|A look at coaching changes||Tweet|
|Written by Dobber|
|Tuesday, 20 December 2011 10:03|
There have been three coaching terminations in the Western Conference so far this campaign, with two of them having enough evidence to quantitatively analyse the results. This week I’ll break down the winners and losers from each of the moves to help give you poolies an edge in your leagues.
The most obvious improvement is in the overall record. The Blues have gone from a 500 team, to a team that wins close to 70 percent of their contests. That’s probably a bit too high to maintain for the duration of the season, but somewhere around 60 percent mark seems logical. Three factors really jump out at me in the table above. First, the stingy defense continues to earn plenty of victories. Secondly, the PP efficiency has vastly improved to a respectable 13 percent and the third factor is the noticeable decrease in giveaways.
It’s a similar story here in terms of SOG. Oshie has seen his SOG totals nearly double since Hitch has taken over. Interestingly, Stewart has seen his SOG totals plummet, but contrary to popular belief, his point totals have actually increased, which leaves me scratching my head. Colaiacovo has also seen a large increase in SOG as well, which might explain why he’s enjoying a sudden boost to his point totals.
It appears that the trio of Oshie, Backes and Steen have earned Hitchcock’s trust, as all three are averaging close to 20 mins of TOI per contest. Berglund has also seen a notable increase of nearly a minute more per game since the changeover. Stewart has taken a huge hit, dropping more than two minutes per game since Nov. 7th.
The Blues are very unique in terms of how they spread their PP TOI amongst their top players. They have 12 players that average close to or above the one minute mark for each game on the PP. Maybe that’s one of the main reasons why they’re ranked dead last in terms of power-play efficiency? With that amount of limited ice-time, it just doesn’t allow the PP units to develop enough chemistry when they’re barely on the ice together. Shattenkirk continues to garner the most PP ice-time amongst the Blues, which wouldn’t be surprising to see him maintain his point production pace from here on out.
Pretty much status quo in Disneyland! The changes in Anaheim haven’t been as dramatic or noticeable as the changes in St. Louis. The offense has slightly improved, as they’re at least averaging over two and a half goals a game, but the real problem is that they’re giving up nearly four. That can possibly be attributed to the PK, as it has been horrendous since Boudreau has taken over. It’s operating at less than 70 percent during the last nine contests, which isn’t surprising to see them concede greater than three and a half goals a game. The PP is connecting on nearly a quarter of their opportunities, which is at least an optimistic point for poolies.
The Finnish Flash has taken his scoring to another level since BB has taken over. If he can avoid the injury bug, he could very well be on his way to a second consecutive point-per-game season. Vissy has played well since his return to the line-up from a broken finger. Three points every four games is certainly a pace that he could maintain given his role on the team. Fowler’s fantasy value is dramatically dropping. If you can still salvage decent trade value for him in one-year leagues, now might be a great time to take advantage of that opportunity.
Selanne’s increase in point production might be associated with his increase in SOG. Owners probably won’t be complaining about his current 270 SOG end of season pace. Visnovsky won’t maintain his current shooting rate for the remainder of this campaign, so look for it to drop back down to roughly two per game. Biggest droppers are Fowler and Ryan who have both seen their SOG totals take a hit since BB has taken over.
Not much has changed in terms of overall TOI amongst the “big named” players in Anaheim. Most of them have experienced slight decreases, but are still being given plenty of opportunity. Ryan is probably the one to make note of, as he’s down to just 18 minutes per game, which isn’t exactly ideal for optimal point production.
The PPTOI table resembles the TOI table above. I wouldn’t worry too much about the numbers, as the ratio of PP ice-time percentage remains the same. It’s due to fewer opportunities that the times are looking way off. Once again, Ryan makes the most notable list. BB hasn’t changed the makeup of the top unit, leaving Ryan on the second unit and fantasy owners toiling.
The midseason guide is out in about two weeks. If you haven’t had the chance to purchase it yet, make sure you do as it’ll have much more tidbits like the ones found in this article to help you gain a massive edge over your competitions in your pools.
Questions or comments? Like always I’ll be ready and willing to discuss them in the section below.
|Last Updated on Wednesday, 21 December 2011 01:29|