Jeff Carter Mike Richards

 

Fantasy Impact: In a pair of deals today, the Flyers have traded Jeff Carter and Mike Richards. Jeff Carter was dealt to the Columbus Blue Jackets for Jakub Voracek, a first and a third-round draft pick. Mike Richards to the Los Angeles Kings for Brayden Schenn and Wayne Simmonds.

 

The Flyers get: a skilled, but inconsistent winger in Voracek, and possibly the No.1 prospect not playing in the NHL right now in Schenn. They also get a solid, industrious, all-around young player in Simmonds. To say nothing of all the cap space and the nice draft picks.

 

The Blue Jackets get: one of the best centermen in the game today. Giving up the picks hurt, but they have a pile of skilled, unrealized potential forwards so giving up one doesn't hurt.

 

The Kings get: A leader, a warrior and a talented No.1A centerman.

 

Needs were filled by all teams today.

 

Fantasy Players Impacted: In Columbus, Jeff Carter's numbers move up. The added power-play time alone (even though his PP time was fine in Philadelphia, it will be ALL the PP time in Columbus) will see to that. Carter is a sniper and so is Rick Nash. Regardless, the two elite players will play together and that can only help both. The lucky set-up man on the wing wins the lottery. Your natural instinct is to put Kristian Huselius there, but not so fast - Derick Brassard won just 46.6% of his face-offs - that is worse than Sami Pahlsson, Derek McKenzie, Antoine Vermette and RJ Umberger. Move Brassard to the wing. They may not do that at first, but I believe it's inevitable. This hurts Vermette, who gets bumped down the depth chart. As for Ryan Johansen - short term this will hurt. No longer a lock to make the team. But long-term, that's a good thing. Columbus has screwed up enough of their top picks and they are all too aware of that. Wait another year for Johansen to make the jump.

 

My projected depth chart:

Nash-Carter-Brassard

Huselius-Vermette-Umberger

Calvert-McKenzie-Kubalik

UFA they'll sign - Pahlsson - Boll/Dorsett

 

As you can see, a nice dark horse in Derek McKenzie is now out of the dark-horse mix. One other thing to consider is how much the Blue Jackets' power play improves. When you factor in Kris Russell's strong final 30 games, he could very well shock the fantasy world with something nice (like 50 points). I stress "may".

 

 

In Philadelphia, things finally settle in proper in terms of line combos. No more questions about moving this center to that wing, or this other center to another wing, or this center is No. 1, 2 or 3. It's now Claude Giroux and Daniel Briere as the 1a/1b options up the middle. Brayden Schenn will apprentice on the third line, which is a great fit for him. The cap space is cleared to announce the Ilya Bryzgalov signing, and they didn't lose any grit in giving up Richards - they acquired some in Schenn and Simmonds. There is now room to re-sign Ville Leino. Here is how the line combos shape up:

 

My projected depth chart:

van Riemsdyk-Giroux-Voracek

Hartnell-Briere-Leino

Nodl-Schenn-Simmonds

Carcillo - Betts -Powe/Shelley

 

This is a nice-looking squad. Nicer still if Schenn develops into the guy he is most compared to: Mike Richards. With Carter and Richards gone, this helps give JVR some ice time and allows them to re-sign Leino, thereby keeping the Leino, Hartnell, Briere line not only intact but also thrusts the line into the spotlight. No more second fiddle for them. With Richards off the point on the power play, it frees up more ice time for Matt Carle as well, so I like him for a small bump. As for Schenn - he'll be brought in more slowly in Philadelphia as a third liner. Long-term, that's a very good thing. But you may want to put your Calder Trophy expectations aside. I am assuming that Kris Versteeg will be traded soon.

 

Philadelphia's depth chart, in my opinion, has been fixed today. No more shoving square pegs into round holes.

 

 

In Los Angeles, this move gives their offense a whole new dimension. And with leaders Richards, Dustin Brown, Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson, they have the core they need around Anze Kopitar to win hockey games. Let's look at the depth chart:

 

My projected depth chart:

Williams-Kopitar-Brown

Penner-Richards-Smyth

Clifford-Stoll-Lewis

Parse-Loktionov-Richardson

 

Right off the top you can see that this will hurt Andrei Loktionov. Richards eats a lot more ice time at center than Schenn would have. I also think Richards is a better fit to get Dustin Penner going, although I don't see Penner up over 60 points. As for Richards himself, his line quality has gone down. But he was only getting 65 points in Philadelphia - getting out of the clutter in Philly is countered by the lesser linemates in LA. So call it a wash. With Simmonds out of the mix, I like Trevor Lewis more. He is a Smyth or Williams injury away (likely) from a top-six job.

 

 

Fantasy Players this helps, in order:

1. Jeff Carter

2. Ville Leino

3. Daneil Briere

4. Jakub Voracek

5. Anze Kopitar

6. Kris Russell

7. Rick Nash

8. Derick Brassard

9. Matt Carle

10. Dustin Penner

11. James van Riemsdyk

12. Claude Giroux

13. Trevor Lewis

 

Fantasy Players this hurts, in order:

1. Antoine Vermette

2. Andrei Loktionov

3. Derek McKenzie

4. Ryan Johansen

5. Brayden Schenn

6. Mike Richards (marginally, as I noted in the write-up - 1% - to keep it in perspective)

 

 

Don't forget - these deals now pretty much make the Ilya Bryzgalov signing official. He is a top fantasy goalie to own right now, if not THE top. The Flyers will go with Bryzgalov and Mike Leighton (awesome), and give Sergei Bobrovsky much-needed AHL time.

 

 


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Comments (32)add comment

JULES said:

itzjules
... And oh yeah if you think I overpaid Nodl and Powe, take .25 off each of them and give Leino 3.5M
June 24, 2011
Votes: +0

JULES said:

itzjules
Flyers are cap-fine without any more moves FORWARDS (13)
James Van Riemsdyk ($1,654,166) Claude Giroux ($3,750,000) Jakub Voracek ($2,500,000)
Scott Hartnell ($4,200,000) Daniel Briere ($6,500,000) Ville Leino ($3,000,000)
Kris Versteeg ($3,083,333) Brayden Schenn ($3,110,000) Andreas Nodl ($1,300,000)
Darroll Powe ($1,150,000) Blair Betts ($700,000) Wayne Simmonds ($1,500,000)
Jody Shelley ($1,100,000)

DEFENSEMEN (6)
Matt Carle ($3,437,500) Chris Pronger ($4,921,429)
Braydon Coburn ($3,200,000) Kimmo Timonen ($6,333,333)
Andrej Meszaros ($4,000,000) Sean O'Donnell ($1,200,000)

GOALTENDERS (2)
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5,666,667)
Sergei Bobrovsky ($1,750,000)

SUMMARY (totals compiled without the bonus cushion)
ROSTER SIZE 21
SALARY CAP $64,300,000
CAP PAYROLL $64,056,428
BONUSES $3,815,000
CAP SPACE $243,572
June 24, 2011
Votes: +0

Dobber said:

Dobber
... Simmonds is the type of player who is the same on all teams - that 2nd/3rd line gritty, energy guy who helps in all the categories. Unless it's Crosby, I don't see linemates pushing him up or down in terms of points.

Josh - couldn't agree more. But I don't believe Richards was Richards back when he was 19.
June 24, 2011
Votes: +1

josh said:

braaksma
Brayden Schenn Comparision Once again a great read guys. I do have to question one point though. If Philly is getting word that Schenn is the next Mike Richards then they better re-evaluate things. I live in Brandon and have seen Schenn play for 3 years with the "Wheat Kings" and he is no Mike Richards. Well he is.... without the hustle, heart, leadership, toughness, and physical play. Schenn just doesn't have that edge. I think Schenn will be a great scorer in the NHL with some grooming but he will not bring what Mike Richards brings to a team.
I don't really think Philly wanted to do this deal but had to due to locker room issues. I mean they just signed Carter to a 11 year deal this past season and Richards to a 12 year contract extension is 07. Why sign guys long term and then trade them especially when you slapped the 'C' and 'A' on them so quickly..
June 24, 2011
Votes: +0

Martin Cloutier said:

Anze
Brad Richards to LA ? I think unlikely since they now have 2 top centers. Maybe they were the team who made an offer to Dallas for his rights, but if Richards refused to waive his NTC then they turned around and make the deal with the Flyers. Just a guess...
June 24, 2011
Votes: +0

lcbtd said:

germant
Simmonds Hey Dobber.

Great breakdown. Whenever a trade is made in the NHL, dobberhockey is my first stop.

I hate to add to the "what about this player" requests but I have Simmonds and I'm really curious as to your thoughts on him both short and long term.

L.A. really trusted this guy and gave him an opportunity. I just wonder if the opportunity will still be there in Philly. I noticed you didn't list him as a Help or Hurt so I'm assuming you're saying it's a wash then? Sitting on a line with Schenn and Nodl certainly doesn't excite me any as I see potentially even less ice time and Schenn, while he has potential won't be putting up much next year at all and I don't think that line will see any important minutes.

Any Insight from Flyer guys would be great too.

Thanks.
June 24, 2011
Votes: +0

Dobber said:

Dobber
proof And if I must show proof, here is proof that Williams/Brown/Kopitar were an actual line for much of the season:
Frozen Pool/Line Combos/Justin Williams/2010-11 season



June 24, 2011
Votes: +0

Dobber said:

Dobber
wingers Totally interchangeable, come on. I've seen both Williams and Smyth go opposite wing tons of times.
June 24, 2011
Votes: +0

TheRook said:

TheRook
... Fzusher, nice breakdown.

thats the economics of the deal but this trade wasnt just about trading for cap space and asset management. It was mostly due to internal issues and off ice situations. I think the econimics that you broke down are exactly what they looked to bring back for the reasons you stated but the decision to make the trades were different reasons.

I am also not sure Carcillo is resigned but i do think powe and nodl will be resigned. I think these moves also make room to resign Leino which after these moves will be important to keep one line fully intact.
June 23, 2011
Votes: +0

Pengwin7 said:

Pengwin7
Another way to look at it Last 4 years in Philadelphia:
Jeff Carter +58
Mike Richards +45

Q: Did Philadelphia really replace this with their trades today & Bryz signing?
A: To be determined.

I realize PHI had to make these moves because of locker rooms problems and NTC's kicking in... but... the players they received do not make PHI a stronger team.

2011-2012 Prediction:
PHI 2nd in Atlantic (PIT, PHI, NYR, NJ, NYI)
PHI 6th in East (BOS, WAS, PIT, TB, BUF, PHI, NYR, CAR)

NYR & NJ are going to be nipping at PHI's heels in 11-12.
June 23, 2011
Votes: +1

Ken Shultz said:

kshultz
Voracek in Philly I'm likin' Voracek in Philly.

He'll still fall to the mid rounds or later in one year leagues.
June 23, 2011
Votes: +0

fzusher said:

fzusher
Why trading Richards makes cap and roster sense Before these two trades, Flyers have about 4.4M in cap room, into which they need to fit Bryzgalov, Leino, Simmonds, Nodl, Carcilo, and #6 D to replace O'Donnell (this is from capgeek, and it counts Jody Shelly and Ian Laperriere but not Matt Walker). They have no forwards in the system who are really ready to step in and replace anyone they trade (Legein? Wellwood? Kalinski?), meaning that any forward they trade for cap reasons would have to be replaced in that trade, or via free agency or another trade. Meaning they can't trade Versteeg for a pick and then replace him with someone else on the cheap. On D they'd have to sign somebody to replace O'Donnell or give his minutes to Bartulis and make Gustafsson the no. 7 (Matt Walker is still there, but his 1.7M cap hit cannot be absorbed). They also have no high picks with which to grab someone who can step right into the line up.

Trading Carter frees up all but 0.4M of what they need to fit Bryzgalov in, Voracek fills Carter's roster spot on RW, and the pick gives them the possibility of drafting somebody they can put into the lineup. But they are still left with 4.8M in cap and now need to resign Voracek on top of Leino, Nodl, Carcilo, Powe, and O'Donell replacement.
And if they sign the guy they pick 8th, that's a cap hit of about 3M. And they are still in the pickle of having to bring in a replacement for anyone they trade away, including Versteeg.

So, the only way to get out of this pickle is to trade someone for 2 players - 1 who replaces the player you trade, but cheaper, and 1 who takes a roster spot from a more expensive player whom you can then trade for a pick. Richards, Hartnell (maybe), Giroux and JVR are the only forwards in the line up you could conceivably get two players for, but since Giroux and JVR are on ELCs you won't really save cap by trading them away unless it's for players under 2M, and there you are looking at big drops in quality. If you get a cheaper player for Hartnell, it is likely also going to be a drop in quality, plus it mucks up the Briere line chemistry. With Richards, however, you can afford a drop in quality to a third line C because you have Giroux and Briere. And because Richards is in his prime and sell high, the drop in quality in his case could be temporary - i.e., you could get for him a young C who would be a 3rd liner now, but has potential to move up in a few years (i.e., when Briere is out of gas). You couldn't get both a future Hartnell and another ready player for Hartnell. So the only real alternative to trading Richards is to try and trade a D for another, cheaper D + forward. Unlikely Carle or Coburn get you that.

So the return for Richards exactly fits that bill. Schenn slots on 3rd line now, but should be ready to take over 2nd line when Briere is done. They get a 2.6M cap relief, more or less what they'd need to resign Voracek. Bringing Simmonds in frees them to trade Versteeg for a pick, and use the Versteeg money on Simmonds with a bit of change. Trading/dumping Leighton, plus that bit of change gives them the cap they need to resign Nodl and Carcillo. The remaining cap they have is what they need to resign Leino and leaves them probably about 0.3-0.4M short of resigning Powe. However, they now sit on 13 forwards without Powe. Trading/demoting/buying out Jody Shelly gives them Powe plus about 0.7M towards a #6 D. Laperriere's prospective LTIR adds another 1.2M to that, or gives them a bit of room to carry over to the trade deadline. And if enough of the above players take discounts for resigning, or if I've exaggerated what they resign for, to the point of adding another 1M in cap to that, that gives them 3M or so, potentially just enough to fit a D picked 8th overall as that 3rd pairing D.

For the record, in the above I assumed Leino @ ~3.5M, Voracek and Simmonds @ ~ 2.5M, Nodl, Powe, and Carcillo @ 0.8-0.9.
June 23, 2011
Votes: +0

Paul's Coffey said:

Pauls Coffey
LA's Lines - Top 6 Williams is a RW
Smyth is a LW
So the projected depth chart is unlikely to be correct as is:
Williams-Kopitar-Brown
Penner-Richards-Smyth

More likely is:
Penner - Kopitar - Brown
Smyth - MRichards - JuWilliams

June 23, 2011
Votes: +0

Tim Rawstron said:

TRaw504
Ryan Smyth Lombardi confirmed Smyth has asked for a trade and expects a deal done in next few days. Assuming it's not a blockbuster since the Kings will only want players from Edmonton that they don't want to trade, does that trade free up the cap space for a solid Brad Richards run from LA? Not doubting my LA bias, just a thought and potential change needed in LA section in this article in the near future.
June 23, 2011
Votes: +0

fzusher said:

fzusher
Bob and waivers What determines waiver eligibility is # of games (regular and playoff) and seasons you've played. As per capgeek, Bob was waiver exempt for 4 years OR 60 games. Meaning, one game less last season and he can still be reassigned without waivers. Whether or not you started in the AHL matters no more as this is the off season. Last season's over.
June 23, 2011
Votes: +0

Rad64 said:

Rad64
... Vermette,

I was wondering how this hurts Vermette? He was productive on the second line with Umberger last season and is still the top draw man on the team. Huselius/Vermette/Umberger is a decent 2nd line...

Thanks,
Rad
June 23, 2011
Votes: +0

Hek said:

87Flyer
Bob From what I've been reading from the various Flyers sites over the last couple weeks Bob has hit the 60 game mark and is no longer safe to be sent down via waivers. I don't know all the rules specifically for waivers so I may be wrong with things. I did see someone mention that as long as he was in the AHL before the season started he was safe. If this though is not true then the other talk about Bob being moved may be more realistic as his salary cap hit next year is close to the 1.7 mark apparently. Thoughts?
June 23, 2011
Votes: +0

TheRook said:

TheRook
... Yeah Bob has to pass through waivers because he played 60 games total last year. So unless they can figure out a way to put him in the AHL (not sure if there is a way during training camp) he will be the backup. So you can add the additional 0.20 to the cap level to make up the difference of leighton and bob.

Wouldnt be surprised to see Leighton traded as a favor to him to give him another shot at playing in the NHL rather than staying in the AHL. Similar to what the flyers did with Boucher a few years ago.
June 23, 2011
Votes: +0

Ian said:

Reuben
... Thanks for the JVR update, Dobber. Great work, as always.

Really cool to have this summary up so quickly, so kudos to you and the dobberhockey fellows.
June 23, 2011
Votes: +0

fzusher said:

fzusher
Philly cap Resigning Leino, Voracek, Simmonds, Nodl, Carcillo, and Powe, all FAs, could take 10-12M in cap. They also need an upgrade on Sean O'Donnell on the 3rd pairing. According to capgeek, after these deals the Flyers have 7.57M available. Versteeg and Leighton add up to 4.5, so they'll have about 12M to sign these 7 players. Laperriere's 1.17M will be off the cap on LTIR at the end of the summer if he doesn't retire but I am guessing they'd rather absorb the cap hit and let him retire if they can.

Wasn't the word that Bobrovsky has to clear waivers to go to AHL? If they can demote him rather than trade Leighton that's 1.75M in cap saving instead of the 1.55M I factored on Leighton.

I'm wondering if they can parlay their 8th plus something to NYI to move up to the 5th and take Dougie Hamilton to be on their 3rd pairing this year and get mentored by Pronger?
June 23, 2011
Votes: +0

mick said:

hawkdog
oh ya thanks for the quick analysis!!!
June 23, 2011
Votes: +0

Lukasz said:

pahlsson26
Versteeg And what about Versteeg? You forgot to mention him smilies/smiley.gif.
June 23, 2011
Votes: +1

Dobber said:

Dobber
... JVR has been added, I moved some players around. I believe I have them all now. Spent a long time looking at it...so anyone missed, I would suspect are negligible (almost had Richards as negligible too, but in the end I didn't like his wingers so instead I added a note)
June 23, 2011
Votes: +0

DuklaNation said:

DuklaNation
... Given his playoff showing, this helps JVR more than anyone else IMO. His ice time is going up big. Disagree on the CBJ impact, Johansen will still be in there this season. He's just too good to hold back. CBJ will have more moves coming up to clear out the top 9 better.
June 23, 2011
Votes: +0

mick said:

hawkdog
JVR Doesn't this help JVR? where would he fit in you list? I would think, based on his coming out in the playoffs, he would be ahead of Leino?
June 23, 2011
Votes: +0

Dobber said:

Dobber
... Hartnell - yes, same
June 23, 2011
Votes: +0

mick said:

hawkdog
Hartnell How do you see this affecting Hartnell? I don't see him on your list - even/same?
June 23, 2011
Votes: +1

Dobber said:

Dobber
... JVR - total oversight.

Richards - just marginal. As I said in the write-up, it's a wash
June 23, 2011
Votes: +0

Maximus said:

Mr Zizzla
WOW! I am completely floored but as a Pens fan, this is all great news.

Players this helps
11. Jakub Voracek

How come he is listed so low dobber? i would think that playing with Giroux (and JVR), over Vermette/Brassard/Umberger would be a huge improvement in points and might iron out his consistency issues.

Do you think that Voracek will get better/worse/same numbers from last season?

June 23, 2011
Votes: +0

Pengwin7 said:

Pengwin7
Very Good Summary This is a very nice summary Dobber.
You have everything covered here quite well.

My own personal likes, dislikes, projections... I'll save for a day where my head is screwed on right and my heart isn't crushed.

Good work.
June 23, 2011
Votes: +0

dyzfunctioned said:

dyzfunctioned
... why do you think this hurts Richards? He'll get more icetime and should be relied on more to score, no?
June 23, 2011
Votes: +0

Ian said:

Reuben
... Likely just an oversight on a really busy day, Dobber, but shouldn't JVR be included in the "Who this helps" list?

I would think he'd be near the top of it, to be honest.
June 23, 2011
Votes: +1
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