Stafford

 

With each passing day of the NHL offseason, fantasy owners look further and further into statistics, hoping desperately to find the “steal” of the draft. Almost every guide or magazine on the market will provide their reasons why each player will score X amount of points. But even in most “points-only” leagues, power-play-points is still a prevalent scoring category.  Remember that if a player scores a point on the power-play, you’re typically collecting points in two scoring categories instead of one. This article will look into some of the clutch performers from last season and whether or not they have the opportunity to replicate that success.

 

Let’s start with an example. On draft day, who would you choose first, Nathan Horton or Drew Stafford? Without looking at statistics, I’d probably choose Horton. I realize that Horton played 80 games and Stafford only played 62 which could already sway your vote, but let’s look at the fact that both scored right around the same number of points. Surprisingly, Horton scored only 15% of his points on the power-play, as Stafford scored 37% of his on the man advantage. Assuming Stafford scored the same number of points in 80 games played, the power-play advantage would be a huge bonus for those who drafted Stafford.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Play

Name

Team

GP

G

A

Pts

PPG

PPA

PPP

PP%

PP/G

82P

Nathan Horton

BOS

80

26

27

53

6

2

8

15%

0.10

8.20

Drew Stafford

BUF

62

31

21

52

11

8

19

37%

0.31

25.13


Due to the fact that defensemen typically quarterback the power-play, it’s common to stockpile top-pairing defensemen in hopes of accumulating power-play assists. Using 10 points as a cutoff (just an arbitrary number), let’s look at which players in the Eastern Conference scored the most amount of their points on the power-play.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Play

Rank

Name

Team

GP

G

A

Pts

PPG

PPA

PPP

PP%

PP/G

82P

1

Sergei Gonchar

OTT

67

7

20

27

5

15

20

74%

0.30

24.48

2

Michael Del Zotto

NYR

47

2

9

11

2

5

7

64%

0.15

12.21

3

Joe Corvo

BOS

82

11

29

40

5

18

23

58%

0.28

23.00

4

Christian Ehrhoff

BUF

79

14

36

50

6

22

28

56%

0.35

29.06

5

Chris Pronger

PHI

50

4

21

25

3

11

14

56%

0.28

22.96

6

Dennis Wideman

WAS

75

10

30

40

9

13

22

55%

0.29

24.05

7

Tobias Enstrom

WPG

72

10

41

51

6

22

28

55%

0.39

31.89

8

Brett Clark

TAM

82

9

22

31

6

11

17

55%

0.21

17.00

9

Tomas Kaberle

CAR

82

4

43

47

0

25

25

53%

0.30

25.00

10

Vincent Lecavalier

TAM

65

25

29

54

12

16

28

52%

0.43

35.32

11

Matt Niskanen

PIT

63

1

9

10

0

5

5

50%

0.08

6.51

12

Kris Letang

PIT

82

8

42

50

4

20

24

48%

0.29

24.00

13

Ryan Malone

TAM

54

14

24

38

9

9

18

47%

0.33

27.33


Sergei Gonchar clearly had an off season compared to his previous years in Pittsburgh, but he scored 74% of his points on the man advantage. That’s not going to help his plus/minus rating all that much, but it would certainly help fantasy owners looking to climb up the ladder in the PPP department.

 

On the flip side, here are the players in the Eastern Conference who scored at least 40 points but had the lowest percentage of their total points come while on the man advantage. This was rather alarming to me, noticing players like Marchand, Grabner, Wheeler, Horton, Cole, Voracek, and Kane, all scoring less than 10 points on the man advantage, while still having relatively successful seasons.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Play

Rank

Name

Team

GP

G

A

Pts

PPG

PPA

PPP

PP%

PP/G

82P

1

Brad Marchand

BOS

77

21

20

41

2

1

3

7%

0.04

3.19

2

Michael Grabner

NYI

76

34

18

52

2

2

4

8%

0.05

4.32

3

Blake Wheeler

WPG

81

18

26

44

0

5

5

11%

0.06

5.06

4

Nathan Horton

BOS

80

26

27

53

6

2

8

15%

0.10

8.20

5

Erik Cole

MON

82

26

26

52

3

5

8

15%

0.10

8.00

6

Jakub Voracek

PHI

80

14

32

46

2

6

8

17%

0.10

8.20

7

Artem Anisimov

NYR

82

18

26

44

3

5

8

18%

0.10

8.00

8

Frans Nielsen

NYI

71

13

31

44

0

8

8

18%

0.11

9.24

9

Evander Kane

WPG

73

19

24

43

4

4

8

19%

0.11

8.99

10

Patrice Bergeron

BOS

80

22

35

57

3

8

11

19%

0.14

11.28

11

David Krejci

BOS

75

13

49

62

1

11

12

19%

0.16

13.12


With those stats in mind, here are some players to keep in mind if you want to add some PPP to your roster this fall.

 

Sergei Gonchar – As mentioned previously, Gonchar scored 74% of his points on the PP last year. The year before, he scored 60% of his points on the PP. Ottawa should have a better season this year and Gonchar’s production should naturally rise.

 

Martin St. Louis – Sidney Crosby missed 41 games last season but was on pace to score 38 PPP. The only person who would have beaten him was St. Louis, who scored 41 points on the man advantage. Marty will have ample opportunities to repeat the success again. Note: 37 of St. Louis’ 41 PPP were assists.

 

Steven Stamkos – Someone has to bury all those feeds from St. Louis and Stamkos’ 17 power-play goals were tops in the East. The next closest person to him was teammate Vincent Lecavalier with 12. His 36 man-advantage points were also second in the East, but would have been third behind a healthy Crosby.

 

Derek Roy – Although Roy was only able to dress for 35 games last season due to injury, he scored 40% of his points on the power-play. That prorates to just under 33 points on the year, which would have placed his name right next to Brad Richards’.

 

Kris Letang – Even with Sidney Crosby out for half of the season, Letang still scored 24 of his 50 points on the power-play, putting him in a tie for 10th overall in Eastern power-play points. With Paul Martin being his only real competition, Letang should remain the #1 PP option on defense in Pittsburgh. If Crosby ends up playing 60 or more games, Letang should see a residual increase in PPP.

 

Drew Stafford – Stafford’s 52 points in 62 games still haven’t elevated him to elite status with most fantasy owners, but that’s a 69-point pace that shouldn’t go unnoticed. His aforementioned PPP percentage (37%) would have given him 25 PPP on the year, good enough for 14th overall in the East.

 

Nik Antropov – Antropov had his worst season since 2007, but despite scoring only 41 points, 39% of his points came on the power-play. If Antropov improves his point total by only 10 points (a very realistic possibility), he should be looking at 20 power-play points. There aren’t many people in Winnipeg to challenge for ice time, so expect Nik to have plenty of opportunities to bounce back.

 

Please let me know thoughts below and I’ll be happy to reply.

 


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Comments (10)add comment

Tim Lucarelli said:

duballstar014
@nav Nav, I took my data from Yahoo. I found it very easy to convert to a spreadsheet, then I added formulas. For example, Yahoo provided PPG and PPA, so I did a basic calculation to add in PPP.

Next, I looked at PP%, which shows what percentage his PPP were of his total points.
PP/G is the PPP scored per game (fairly obvious).
82P is the PPP/game normalized to an 82 game output, showing what the totals would be if the skater played a full season.

I did this same calculation for SHP and special teams points, but PPP seemed to produce the most interesting data.
August 19, 2011
Votes: +0

nav said:

frythedevil
... Tim where did you get this info from. I was checking the frozen pool stats and was unable to see any ppp info. I am curious as I am in a league where PPP's play a major role.
August 19, 2011
Votes: +0

Tim Lucarelli said:

duballstar014
... Solid feedback all the way around. I'll have to re-run my numbers with TOI. Very solid suggestion.
August 18, 2011
Votes: +0

DuklaNation said:

DuklaNation
... Its important to note that there serious intangible factors for PP time. Depends on the player's assets and how it mixes with the PP unit. Some players just arent suited for the top PP untit. So its not realistic to hope for top PP time for them.
August 18, 2011
Votes: +0

Ryan Lenethen said:

DarthVain
TOI It would be interesting to see how these numbers break down by TOI for PP. That is, who was most effective with their time on the PP. Who got the most points with the least time. One could look at players like that and think, well perhaps if their PP time goes up, their point totals will in a big way.
August 18, 2011
Votes: +1

Chad Burly said:

2sticks1puck
... There's another way to look at this data. If guys like Marchand, who can score 41 pts with little to no pp time, what can they do if they get it?
August 18, 2011
Votes: +1

Tim Lucarelli said:

duballstar014
@Alain Alain, you hit the nail on the head my man. Many times an increase in PPP leads to a decrease in plus/minus. It doesn't always happen, but it is a concern. Plus/minus is a little tougher to predict though as one guy can be +10 one year and -14 the next. Whenever in doubt, follow your gut. If you think a guys +/- is going to kill you, move on to another player. Always follow your instinct and think for yourself. What I'm saying may make sense for person A but not for person B. As long as you're taking the time to consider what youre reading (and not just acting because someone told you to), you should be fine.
August 17, 2011
Votes: +1

Tim Lucarelli said:

duballstar014
leagues Hey Shoeless,

I look at Dobber's roto invitational leagues as points only leagues, which also include PPP, but I will be the first to admit I don't play too many of those. I prefer a wide range of scoring categories, so my understanding may be off base there.

Regardless, my main point was that PPP is a valuable stat that is rarely analyzed in depth. I will work on the language moving forward. Apologies for any confusion and thanks for bringing it to my attention.
August 17, 2011
Votes: +0

Alain Dube said:

saints99
... But don't forget that there's no +/- awarded for PPP.
So if the league rewards +/-, the discrepancy between regular and powerplay points might not be as wide
August 17, 2011
Votes: +0

Shoeless said:

Shoeless
points only league Tim - I noticed this in another article of yours as well - not sure about your definition of 'points only' leagues. As I understand it, points only is G, A, W, SO with W and SO have some multiplier factor - often 2x for W and 3X for SO. Again, only my understanding that a points league includes other peripherals commonly converted to some kind of fantasy point value.

Not that it really impacts on the message in your articles, but I was curious.
August 17, 2011
Votes: -1
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