lkj

 

There have been three coaching terminations in the Western Conference so far this campaign, with two of them having enough evidence to quantitatively analyse the results. This week I’ll break down the winners and losers from each of the moves to help give you poolies an edge in your leagues.

 

 

Stats

Pre-Hitch

Under-Hitch

Status

Record

6-7-0

13-2-4

↑↑

Goals For

2.46

2.63

Goals Allowed

2.69

1.79

↓↓

SOG For

30.8

30.2

=

SOG Allowed

26.2

26.2

=

PIMs per game

11

12.2

PK percentage

73.8

85.3

PP percentage

7.5

13.0

↑↑

HITs per game

20.4

23.3

FO win per game

30.2

26.7

Giveaways per game

7.1

3.6

↓↓

Takeaways per game

5.3

6.2

BS per game

15

11.9

 

The most obvious improvement is in the overall record. The Blues have gone from a 500 team, to a team that wins close to 70 percent of their contests. That’s probably a bit too high to maintain for the duration of the season, but somewhere around 60 percent mark seems logical. Three factors really jump out at me in the table above. First, the stingy defense continues to earn plenty of victories. Secondly, the PP efficiency has vastly improved to a respectable 13 percent and the third factor is the noticeable decrease in giveaways.

 

Name

Point-Per-Game Pre-Hitch

Point-Per-Game Under-Hitch

Status

T.J. Oshie

0.62

0.79

↑↑

David Backes

0.54

0.74

↑↑

Alex Steen

0.69

0.68

=

Jason Arnott

0.62

0.44

Kevin Shattenkirk

0.54

0.56

=

Matt D’Agostini

0.46

0.32

Alex Pietrangelo

0.46

0.22

↓↓

Jamie Langenbrunner

0.38

0.37

=

Patrik Berglund

0.38

0.42

=

Vladimir Sobotka

0.38

0.36

=

Chris Stewart

0.23

0.50

↑↑

Carlo Colaiacovo

0.38

0.55


There have been few prominent changes in terms of point production since Hitchcock has taken over the coaching duties in St. Louis. Most notably, both Oshie and Backes have had serious offensive boosts to their numbers, as both are tallying right around three points every four contests. Stewart has also seen a nice increase, but at a production rate of just a point in every two contests, it isn’t exactly enough to deem him roster worthy. Colaiacovo is definitely a blue-liner that bears watching, as he’s quietly put up six points in his last 11 contests.

 

Name

SOG Pre-Hitch

SOG Under-Hitch

Status

T.J. Oshie

1.46

2.84

↑↑

David Backes

2.69

2.84

Alex Steen

3.00

3.21

Jason Arnott

2.23

1.83

Kevin Shattenkirk

1.69

1.78

=

Matt D’Agostini

2.31

1.63

Alex Pietrangelo

2.38

2.22

Jamie Langenbrunner

1.85

1.79

=

Patrik Berglund

2.23

2.16

=

Vladimir Sobotka

1.38

1.57

Chris Stewart

3.08

1.31

↓↓↓

Carlo Colaiacovo

0.63

1.36

↑↑

 

It’s a similar story here in terms of SOG. Oshie has seen his SOG totals nearly double since Hitch has taken over. Interestingly, Stewart has seen his SOG totals plummet, but contrary to popular belief, his point totals have actually increased, which leaves me scratching my head. Colaiacovo has also seen a large increase in SOG as well, which might explain why he’s enjoying a sudden boost to his point totals.

 

Name

TOI Pre-Hitch

TOI Under-Hitch

Status

T.J. Oshie

18:05

19:53

David Backes

18:02

20:39

↑↑

Alex Steen

18:41

19:55

Jason Arnott

15:34

14:09

↓↓

Kevin Shattenkirk

20:25

21:45

Matt D’Agostini

14:48

15:18

Alex Pietrangelo

24:10

23:58

=

Jamie Langenbrunner

15:38

14:08

Patrik Berglund

16:55

18:05

Vladimir Sobotka

16:12

15:56

=

Chris Stewart

17:33

15:17

↓↓

Carlo Colaiacovo

17:58

17:31

=

 

It appears that the trio of Oshie, Backes and Steen have earned Hitchcock’s trust, as all three are averaging close to 20 mins of TOI per contest. Berglund has also seen a notable increase of nearly a minute more per game since the changeover. Stewart has taken a huge hit, dropping more than two minutes per game since Nov. 7th.

 

Name

PP TOI Pre-Hitch

PP TOI Under-Hitch

Status

T.J. Oshie

2:05

2:27

=

David Backes

1:56

2:35

Alex Steen

2:13

2:53

Jason Arnott

1:38

2:31

↑↑

Kevin Shattenkirk

2:54

3:04

=

Matt D’Agostini

1:41

1:56

=

Alex Pietrangelo

2:29

2:46

=

Jamie Langenbrunner

0:33

1:13

Patrik Berglund

2:30

2:15

=

Vladimir Sobotka

0:44

0:51

=

Chris Stewart

2:22

1:43

Carlo Colaiacovo

1:21

1:58

 

The Blues are very unique in terms of how they spread their PP TOI amongst their top players. They have 12 players that average close to or above the one minute mark for each game on the PP. Maybe that’s one of the main reasons why they’re ranked dead last in terms of power-play efficiency? With that amount of limited ice-time, it just doesn’t allow the PP units to develop enough chemistry when they’re barely on the ice together. Shattenkirk continues to garner the most PP ice-time amongst the Blues, which wouldn’t be surprising to see him maintain his point production pace from here on out.

 

Stats

Pre-Boudreau

Under-Boudreau

Status

Record

7-13-4

2-6-1

=

Goals For

2.25

2.67

Goals Allowed

3.21

3.67

↓↓

SOG For

25.4

25.9

=

SOG Allowed

29.8

31.3

PIMs per game

12.8

13.1

=

PK percentage

85.7

68.8

↓↓

PP percentage

15.6

23.1

↑↑

HITs per game

21.5

25.2

FO win per game

25.2

25.4

=

Giveaways per game

7.24

7.7

Takeaways per game

4.56

5.2

BS per game

12.7

12.4

=

 

Pretty much status quo in Disneyland! The changes in Anaheim haven’t been as dramatic or noticeable as the changes in St. Louis. The offense has slightly improved, as they’re at least averaging over two and a half goals a game, but the real problem is that they’re giving up nearly four. That can possibly be attributed to the PK, as it has been horrendous since Boudreau has taken over. It’s operating at less than 70 percent during the last nine contests, which isn’t surprising to see them concede greater than three and a half goals a game. The PP is connecting on nearly a quarter of their opportunities, which is at least an optimistic point for poolies.

Name

Point-Per-Game Pre-Boudreau

Point-Per-Game Under-Boudreau

Status

Teemu Selanne

0.92

1.44

↑↑

Corey Perry

0.88

0.89

=

Ryan Getzlaf

0.79

0.67

Cam Fowler

0.50

0.33

Bobby Ryan

0.50

0.56

=

Niklas Hagman

NA

0.56

=

Saku Koivu

0.46

1.00

Kyle Palmieri

NA

0.40

=

Andrew Cogliano

0.38

0.11

↓↓

Francois Beauchemin

0.38

0.22

Toni Lydman

0.32

0.00

↓↓

Luca Sbisa

0.25

0.00

↓↓

Lubomir Visnovsky

0.25

0.75

↑↑

Devante Smith-Pelly

0.14

0.50

 

The Finnish Flash has taken his scoring to another level since BB has taken over. If he can avoid the injury bug, he could very well be on his way to a second consecutive point-per-game season. Vissy has played well since his return to the line-up from a broken finger. Three points every four games is certainly a pace that he could maintain given his role on the team. Fowler’s fantasy value is dramatically dropping. If you can still salvage decent trade value for him in one-year leagues, now might be a great time to take advantage of that opportunity.

 

Name

SOG-Per-Game Pre-Boudreau

SOG-Per-Game Under-Boudreau

Status

Teemu Selanne

2.92

3.44

↑↑

Corey Perry

3.58

3.00

Ryan Getzlaf

2.29

2.11

=

Cam Fowler

1.50

0.78

Bobby Ryan

2.67

2.22

Niklas Hagman

NA

1.89

=

Saku Koivu

1.29

1.50

Kyle Palmieri

NA

2.6

=

Andrew Cogliano

1.38

0.67

↓↓

Francois Beauchemin

1.50

1.33

=

Toni Lydman

0.82

0.44

Luca Sbisa

0.79

0.67

=

Lubomir Visnovsky

1.94

4.25

↑↑

Devante Smith-Pelly

1.18

1.5

 

Selanne’s increase in point production might be associated with his increase in SOG. Owners probably won’t be complaining about his current 270 SOG end of season pace. Visnovsky won’t maintain his current shooting rate for the remainder of this campaign, so look for it to drop back down to roughly two per game. Biggest droppers are Fowler and Ryan who have both seen their SOG totals take a hit since BB has taken over.

 

Name

TOI-Per-Game Pre-Boudreau

TOI-Per-Game Under-Boudreau

Status

Teemu Selanne

18:11

18:19

=

Corey Perry

22:18

20:52

Ryan Getzlaf

22:21

21:43

Cam Fowler

25:18

23:33

Bobby Ryan

19:02

18:14

Niklas Hagman

NA

16:24

=

Saku Koivu

18:00

16:43

Kyle Palmieri

NA

12:47

=

Andrew Cogliano

14:07

15:33

Francois Beauchemin

25:53

26:50

Toni Lydman

20:15

19:18

Luca Sbisa

16:38

17:13

Lubomir Visnovsky

23:37

22:37

Devante Smith-Pelly

10:30

12:55

 

Not much has changed in terms of overall TOI amongst the “big named” players in Anaheim. Most of them have experienced slight decreases, but are still being given plenty of opportunity. Ryan is probably the one to make note of, as he’s down to just 18 minutes per game, which isn’t exactly ideal for optimal point production.

 

Name

PP TOI-Per-Game Pre-Boudreau

PP TOI-Per-Game Under-Boudreau

Status

Teemu Selanne

4:10

3:18

Corey Perry

4:19

3:27

Ryan Getzlaf

4:24

3:34

Cam Fowler

4:36

3:18

Bobby Ryan

2:01

1:37

Niklas Hagman

NA

1:46

=

Saku Koivu

2:16

1:23

Kyle Palmieri

NA

0:47

=

Andrew Cogliano

1:01

1:31

Francois Beauchemin

1:51

1:10

Toni Lydman

0:06

0:00

=

Luca Sbisa

1:15

0:15

Lubomir Visnovsky

4:45

4:23

=

Devante Smith-Pelly

0:47

0:28

 

The PPTOI table resembles the TOI table above. I wouldn’t worry too much about the numbers, as the ratio of PP ice-time percentage remains the same. It’s due to fewer opportunities that the times are looking way off. Once again, Ryan makes the most notable list. BB hasn’t changed the makeup of the top unit, leaving Ryan on the second unit and fantasy owners toiling.

 

The midseason guide is out in about two weeks. If you haven’t had the chance to purchase it yet, make sure you do as it’ll have much more tidbits like the ones found in this article to help you gain a massive edge over your competitions in your pools.

 

Questions or comments? Like always I’ll be ready and willing to discuss them in the section below.

 


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Comments (3)add comment

steve laidlaw said:

metaldude26
... Great work right here. I did a review on this a couple years back tracking all the mid-season coaching changes since the lockout and have been meaning to do an update but it's a rather daunting task. What I found is that historically a team will almost always score more, particularly on the power play. In fact, special teams play is where the greatest gains were seen. Most all teams also improved their record under the new coach. The most important thing I noticed was that most teams took ~10 games to respond to the new coach and then they took off so it is important not to have a knee-jerk reaction if a team stumbles right out of the gates. Only the worst of teams (I'm looking at you Carolina) will continue to lose after a mid-season coaching change and that's because they simply do not have the talent to compete rather than it being a simple failure to buy in.
December 21, 2011
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Stats

Definitely Pengwin. I think you're along the same lines as me in terms of thinking of what changes have impacted the team. I just looked at it from a deeper level with a lot of "real life" stats like giveaways and takeaways too...

Another interesting thing I dug up was...

pre-HITCH: Halak avg shot distance faced: 31.07 Elliot: 36.39
under-HITCH: Halak: 33.17 Elliott: 31.84

So eventhough the SOG for and against have remained fairly constant, it's the quality of SOG that has changed. A lot more of the opposition SOG are coming further away and the D is limiting a lot of those bang em in second chance shots, which in turn has made the team D much better under Hitch. Their style of D is much like the Bruins. SO eventhough their goalie might be seeing 25-30 shots a game, but if they're all coming from the perimeter, those are easy saves for the goalie.

Yeah I was quite interested too regarding the PP. The problem for me is the spread of the PP TOI. The Blues are non-traditional in a way that they have 3 units that they ice. It usually breaks down to about 50-55 seconds top unit, 40-45 second unit and 20-30 for a third unit. Which kinda boggles me, since most teams employ a 50-55 seconds top unit, 40-45 second unit then go back to the top unit once again. Which is why you see the Sedins garner 4+ mins on the PP a game... I'm just wondering if the Blues went with a top unit and gave those guys 4+ mins a game instead of spreading the time out to the Stewart's, Langenbrunner's, and D'Agostinti's if the PP would be more potent?

Line changes haven't been drastic, but Hitch has done a good job of meshing together like minded players, so the chemistry has gotten better within the team. BB is still searching for it...
December 20, 2011
Votes: +0

Pengwin7 said:

Pengwin7
Coaching Impacting Statistics Great collection of statistics here... really like it.

Personally, the things I look at with coaching changes are:
#1: SOG for, SOG against.
Coaching style can modify play. Instruct the team to take more risks (more SOG), instruct the team to focus on back-checking (less SOG). With STL, those numbers haven't changed.
#2: Special Teams.
Really like seeing this. The PP is indeed rising... and this is great for any STL player who is seeing PP-time. I haven't checked, but I'd expect the increase in pts for Oshie & Backes to show up on the PP. GREAT FIND. Also - of non-fantasy-worth, that PK has improved drastically!!! Wow, a few less goals against on the PK can be essential to getting a win.
#3: Line combinations.
Not really sure what Hitch or Boudreau have done differently here. Anaheim just has a complete lack of firepower beyond Line 1. STL seems to have three really nice lines currently.

Great write-up. Like it very much.
A+, top notch.
December 20, 2011
Votes: +0
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