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| Written by Dobber | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Monday, 21 February 2011 16:50 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fantasy Impact: Dallas has traded James Neal and Matt Niskanen to the Pittsburgh Penguins for Alex Goligoski.
The Penguins get: a potential first-line winger and a solid young No.4 d-man with some upside.
The Stars get: a power-play quarterback with a lot of upside.
Fantasy Players Impacted: Finally, a winger on the Penguins who has fantasy value. Sure, Chris Kuntis remains on the top line, but now the team can stop pretending that Pascal Dupuis has any business up there. James Neal is now a Sidney Crosby linemate. His upside was probably in the low 80s - but that was in Dallas. With (a healthy) Sidney Crosby, who is still two years or more from his prime, on his line for the next several years, it is certainly feasible for Neal to get way beyond that low-80s upside. Ninety? A hundred? That would depend on Crosby and his continued growth. But WOW. Neal keeper league owners, feel free to take some time to yourself, close your eyes, and bask in your good fortune.
Oh, there were other players involved? Sorry, I got a little carried away. Matt Niskanen is a solid No.4 defenseman who can run the second PP unit. It's a role that the Penguins needed, given Kris Letang's breakthrough season. But I don't think he can get more than 45 points, barring a Letang injury. As for Goligoski, he is now the undisputed No.1 PP quarterback in Dallas. This actually helps him in the short term. I think he's a 55-point defenseman in Dallas, which is great - for now. Long term, he'll never be that 70-point rearguard that he could have been in Pittsburgh as he grew with that team. But take this as a 'win' for this year and for next year, Goligoski owners.
Dallas clears $2.5 million in salary, which will help them re-sign Brad Richards. I think the odds of him re-signing just went up significantly.
Dobber's Note: I wish there was a way to make every reader understand what I write. I know the majority of you do, but there are some who also get carried away. The amount of emails I received either applauding or denying my statement about James Neal and breaching the subject of 100 points... it worries me. James Neal is not going to get 100 points. I would bet $1000 on it right now. Would I bet $100,000? No. That is where my definition of "upside" comes in. Neal's Upside was 80 points, and his "likely three-year peak" I had as 71 points. The move from Dallas to Pittsburgh, to me, pushes his upside to 95 and his 3YP to 78 or 79. That's a huge jump in the fantasy world. I mused about 100 points, but that's all it was - musing. If Joe Thornton can make Jonathan Cheechoo a 93-point player, than why can't Crosby do the same to Neal? After all, prior to the Thornton trade, I had Cheechoo's upside at 70. With Neal at 80...aren't his odds even better?
Fantasy Players this helps, in order: 1. James Neal big gap still a gap more gap 2. Alex Goligoski (short term - 1.5 years) 3. Sidney Crosby 4. Chris Kunitz Fantasy Players this hurts, in order: 1. Pascal Dupuis 2. Matt Niskanen 3. Alex Goligoski (long term - the high-end upside) 4. Brad Richards (22 of Neal's points was on a line with Richards and Eriksson)
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Comments (25)
JOHNNNY
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... This affects JAMIE BENN just a lil I would say. Benn has/had way more upside on the 1 line anyways. Can he stay healthy and maintain his style of play? |
Maximus
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Keepers vs. One year and others... @kevin One year leagues usually require a lot less DEEP analysis and you're right, for a 1 year league the player to own would probably be Goligoski short of Crosby secretly practicing without the team and then magically appearing this week in the roster. the majority of people on this site (correct me if i am wrong Dobber) are in keeper leagues and are looking long term. hell, even as a 1 year pooler, you should see dollar signs around Neal's name for your draft next year and after that (if/when he resigns), maybe he's not a slam dunk this year but even without Crosby in the lineup, he becomes arguably the best offensive player (the other option: Pascal Dupuis....no, no just kidding of course i mean Staal) on the Penguins which boosts his value slightly. The Penguins powerplay sorely lacked a big body net-front presence, no offense Kunitz or Crosby, that can reek havoc, create space for himself and hammer home the garbage or snipe a few from in close and now they have that. The Penguins PP sucks even with Malkin and Crosby AND Kunitz all healthy and as a fan, i get more excited when they are on the PK seeing as they get as many scoring chances and shots when they are a man down as they are with a man up but i digress. Back to my point, even in a 1 year league, the change of scenery and style of play could see Neal doing very well with/without Crosby as he has the talent and opportunity to do so. Shero and Bylsma will be routing for Neal to succeed and unlike in DAL where he was slumping and moved off the top PP (correct me if i am wrong on that) he will get all the chances in the world to get his groove back, do you really think Brett Sterling or Kunitz's return will bump him down the depth chart? I certainly don't think so. Neal is the Penguins only potential game-breaking top 2 winger, Kunitz being top 4 and more complimentary than game breaking in my opinion so short of Neal absolutely not getting the system and just playing terrible, terrible hockey (at a lower level than the AHL call-ups), he will be getting 17+ mins a night and chances to do his thing night in and night out. Shut down Crosby for the year and that does not change a thing. so for 1 year poolers, Neal is still a good pick-up but don't overpay, that much should be clear without Angus, Dobber, et al. telling you that. @ Jerry "Bottom line: name me one player who has benefitted statistically from playing with Crosby. " name me one WINGER that has had the skill set to keep up with Crosby. Aside from Hossa, which is a terrible example to use as they barely got a chance to play together due to both of their injuries and is too small of a sample size, he hasn't had an elite talent on his wings YET. He plays as though he is on an island which is why he adapted and became a scorer because if you watch more than his highlight reels, you will see that guys like Guerin, Roberts, Dupuis, Ekman etc., etc., are simply not good enough to play with him. I watched as Guerin (especially last year but even the year before that) missed empty net after empty net as Crosby would draw the defenders, create space for Guerin and feed him a pass that would go right through his stick as if it was a hologram! If Guerin was about 10 years younger, those pucks are going in and Guerin hits 50 goals, i am not exaggerating Guerin missed about 30-40 beautiful chances a year. Crosby decided then that "hey, maybe i should shoot more since my teammates can handle playing with me" so he goes on to have a 51 goal season and probably a 60+ goal year this year because Kunitz and Dupuis just weren't good enough. Now Crosby has a potential ELITE winger and let's see what he does with him and judge from there, here's hoping we find out in a month and not 7. |
kevin
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One Year All the talk on this trade is about Crosby boosting Neal's value. I accept that this is likely, but I play a single season league. For us guys I think this trade is a wash for Neal at best, as Neal is unlikely to see significant time with Crosby the rest of this year. There is a huge disparity in the analysis between keepers and non-keepers which no-one has mentioned. |
Jerry
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... Dobber, you've got quite a way with selecting stats that suit your purposes. Bottom line: name me one player who has benefitted statistically from playing with Crosby. |
Jocular Hockey Manager
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Goli I agree greatly with Dobber's assessment. I really like the winner/loser side of the deal showing Goli on both sides. Making assumptions that Neal or Goli rise/fall substantially is silly. Very seldom a player has their points change significantly after a deal. Consider very carefully. Neal played with Richards/Eriksson. VERY desirable. Goli spent significant time with Crosby/Malkin. VERY desirable. Now they change spots. Really, what's the difference? Not much. The bigger fear is that these young players struggle emotionally with the trade. That they take time to adjust to their new environment, new teammates, new coaches, new systems. That what had been a comfortable situation, in regard to housing & family, is disrupted. These are very common problems for players after being traded. How quickly will they adapt? Goli is a little older and has had to do more previous adaptations. This will be his sixth team since 2003. Neal can say this is his sixth team since 2004. However, all steps to this point for Neal, are clearly normal and expected developmental path. I believe Neal particularly enjoyed living with Brad Richards. Either player could have an adaptation period to their new environment. |
Dobber
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... Jerry, you're not comparing Neal to Sykora and Satan are you? And Crosby at age 23 to Crosby at age 19? Is that what you're comparing? LOL Anyway, I was right about Sykora - he went from a 35-point dropsy to 63 points. Injuries hurt my projections, you can't fault me that Kunitz - 18 points in the final 20 games of that season - I WAS BANG ON. He was hurt the next year. Again injuries. This year he had 22 points in 23 games before Crosby went down. If you're going to pick me apart (and it seems as though it's your mission right now), find something else. This is not it. I was spot on with Sykora, Kunitz and Satan - and injuries are not my fault. I'm wrong 48% of the time - not about this. Did you read my clarification in italics above? I wish readers like you would understand what I'm trying to say - expect a big jump in production. It correctly happened with Sykora, Satan and Kunitz. Upside increases - upside is "possible", it's not "gospel". Thanks for pulling my track record of actually being right. You could have dug up some real bad doozies, but you chose to pull up quotes that actually came to pass. Thank you. |
Pontus Andersson
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Crosby not a setup man.... Actually lokking at the stats, he is more of a setup man than JT and B. Richards. Crosby had 34 assists in 41 games - 68 assists over season (playing basically with crap, yes even Malkin has been close to crap this season...) JT has 35 in 58 which prorates 50 over season, playing with Heatley, Marleau B. Richards has 39 in 56 which prorates to 57 over a season, playing with Eriksson, Neal H. Sedin has 58 in 60 which prorates to 79, which leads the league, yes he beats Crosby, but he plays with Daniel. As a fellow Swede I will not argue that Sedin is a better setup man. |
Jerry
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Blasts from the past Thanks to google for this walk down memory lane: Jul07 Sykora signs as a free agent - Dobber says: First of all, congratulations to all those keeper-league owners of Petr Sykora. You’ve just struck gold. After watching five straight campaigns of never crossing the 60-point barrier, it got to the point where Sykora was a dropsy in many fantasy formats – had he signed somewhere else. Now that he is in Pittsburgh, his 81-point career high in 2000-01 is in jeopardy. There is no question the team picked him up with the expressed purpose of sticking him on Sidney Crosby’s line. If they don’t click, there’s always Evgeni Malkin. Cha-ching! (He got 63 pts then 46 the next season) Jul08 Satan signs as a free agent - Dobber says: Satan is 34 in the fall and is two years removed from clearing 60 points. Then again, so was Petr Sykora last year (the points part, anyway). If he's going to resurrect his career, it's here and now. Look for 30 goals and 65 points again. (he got 36 points in 65 games) Feb09 Kunitz traded to Pitt - Dobber says: Chris Kunitz – This 55-point winger was already blessed with time on a line with Getzlaf and Perry this year and Teemu Selanne and Andy McDonald in years past. Suddenly, he’s thrust onto a line with either Malkin or Crosby. The only time I have seen luck like this was when Mike Knuble went from Joe Thornton’s line in Boston to Peter Forsberg’s in Philadelphia. Add 10 more points to Kunitz’s upside and possibly 20 if he really clicks. (Has not approached career best of 25G-35A) |
Jerry
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... I wish I could compile the analysis from every time Pittsburgh got a new player. Not just in the Crosby era but with Jagr and before that Lemieux too. Every breakdown is much the same as today's with Neal. Expecting a big jump in production. I've been sucked in in the past too. I'm not saying Crosby/Jagr/Lemieux aren't/weren't incredible talents - it's just some players don't boost their linemates totals just by being their linemates. Gretzky, Henrik, Thornton, Oates, yes. Crosby - the available evidence says no - he is not one of those types of players. That's not a knock on Crosby whatsoever. It is a knock on the analysts that misread the situation over and over and over and over again. |
r22yu
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re: counterpoint on neal Jerry, have you ever thought that Crosby became a shooter and goal scorer because he had two plugs that couldn't put it in? (ie. Kunitz and Dupuis). James Neal is an entirely different beast, he can score and gives Crosby the option of passing again. |
Jerry
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... Dobber, Kunitz' best season in Anaheim was 25G-35A. He hasn't approached that in Pittsburgh. What's this 15% bump you're talking about? Are you counting Kunitz's first (partial) season? Cheechoo? Check my OP - I mention Henrik, Brad Richards and Thornton as great set up men. Thornton can boost a guy's totals. Look what Henrik is doing with ECHL Burrows. Erikson is a nice player but he is as high as he is in the scoring race because of Richards. Crosby is not that kind of player. He is the focal point. Much like Lemieux was. Back in the day, everyone always got in a tizzy when Lemieux got a new linemate - but who ever got a boost playing with Lemieux? |
Dobber
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... Jerry, Kunitz is up about 15% in production. So will Neal - see the note I added above in italics for some clarification. |
Jeff Angus
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... Winners of this trade: 1. Neal 2. Neal 3. Neal 4. Crosby 5. Scott Glennie (long term) 6. Steve Ott 7. Paul Martin 8. Matt Niskanen (less pressure) Sell high on Neal if you are the type to bet 50 on black and 50 on red at the same time. Live a little! |
Jerry
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Counter point on Neal It seems to be accepted as a given that any player that gets to play with Crosby will skyrocket in value. Why is this? Kunitz is producing no more than when he was a Duck and Dupuis' output did not increase. Crosby is a scorer now. He a great passer but he's not a pure set up man like Henrik, Brad Richards or Thornton. The way I see it, Neal was in a better spot with Richards and Erickson. In terms of trade value, though, with all the hype he's getting, no question Neal owners get a boost. I say sell high on him now. His value will never be higher. |
Andrew K
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Neal I'm saying that he's a 40-35 guy. 45-45 guy maybe with Crosby. No way in hell he hits 100. |
Thomas K
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So happy As both a Pens fan and a James Neal fan and owner I am so happy about this trade I might start crying. Now I have Kunitz and Neal. That's almost like owning half of Crosby. |
tradejunkie
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Niskanen You think Niskanen can get worse than what he was doing in Dallas (0G, 6A in 45GP)? I am hoping for a bump up from Niskanen from the change in scenery, and from having more tools to play with on PIT. |
Bender
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Neal and Goligoski I own both players and this trade makes me happy. At this point, Letang's presence hurt Goligoski's upside, so the fact that he's going to be the top PP in Dallas could be positive even long term. And Neal playing with either Crosby or Malkin next year and for the playoffs should be fun to watch. |
Dean Read
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... Think this could help Benn? Looks like they kind of made him their prized youngster over Neal. Might hurt guys like Tangradi and Jeffrey in the Pens system too... And could this be the end of Robidas on the Dallas PP? |
Dean Youngblood
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Eriksson Impact? You have to think that this trade can't help Loui Eriksson that much (especially short term) Who replaces Neal in the Dallas lineup? Clearly that person will benefit too. |
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