sid

 

Sidney Crosby spoke in a press conference Wednesday for the first time since his 'double-concussion' back in early January. So what was said? Well, nothing...and everything. There is no single player in the NHL who has more of a ripple effect on fantasy hockey than Sid the Kid. So let's take a look at the best-case scenario, the worst-case scenario, as well as analyze what was said by Crosby and his doctors.

 

Concussion specialist Dr. Collins stated that he knew "they were in for a long recovery" from the first time he saw Crosby, indicating that the symptoms that were exhibited immediately spoke volumes to him about the type and severity. So he is unsurprised that Crosby is still not 100 percet. The concussion is, however, a "manageable injury", but they are "not going to make any mistakes in this case".

Dr. Collins is "supremely confident" that Sid will make a full recovery. Sid was assessed yesterday and his state "is the best we've seen" and Collins is "very pleased with where he is at now". They just need to get him reconditioned - and as we all expected, the specialist said that there is no timeline for this. When asked about introducing contact, Collins said - "not even close". As for a timeline, Collins refused to say whether October 6 was possible or impossible. Didn't want to go down any road that led to a hint of a timeline. There is no truth to the rumor of him going backstage, taking off his mask and revealing Gary Bettman.

The press conference then turned the attention to Dr. Ted Carrick. He described the evaluation process and got into specifics of what Crosby can do now. He seemed very upbeat and positive about the injury and I get the impression that when it is solved, it will be solved.

 

As for Crosby himself, he did have several interesting things to say.

 

1. Retirement has never crossed his mind.

2. He is very happy with his last three weeks (the term 90% and for some reason 89% was bandied about a lot).

3. When asked if there was a chance that he would never come back, he replied that there is a "very slight one, but I wouldn't bet on it." He is not preparing for that possibility at all.

4. He went over some of the worst symptoms that hit at times, ranging from migraines to having trouble watching the video with the rest of his team back in the spring.

5. The key question he was asked - is it more likely or more unlikely that he will play in the coming season: "Likely." No hesitation.

 

The Pittsburgh Penguins camp begins on September 17. He won't be ready for that, given that he is "not close" to contact and when he does take contact he is likely looking at two to three weeks of it before getting into a game. The season starts on October 6.

 

I don't believe it is reasonable to think that Crosby plays more than 70 games in 2011-12. But I think 70 is possible. We'll call that "best case". In the fantasy guide, I have him down for 65 games. That's just a safer bet. I also don't think he plays zero games, given his answer of "Likely". And he won't bother coming back in March - why do that? So the worst case to me is 30 games. That's a very big gap, and as I said - the ripple effect will be huge. Many players go from " no fantasy value" to "decent fantasy value"...or from "decent fantasy value" to "star fantasy value", and so forth. Here are my projections of the two scenarios (70 games on the left, 30 games on the right). The real result, I'm sure, will be somewhere in between.

 

Player

GP

Pts

Player

GP

Pts

Sidney Crosby

70

111

Evgeni Malkin

78

103

Evgeni Malkin

78

97

Jordan Staal

82

66

James Neal

78

66

James Neal

78

57

Kris Letang

81

66

Kris Letang

81

51

Jordan Staal

82

62

Chris Kunitz

71

50

Chris Kunitz

71

57

Sidney Crosby

30

43

Steve Sullivan

63

45

Tyler Kennedy

71

42

Tyler Kennedy

71

37

Steve Sullivan

63

39

Eric Tangradi

58

30

Dustin Jeffrey

67

33

Paul Martin

76

29

Paul Martin

76

33

Dustin Jeffrey

60

25

Eric Tangradi

66

32

Marc Letestu

65

21

Marc Letestu

70

29

Nick Johnson

30

12

Nick Johnson

38

18

Fleury

40 wins

Fleury

36 wins

 

 

Malkin was at his best when Crosby was sidelined two/three years ago. While Letang, at the 41-game mark last year, was on pace for 72 points. Then Crosby went down and he ended up with 50. Letestu was fairly productive when there were injuries in the lineup - and this goes for all the younger players such as Jeffrey, Johnson and Tangradi. Meanwhile, with the incomplete power play, Martin may see some PP time without Crosby for 52 games. But he won't see any with Crosby out for just 12 games.

 

Kennedy produced very well last season because he saw a lot of time on the power play. This won't happen as much with Malkin back...but it won't happen at all with Crosby back too. As for Sullivan - what a great fit for Crosby's line. If he's not on that line, however, his game really is on the decline.

 

In the DobberHockey Experts League, Ryan Ma drafted Crosby 11th overall. My pick was 13th and I would have taken him for sure. I realized at around Pick 8 or 9 that I would have drafted him then, as well. Any higher...and nope.

 

You draft these players hoping for the one scenario and if it comes to pass, you do well. If the other scenario comes to pass, you start getting down on yourself because your team isn't performing. But in the end - nobody really knows which scenario will shake out. And that's the fun of fantasy hockey. If you could find a computer program that spits out the precise projection, then how boring would this game be?

 

 


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Comments (16)add comment

ktox said:

ktox
setback The article does seem to rely on a "when he's back he is back" assumption. The doctors say he will play this season. The worst case assumption is that that will be with 30 games to go. I see it as "very likely" that he suffers a setback within those 30 games and gets pulled before the season end. Therefore worst case would be less than 30 games.

As a single year league player I will not take Crosby in my draft. When I would take him (maybe the 4th round) is really a moot point, as someone else will certainly draft him before I will.
September 10, 2011
Votes: -1

Repent Tokyo said:

repenttokyo
lol got them now, thanks smilies/smiley.gif
September 08, 2011
Votes: +0

Dobber said:

Dobber
RT If you read in during the three minutes that I was in here formatting just now...then yes. LOL
September 08, 2011
Votes: +0

Repent Tokyo said:

repenttokyo
am i the only one who can't see the projections referred to in this article?
September 08, 2011
Votes: +0

Rob Myatt said:

robmyatt
Fleury Interesting that if crosby plays 70 games instead of 30 fleury only gets 4 additional W's. I thought crosby may have more of an impact than that on the overall team's record.

Also, I like where Chewd is going with this. Don't necessary agree but it's a neat angle. There IS a chance that he won't play at all (albeit very very very slight...setbacks etc.) and it would be interesting to see projections (For the rest of the Pens) if he doesn't play at all. Although he would still go in the first round of almost every format league regardless.
September 08, 2011
Votes: +0

Chewd said:

Chewd
Devil's Advocate You're right I didn't see the presser! All I was saying was that according to your article, in Crosby's own words when asked if there was a chance that he would never come back, he replied "very slight". That implies that there is a slight chance (however minuscule the chance 0.01% or whatever) that the worst case scenario is zero games. I'm not saying that I would bet that he will play zero or that it is the most likely outcome.

Question: Is it at all possible that Crosby doesn't play a single game? If the answer is no then I'm missing something.

Disclaimer: I traded Crosby last week.
smilies/cry.gif
September 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Dobber said:

Dobber
... So you didn't see the press conference then? Sid and the doctors all but guaranteed he would play this season...and this is a topic where nobody guarantees anything. So the range is not best case 70 worst case 0, thereby nullifying your logic smilies/wink.gif
September 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Chewd said:

Chewd
... If I had to bet $500 right now, given a 10 game range, I would put it down for 35 - 45 games (I'm a little more risk averse).

Assuming 3 possible outcomes as follows:
1. Best Case: 70 gms = 111pts (10% probability of occurring)
2. Worst Case: 0 gms = 0pts (10% probability of occurring)
3. Most Likely Case: 45 gms = 64 pts (80% probability of occurring)

Expected Value = (111 x 0.1)+(64 x 0.smilies/cool.gif+(0 x 0.1)
Expected Value = 62 points

Note: all variables are subject to your own interpretation of points per games and probability of games played.
September 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Chewd said:

Chewd
Avatar Not sure who's avatar that was from my last post but it's not mine. Weird.
September 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Dobber said:

Dobber
Chewd If I had a 10-game window and I was FORCED to bet $500 on it, I would put it on 57 to 67 games. That takes him early to late November. If I bet $500 on 30-40 games, I would be too afraid of losing all that money. What would you gamble on? Real dollars, now!

If he goes zero games, then his projection is zero points. I'm saying here that if he plays any games, which is where my head is at, then it will be minimum 30.


Markus - if the GMs in your league knew in October that Crosby would miss 40 games, they may have made different moves. But seeing you jump to a monster lead...they probably made trades accordingly, assuming you won it. By the time they knew different...it may have been too late. Apples and oranges - start of the season vs. end of the season.
September 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Marcus Lepkowski said:

Blueman
crosby In H2H leagues, Crosby should still be in the top 5. Most savvy GM's can make the playoffs and at that time you want to have the best players available. I had Crosby last year in my league and STILL won without him.

Peace
September 07, 2011
Votes: +1

Chewd said:

Chewd
Worst Case Scenario I believe the worst case should be zero games played for this season even if the probability is "very slight". The 30-40 game range seems like the most probable but not the worst case. His forecast would then be a simple expected value equation of all scenarios with associated probabilities.
September 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Maximus said:

Mr Zizzla
Terrible for my keeper team Having taken the opportunity/risk of trading for a concussed Crosby (only way i would get him off his previous owner) last season, this news hurts my team significantly.

I built the core of my keeper team around the Penguins, which under previous circumstances, i would be ready to work my way up the standings but as Dobber noted, the most impact will be felt by owners of Crosby, Letang and Fleury.

The core of my team: Crosby, Letang and Fleury.

The Pens can clearly win games without Crosby so i am not overly concerned about Fleury's stats this year as he played like a beast without #87 and kept them in almost every game. The biggest hit will be to Letang. He had 'Mike Green Status' written all over him last year and with the departure of Goligoski, even more ice time for him on the PP but with the Pens scoring 1-2 GRINDING goals a game, it's tough to get in on those points.

@Pengwin7
1) He has no choice but to produce. If he doesn't he falls out of the upper tier of NHLers and becomes expendable once Crosby returns. Based on Malkin's drive this summer and his commitment to getting into the "best shape he has ever been", I really believe he will return to his game breaking ways. I was actually expecting an increase of 10+ points at least and was surprised to see only 6 tacked on. The Pens PP has been mediocre at best the last few years and the PP was never dominant nor was it a sure thing to score (much like you expect a VAN or WAS type team to score every time) so if anything it opens up more time for Malkin to handle the puck, which he sure loves to do, and i don't see it being any worse than it was.

2) I highly doubt Malkin is on Staal's wing expect in MUST SCORE situations and on the PP. Hopefully Malkin worked on his faceoffs as much as his fitness. I would say there is a 5% chance he gets a W, until Crosby returns, then it would go up to 75%.

3) I don't think it will drop as much as you might think and i believe he will still have a 35+ total and unless you compare him to a 70+game goalie like Luongo[was], Lundqvist, Price or Quick[was] he will be at the top of the league in wins.

you're in better shape than I am my good man.

I am already looking forward to Crosby's return to the ice and Malkin's return to dominance!

My prediction:
Crosby comes back in January, making it a full year.
40GP 28G 32A 60P
September 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Czechline said:

Czechline
Draft 1yr leagues So now the big question is, when do we draft him in 1yr leagues?
September 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Pengwin7 said:

Pengwin7
Already terrible news for my Keeper Team With Fleury & Malkin as two of my top keepers, this news kills me.

1. I disagree that Malkin's total could be better without Crosby. I know it was this way a few years ago, but the PP is just so much better with more talent.

2. I would have called Malkin a 90% likelihood for winger eligibility with a healthy Crosby. I still think there is a chance Bylsma puts somebody else at a center and keeps Malkin on wing with Staal, but I could be wrong.

3. Fleury's win total definitely drops. Big, big bummer.
September 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Renegade said:

Renegade
Timeline Crosby does not return by the end of October. I would say best case scenario for the Penguins is that he is up to speed and ready by December. They definitely hold him off if they are winning which I believe they will.

Crosby around 50-55 games is a safe prediction to make. If I was the Penguins though, I would hold him off until March and Playoff time.
September 07, 2011
Votes: +0
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