|Indicators of Success: Left Wingers (West 2011)||Tweet|
|Written by Ryan Ma|
|Tuesday, 22 November 2011 10:00|
Continuing with the fourth part of the series, this week we’ll take a closer look at the Western Conference left wingers.
NOTE: These ramblings are based on one-year leagues, and not meant for keeper/dynasty leagues.
I also used the positions as listed on www.nhl.com, so there might be some discrepancies in position compared to your league settings. Don’t worry too much if a clear cut left winger isn’t listed in this column, if it wasn’t listed in last week’s column, it’ll be covered in next week’s centers column.
Not much fantasy value amongst the LWers in Anaheim.
Tanguay started the season with 17 points in the first 19 contests then rallied to post 32 in the final 28 contests in 2010-11. Could he repeat that performance this campaign? Glencross’ current 57 point pace bests his career-high of 43 by a noticeable margin, so expect that to come back down to Earth in the next few months. Bourque’s six goals are on track of his typical career pace, but the lone assist is a bit worrying. He’s never been a pass-first type of player, but one assist in 19 games is far too low.
Sharp continues to chug along. He won’t unseat Patrick Kane or Jonathan Toews as the primary offensive producer for the Blackhawks, but he’ll continue to pick up those solid support points. Look for another 65-70 point campaign from him. There’s been a bit of chatter about Carcillo being this year’s “Steve Downie”, but the main difference is that last year Downie had sustained PIM production throughout the season, whereas Carcillo’s has been sporadic. 21 of his current 39 PIMs came directly from one game, which definitely skews the numbers. If you’re after consistent PIMs (H2H leagues) then Carcillo might not be the best option.
Prospal was one of the candidates that I pegged as a “sleeper” in the DobberHockey Fantasy Guide and so far it’s proven to be on the money. He’s currently spending 86.6 percent of his overall ice-time alongside Rick Nash, which leaves me scratching my head wondering why he’s only 40 percent Yahoo! owned at the moment. Umberger’s just too talented to finish the season with 25 points. His current 3.4 percent shooting efficiency is less than half of his career average. He might not be spending a lot of time with Nash or Jeff Carter, but Antoine Vermette and Ryan Johansen aren’t exactly slouches. Prior to last year, Huselius has played to a 65.5 point rate for the previous four seasons. The latest reports have him possibly returning fairly soon (a week’s time), so now might be a great time to stash him on the IR and ride him for the second-half of this season.
Landy was my early season choice to win the Calder, but that doesn’t look like it’s going to pan out with the way that Craig Smith, Matt Read and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins have busted out of the gates. One of the positives coming from the last three contests is that he’s beginning to see much more ice-time alongside more offensive-minded players like Matt Duchene (59.12 percent), and Milan Hejduk (54.19 percent), rather than third liners like Ryan O’Reilly and Winnik. That might help the offensive numbers as the season rolls along.
I don’t think I’m going to make very many friends with my following statement, but now might be the perfect time to sell Benn and Eriksson in one-year leagues. During their hot-start, the Stars were averaging a crazy 3.21 goals for per game, but have averaged just 1.33 during the last six contests. Benn and Eriksson both have huge fantasy trade value at the moment. A smart poolie could probably parlay that into a decent return if they dangled him out on the trade block, but if the deal isn’t to your liking, then take a pass. I just don’t have much faith that the Stars will revert and maintain the 3.21 early season success that they experienced at the start of the campaign. If you’ve been following my columns for the past couple of years, then you’ve probably read my thoughts on Morrow’s month-by-month seasonal breakdown. Since the lockout, the “hot” months for him are October, January and March, while the rest of the months are the “down” months. So consider him a sell candidate for at least the rest of November and December.
Zetterberg’s current 5.6 shooting percentage is at a career-low, so look for that to increase as the season wears on. Even strength scoring hasn’t been a problem for Zetterberg, but it’s the lack of PP scoring that’s the main reason for the lowly point totals so far this campaign. Since the lockout, he has averaged 0.40 PPP per game, but this season he’s at a paltry 0.05. Now might be a great time to “buy low” on Zetterberg and wait for his eventual return back amongst the league scoring leaders.
Smyth has never had a full point-per-game season, which should give you some perspective on his current scoring pace. At 35-years of age, it’ll probably be unlikely that he can continue to average over 20 mins per game and close to three minutes on the PP moving forward. Now might be a great time to use his hot start to your advantage and “sell high” on Captain Canuck. After a bit of a slow start for Hall, he busted out in a big way on Sunday night with his second career hat-trick. Is that the crank that’s going to start the gears turning?
Gagne pretty much controls all of the fantasy value amongst left wingers in LA. He’s spent 76 percent of his overall ice-time alongside team scoring leader Anze Kopitar, which is never a bad thing. Look for his scoring pace to continue. Penner has been “unproductive” this season to put it nicely and he’s now on the shelf for “weeks”. Cut bait on him while looking for alternatives.
It hasn’t been the big coming out party that many poolies expected since Heatley was traded to the Wild in the off-season. A positive that poolies should note is that his current 9.1 shooting percent is a career-low, so look for an improvement in that department as the season rolls along. Another factor is that he’s averaging over 20 minutes per contest (17th overall amongst all forwards), as well as close to four minutes on the PP (33rd overall), so it won’t be much longer before a break out occurs. Latendresse is out of the Wild line-up due to concussion symptoms. When he does play, he’s a pretty good source for support-type numbers, so keep a watchful eye on the status for his return.
Much like the situation in LA, most of the left wing fantasy value lies with one player, which is Kostitsyn. He’s receiving a decent amount of ice-time as well as on the PP, but it probably won’t be enough to do heavy damage for your fantasy pool. Look for a repeat of last season, where he’ll finish right around the 50 point mark.
At the ripe, old age of 39, Whitney’s still chugging along and producing as if he were 10 years younger. His current 69 point pace is a bit high, so I’d probably expect that to drop back towards the 58 or 57 that he’s posted the previous two seasons.
All the numbers point towards Marleau returning back to 2009-10 form, where he notched 83 points, a plus 21 rating along with 274 SOG. With his dual eligibility in Yahoo! leagues, now might be a great time to acquire him and give your roster some additional positional flexibility. Clowe is right on pace for his “typical” 60 points along with 100 PIMs. As long as that’s all your expecting from him then you should be a happy camper come season’s end.
It is kind of weird that NHL.com actually has no LWers listed for the Blues, so I had to adjust a bit for this week and pull a few from their C list. McDonald is dealing with a concussion and it doesn’t appear that he’ll be returning to the Blues’ line-up anytime soon. That might actually turn out to be a good thing as it helps free up some extra ice-time from the chock full cupboards of the St. Louis forward corps. There’s not a lot of value from the rest of the “role players” listed above.
Not much to add to the Sedin situation. He’s generally a double digit percentage shooter, so look for a slight improvement over his current 9.5 rate. Burrows is still seeing zilch time with the Sedins on the PP, which will severely limit his offensive production. Since he plays for the Canucks, he’ll automatically get that “big name” attachment. If you are a smart poolie use that to your advantage and see if you can get a higher quality player back in return for his “big name”.
Questions or comments? As always I’ll be ready and willing to discuss them with you in the comments section below. We’ll see you next week, as we wrap up the final portion of the Fantasy Indicators of Success 2011 series to discuss the centers from the Western Conference.
Karlos El Taco Piquante said:
Louis Toth said:
Let' s Go Rangers said:
Craig Zamzow said:
|Last Updated on Tuesday, 22 November 2011 16:44|