Getzlaf

 

Think of the single most stressful moment you have ever experienced. I bet it involved the guilt of eating a chocolate bar, the anticipation of pain from a needle, the uncertainty of going in for a first kiss and the total fear of going skydiving all rolled into one. This moment is known as the Centerman Plunge and it happens at your fantasy draft every year.

 

Some thrive in this moment and others crumble at the sheer thought of it. You might plan for this moment days ahead of time. Others plan for weeks, and some even plan all year. Most will spend more time on this than they do planning their wedding. No matter how long you spend stewing about it though, everyone knows they will have to take the Plunge eventually, and I’ll bet you are ever so pleased I reminded you.

 

The decision to make the Plunge is not an easy one. Centermen are truly the Sirens of the fantasy world. They are so talented and so seductive but if they lure you in entirely they can ultimately cripple you. Sometimes you are lucky enough you can draft a Crosby or Stamkos and be done with it. Otherwise you are left with a serious debate. Can you afford to miss all “the can’t” miss talent up the middle?

 

When you take the Plunge is not even the biggest hurdle. You also have to decide who to take. There is a commonly held belief that you cannot miss at the beginning of a fantasy draft. In general it is true, but the fact remains that whomever you decide to take the Plunge on, it will impact the way you draft the rest of your roster.

 

With that in mind consider this week’s edition of Cage Match before you take the Plunge at your next draft.

 

Out of the delectable menu items that the center position has to offer, I’ve selected Eric Staal and Ryan Getzlaf to battle this week in a classic East Coast/West Coast battle we may even see in a Cup Final one of these years. So without further adieu, let’s get it on!

 

I often see people making the mistake of rating Getzlaf way higher than Staal. This has merit in points only pools where Getzlaf’s per game production has been way greater than Staal’s but Cage Match really isn’t about points only pools. It’s about debating value in a standard Yahoo! 6x4 league.

 

In those leagues the game between Getzlaf and Staal, which was very close to begin with, gets even closer. As food for thought here are last year’s numbers as well as a four year average for these two (since Getzlaf broke out four years ago).

 

Four Year Average

GP

Goals

Assists

Plus/Minus

PPP

PIM

SOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Staal

78.75

35

40.75

Minus-1.75

27.75

60

313.75

Getzlaf

72.75

21.75

57.75

Plus-13.75

30.5

82.25

169.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2010-11

GP

Goals

Assists

Plus/Minus

PPP

PIM

SOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Staal

81

33

43

Minus-10

29

72

296

Getzlaf

67

19

57

Plus-14

27

35

117

 

 

The first thing you will note is that Staal is the more durable player, and that is something I love. Staal has only had one season where he has missed more than one game and has only missed 14 games in his entire career. Getzlaf missed more than that just last season. I am not saying that Getzlaf is a band-aid boy, but I am saying that his having played in only 66 and 67 games in each of the last two seasons respectively is starting to concern me.

 

The next thing you probably noticed was that Staal was WAY better to own last season, winning the match up by a solid score of 3-2. The career averages are much closer but if anything Getzlaf has generally been the better own. This is where the averages deceive you though because the swing category is PIM and for Getzlaf the trend is downward. He responded to being named captain of the Ducks by putting in his lowest PIM total since his rookie season. We have seen many bruising players turned captain follow this same trend and I am inclined to conclude that Getzlaf is at best as good as Staal is in this category from now on.

 

It is worth noting that Staal, while also a captain, has been a steady but not outstanding producer of PIM. In only his rookie season did Staal produce less than 50 PIM in a season, which for what it’s worth, Getzlaf has done twice.

 

PPP is another tough category to judge. Staal has narrowly out-produced Getzlaf in this category each of the past two seasons but on average Getzlaf has been the stronger producer in this category. This is mainly attributable to the fact that Anaheim’s powerplay (3rd in the league at 23.5%) is way stronger than Carolina’s (24th at 15.9%) and because Getzlaf has much stronger personnel to play with on said powerplay. The Ducks have Lubomir Visnovsky along with Corey Perry, Teemu Selanne and Bobby Ryan as weapons for Getzlaf to dish to. Staal does not have such a supporting cast but help is on the way. Both Jamie McBain and Jeff Skinner were mere rookies this season. Expect a better performance from the Carolina powerplay in the future. For all intents and purposes however, consider this category tied.

 

Beyond those two troublesome categories it is all very straight forward. Staal consistently takes Goals and SOG, while Getzlaf owns Assists and Plus/Minus. That leaves you with a tie score at 2-2 and a really troublesome decision to make. The simple answer is that you will ultimately take whichever one is available when you decide to take the Plunge, but what happens when both are available?

 

You must decide here and now what your preferred flavour of centerman is. I prefer goal scorers. They are much harder to come by. I also prefer to own house in SOG. It is just something I feel you can depend on much more than Plus/Minus, which is a more fickle category from game to game and season to season.

 

Ultimately though, I like Staal’s durability here. Maybe Getzlaf is not a full blown band-aid boy but with Staal it is not even a question. Nor is it a question whether or not Staal will continue to put up reasonable PIM numbers. I am giving the match to Staal here while conceding that Getzlaf has the better chance of going off for an “upside season” because of his teammates.

 

In other words, I am taking the safe option but maybe you are a gambler. You’ll never really know until you take the plunge. I look forward to hearing about it in the comments section.


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Comments (14)add comment

Kyle said:

KyleP
... Just from this comment alone, "The first thing you will note is that Staal is the more durable player, and that is something I love. Staal has only had one season where he has missed more than one game and has only missed 14 games in his entire career" I am sure there are going to be many people who will see your point online casino
May 24, 2011
Votes: +0

Trevor Czerwinski said:

Flying Polak
Anaheims power play One point to consider and maybe someone knows something i don't but is Selanne coming back? Selanne was the true catalyst to Ana pp and although i love Brendan Mcmillans style of play(assuming Mcmillan takes selanne spot on pp because i think blake will be gone)he is no Selanne and i think ppp could be down for all Anaheim players if this is the case.
May 20, 2011
Votes: +0

duducks said:

duducks
... My main league doesn't count PIMs, and I still find myself prefering Getz over Staal. That Anahiem powerplay is insane, and in a H2H league, I don't mind if Getz misses some games during the season as long as he's there at the stretch, during my playoffs, producing.

You can expect Getz to win +/- next year, and I'd expect him to finish with 15+ points over Staal. Getz played a 93 point pace, and it wasn't even that good of a season. When I have the chance to draft someone with a chance at 100 points, vs someone who has a chance at 80 points, I'll take the 100. Part way through the season, you could if you wished, trade Getz for Staal+, and thats how I draft, by comparing the trade value.
May 19, 2011
Votes: +1

Marcus Lepkowski said:

Blueman
Staal vs Getzlaf When drafting in pools with position requirements I rarely take a C early on as I concentrate on top wingers and Goalies in the first few rounds with a top D as well in the mix. I usually pick C's in the late rounds as there are always a ton of them with value later on. For instance Stastny, Richards (Mike and Brad), etc are often around in rounds 5-7. No need to waste a pick on any C's early IMO.
May 18, 2011
Votes: +0

Woodrow said:

woodrow
... For me, I think I'd be choosing Staal over Getzlaf because obtaining a goal scoring shot producter seems to be just a little harder to find at the C position. As you pointed out, it looks that wearing the C for Getzlaf may see his PIMs drop somewhat, in this case making it a wash with Staal. Either would be an excellent choice, but Staal wins out for me.
May 18, 2011
Votes: +0

5hole said:

5hole
AS PENGWIN7 SAID The Fact that staal crushes getz in sog is worth more than getz just getting by in PIM's as we all know PIMs is the easiest Cat to aqcuire. Keep up the good work boys
May 18, 2011
Votes: +0

Pengwin7 said:

Pengwin7
Good Stuff Love the choice for the cage match.
The full amount of information here is great. You found a piece of gold... and you should make a BIG deal out of it for your readers.

You kind of pull everything out of your pocket and say "Here is some lint, here is a nickel, here is a dollar bill, here is some gold, here is a french fry, here is an old band-aid."

Pull that piece of gold out and say "HEY GUYS - I FOUND SOME EFFIN GOLD!".

Eric Staal outperforms Getzlaf significantly in SOG, year in & year out. When people think Getzlaf they think PIM. PIM guys are typically grit guys and you expect SOG. People perceive Getzlaf as a multi-cat monster because they assume, from the PIM, that he is very well-rounded. You present a flaw in Getzlaf that most people (myself included) weren't aware of: low SOG. Not only is Getzlaf's SOG low, but Staal's is quite high.

You use 7 lines to explain a stat where they are essentially tied (PPP) and then you have one or two lines about SOG. Hammer that SOG finding to death and beat your chest over its importance.

Overall, good stuff.
May 18, 2011
Votes: -1

mike hess said:

SharkMeat
Rankings Getzlaf has consistently been ranked higher than Staal over the past three years. While 7-10 higher ranking may not sound like much in the top 30 it is a big deal. Fortunately, Getlaf has always been gone when it is my turn to draft.

At least this very good article gives me pause and makes me rank them closer together to see who is available in the ranking.
May 18, 2011
Votes: +0

GMGates said:

GMGates
... and by DTDL I mean UHL !

smilies/grin.gif
May 18, 2011
Votes: +0

GMGates said:

GMGates
... I love this! I knew you would have a Staal article soon smilies/wink.gif

Why I like it? In the DTDL, Getzlaf went 1.9 and Staal fell to me at 3.50 smilies/kiss.gif

Great article all around!
May 18, 2011
Votes: +0

ultrawhiteness said:

ultrawhiteness
ace you are just killing it with this article series, Steve. awesome job.

i think SOG centerman are THE most underrated fantasy hockey asset to own.
May 18, 2011
Votes: +0

donions said:

donions
Trade I too had a chance to deal Staal for Getz last season, I saw them as too close to call so I traded Staal for Hall and Subban instead. The next day that same GM traded Staal for Getz.

Good write-up, these 2 have been the subject of a few debates in my league.
May 18, 2011
Votes: +0

horrorfan said:

horrorfan
Great job! Great job Steve, nicely written. I'm with you regarding going for the categories that are harder to fill, and would take Staal between the two.
May 18, 2011
Votes: +0

dennis said:

hannuemen
Getzlaf/Staal I actually just had this exact choice in my 6 keeper league this past year. I view these two as a wash and ended up moving Getzlaf/Fleury for Staal/1st.
May 18, 2011
Votes: +0
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