Turris

A sleeper for 2010-11, fixing a mistake, the future of Cory Schneider, and more…

 

1. Kyle Turris impressed the heck out of me down the stretch and in the first round against Detroit. He was rushed out of college by the Coyotes and struggled to adjust to the pace of the professional game over the past few years, which led to many in the hockey world to sour on his upside. Skill and hockey sense were never question marks with Turris, it has been about the physical tools – most notably size and strength. He looks much stronger on his skates now than he did a few years ago, and he is in a great situation to break out offensively in 2011-12.

 

Skill is only half of the equation with young players, there needs to be an opportunity as well. Turris didn’t have this last year, as the coaching staff didn’t trust him to play a regular shift in the top six. That changed over the course of the season. The Coyotes trusted Turris enough to center an “all-kids” line along with Brett MacLean and Mikkel Boedker. If you wrote Turris off as a bust, I hope you did it in pencil and not pen – time to get that eraser out.

 

2. Chris Kreider cracked my top 10 list for keeper league prospect forwards a few months ago. Not much time has gone by since I put that list together, but I think I would like a do over. I have seen Kreider play a few more times since compiling the list, and his lack of hockey sense is glaring. His size and speed have allowed him to stand out against his college opposition, but I question if he can do the same against professional hockey players. You can always develop speed and size, but hockey sense is nearly impossible to suddenly improve on (even as a young player).

 

To those of you who went out and acquired Kreider – don’t fret. I have been wrong more than once. It is also too early to write him off as a bust (just like the guy I wrote about above). He will make the NHL based on his speed and size, but his lack of hands and hockey sense will probably hold him back from realizing his full offensive potential.

 

3.  Columbus is disappointed with an awful 2010-11 from several of their forwards, including Jakub Voracek. Voracek has long been a favourite of mine – his Hossa-like strength and skating ability combined with his Jagr-like flowing locks, how could you not like the big Czech? It would be a huge mistake to sell low on him. One reason why I think Columbus is having trouble developing offensive forwards – the lack of puck movers on the back end. Huge difference between receiving a pass on the blade in a good area compared to trying to dig it off the boards after a chip out of the defensive zone.

 

4. Where will Cory Schneider end up? There will be no shortage of suitors – Toronto (Nonis loves him), Philadelphia (likely), and Tampa Bay (how long can Roloson continue to play?), among other teams. Philadelphia makes perfect sense. The Canucks won’t be able to get van Riemsdyk, but I could see the Flyers dangling a forward like Hartnell or Carter (Canucks would have to add more). Philadelphia would kill two birds – save some cap space, and open up more ice time for the budding stars (Giroux and the aforementioned van Riemsdyk).

 

5. It will be interesting to watch the Sabres this summer, as they now have an owner who is more than willing to spend money. The Sabres are deep up front, and they have some solid young players. They could use a puck mover or two… Christian Ehrhoff or Joni Pitkanen would both be great finds (depending on the cost, of course). Up front, Lindy Ruff will have several options. I assume Vanek and Roy will be together, probably with Tyler Ennis. A legitimate second line center may help, and there is a lot of potential on the wings with Brad Boyes, Drew Stafford, Nate Gerbe, Luke Adam, Zach Kassian, and Jason Pominville.

 

The back end looks solid as well. Myers and Leopold are signed through 2011-12, and Gragnani, Sekera, Weber, and Butler are all RFA’s. Look for Buffalo to contend with Boston next season in the Northeast.

 

6. Where does Simon Gagne end up? The unrestricted free agent had a strong finish to the regular season in Tampa Bay (although he is currently sidelined with a concussion). He turned 31 back in February although it seems as if he has been around forever, and probably has a few years left as a top six winger. Do the Lightning re-sign him? Does he still have fantasy value?

 

7. Sticking with unrestricted free agency, all eyes are on Montreal to see what they do with Andrei Markov. Will he be able to overcome two very serious knee injuries in about seven months? Do the Habs cut him loose and opt to re-sign James Wisniewski instead? PK Subban’s emergence as a top pairing defenseman will make whatever decision they make easier. Here is a great breakdown on the Markov situation.

 

8. One more point on the Canadiens – if they can find a way to bury a bad contract (cough Scott Gomez cough), I really like their chances as a contending team in the Eastern Conference. They need to add a few defensemen this summer, but the key pieces are in place. Carey Price, PK Subban, Josh Gorges, Max Pacioretty, Mike Cammalleri, and Tomas Plekanec is a very nice core to build around. The Habs are going to free up a ton of money this summer, as they only have six forwards and two defensemen signed through 2011-12.

 

9. A final note on Montreal – it must sting for Habs fans to watch #2 on the American team at the World Championships right now. Ryan McDonagh looks like a 10-year veteran. The offense will come next season – it took him this season to figure the defensive side of the puck out. He’ll never be an elite producer but should settle in nicely as a second pairing quarterback capable of both setting up and finishing plays.

 

10. Two sides to the Alex Semin playoff struggles coin. One – he has been a huge flop for consecutive springs, after proving that he can be an elite player at the NHL level. Is he unable to elevate his compete level to where it needs to be? Can he fight through tight checking and constant physical pressure? Both of those questions have an answer, and it doesn’t begin with the letter y. Two – his fantasy value should be unaffected (or affected only a bit). Playoff scoring has no impact on regular season pools. Semin is a great winger to own in almost any league format, and there will be no shortage of poolies sour on him after another bad spring.

 

The risk of fleeing to the KHL exists, but at this point it does for the majority of Russian NHL players. Semin’s value has never been lower (save for this time last year), and he’s money in the bank for 30-40 goals in 2011-12.

 

11. The Calgary Flames have several veteran centers under contract for next season, including Daymond Langkow ($4.5 million), Matt Stajan ($3.5 million), and Olli Jokinen ($3 million). It will be hard to add a legitimate first line center with those three taking up roster spots (as well as a significant chunk of the salary cap).

 

12. Another played poised for a breakout next season – Patrik Berglund. Berglund had 11 goals and 24 points in 32 post All-Star games. He had 76 shots on goal in those 32 games, well ahead of his first-half pace. He wasn’t going to come in and dominate over night, especially with his size and skill combination. Big, skilled forwards usually take another year or two to really find their way. Berglund has been the best player at the World Championships for Sweden, as well. If you own him in your pool, count your blessings.

 

13. Tampa Bay and Boston… I am not sure how to call this one. On the surface, it should be low scoring with two fantastic goaltenders. The Lightning have an immobile defense, but Guy Boucher’s 1-3-1 scheme hides it very well. Gamebreakers definitely favour the Bolts, although David Krejci is having as good a second round as any forward. To those Philadelphia fans who say I am looking ahead (which I am), this isn’t 2009-10. No/injured Chris Pronger, no chance.

 

14. I do my best to respond to as many questions as I can. In addition to writing and managing this site, I am a personal trainer with a full client base in my “other” life. If you have a fantasy hockey question, send me an e-mail or fire me a note on twitter. I’ll do my best to answer it within 48 hours. DobberHockey has grown immensely over the past few years, but the essence is the same – a community of like-minded hockey fans with opinions to share.

 

15. This is the first year that I will be a contributing writer to the DobberHockey Prospects Report (which is out in a little over three weeks). This thing is just as (if not more) important than the Pool Guide if you want to win your keeper league. Pick it up here.

 

Elliotte Friedman’s weekly 30 Thoughts column on the CBC website is the best read in hockey. Friedman is insightful, articulate, knowledgeable, fair, and most importantly, interesting. He has sources and contacts in the hockey world that most could only dream of. Most importantly, has an ability which is rare in this day and age - providing a balanced and reasonable opinion on the league, the players, and all 30 of the clubs.


Each week I will post my own observations (I couldn’t completely steal Friedman’s idea so I’ll pick a number other than 30) with a heavy emphasis on the fantasy side of hockey, of course. Prospects, goalies, sleepers, busts, it will all be covered each week.

 


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Comments (29)add comment

Will said:

will878
... Count me as one who thinks Luongo is merely adequate.

I can't rmember the last time he stole a game for us. He holds the fort a lot of times as well as suck at other times.

Cory had 2.23 GAA and .929 SV%. No dropoff really 'cept if you're talking salary.

Playing behind a great def. and a Prez trophy team has a way of helping the numbers.
May 07, 2011
Votes: +0

tGr said:

27Blue
... does a 2.11 GAA and .928 SV% sound adequate? not to mention a vezina nomination...

come on people...
May 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Jeff Angus said:

angus
... After Lundqvist, there isn't a single goalie I'd rather own in a keeper league than Luongo. That's my opinion.
May 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Larry said:

Rollie1967
Carter wont wear blue/green @ Austin- even if the Nucks resigned their RFA's(Lapierre,Higgins,Glass,Hansen) to fill their 20man roster with ZERO raises (not likely) and resigned Bieksa to no raise, that would leave them with enought cap space- for 1 extra player at league minimum (not including any cap raise), which is too tight against the cap.
While none of their RFA should be demanding big raises (theyre reasonably priced now)Ehrhoff and Bieksa will be hot commoditites, slight chance of a hometown discount- especially for Bieksa and Salo.
Lack as a backup doesnt save them any cash- he makes the same as Schneider (and that 900k hit would look very attractive to teams against the cap-even if its for 1 year)
Carter makes 5.2million for 10yrs..... thats a tuff contract to take on.
May 07, 2011
Votes: +0

James Smith said:

jeamcasmith99
Luongo - Elite or Merely Adequate?? Angus,

Do you disagree with Dobber's take on Luongo? It seems as though you do.

Luongo wasn't good against Chicago. I think we can all agree on that. It wasn't all his fault, but he didn't help the cause.

Dobber dismisses Luongo's performance so far against the Preds.... weak offense, no star forwards, less prime scoring chances, mostly perimeter shots, etc.

Dobber believes Luongo is merely an adequate goalie, nothing more. If Luongo is indeed merely an adequate goalie, then given his huge contract any GM who understands the cap world we live in SHOULD and WOULD trade Luongo while keeping Schneider on a cheaper contract.

I've found that non-Vancouver fans generally think Luongo is nothing special, whereas Vancouver fans like yourself give him a much longer leash. Is that because of homerism or because they've seen Luongo play more and can objectively judge his abilities better?

Where do you officially stand on this Angus?

Personally, I agree with Dobber on this one.
May 07, 2011
Votes: +0

Jeff Angus said:

angus
... The number one priority this summer (at the moment) for the Canucks is a legit winger for Kesler.

Luongo won`t get dealt - zero chance. He has handled the insane amount of pressure very well over the past few weeks.

Schneider - odds of him getting dealt are 60 40 this summer, and much greater by the deadline next season.
May 06, 2011
Votes: +0

fzusher said:

fzusher
On second thought If VAN likes the Raymond-Hodgson-Hansen combo as a 3rd line for next year, they would need a winger for the Kesler line. I could see a Schneider for Clarkson deal but the Kesler line would need an LW, not RW. So it may be better to think which team needs a goalie and can spare a second line LW with question marks - because Schneider comes with the question mark of being unproven as a starter.

And yes, Hartnell would be a fit there, but VAN won't have the cap for him unless they go cheap on D.
May 06, 2011
Votes: +0

Tim Lucarelli said:

duballstar014
... Great stuff Jeff.

I don't think Philly will go after Schneider. Not unless the price tag is extremely low.

Gagne - he will be taking a pay cut no matter where he goes, that is for certain. With that in mind, I think he really has only two targets on his mind, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. If Yzerman is willing to bring him back for around $3M, give or take 500k, then I'm sure Gagne would love to stay. If not, I guarantee his agent will call Philadelphia to ask about a return. The Flyers have brought fan favorites back on numerous occasions and they would be more than happy to squeeze him in at half of his current price tag.
May 06, 2011
Votes: +0

fzusher said:

fzusher
Schneider; Buffalo Schneider:

I don't see Philly or Tampa going for him as a first choice.
Tampa - you're right that they have a now-ish window, and that's why Schneider is tricky - he's still unproven as a starter. He's where Mike Smith was when they acquired him, and we all know how that turned out. I expect them to go after Vokoun, who's already stated doesn't want to leave Florida, where Tampa is also located last time I checked. Panthers don't really need him because of Markstrom etc.
Philly - would also prefer someone more proven, for the same reason. Plus they have their future set - Bobrovsky has shown enough this season to be considered their near future starter, with perhaps no more than a year of more experience on the small rink and especially with the long schedule. I really like trading for Nabby as their solution - experienced starter, affordable cap hit, and a perfect mentor for Bobrovsky (they have similar physical dimension, arrived in North America at the same age, and come from the same region - Nabby's home town is now in Kazakhstan, but its in the Kazakh part of Siberia, right on the border of with Russia, and only 500 km. from Bobrovski's home town. Roughly the same as the distance between Edmonton and Saskatoon, and that's a really good analogy.

A situation that makes a lot more sense to me for Schneider would be a team where he would be brought in to gradually take over the reigns from a current goalie who will be leaving/retiring, split this season, and become starter next season. So I vote Devils.

But the other side to the equation is Vancouver's needs - what gap in their roster or system would they be looking to fill with Schneider as trade chip? With the Sedins and Burrows, Kesler, Raymond and Samuelsson, Malhotra and Hodgson signed into next season, plus Lapierre and Hansen RFAs, Schroeder and Sweatt in the wings, forward is hardly a need. They could probably use a D body or two, as I doubt they can resign all of Ehrhoff, Bieksa, and Salo, but Schneider alone wouldn't fetch more than something similar to him - a good prospect D on the cusp of full time NHL duty. On the Devils the best I see are Matt Corrente or Alexander Urbom, both of whom could replace Bieksa's physicality (Corrente fights more, Urbom hits more) but likely not his offence. Still, if Vancouver resign Ehrhoff, then what they'll need is a shutdown guy (yes I think Ballard bounces back). So on second thought, if they can resign both Ehrhoff and Bieksa, Urbom as an entry-level third pairing guy who throws his body around is not bad.

Buffalo:

Though Regier has more money to work with now, a person whose acted conservatively for years doesn't become a huge risk taker overnight. So I'm not convinced he'd be a major player in the FA market, at least not for players commanding multi-year contracts that take them into the next CBA - with one exception (below). I think it more likely he'll look for trades in which he acquires players with one year left on their contract from teams needing salary/cap relief, making use of some of the many young assets he has.
I also doubt he slots Ennis on the Roy-Vanek line: they've already gone on record as looking to add size up front. So they'll look for an RW with size and skill, as well as a 2nd line C to put between Stafford and Pominville, put Gerbe/Ennis on a line with Gaustad/Hecht and Boyes, and go the FA route to acquire a top 4th line LWs to put with Hecht/Gaustad and Kaleta. An experienced top-4 or 2 are also needs.

The one exceptional scenario in terms of pursuing top FAs is that, if they are willing to break the Vanek-Roy pairing, I can see them going hard for Brad Richards, and actually having a realistic chance of landing him. Then Ennis would work on a Vanek-Richards line, with the size of Stafford and Pominville/Boyes making a potent second line with Roy.
May 06, 2011
Votes: +1

Repent Tokyo said:

repenttokyo
to all those who say that schneider is as good as luongo would you care to share the crystal ball you have been gazing into that gives you such a clear view of the future?
May 06, 2011
Votes: +0

Jeff Angus said:

angus
... Pacioretty was coming on before the injury. Gorges is one of the better defensive defensemen in the league. Not to mention he played the last seven years without an ACL. I am definitely not `kidding`
May 06, 2011
Votes: +0

Ryan said:

letnry
... Good stuff! Appreciate the read!
May 06, 2011
Votes: +0

Will said:

will878
Trade Luongo not Schneider!!! Please explain to me Jeff Angus how Vancouver will be able to fit Hartnell and Carter's contracts??

Trading Luongo for Carter/Hartnell makes a lot more sense than trading Schneider for the following reasons:

1. Even though Schneider is probably as good a goalie as Luongo, Luongo is more proven and has higher trade value. So while you would need to add to Schneider to get Carter/Hartnell, you probably won't need to do that with Luongo.

2. Luongo has around the same cap hit as Carter/Hartnell, so a Luongo-Carter/Hartnell swap would work for Vancouver under the cap. If Vancouver trades Schneider without moving out Luongo and his big contract, how are they going to fit Carter/Hartnell? Not going to happen unless they move out another big contract.

3. Cap space is a commodity! As a Vancouver fan, why would you want to trade Schneider (who's pretty much as good as Luongo) + a prospect/draft pick (whatever is needed to even out the value) + cap space to Philly in exchange for Carter/Hartnell when you can trade Luongo straight up for Carter/Hartnell and have Vancouver enjoy the extra cap space and keep the prospect/draft pick that they would otherwise have to add if they're trading Schneider.
May 06, 2011
Votes: +0

David Goodburn said:

davidgoodburn
Schneider vs. Luongo Hi Angus,

What are your thoughts on Vancouver trading Luongo instead of Scheider? Trading Luongo to PHI for Carter and a bad PHI contract seems to make sense?
May 06, 2011
Votes: +0

Renegade said:

Renegade
Schneider Hartnell for Schneider? Where do I sign the petition?
May 06, 2011
Votes: +0

Marc said:

MGW
loco man trade @ loco man...I love the Berglund & EJ for Green move.

I definitely see 80+ in Berglund's future. Sundin is exactly who I would compare him to, and he's surrounded by talent on a deep Blues team.
May 06, 2011
Votes: +0

Pengwin7 said:

Pengwin7
Schneider and Other Items 1. I disagree that any top tier team will trade for Schneider. PHI & WAS have both been disappointed in the play of their "young" goalies. Tampa Bay has done well with the play of their "veteran" goalie. What Schneider has not experienced yet is the pressure of being relied upon as the #1 goalie. Halak & Howard felt it this year. Outside of Antti Niemi, it seems that most young goalies thrust into a #1 role become quite shaky with that #1 responsibility. And Vancouver's cap situation... do they even have room to take on a big salary like Jeff Carters? A Schneider trade makes no sense to me. Vancouver's best option here is to hold him one more year and get him to his RFA summer. At that point, they should at least wait on an offer sheet for him where they can decide whether they want to take the draft picks - which is the best way to get value without eating at your Cap space. My opinion: Schneider stays in VAN.

2. Great info on Turris & Kreider. Kreider fell into my lap in a dynasty league. I know nothing about him. Turris is a guy I don't have a feeling on... your insight helps!

3. Montreal does not have a "very nice core to build around". Gorges, MaxPac... are you kidding here? And I predict that most of MON's UFA will choose to go elsewhere. I hate speculating on this - but I don't think there is much respect for PK - even in his own lockerroom. I watched player after player leave Atlanta as UFAs... a team where Ilya Kovalchuk (with all his lollygagging) got all the start treatment. Gritty, modest two-way players do NOT like it when accolades are given to undeserving "stars". Watch and wait. I predict that only one of MON's five UFA D will re-sign. (They'll overpay for somebody). I just can't see that MON locker room being a veteran-type locker room.
May 06, 2011
Votes: +0

loco man said:

loco man
Berglund Great job, Jeff. LOVE the Berlund piece, as I took a big risk and shipped Mike Green for Berglund and E. Johnson, hoping that Bergy emerges. Could be this generation's Mats Sundin. I am expecting 30-30 next year, with a ceiling of 85 points in his prime. Does this sound about right?
May 06, 2011
Votes: +0

5hole said:

5hole
Van's Tending What about something bigger, Like Van shipping Luongo over to Philly for Brier?
That would give Van a Clutch Playoff Performer & Philly a #1 Goalie!!!
May 06, 2011
Votes: +0

Rad64 said:

Rad64
... Another great read, Jeff. I'm still praying for a Vokoun landing in Philly! Schneider would be a great fit in Colorado. Schneider as the #1 with Elliot as the backup. That would be a very good group of youngsters.
May 06, 2011
Votes: +0

Shoeless said:

Shoeless
Markov Good article you dug up, Jeff.
May 06, 2011
Votes: +0

Austin said:

austeane
Schneider and the cap You have a point but I think it would work with the cap. Honestly I think we are only going to sign one of Bieksa and Ehrhoff with Salo retiring.

Lack has been the rookie of the year in the AHL and one of the top 5 goalies period. I think that he is ready to be a NHL backup.

With the samuellson and Scneider for carter and a third I could see it looking like this

Sedin Sedin Burrows/Carter
Higgins Kesler Carter/Burrows
Raymond Malhotra Hodgson
4th liner Lapierre Hansen

Edler (bieksa or ehrhoff)
Hamhuis Ballard
Tanev (Alberts rome or a prospect)

Luongo
Lack

May 06, 2011
Votes: +0

Larry said:

Rollie1967
Shneider Schneider is a great chip the Nucks could play- but they would still need a 2nd goalie- so either they think Lack is ready after 1 year in North America, or they get a decent/cheap goalie back. As much as I would love to see Carter in blue/green, I dont think his cap hit works. If they lose something on defense that they cant replace via free agency-then maybe they deal him,but I would think resigning Bieksa,Ehrhoff is their top priority. Possibly Salo (at a reduced salary for 1yr) and then fill out there 3rd,4th lines- and Lapierre and Higgins have both played well, as have Hodgson and OReskevich. Maholtra's status will also play into it, otherwise I think they keep Schneider for the whole year (or atleast till the trade deadline) and re-evaluate their roster then.
May 06, 2011
Votes: +0

emustyle said:

emustyle
Schneider Any chance Schneider could go to NJD? I don't recall there being too much in the pipeline for the Devils and you'd have to wonder how much more is left in Brodeur's tank?? Just a thought.
May 06, 2011
Votes: +0

Jeff Angus said:

angus
... Tokarski... maybe. The window to win in TB is now-ish, I don't think they want to wait around.
May 06, 2011
Votes: +0

Jerry said:

CallMeJerry
Schneider I will eat my hat if the Canucks can grab a player the calibre of Carter for Schneider. I see the Canucks getting a good (not great) prospect or a valuable vet contributor like Carle or Meszeros. Halak got a decent (but not great) prospect in Eller for Montreal. True Halak doesn't come with the great 900K cap hit for next season but Halak was waaaaaayyyyyy more proven having carried a team through 3 rounds of playoff hockey. Philly has gambled on unproven entities in net and lost. They cannot trade away a key piece like Carter to gamble on an unproven Schneider.

On the other hand, I really like the taste of hat.
May 06, 2011
Votes: +1

Austin said:

austeane
... "Tampa Bay and Boston…" So you are not likin the chances of another come from behind by the Flyers?

On Schneider... I could see him and Samuellson for Carter and a third.

I personally think that Columbus will swing a trade for a puck-mover and I think Voracek is a candidate for a big breakout... Huge upside.

May 06, 2011
Votes: +0

Killer said:

Killer67
TB Goalie Situation I'm worried about the Lightning being on the hunt for more goalies. Do you guys not think Desjardins or Tokarski are the next guys in line for that job?
May 05, 2011
Votes: +0

praba said:

praba
... turris- i always thought he would be the best out of kane and jvr...right now that looks very, very, bad. still have hope though.

schneider- to the leafs? yea nonis loves him, but they have nothing to offer and it's pointless with the emergence of reimer. nucks could get a better deal for sure...so i agree philly is the most likely scenario.
May 05, 2011
Votes: +0
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