Stewart

 

Plenty of “busts” so far this campaign. Let's discuss a few that have caught my attention and see if a deviation is expected or are things going to remain status quo to drive you further insane.

 

Corey Perry – RW - Anaheim

Heading into the season, there were plenty of warning signs about snagging Perry high at the draft table. He was, on average, drafted at position 4.8 in Yahoo! leagues, which has left a sour taste in many poolies mouths. The problem is there were plenty of tell-tale signs (shooting percentage, team PP efficiency and past numbers), that he wasn’t going to repeat his performance from last campaign, which was unfortunately ignored by many. Maaaasquito Buzz: The best thing that Perry owners can hope for is that newly hired coach Bruce Boudreau can somehow right the ship in Anaheim and return him back to his old scoring ways. As a best case scenario, I’d expect something around 55-60 points in the remaining 56 contests for an end of year total right around the 80-point mark but don’t expect anything more.

 

Bobby Ryan – RW/LW - Anaheim

Much like Perry, Ryan was also highly sought after at the draft table, with an average draft position of 12.4 in Yahoo! leagues. The biggest concern for me was that he was being majorly over-reached in the first place. His 71 points last campaign was a career-high, which kind of leaves me scratching my head as to why he was taken well ahead of “safer” options like Anze Kopitar or Patrick Kane. Granted he was a LW (which was pretty shallow in terms of high-end production at the time), but judging by the amount of forum posts regarding Ryan, that huge gamble certainly haven’t paid off for those who took the leap of faith. Maaaasquito Buzz: As stated above, the rest of the season production for Ryan will largely hinge on what BB is able to do with the Ducks. If he can turn Anaheim into the 3.82 offense of Washington from 2009, then Ryan and Co. could be valuable fantasy owns, but if he can’t then Ryan could be a major fantasy flop this campaign. If I were a Ryan owner, I’d certainly toss a line out and milk the BB acquisition to the best of my ability and sell him for more stable production.

 

Jarome Iginla – RW- Calgary

After starting 2011-12 with just 10 points in his first 21 contests, Iggy has picked up five in his last four starts. If you read my column a few weeks back, then you probably would’ve read that since the lockout he has a 1.09 point-per-game average post-ASG, which is something that you might want to file to the back of your mind especially for H2H playoff matchups. Maaaasquito Buzz: Now might be a great time to “buy low” on Iggy. He just won’t stay mediocre all season long. Another factor that you might want to keep in mind is if the Flames continue to struggle, Iggy could become trade bait for a contending team if Calgary decides to “burn it to the ground” and rebuild, which could shoot his fantasy value up dramatically.

 

Henrik Zetterberg – LW- Detroit

Zets is another player who has struggled to start the season. On average he was drafted 26.4 in Yahoo! leagues, but his 15 points currently have him tied with 15 others for 107th overall, ouch! The bright side is that his 19:22 TOI per game average ranks 44th amongst all forwards, while his 3:40 PP TOI per game ranks 47th. Maaaasquito Buzz: He’s just too good of a player ad is given too much quality ice-time to be held down for the entire season. It’s probably too late to expect 80 points come April, but something around the vicinity of 60 points in the remaining 57 contests could still salvage a few fantasy seasons.

 

Jeff Carter – C/RW- Columbus

What a gong-show it has been for Carter this year. He’s registered just eight points, while missing almost as many games as he has played. Carter has certainly not lived up to his 33.3 Yahoo! average draft position from the start of the season. With Kristian Huselius back into the mix, the Jackets are going to run into the problem of ice-time scarcity, where there’s just not going to be enough to spread around once everyone gets healthy. Maaaasquito Buzz: Carter owners are stuck between a rock and a hard place, as he doesn’t carry much trade value at the moment and you can’t just outright drop him onto the ww. The best case scenario that you can hope for is when he returns, something causes the Jackets’ offense to click and he finishes the season with 60 points.

 

Ryan Getzlaf – C- Anaheim

See Bobby Ryan or Corey Perry above.

 

Corey Crawford – G- Chicago

Good thing Crawford plays for Chicago or he could be in quite a bit of strife at the moment. His 12 wins currently sits him in fourth place, but it’s the 3.00 GAA (31st ranked), and .896 SP (34th ranked), that’s really hurting poolies. Maaaasquito Buzz: Because Crawford plays for the Hawks, you might be able to use his “team status” as a major selling point. A straight up trade of something like Niklas Backstrom, Carey Price or Miikka Kiprusoff for Crawford might just be appealing enough for an ill-advised owner to quickly accept. Sure you might lose a few wins, but the increase in GAA and SP might just be what it takes to push your team over the edge.

 

Drew Doughty – D- Los Angeles

Eight points in 21 contests is certainly something that is unacceptable for someone who was, on average, taken 39.8th pick in Yahoo! drafts. I wonder how much of that is directly due to him missing training camp, as he was holding out for a new contract at the start of the season? The biggest difference that I can identify between this campaign and last year is in the ES production. In 2010-11, 25 of his 40 points (62.5 percent), were scored ES. This season just two of eight (25 percent), has been registered on ES. The Kings’ forwards play a much more down low puck possession game than in the previous seasons, which means that the puck is not coming to the point as much anymore, which in turn explains the lack of ES production for Doughty due to limited touches. Maaaasquito Buzz: I know it’s never a good thing to “sell low”, but I just don’t have faith that DD is going to rebound. There’s going to be a few lurkers looking to “buy low” on him, so if you can squeeze out a good deal of something like Sheldon Souray, Ryan Suter or Ian White, I’d say go for it!

 

Dany Heatley – RW - Minnesota

Heater is just too talented of a player to finish the season with 51 points. His 20:30 overall TOI and 4:07 PP TOI averages per game are both tied for 20th amongst all forwards. Something tells me that he’s going to shake his offensive slump fairly soon. Maaaasquito Buzz: Heater is a strong “buy low” candidate, he probably won’t hit 80 points, but even if he finishes with 70 that would equate to 53 in the remaining 55, which would be amongst the league leaders during that span.

 

Chris Stewart – RW – St. Louis

Many poolies had high hopes for Stewart entering this campaign. I mean why wouldn’t you when a player tallies 23 points in the final 26 games to finish off a season. The big thing that a lot of people miscalculated was the offensive depth that the Blues had entering 2011-12. With David Perron now returning into the mix, the Blues essentially have eight players that could all legitimately register 40 points or more by season’s end. With that kind of offensive depth, it’d be hard for any one player to really produce consistent offensive numbers moving forward. Here’s the production chart of Blues’ forwards since Hitch has taken over.

 

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Maaaasquito Buzz: With three points in the last three contests, there might be a few poolies out there that might interpret that as a turnaround. Use that to your advantage and see if you can move Stewart for a decent return.

 

Brent Seabrook – D – Chicago

If you read my Not With a 10-foot Pole column during the pre-season, you probably would have read me highlighting Seabrook as a candidate to avoid at the draft table. So far it’s proven true as he’s on pace to tally just 28 points come April. The big thing that you have to recognize is that he’s NOT an offensive defenseman. He’s more of a stay-at-home, shut down blue liner. Yes, you can argue that he tallied 48 points last season, but if you look at his seasonal numbers, for most of his career he’s tallied right around the 30-point mark. Maaaasquito Buzz: Seabrook still carries a “big name”, which makes him highly coveted to ill-informed poolies, so there would be plenty of interest if you dangled his name out on the trading block. If you’re playing in a standard settings league, which doesn’t count HIT or BS, then much like the situation with DD, if you can land a Souray, White or Suter in return for Seabrook, I’d say go for it.

 

R.J. Umberger – C/RW – Columbus

With just seven points in 26 contests, it kind of shocked me to see that Umberger was still 31 percent Yahoo! owned at the moment. The plus side is that over the last two weeks, he’s averaging 16:19 overall and 3:00 on the PP per contest. Maaaasquito Buzz: If you are an Umberger owner, sit tight for another week or two, if he continues to stink it up, then send him to the ww. With the amount of PP TOI that he’s receiving, surely he’s going to have something to show for it.

 

Patric Hornqvist – RW – Nashville

Hornqvist was drafted, on average, with pick 110.5 in Yahoo! leagues. With just 11 points to start the season, it’s certainly not what a lot of poolies bargained for. Here’s the interesting thing about him. If you look at his first half (Oct-Dec), vs. second half (Jan-April), stats, they tell a very interesting story. In 2009-10, he tallied 21 in 40 to start the season then finished with 30 in 40. Last season, he went 20 in 34 in the first half then 32 in 45 in the second half. Could he be in store for another 0.75 point-per-game rate this second half? Maaaasquito Buzz: I’m a big reader into trends, so I’m going to peg Hornqvist as a huge second half “buy low” candidate. Now might be a great time to send his owner a trade offer and take advantage of his slow start.

 

Any busts of your own? Questions or comments? As always I’ll discuss them with you in the comments section below.

 


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Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Craig

Do you really want to take that bet?

If you look at the current production...

4 G, 9 A, +8, 37 PIMs, 4 PPP and 76 SOG (Souray)
4 G, 7 A, +13, 8 PIMs, 4 PPP and 58 SOG (White)
5 G, 13 A, +11, 22 PIMs, 9 PPP and 62 SOG (Suter)
2 G, 6 A, -4, 18 PIMs, 6 PPP and 39 SOG (Doughty)

Doughty trails the rest pretty much by 20 SOG, so that's going to be a loss in that column. Souray is a consistent threat for 100 PIMs if he stays healthy... There's no way that Doughty will hit 100 PIMs (unless he does something stupid and gets a 25 PIM game or something like that...) So that's 2 categories that he would drop to Souray alone, which means that in order for Doughty to have "better all around stats" than Souray he would have to win all of the point categories plus +/- as well...

Given that he's not a big "goal scorer" as well, I'm not so sure you should be so confident in your bet...

December 07, 2011
Votes: +0

ynotzz said:

ynotzz
... I guess it depends on what your expectations are. 17:40 and 2:20 should be enough for a winger to produce at a 55-60 point pace. If you were looking for a 70+ player I agree that it is time to move on.

Regarding the blues players I just think it is too early to be sure of anything. I feel pretty confident that Hitch will stop the line juggling now, and that the top 6 will get better ice time and production.

I am not saying that Stewart and Okposo are a sure bet to turn things around, but if you've held on to them up to now I would definitely wait a few more weeks before moving on.
December 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Okposo/Berglund

The thing is, is it enough to be productive. If you look at Frozenpool Okposo has averaged 17:40 per game last 2 weeks...

Tavares 20:36
Parenteau 19:57
Moulson 19:08
Grabner 18:54
Nielsen 18:04

So he's still sitting 6th at the moment...

PP TOI
JT 4:03
Moulson 4:00
Parenteau 3:54
Rolston 3:21
Okposo 2:20

So once again not really great time there as well.

I'll admit that he is getting better than the start of the year, but I don't think it'll be enough to push him back amongst the top 100...

The thing with the Blues is that it's very offense by committee at the moment.
You've got 8 forwards at the moment averaging at least 15:45 per game... Same with the PP. You have 8 that's averaging 2 mins a game. The reason why they can't seem to get anything happening on the PP is probably because they aren't playing enough to build that chemistry and know where each other are. They get 1 PP shift of 30-45 secs then they have to swap again. Where as if you look at Van, SJ, Chi... the top units are out for a minute, minute 30 before the 2nd unit comes out.

That's where it'll hurt Stewart.

If you look at the point-per-game breakdown of all the Blues' forwards they're all hovering around the 0.50 mark. You have some a bit higher 0.75 and some 0.38, but on average it all around the 0.5 mark between the top 8-10 forwards, that's the warning sign for me.

I'm not saying it's desperate time to move Stewart, but you might want to use the 3 points in 3 games to help you sell him for a more consistent guy... I just don't think that he'll continue point-per-game the rest of the way.
December 07, 2011
Votes: +0

ynotzz said:

ynotzz
Okposo and Stewart 1. Okposos TOI and PPTOI has been alot better lately. Five points in his last seven, improved ice time, back on the top lines etc. Getting rid of him now might end up as a sell low.

2. Stewart is now playing with Berglund and Perron while the top line is Oshie-Backes-Steen. I think the line juggling is over now that Perron is back and that both these top lines will see an increase in production going forward. This is a bad time to get rid of Stewart.
December 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Craig Bernes said:

jokerit72
did you just say.... trade Doughty straight up for Souray/I.White/Suter if you get the chance ????

I do like reading your articles, as you definitely have a different perspective than most, but really? Really?

Tell you what.... I don't have an opening in the league that I run, but could probably pull some strings and create one.
Dead money is welcome in my pools ANYtime.

If any of those 3 guys have better all-around stats than Doughty at the end of the year I will eat dobber's shorts. With lots of mustard, but still.



December 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Kaberle

Definitely... definitely doesn't look the same in BOS as he did in TO. Kinda the same situation as Doughty just seems like he's "on the ice" rather than "creating offense".
December 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Doughty in Keeper

Definitely different in keeper than 1-year. The thing that you would have to keep in mind is that keeper leagues have much more factors to consider. With the way of how LA is set up with the longer termed contracts, I don't see it changing all that much, but with that said it's near impossible to try to predict what would happen next month let alone 2-3 years down the road.

I mean 2 years ago Doughty was a "must own" in keeper leagues, but now not so much... same could be said for Green...

The thing that you have to keep in mind with keeper leagues is that you have to look at here and now, IMO. There's too many people out there that play for 2-3 years down the road. I'll stockpile all the "high end" prospects and I'll win something 2-3 years down the road. Who knows what's going to happen 2-3 years down the road? We can't even predict what's going to happen in the 2nd half so how you can play for 2-3 years down the road...

With Doughty he's still going to be amongst the league's elite, but I just don't see him active enough to get back to the 60+ point days anymore. Things might change but it could remain status quo as well.
December 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Brassard

I think it's tough for him. They rushed him into the league a bit too early and hurt his development in the process. Then what they did was stick a few roadblocks like Vermette and Umberger in his way too, which hampers it even more.

I think it can go either way, mismanagement of the player, and also the player not stepping up the plate as well. The thing is I don't think a lot of poolies went after Brassard high at the drafts, so he's not really a big "bust" candidate at least not to the extent of the ones that I listed in my article, but still "bust" in a minor way...
December 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Doughty

In 1 year leagues I think I'd take any of those deals. I just don't see him doing very well this year... The offense just doesn't run through him anymore. He's more of a just being on the ice type of player this year as opposed to 2 years ago where he was gung ho and getting puck possession all the time.

I'm just going by my observations, and things can certainly change but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
December 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Penner

I agree but the thing is Penner has always been a softie IMO. He really only had that 1 good season in Edmonton when he was forced to be that "go to" guy. But with LA, they have Kops, Richards, Gagne, Williams, and Brown that he can just "coast" by and be allowed to half ass things...

He's one of those guys that lack "heart" IMO.
December 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Okposo

Yeah definitely... the thing is he just isn't getting quality time anymore. The Isles are looking at straying away from him and going with Parenteau and Moulson much more than him.
December 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Brodeur


Definitely I have him in the Dobber Expert league and he's killing my at the moment.

The thing that I'm holding onto is his 18-8-2 record along with 1.96 GAA and .919 SP that he finished the last year with from January onwards...

I'm just hoping lightning strikes twice...
December 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Colin said:

NJDevils
Kaberle Kaberle is a big one IMO
December 06, 2011
Votes: +0

Emanuel Sequeira said:

hockeymasters
doughty Is your advice different if you have him in a Keeper league? I also have Getzlaf, and some guy who wears an Ovechkin jersey but doesn't play like him.
December 06, 2011
Votes: +3

John said:

MinorityReport
... Probably no bust bigger than Derick Brassard. Was at least expecting him to be a 2nd line C on an upswing team. Now, not even playing, hardly at all.
December 06, 2011
Votes: -1

fajita123 said:

fajita123
Doughty "... if you can squeeze out a good deal of something like Sheldon Souray, Ryan Suter or Ian White, I’d say go for it"

Seriously?! Is this truly how low Doughty has fallen? Ugh, I was/am really hoping on a turn-around.
December 06, 2011
Votes: +2

Death from Above said:

Death_from_above
Penner Dustin Penner. Wasn't expecting much to begin with, but he should have been producing with the opportunity that he had.
December 06, 2011
Votes: +0

Frank said:

December 06, 2011
Votes: +0

Frank said:

NoUseForAName
Bust of my own Okposo... only 7pts in 21 games!
December 06, 2011
Votes: +0

Hey Robbie said:

Hey Robbie
Whoops Doh! I just realized that part of the reason I mis-assessed Brodeur's potential was that I don't even know enough about him to put him in the right conference.
December 06, 2011
Votes: +0

Hey Robbie said:

Hey Robbie
Marty I figured Brodeur to be in the #8-11 goalie in my league this year. He more than anyone else on my squad is killing me.
December 06, 2011
Votes: +2
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