|Indicators of Success: Right Wingers (West 2011)||Tweet|
|Written by Ryan Ma|
|Tuesday, 15 November 2011 08:59|
The value of a winger can easily be identified by interpreting the same two stats used to identify the value of blue-liners, which is PP ice-time and SOG (shots on goal). The reasoning behind it is very simple. PP ice-time usually separates players who are offensive-minded from those that are defensive-oriented. Similarly with SOG, the more a winger shoots, the higher the chance it goes into the net or creates offensive chances.
NOTE: These ramblings are based on one-year leagues, and not meant for keeper/dynasty leagues.
I also used the positions as listed onnhl.com, so there may be some discrepancies in position compared to your league settings. Don’t worry too much if a clear cut right winger isn’t listed in this column, I assure you that it will be covered in the left wing or center column in the next two weeks.
At the ripe, old age of 41, the Finnish Flash appears to still have plenty of gas left in the tank. Nearly half of his points have come from the PP which is a great sign for his owners. Perry’s 50 goal season last year was quite a feat. The main reason was because of his high shooting percentage. This campaign he’s returned back to his career norm, which explains the decrease in his point production so far this season. Only one of Ryan’s nine points has come from the PP. He’s just not seeing any time on the big unit, which will severely limit his production with the man advantage. I would try to dangle both Perry or Ryan on the trade block and see what they might fetch, if the deal is right then pull the trigger, if it isn’t then stand pat.
You probably don’t need me to tell you that all of the right wing fantasy value lies with Iggy in Calgary. He’s the heart and soul of the team and will continue to be the focal point of the Flames’ offense. An interesting fact that might interest you is that Iggy has a 1.09 point-per-game average after the All-Star Break since 2005 (163 points in 150 contests). Now might be a good time to make a pre-emptive strike in acquiring his services for the stretch run.
After a few injury-plagued seasons, Hossa finally looks healthy and back to his old self this campaign. He’s on pace for 303 SOG, which is the same rate that he fired when he was in a Thrasher uniform, back in 2005-07, when he notched 92 and 100 points respectively. Can he pull off that type of production in Chicago?
Much like the situation in Calgary, Nash pretty much owns all of the fantasy value amongst right wingers in Columbus. All of the numbers point towards him maintaining a similar, if not slightly better, production as the season progresses. Nash’s current 7.8 shooting percentage is the lowest of his NHL tenure (career average 13 percent), so look for that to adjust itself within the next few weeks. Dorsett continues to be a great source for PIMs, he won’t contribute much in the other stats, but if you’re after the penalties then he’s your guy.
Hejduk’s on pace for a career-high of 265 SOG, along with a very under-the-radar 57 points. If you need help on the RW, it probably wouldn’t be a bad idea to invest some stocks into Hejduk. Jones is one of the purest snipers in the league (career 16.9 shooting percentage). If he can ever manage to stay healthy, a 35-goal season certainly isn’t out of the question. Over the last three contests, he’s spent 78.9 percent of his even-strength ice-time alongside Matt Duchene. If he can maintain that spot, look for Jones to rack up a whole bunch of goals by season’s end.
Ryder’s experiencing career resurgence in Dallas. He hasn’t produced at this clip since the days he was donning a Habs uniform back in 2006. Look for him to maintain his pace with all of the PPTOI that he’s receiving in Big D. His current 18.2 percent shooting efficiency is a tad high compared to his career average, so expect that to take a slight dip as the season progresses.
If you knock out Franzen’s 27-game season in 2009-10, he averages 73.6 contests per season, so expect him to miss a few contests due to knick knack injuries as the season rolls along. Another factor to keep in mind is that his career-high has only been 59 points, so his current 87 point pace is definitely out of the ordinary. Now might be a good time to sell high on Franzen before his bubble bursts. Cleary has tallied right around the 40-point and 160 SOG mark in each of the previous five seasons. His current 3.8 shooting percentage is well below his career average, so look for that to pick up fairly soon.
The “kid line” in Edmonton is looking awfully good at the moment and most of that could be attributed to the play of Eberle. The only knock on him is that he’s not firing a lot of SOG, but that’s easily forgotten with his point production. There’s nothing much more to add with Hemmer, when he plays, he’s gold, but he’s also a major band-aid boy when it comes to time missed. Keep a watch sign on him, but also consider buyer beware.
Williams is loving life in LA. He’s spent 73.3 percent of his overall ice-time alongside superstar Anze Kopitar. The trio of Simon Gagne, Kopitar and Williams have combined for 26 points which sits amongst the top five most productive lines in the entire league.
As long as he can maintain that role, he’ll be fantasy gold. Brown’s never really been a big offensive point-getter, so don’t expect him to consistently light up the scoresheets. He has always had a “big name” attachment and someone in your league might be willing to fall into that trap. If you are a Brown owner, it might be a smart idea to toss a few lines out there to see what you can fetch in return.
The Wild are continuing to shuffle their lines in the hope of finding chemistry amongst their forwards. Until they develop some consistency, Seto will continue to toil in mediocrity. With that said, he’s still receiving plenty of quality ice-time that when he does find that chemistry he could bust out big time. So now might be a great time to buy low on him. Clutterbuck continues to be a league leader in the HIT department. Another positive is that he’s garnering a bit of PP time on the Wild’s second PP unit as well. If you’re looking for a swing for the fences pick, it might not be a bad move to consider Clutterbuck.
After starting 2011-12 with a goose egg after seven contests, Hornqvist is on fire with a seven-game point scoring streak in which he has tallied 11 points. He has had similar streaks in his career, so it isn’t out of the ordinary for him to put up numbers like this. One thing you that you need to keep in mind is that since 2008 the Preds as a team has only produced one 60+ point forward, so keep your expectations in check for Hornqvist. Erat missed the first part of the season dealing with an upper body injury. He’s very similar to Cleary in a way that he’s pretty consistent in terms of his production. Look for him to tally right around the 50 point mark for an eighth consecutive season.
After starting the season with 10 points in the first nine contests, Doan has quickly quietened down with zero in the last six. He’s a pretty streaky player, so expect another hot-streak in the next little while. The TOI and PPTOI that he’s currently receiving will ensure that his streak of nine consecutive 55+ point seasons will remain intact. Vrbata is another one of those players that’s taking the NHL by storm at the moment. He’s developing plenty of positive chemistry with Ray Whitney and Martin Hanzal, but it’s completely unsustainable for the entire season. It probably wouldn’t be too much to ask for a 55-60 point season, but anything more and you’re probably expecting too much. At just 32 percent Yahoo! owned, he’s probably worth a flier just to ride the hot-streak.
After spending last year toiling on the third line, Pavelski got a big boost this campaign as he’s spent 88.4 percent of his overall ice-time alongside superstar Joe Thornton. The added ice-time has seen mini-Joe make a solid jump towards the top of the league in terms of point-production. If things remain status quo, look for him to maintain his current scoring clip. Havlat missed a bit of time at the start of the season dealing with a shoulder injury, but seems to be back in form. His current 0.73 point-per-game ratio is right in line with his career 0.82 numbers, so expect somewhere along those lines by season’s end.
The Blues made the first coaching change of the season with the removal of Davis Payne for Ken Hitchcock. The following table highlights the major changes that have been made.
I’ve never been a big fan of “offense by committee” type situations, as this is exactly the scenario that I pictured at the start of the season. The offense is so evenly shared, that it’s darn near impossible to try to predict who’s going to be the consistent offensive leader of the team. I’d personally try to sell all of the Blues’ forwards, as I don’t think any of them are going to be valuable fantasy assets in one-year formats. Backes and D’Agostini seem to have a slight uptick with the arrival of Hitch, while Stewart seems to be the odd man out.
Not much fantasy value on the right wing in Vancouver, when it comes to offense.
Questions or comments? Like always I’ll be ready and willing to discuss them with you in the comments section below. We’ll see you next week, as we go through the Indicators of Success 2011 for left wingers from the Western Conference.
|Last Updated on Tuesday, 15 November 2011 14:11|