contract year stats: 85-50-21, 14 SO, 2.25 GAA and .918 SP
Non-contract year stats: 243-292-93, 31 SO, 2.84 GAA and .905 SP

So if they're good at identifying and taking advantage of trends, it might not be a bad idea for Stevie Y to "buy low" on Khabi in the off-season, since he's played for TB a few years back, and have him tear it up on a contract year.
February 18, 2012
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
Kings/Dallas/Minny Yeah I dunno with all those teams, it's just too close to call, so I just had to make a judgement call... I wrote this on Thursday night, and with the loss in today's game, Minny probably will be sellers at the deadline, but with that said, if they beat Bos, Fla and Dallas, boom they'd be right back into buyers again... They're only 6 points back, and if they did some crazy trade to end up snagging Parise or something, they'd become a playoff team IMO. The other dimension I looked at as well was available cap space. Minny has around $36 mil to shop with if they wanted to go up to the cap ceiling.

Same kinda deal with Dallas. They're only 4 points out with a game in hand against the Kings. Yeah they could sell Souray and Morrow, but they aren't forced to really... So they don't really have that many pieces to really "sell", which is another factor that I kinda lent towards the buy side. Of course the last fact was cap space they have a whopping $67 mil to shop with, obviously they won't because they can't afford to do so, but it's there...

For LA, it's exactly as you said, they have more pieces to "sell" than the other two. Also you kinda hit it right on the head about my thoughts. The thing is LA is in a playoff spot now, so if they fall out of it. The media and us will go down the "what a collapse" route... where's as if Minny or Dallas get in, we'll take the "well they played well down the stretch route". So there's much more pressure on LA to get it right than for Dallas and Minny to get it right. They have the "well no one thought we would make it anyway excuse to fall back on"... LA doesn't. They've also got more attractive pieces to move as well. Stoll is arguably one of the best faceoff men in the league. Mitchell is a great defensive D, so teams would be looking to pick those guys up much more than a Zanon or Morrow... And of course the cap problem. LA has $3 mil to spend, which is much less than the other 2 teams. Even if they wanted to go shopping they can't! The biggest thing they need to do is to get rid of Penner's albatross contract.

I don’t know if they have enough momentum (offensively), to get them past the line ahead of the rest.

This was another big factor for me too. They're 30th in the league in terms of offense while owning the 3rd highest payroll... I'm sorry you don't pay that type of money to have your best offensive players play defense... I can understand the Yotes with the 8th lowest payroll putting an emphasis on D, the Preds with the 3rd lowest payroll putting an emphasis on D, or the Blues with the 9th lowest payroll putting an emphasis on D.

Look at this picture and tell me what doesn't belong?
Vancouver, Calgary, LA, Philly, Buffalo, Washington, Toronto, Columbus, Rangers, Sharks, Devils, Pens, TB, Boston...
February 18, 2012
Votes: +0

frozenpools said:

frozenpools
Oilers One would think the first player they try to move is Khabby
February 18, 2012
Votes: +0

CommittedToTheIndian said:

CommittedToTheIndian
Kings Dallas and Minnesota are currently out of the playoffs but will be buyers, while LA is in the playoffs, has a stud (series-stealing?) goalie in Quick and a valuable trade chip in Bernier but is only on the buyer/seller fence. I don't follow that thinking.
February 18, 2012
Votes: +0
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