| January 16, 2012 | Tweet |
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| Written by Dobber | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Monday, 16 January 2012 01:41 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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My Midseason Guide was released January 6 and then an addendum was added Friday the 13th, get it here. If you want to see how great the guide is, you can pick up last year’s edition for free here.
Breaking News: Jamie Benn underwent an emergency appendectomy. He is out for 10-14 days. I just quickly benched him one minute before the deadline (unfortunately I'm stuck playing Berglund now though). This came across at about 9pm last night. That's what I get for catching up on three days of news on my newsfeed...but stopping at around 8pm!
The word on Mikko Koivu is 4-6 weeks.
Tom Gulitti is reporting that Henrique is probably out for next game and that Zubrus is now centering the big line.
Why on earth should Steve Tambellini be fired? Other than the goaltending situation, there is not one thing that he has done (or not done) that I wouldn’t do. And I’m brilliant. And why in the hell should he tackle the goaltending situation? To squeak into the playoffs and lose in the first round? This team is being built to become a long-term winner. The Sharks didn’t build this 10-year success (or however long it’s been now) without first being one of the worst franchises in the league for what seemed like forever. Chicago and Pittsburgh – they were horrible for a very long time. Even Detroit, if you go back over 20 years, had nearly a decade of crap. But once the winning starts, I assure you, it will continue for years. Probably not as long as Detroit – because that organization has been utterly perfect. But certainly 10 years. Anyway, stay the course Oilers fans. I love watching this team – my favorite games to watch. And the winning will start next year. And that’s when you worry about the goaltending. As I’m sure Tambellini will.
Islanders fans – same with you guys. One more year, hang in there. How long can you get the top pick in the draft before you stop sucking and starting winning? Not long now.
So I’m writing my THN column yesterday while watching the Pens and the Lightning. It’s 2-0 after two and I shut it off and go do other things for an hour or two. I come back to check the final score – 6-3 and Malkin had four points in the third period! Did I mention that I put money on Malkin to win the scoring title? I don’t think coming back and checking on the results of the one period that you missed could ever feel so good.
From the pages of “Dump Him” – Mike Green. If he gets five more points this season I’ll call this site “GreenerHockey”. I’ll be surprised if he plays again this campaign. I’m not ruling out the playoffs, however. But the Caps would be wise to just heal this thing properly, do whatever it takes – and then do it again. You’ve got three months until the second season, so take advantage.
Craig Smith missed Saturday’s game with the flu. His four games prior to that, in order, saw ice time of 13:26, 11:28, 10:36 and 9:39. So when a ‘scratch’ followed that run, I figured the run was over for this year. Still a great player with a bright future, but the slowdown is official. But this news that he was sick, and perhaps played through the illness in the game prior, lends some hope. I’ll be watching the ice time next game, assuming he returns.
Adam Henrique is another rookie who missed the last game. So Saturday – Hopkins, Henrique and Smith all missed time. Throw Matt Read in there and we’d have all the favorites. Henrique missed with a strained groin. Day-to-day, so it may be a couple more games before we see him back in the lineup. Last game he played 21:12, which was his third highest of the year.
Buffalo rookie Brayden McNabb suffered a concussion Friday that caused him to miss Saturday’s contest. I don’t know how many more injuries to Buffalo’s blue line it will take to get them to give their playoff leading scorer more than 11 minutes of hockey, but apparently “three” isn’t enough. With Sekera, Ehrhoff and McNabb all out, Gragnani still only saw 10:39.
I’m not a person who buys in 100% with the “tools” that NHL scouts use as Gospel. Skating, smarts, stickhandling, shooting – but there are also intangibles. These intangibles are the reason Jason Allison got 95 points in a season. Or why Luc Robitaille had a Hall-of-Fame career. There is a reason why a prospect puts up big points at every level, despite missing a tool or even two. Or being such a bad player in one area that it makes scouts and fans wince. There is a reason. And if the results are there, that needs to be factored in. Gragnani – give him four games, 20 minutes a game and ALL the PP ice time and I guarantee you that he’ll get three points and be a plus player. If not – if the ‘results’ are not there – then demote him. But pile on the responsibility and see what happens. If you give him 10 minutes, then you are wasting his time, your time and everyone else’s time. Too many good players do not get a fair shot because they “lack mobility” or they “can’t skate” or what-have-you. Am I the only one to see Moneyball?
By the way, if you haven’t seen Moneyball. Do so. Tonight. If you read my ramblings, then I already know you’ll love Moneyball. And scouts and members of the ‘old boy’s club’ who poo-poo the theory completely can go hang out with the other dinosaurs at the museum.
Mikko Koivu left Saturday’s contest with an apparent shoulder injury and Matt Cullen took his spot on the top line. Cullen scored and saw nearly 24 minutes of ice time. A season high. Makes a great pick-up during Koivu’s absence.
Alex Steen could be back from his concussion in a week.
Here are the league leaders in Even-Strength Points, who have four PP points or less: Player Team ES P Brad Marchand BOS 28 Nick Foligno OTT 27 Alexandre Burrows VAN 25 Pascal Dupuis PIT 24 Bobby Ryan ANA 23 Tuomo Ruutu CAR 22 Saku Koivu ANA 21 Matt Cullen MIN 21 Chris Kelly BOS 20 Petr Sykora NJD 20 Alexander Steen STL 20 Artem Anisimov NYR 19 Jordin Tootoo NSH 19 Zack Smith OTT 18 Brandon Dubinsky NYR 18 Todd Bertuzzi DET 18 Teddy Purcell TBL 18 Troy Brouwer WSH 18 Tim Connolly TOR 18 Sergei Kostitsyn NSH 18 Michael Grabner NYI 17 Danny Cleary DET 17 Lee Stempniak CGY 17 Tyler Kennedy PIT 17 Luke Adam BUF 17 Kyle Okposo NYI 17 Andrew Ladd WPG 17 Ryan McDonagh NYR 16 Patrik Berglund STL 16 Chris Stewart STL 16 Gabriel Landeskog COL 16 Andrej Meszaros PHI 15 Andrei Kostitsyn MTL 15 Ryan Jones EDM 15 Daymond Langkow PHX 15 Patric Hornqvist NSH 15 Jordan Staal PIT 15 Steve Ott DAL 15 Oliver Ekman-Larsson PHX 15 Zach Bogosian WPG 15
Your classic ‘buy low’ and ‘sell high’ from Ryan Ma in our Expert’s League. He gave up Taylor Hall, Joffrey Lupul and Nicklas Lidstrom to Marty Kwiaton. Lidstrom is almost certain to slow down, as he did last year… and Lupul is, to me, a high risk for injury. He’s dodged the bullet so far, but just playing the odds here. Hall may have some short-term struggles while his linemates heal up. Meanwhile, Ma acquires Joe Pavelski – he of the team that has played the fewest games in the league…. Plus Martin St. Louis – almost unanimous among experts for a strong second half… and Zach Bogosian. On the surface, it’s an even swap. And if things continue as they are, perhaps Marty takes this one (don’t want to slag on ya buddy, so I’ll leave some room for giving you the benefit of the doubt). But I think Ma is playing the odds and expectations properly. In the end, a lot will hinge on Lupul’s health, and would you put money on that?
Jeff Skinner played 17:23 in his return to action, but was pointless with one shot.
Tomas Vokoun has won three in a row and has stopped 101 of 105 shots in that span. That’s what the Caps signed up for when they signed him. Welcome back!
The Pacioretty-Desharnais-Cole line combined for nine points Sunday. Pac seems to be heating up, that’s points in two straight and six in five games.
Bobby Ryan has 11 points in his last 10 games.
Monday Studs and Duds here. Sunday's was here.
Lecavalier punching Malkin:
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Comments (36)
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Chris
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... @Dobber Marincin has stalled a bit and is most likely 4 years away. Kefblom is 2 years away. Musil is a shutdown defenseman about 4 years away. Heskerth is a total bust and mentioning him as a prospect just shows how pathetic the Oilers pipeline in the near future (2-3 years) really is. Once these defensemen finally break into the big league, it will take them another 2-3 years before they are effective at the NHL game. |
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Chris
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No shit... No shit Tambellini should have listened to his head scout (which should be given full marks for the Oilers drafting, not Tambellini) and picked Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle. The point is Tambellini has done NOTHING to put a defense together. He knew he was going to get those kids then why not make a trade to obtain 2-3 high potential defensemen furhter along in development? If this rebuild is going to work, it needs this part of it. The longer he waits to obtain the blueliners to match his emerging forwards, the more it is going to cost. Fire the moron. |
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SeaDawg
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@ Mr Sausage I wholeheartedly agree with you. In hindsight it is easy to say that the Oilers should have grabbed Ellis, who imo was the one player I sort of wanted them to take at the time, but I certainly wasn't disappointed that they took Paajarvi, who I felt was a bit of a steal at that point considering all the hype around him at the time. By no means have I written off Paajarvi, but of the 4 young guns on the Oilers he is the one guy who hasn't panned out (yet). |
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Mr Sausage
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Drafting The Oilers drafting is almost like a classic case of how do you draft. Do you draft what the team needs or do you draft the best possible player in the draft? I'm in the camp of drafting the best possible player that is out there. I can see maybe an Ellis over MPS but at the time of the draft I did not here any uproar where the Oil took MPS. |
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SeaDawg
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@Karl I'm sure the Capitals would fall all over themselves to trade Carlson to the Oilers if the others were offering Eberle (which they would never do). I get your point that the Oilers need a dman, but they can't be faulted in the least for taking RNH, Eberle, or Hall. I'd argue if anything that they should have taken Ellis, Kulikov, or Leddy instead of Paajarvi. |
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Karl
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Edmonton's lack of Defense While it is true that Hopkins, Hall, Eberle, and Paajarvi are all special players. To say that Edmonton should not in at least one of those drafts have taken a defensemen in the first round is in my opinion a mistake. Eberle is a great player no doubt, but give me John Carlson any day. In the NHL there are two things you can't win without, strength up the middle and quality defensemen. |
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Chris Bieniek
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Re: Gragnani Those real time stats like hits, blocks, giveaways, takeaways have been shown to be inaccurate depending on who is tallying them. I am from Buffalo and watch nearly all the games, it could only be 29 giveaways/game that he has but the multiple ones I've seen in games and resulting in goals adds that much more effect to it. I would not lose sleep if he was in the AHL |
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Larry
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... Im not ready to put Tambellini in the Sam Pollock category- but it will be a few years yet before we can truly judge the job he's done drafting. I can see Chris' standpoint- dmen and goalies take longer to develop,but can you blame him for taking Hall or Hopkins? While I would give Tambs an incomplete on the drafting side of his job, in the trading and FA signing- he hasnt shined. 1 mediocre goalie prospect (Roy) until adding Perhonen this year (neither A+ prospects)wont do when youre starter is pushing 40yrs old. If he is able to turn Hemsky into something with some major upside- and sign/trade for a younger true #1 goalie (Harding,Bernier,Schneider,Rask) then I can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Lets face it, the Oil had a long way to go. Lecavalier wont recieve any discipline from Shanaban, I wouldnt have minded a fine- gutless act by Vinnie. A bigger 'story' according to TSN anyways is Subban supposedly spitting at Del Zotto- only no one outside of the media noticed it. The camera angle makes it look like something, when in fact Im sure its nothing. No magic loogie here,more like TSN looking for controversy and Subban is a magnet for that(much like CBC vs Burrows), but when you look at some of the dirt being thrown his way- you wonder if its just because hes an immature free spirit- or something else.... |
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Buffalo87
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Re: Gragnani Dobber - I fully respect your opinion, but Gragnani was handed the keys to the #1 PP unit from game 1. Ehrhoff was the trigger man and Gragnani was running it. I'm not going to look through every single game but here are his PP ice-time listing (and ranking among dmen) for the first few games: 3:13 (1st) 2:51 (1st) 7:07 (2nd) 1:11 (T-1st) 0:49 (4th) 2:25 (3rd) 3:47 (1st) 2:34 (2nd) 1:42 (2nd) 4:58 (2nd) He was on the #1 unit for each and every one of those games. The only guy to consistently rival him is Ehrhoff. He was given every opportunity to succeed, Ruff fed him a lot of top PP time and gave him easy minutes at even strength. He simply pissed away his opportunity. Thats not to say that he can't rebound at some point, but he was given way more than his fair share of chances and he simply did not cash in. |
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SeaDawg
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Gragnani Gragnani is being jerked around a bit and not being sent to the AHL because if he doesn't play 65 NHL games this season he becomes a UFA at the end of the year. He should be in the AHL because they aren't using him properly in the NHL, but I guess they don't want to lose him for nothing. I fully expect him to be dealt soon. |
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Buffalo87
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Gragnani Gragnani was given every opportunity in the world to prove his worth early in the year and he failed pretty miserably. He only played fewer than 15 minutes once through all of November and December, including topping 20 minutes five times. Gragnani was gifted-wrapped the #1 PP QB job from day 1 and kept it until he essentially forced Ruff to take him off the #1 unit because he wasn't getting the job done. He's still 2nd in dman PP time on Buffalo, only behind Ehrhoff. This demotion in TOI was long, long overdue. Ruff gave him absolutely every chance (and way more than he should have) but Gragnani failed to seize the opportunity. I'm talking over a 25 game span as well so it was not a short-live 3 or 4 game span. Bottom line, I was really excited for him coming into this year but he has not earned any of the ice-time he was afforded by Ruff. He was given even more opportunities than he should have and did not take advantage of it. |
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Big Ev
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Oilers "the winning will start next year". haha, when I have heard that before? Tambellini doesn't have a plan for this team. Time to go. |
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steve laidlaw
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Re:Gragnani Fact: Gragnani does not average like four bad give-aways per night. He averages less than one give-away per night. He has 29 give-aways in 38 games this season. That's not good but it's not as bad as was exaggeratedly expressed. If I were to offer a criticism it would be Gragnani's pitiful 29-8 give-away/take-away ratio. |
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Chris Bieniek
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Gragnani Have you seen Gragnani play? He is more of a liability than an asset. He averages like 4 HORRIBLE giveaways per game. |
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duducks
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Malkin/Lecav Lecavalier was after Malkin for a few shifts, and tried to draw him into a fight earlier. You can't just look at the one hit and following scuffle. I hope Shanny doesn't get involved here. Vinny got the penalty he deserved, and it should there. |
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Mathieu Houle
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Where is Myers. @Dobber I can't find Tyler Myers on the 3 year peaks in your mid-season guide. He's that bad ? |
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steve laidlaw
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... Diffusion - Every MLB team is now using the sort of sabermetric analysis that Beane used to find value. The general idea outlined in Moneyball the film is that Beane and DePodesta used on base percentage to identify undervalued guys. Now every team looks at OBP and it has actually become a stat that is overvalued. One of the mistakes that Beane has made in recent years and it is one of the things they do not really focus on in the movie is the fact that what made those Oakland teams truly successful was their loaded young starting pitching as well as young sluggers in Miguel Tejada and Eric Chavez that they had on the roster. OBP was merely useful because it was a stat other teams ignored so it allowed the A’s to find cheap veterans to round out their roster. The key to winning was still their young players. In the game today teams must still use advanced analysis to identify undervalued talent but OBP is no longer that stat used. A recent example of a team using Moneyball tactics to succeed is the Tampa Bay Rays. They have used excellent scouting and development to load their system with young talent at prime positions like Starting Pitcher, Shortstop, and Centerfield so that they have a constant influx of high end talent at these positions. They then use the ubiquity of talent at positions like Reliever and First Base to acquire cheap but effective talent to fill out the roster. They also use advanced stats like Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to quantify talent. Basically, if they can add a 5 WAR guy for half the price of a 6 WAR guy then they will do so. WAR measures everything from batting to fielding to determine how many more wins a player would yield you over a replacement level minor league type player over the course of a 162 game season. It is not perfect but it adds up. Pretty much all teams are using this stuff to varying degrees. As far as NHL goes, advanced stats are most definitely used to varying degrees throughout the league. That is why you see some teams really focusing on line matching and other ones focused on zone starts. One team that it is pretty well known to use advanced stats is the San Jose Sharks. You can really see this in the way they have pretty much two centermen on every single line, particularly on the power play. They realize the importance of possession so they will put multiple centermen on the ice so they can get the ideal faceoff match up for the situation and can still have a capable draw winner on the ice if the first guy gets waved out. That is why the Sharks signed Michal Handzus this summer despite already boasting Thornton, Marleau, Pavelski, Couture and Mitchell as effective draw takers. The point though, is that advanced metrics are simply one of the tools. You still have to acquire high end talent to be a winner and that still comes from effective drafting and development. |
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SeaDawg
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@Diffusion Yeah, I know what Malkin did wasn't exactly the same as what Marchand did. I don't really know if Marchand "threw" Salo head over heals as much as Salo's momentum made him go head over heals. I think Marchand came in a bit low and sort of hip-checked Salo when Salo was coming in for the hit. That said, there were a lot of people who were saying that Marchand should have stood up and just taken the hit and not ducked under the hit, which in itself may not be an illegal play but is one of those unwritten rules in hockey. I just find it a bit odd that when Malkin ducks a hit, no one is saying that he should have stood up and taken the hit. I'm not defending Lecavalier, but I think the reason the scrum happened and the reason Lecavalier was so upset with Malkin is because Malkin ducked the hit and we just saw with the Marchand/Salo incident how dangerous that can be and I believe Vinny took exception to that play by Malkin. Just odd that no one is talking about that. |
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steve laidlaw
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Moneyball Fun fact about Moneyball: The character portrayed by Jonah Hill, Peter Brand, was actually Paul DePodesta, a former Division One football and baseball player at Harvard who went on to play in the CFL before working as an advanced scout for the Indians. It seems pretty obvious that they wanted to make the focus on the numbers so they changed the character to make him seem like more of a nerd who knew little about physical player analysis. Still a great flick though! |
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Diffusion
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Moneyball + Seadawg Moneyball is great, I wonder if / how many teams are starting to adopt this talent analysis. There are a couple sites that do this for hockey already and have made their own key stats to follow. @Seadawg Malkin did not duck and thrown him head over heels. Not the same thing at all. All Malkin did was avoid the hit. |
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Anthony Lancione (Messierforlife)
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Expert Trade #2 Nice set of deals Ryan! Was particularly a pleasure doing business with you on the 2nd one! Lecavs and Kunits will certainly spread out your scoring a bit, and Kunitz will likely continue to ride the coattails of an increasingly hot Evgeni Malkin. Meanwhile, from my standpoint, I simply needed that elite level goal scorer, as goalscoring is the one area that I have a huge opportunity for improvement in the experts pool; to hopefully give me that nice little boost back to top spot. End of the day, I've been top 3 all season, and runner up for much of the past 2 months, with a couple cups off coffee in first place. So its arguable why there was even a reason in the first place for me to bother with the shake-up when as of today I'm only 0.5 pts out of 1st. However, I feel I needed to make a move for 1 more top end elite forward(Toews)from a top-heavy offensive squad(Hawks)to crystalize my scoring. That being said, I like Vinny to keep up his heightened level fo play from the past couple months, so I see this as a likely win-win for both of us. |
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R
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Marty Why is Marty expected to have a strong second half? Playing with Vinny Lecavalier and Teddy Purcell? No PMD in Tampa and a boring system at 36 years old? I'm having a hard time believing that Marty will post PPG from Feb-March. |
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Chris
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Why Tambellini is rebuilding ass-backwards.... You can NOT compare the Oilers rebuild to any fully successful rebuild completed for one big time glaring reason that any hockey fan should know... the defense needs to be built beofre the forwards start emerging. This is not the case with the Oilers. This is an Islanders type rebuild, not a Blackhawks type one. The Balckhawks had Keith and Seabrook developed and added to that via trade or FA along with Kane and Toews and won a cup. The Pens had (a helathy) Whitney and added to that along with Crosby and Malkin and won a cup. The Capitals had Green and didn't add to that properly along with Ovechkin and Backstrom and have fallen short. The Oilers have no great young defensemen (don't even try, they are all longshots or too far away to make a difference in 3-4 years) along with Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, and Hall and will falter like the Islanders because of this. |
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Sheepish
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Koivu He is going to be out at least a month with a shoulder injury. So long All-Star game. It would have been his first. |
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Ryan Ma
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Moneyball Just watched it on your recommendation, fantastic movie! I'm Dobberhockey's Jonah Hill!!! |
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SeaDawg
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Malkin vs Lecavalier Why is no one talking about what Malkin did to lead to Vinny punching him? He ducked out of the way of a hit, just like Marchand did the other day. Not saying Vinny shouldn't get in trouble for the punch. I'm just surprised no one is talking about Malkin ducking the hit, given all the commotion after Marchand's incident. |
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Lukasz
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Ducks I expected some more ramblings about Ducks-Canucks game, since the Ducks sort of dominated their rivals . 5-0-1 in last 6 games. I don't remember the exact numbers, but Ducks feed has shown that Ducks allowed ~31 SA/G in the first 38 games of the season. In the last 6 games they allowed only ~23 SA/G. They finally managed to really cut all of those turnovers they were making every game. Canucks managed only 12 shots on goal during 1st and 2nd period combined yesterday. After scoring 2.3 GF/G in the first 38 games, the Ducks scored 25 goals in last 6 games (and that includes beeing shut-out by Flames). Also, Ducks are 7-2-1 this season with Jason Blake in the lineup. Having a few more veterans in the lineup really makes the difference (Blake, Hagman, Pelley vs Macenauer, McMillan and one of the other kids). And something Justin mentioned on twitter. Groin injury and a couple of days of mental break really did wonders for Hiller. He's playing his best hockey of the season right now. |
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Ryan Ma
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Expert Trade hahaha you caught me... I am playing the odds... I was trying to buy Pavelski for the extra games (Ma Law #10), plus I have Thornton and Boyle, so I was trying to get that combo ready for the stretch run... I think the deal kicker for me is going to be St. Louis... I also acquired Lecavalier and Kunitz for Toews on the weekend as well, so I was trying to unite that combo for the stretch run as well. I'm banking on the fact that TB is a much better team at home than on the road. St. Louis 17 points (PPG) and 47 SOG (2.76) in 17 home games, Lecavalier 19 points (PPG) and 53 SOG (2.79) in 19 home games. I wrote about it in a forum post here http://www.dobberhockey.com/in...p&t=123857 22 of the remaining 38 in St. Pete Times Forum, where they average 3.42 goals per game. Now let's see if it pays off for me. |
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mounD
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Rabbit Punch I wonder if Shanny will have anything to say about Lecavalier pulling a Floyd Mayweather on Malkin, which you can clearly see from the video replay. |
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Mr Sausage
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Oilers/Lecalvalier Couldn't agree more with you Dobber about Tambellini. Let' also not forget he had a debacle to clean up after Kevin Lowe left the GM spot. That can't happen over night. What a punk Lecalvalier is. Hope he gets 2 games for being a sucker punch wuss. That was complete bush league. |
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