The Fantasy Guide was released yesterday. Very proud of it. Great feedback. Definitely the best yet. And I’ve left enough goodies (articles) to give me extra content to add over the next two weeks. Only four or five typos this year. Usually closer to 10. Not bad for no editing department. But those have been fixed. Up to you if you want to re-download it, but I’m sure you know that Conklin is the Detroit backup, Budaj is the Montreal backup, Burns signed a new contract and Bryzgalov is the Philadelphia starter…

 

Ryan Kesler underwent surgery on his torn labrum and will miss 10-12 weeks. That wipes out training camp and puts the start of the season at risk. This is an example of an update that will go into the fantasy guide and also adjusts his projections. This kind of news comes through daily - so it's great to have your butt covered.

 

Excellent comment below that I must address. Regarding the Stamkos/Malkin debate. In a keeper league, it is not close. Give me Malkin. Not close. Granted, he could be another Peter Forsberg, while Stamkos is the reliable Joe Thornton. This example is in the mid-90s - at the time, Forsberg looked like this 125-point player, while Thornton looked like a 110-point player. Hindsight is 20/20, but when Forsberg first jumped on the scene, we didn't know if he would miss 75% of his games going forward. So all we can go by is talent. If healthy, he would have banged off several 125-plus seasons. But he wasn't. Obviously, in hindsight, you go with Thornton. But early on you want the guy with the upside. It doesn't matter if every second season he gives you a lemon because he wrecked his knee (or foot, in Forsberg's case). You keep him for the extra 15 points or more that he brings in the other years. Now, for all I know, Malkin could wind up playing 40 games a year and retire by 2020. But that's the risk you take. You go for the generational player. Perhaps his knee is fine going forward and he gives you his full potential (130? 140? More?) year in and year out.

 

In a one-year league, the risk is magnified. In that league, give me Stamkos. It's too high a draft pick to take a chance on. If you lose your first-round pick for half the season, you're toast.

 

As of late Monday, the vote was 57% to 43% for the “no” vote regarding the referendum on the new arena for the Islanders. Speculation is that this means the Islanders will move. I don’t think so.

 

Versus will be rebranded as NBC Sports as of January 2. What a great day for hockey – Versus becomes bigger, the investment in sports grows, and guess which sport was right there on the ground floor? Sometimes, when you the roll the dice, things work out nicely.

 

Brent Burns has signed a five-year extension with the Sharks. He just loved playing there, his family loves it there, the schools are great, he’s – what? He just got there a month ago? Oh.

 

I wonder if that number ($28.8 million divided by five – too lazy to do the math, long day) will be used in today’s arbitration hearing for Shea Weber?

 

Vancouver’s affiliate the Chicago Wolves have named Craig MacTavish their head coach.

 

Here’s some footage of Peter Mueller out skating with Erik Johnson, courtesy of Adrian Dater.

 

Keeper league – 21 years old – 20 players, top 12 count, keep everyone. This is the first of three that I’m in, and also the most basic. But after winning three years ago and then stupidly thinking that I didn’t wreck my team “that” bad and hanging around trying to get in contention for two years, I decided on a rebuild back in January. So here I am, with the third overall pick this summer, lots of great picks ahead, lots of young kids on my team – and Malkin. After Malkin, my next best players drop off: Sharp, Ennis, Fleischmann, Jordan Staal, Yandle…really just a bunch of blue-chip kids and those guys.

 

But I’m in luck. An owner is desperate for Ennis. I mean, emailing quite a bit. I don’t want to trade Ennis, but the rule of thumb is – if you get asked about the same guy twice, then listen. Hear him out. If you get asked about him a third time, then take him to the cleaners. So we go back and forth and this is what I get:

Ennis, Kuznetsov, Tarasenko, Leblanc, Filatov, a 1st and two midseason picks (we get one round in the midseason, he traded his pick to me for different years)

FOR

Parise, M.Koivu, Tangradi, a 3rd and a midseason pick (projected worse one)

 

Not bad. Landed the best player in the deal, the best picks, cleared up some roster space. I’m not a big fan of Mikko Koivu. I just don’t like the injuries, and what has he done…really? Enough to justify his reputation as a 70-point guy? So I shop him around. Now I trade:

Koivu and a 2nd

FOR

Visnovsky, Oshie, a 1st

 

So now I improve my picks again, pick up a player who could be just as good as Koivu, plus I get a 68-point defenseman practically free! But, I don’t really like either player…but I do like St. Louis as a team to build around (along with Edmonton, Pittsburgh and the Islanders). So I set my sights on Berglund. I know I can’t get Berglund off this guy unless I ante up. But there is no way I give up Parise for him. So I expand the deal. We go back and forth for a few days and I end up doing this:

Parise and Visnovsky

FOR

Berglund, Turris, Granlund, and the first overall pick (Hopkins)

 

I think Turris takes a step forward this year. I think Granlund could very well be No.1 on my prospects list by the spring, and Hopkins matches up with Omark on my team. But I just finish doing my St. Louis analysis and I’m not happy with what I found for Oshie. And I know guys value him. I also have a couple of extra draft picks and I don’t want to be forced to drop a player like Jeffrey or Tangradi. These are good picks, but those drops are not really drops. So I try to use Oshie and a couple of high picks to get Eberle. That failed. I use Oshie and the 17th overall pick (third pick of the second round):

Oshie, 2nd

FOR

Paajarvi

 

Overpaid? Yes, but I think in a year or two I won’t think that. And I had the picks to “waste”.  Now my 20 is this (I’ll match up with teams, since the pool includes playoffs):

Malkin/Staal/Tangradi/Jeffrey

Sharp/Frolik

Yandle/Turris

Fleischmann/Matthias

Paajarvi/Omark

And then Karlsson, Granlund, S. Kostitsyn, Tatar, Goligoski, Perreault, Berglund, Gerbe

That’s my 20. I drop Matthias for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. I drop Perreault for Ryan Strome. I still have the 15th overall pick and Jeffrey may be the next to go. So I’ll be looking to overpay in a 2-for-1 to slightly upgrade a player and keep Jeffrey. That’s the plan. So what would have been a three-year rebuild I have easily cut it to two. And I am lined up huge for great draft picks in the next three years.

 

To summarize the above deals –

Outgoing: Ennis, Kuznetsov, Filatov, Tarasenko, two midseason picks

Incoming: Berglund, Granlund, Turris, Paajarvi, Nugent-Hopkins

 

I think the deals shifted the teams that I own players from, around in my favor. And it looks as though the young players I got are about equal (although closer and a little more certain) – and I got Hopkins for a couple of decent picks.

 


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Comments (19)add comment

flaupmes said:

Zangief
... I meant 19 yr old. No difference.
August 02, 2011
Votes: +0

flaupmes said:

Zangief
... Ha ha Chewd. We may have to change our bet to a black eye bet, although I dont think you could take my punch. Kind of like that band aid you have on your roster (Dipietro). Malkin had two extra years of development due to the lockout and transfer agreement issues.
As if Stamkos wont get there. He hit 95 as an 18 year old. Doubt he can improve on that hey?
Good luck with your team of brittle bones, maybe if u can improve on your 7th place you got last year I'll let you touch the trophy I've held for the last two years and will not be relinquishing anytime soonsmilies/wink.gif
Beat it, nerd!
August 02, 2011
Votes: +0

Chewd said:

Chewd
@ flaupmes You can't say both are capable of consistently putting up 100+ points when Stamkos has never even reached the 100 point plateau.

Anytime you're ready we can escalate our Malkin vs. Stamkos bet to a "black eye" bet.

I wonder how Stamkos would do without St. Louis?
August 02, 2011
Votes: +0

Austin said:

austeane
Kesler That does suck but Helllllooo Cody Hodgson! At least an audition for the second line center role.
August 02, 2011
Votes: +0

Atomic Wedgy said:

Atomic Wedgy
Dobber trade I was with you right up until this trade...
Parise and Visnovsky
FOR
Berglund, Turris, Granlund, and the first overall pick (Hopkins)

Ouch! I dont understand the logic of doing this trade. Two awesome players for a bunch of potential. I am not a fan of those kinds of deals unless I am the one trading away the potential.
August 02, 2011
Votes: -1

flaupmes said:

Zangief
... We could go back and forth on this up until puck drop, lets just see how it plays out. I feel pretty confident.
August 02, 2011
Votes: +0

Rusty Pickles said:

Rusty Pickles
... In a goal heavy league give me Stamkos...
August 02, 2011
Votes: +0

Dobber said:

Dobber
... You added an IF there flaupmes. Without any IFs, it's not even close. We can't add an IF like that until the next Malkin injury. IF Stamkos breaks his leg next month, then Malkin is even better, right? IFs can go in any direction.

You say "younger" but come on - we're talking about 25 vs 21 in terms of age. Younger?

And at "best" it won't be 10 points, it will be 40. That's my point.
August 02, 2011
Votes: +0

flaupmes said:

Zangief
... Fair enough.

Saying it isnt even close in a Keeper is a bit of a hyperbole though Dobber. If Malkin turns out to be held together by angel hair pasta for the rest of his career then it is not even close. Straight up and healthy they are both very talented and capable of putting up 100+ consistently. Give me the younger, healthier, safer option everytime. At best, Malkin will beat him by 10 pts. At worst, he will lose by 50.

Lets hope they both stay healthy and see how the cards play out. Thanks for the reply.
smilies/cool.gif
August 02, 2011
Votes: +0

Jeff Angus said:

angus
... Give me Malkin, too.
August 02, 2011
Votes: +0

Dobber said:

Dobber
... Auld/Budaj, both would be 5-game goalies behind Price. Thanks for pointing out the other oversight though
August 02, 2011
Votes: +0

HF said:

Legoldenseal
Guide : Price with Budaj Hi,

good job again with the guide. Always lots of insight.

I catch that you change Price's backup for Budaj in the projections on your second release yesterday, but you don't change the name of Auld in the analysis. I'm not doing cherry picking, just curious to know if Budaj presence modify your Price's projections. In my mind, the Habs wish to have a backup able to take more than 5 starts a year and so they signed Budaj instead of Auld. Not saying that Price will get only 55 starts but I'll see him much more around 65 than >70 like he did last year. So I wasn't expecting so much wins out of Price.
August 02, 2011
Votes: +0

r22yu said:

BlackGold
to flaupmes Technically he did.

Stamko's projected ppg = 1.23
Malkin's projected ppg = 1.26

Missed games give Malkin 3 fewer pts smilies/tongue.gif
August 02, 2011
Votes: -1

flaupmes said:

Zangief
... Dobber
I wish you would have stuck to your guns, I have read content on here for the last year or more about how Malkin is better than Stamkos, how he is fully recovered, working out lke never before, and going to go on a tear this year, etc etc etc. Then you have Malkin getting fewer points than Stamkos in the guide. Seems like you are covering your bases. If (when) Stamkos outscores him, you can say "ya, I had that projected" but if Stamkos doesn't, I know you will write several paragraphs about how dumb all of us who think Stamkos is the much better option really are and how you have been telling us this all along. You would make a great politician. I would have liked to see you stick to your Malkin over Stamkos stance.
I know it only 3 points difference, but why not make it three points for Malkin. You even say in the guide you would draft him over Stamkos, but you are predicting him to have less. I am confused.
Love the guide as always though.smilies/wink.gif
August 02, 2011
Votes: -1

Dobber said:

Dobber
... It was basically Parise for Hopkins and Berglund...and a bit more, as Turris/Granlund is probably too much for Visnovsky. I wanted all four players, Visnovsky was just a bonus I could throw in
August 02, 2011
Votes: +0

Chris said:

CascadeFilly
Guide Congrats on another great guide, and for reaping the rewards of a job well done with record sales! Thanks, Dobber and company! smilies/smiley.gif
August 01, 2011
Votes: +1

David said:

OceanMon
sentium needs to get laid from what I read of his comments yesterday, he needs to lighten up! hahahah
August 01, 2011
Votes: +0

Claudio said:

sakic19
Trades Wow you like Berglund that much that you moved parise for him. That says a lot. I don't like that trade, I know your rebuilding but parise is far from old or from hitting his prime. But hey, who am I to judge from the guy I pay for his hockey info.
August 01, 2011
Votes: +1

Michael Frenken said:

Death_from_above
Quebec Islanders I think this is it for the Islanders in New York. It is sad that the people of Long Island don't realize the benefits of the Islanders. Peladeau should buy them and move to the Colisee for a couple of years until the new arena is built. If he has a team, it should move the process of the new arena quicker.
Then Balsillie can get Phoenix and move them to Hamilton. All is right in the world. smilies/cheesy.gif
August 01, 2011
Votes: +1
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