Janssen

 

Just like in weeks five and 10, I will be giving an analysis on team’s defensive tendencies at home versus on the road.

 

Just as a refresher, the last two columns in the chart below represent the difference between home and away goals against; so the Penguins have allowed 0.53 more goals per game at home than they have allowed on the road. This has been updated after Thursday night’s games.

 

Week five started with a half-and-half split between teams that were more efficient defensively at home versus on the road; Week 10 saw that number grow to only 10 teams that were more efficient on the road. The evidence this time around shows that only eight teams allow more goals at home than they do on the road.

 

Last month’s champions, the Kings, have closed the gap between goals against on the road versus at home, but that is mainly because their home ice dominance has gone out the window this past month.

 

The two standouts this month are the Tampa Bay Lightning and St.Louis Blues, who are allowing 1.54 and 1.42 more goals against respectfully on the road than they are at home. While the Lightning have somehow played eight more games on the road so far, the Blues have only played three more yet have allowed 21 more goals. Either way, no other teams even come close to that difference (Atlanta’s difference is only 0.75).

 

Here are two freakishly low numbers to take advantage of now before they even out. The Preds are only allowing 2.00 goals against in 19 home games, which is 0.54 than their average in 24 games on the road. Key point there is that they currently have to make up five home games. That number will shrink to four after Saturday when they host Chicago, but then will grow to a stunning 10 game difference after their six game road trip next week. Next week might be the time to trade for Pekka Rinne.

 

On the other side, Pittsburgh is allowing 2.05 goals against in 21 road games, but have allowed 62 goals in 24 games (2.58) at the brand new Consol Energy Center.

 


HOME

ROAD




Games GA

Games GA



Phi 21 56 2.67
22 57 2.59
0.08 Home
Pit 24 62 2.58
21 43 2.05
0.53 Home
NJ 22 66 3.00
20 66 3.30
0.3 Road
NYR 22 52 2.36
23 56 2.43
0.07 Road
NYI 19 58 3.05
23 78 3.39
0.34 Road











Bos 21 42 2.00
22 51 2.32
0.32 Road
Buf 22 65 2.95
21 61 2.90
0.05 Home
Mon 23 54 2.35
21 51 2.43
0.08 Road
Ott 23 63 2.74
21 71 3.38
0.64 Road
Tor 22 62 2.82
21 66 3.14
0.32 Road











Atl 22 58 2.64
23 78 3.39
0.75 Road
Car 19 53 2.79
24 74 3.08
0.29 Road
Fla 20 53 2.65
22 57 2.59
0.06 Home
TB 18 42 2.33
26 93 3.58
1.54 Road
Wash 24 56 2.33
20 57 2.85
0.52 Road











Chi 26 67 2.58
19 56 2.95
0.37 Road
CBJ 22 62 2.82
21 71 3.38
0.56 Road
Det 22 66 3.00
21 56 2.67
0.33 Home
Nas 19 38 2.00
24 61 2.54
0.54 Road
StL 23 49 2.13
20 71 3.55
1.42 Road











Cal 20 60 3.00
23 65 2.83
0.17 Home
Col 23 74 3.22
21 68 3.24
0.02 Road
Edm 21 63 3.00
21 74 3.52
0.52 Road
Min 22 62 2.82
21 57 2.71
0.11 Home
Van 21 46 2.19
22 54 2.45
0.36 Road











Ana 24 58 2.42
22 67 3.05
0.63 Road
Dal 23 58 2.52
21 57 2.71
0.19 Road
LAK 23 54 2.35
20 57 2.85
0.5 Road
Pho 19 50 2.63
25 71 2.84
0.21 Road
SJ 23 65 2.83
22 61 2.77
0.06 Home

 

A tough decision can be made easier with these charts showing you the best five and worst five schedules for upcoming seven-day periods. Some of you used them last year but for the benefit of new readers here is a refresher. The number next to the team indicates the 'multiplier' to use on a player's point-per-game pace to give you an idea how many points to expect for that week.

 

This week’s Wednesday to Tuesday schedule features a pair of rare five game weeks for the Rangers and Leafs, which begins with the two teams facing off on Wednesday night. Both teams have a heavy dosage of Southeastern teams coming up in that week, so be sure to check out the chart above for how those teams differ at home versus on the road. The Rangers play in Washington during that week, where the Caps have been allowing 2.33 goals per game in 24 games, while the Caps will play on the road in Toronto later in the week, where they have averaged 2.85 goals in only 20 games.

 

As I mentioned above, the Lightning have played eight more games on the road (13-10-3) than they have at home (13-3-2). This is as of January 14. After next Friday, January 21, that difference will be up to nine games. By February 26, they will have played two more HOME games than road games. You read that right. So between January 23 and February 25, the Tampa Bay Lightning will be on a 12 game home stand.

 

Friday January 14 to Thursday January 20, 2010
Best Bets
Anaheim 4.49 - @PHX, EDM, @OTT, @TOR
New Jersey 4.32 - @TB, @FLA, @NYI, PIT
Columbus 4.27 - DET, @DET, @TB, @FLA
Calgary 4.23 - @OTT, @TOR, @MON, MIN
Minnesota 4.23 - COL, VAN, @EDM, @CGY
Steer Clear
Chicago 1.80 - @NAS, NAS
Colorado 2.76 - @MIN, VAN, BAS
Toronto 2.88 - CGY, @NYR, ANA
Montreal 2.89 - NYR, CGY, @BUF
St. Louis - 2.89 - @SJ, LA, DET
Saturday January 15 to Friday January 21, 2010
Best Bets
Anaheim 4.49 - @PHX, EDM, @OTT, @TOR
Tampa Bay 4.25 - @CAR, CBJ, @ATL, @FLA
Los Angeles 4.21 - EDM, @DAL, @STL, PHX


Nashville 4.21 - NAS, @CHI, @PHX, @COL
Dallas 4.17 - ATL, LA, @EDM, @CAL

Steer Clear
Colorado 1.71 - VAN, NAS
Chicago 1.80 - @NAS, NAS
Toronto 2.88 - CGY, @NYR, ANA
St. Louis 2.89 - @SJ, LA, DET
Philadelphia 2.90 - @NYR, WAS, OTT
Sunday January 16 to Saturday January 22, 2010
Best Bets
Anaheim 4.44 - EDM, @OTT, @TOR, @MON
Washington 4.31 - OTT, @PHI, @NYI, @TOR
Minnesota 4.24 - VAN, @EDM, @CGY, @SJ
Vancounver 4.11 - @MIN, @COL, SJ, CGY
Boston 4.11 - CAR, @CAR, BUF, @COL
Steer Clear
Chicago 1.91- NAS, @DET
Colorado 2.47 - VAN, NAS, BOS
Buffalo 2.82 - MON, @BOS, NYI
Toronto 2.88 - @NYR, ANA, WAS
St. Louis 2.89 - LA, DET, CBJ
Monday January 17 to Sunday January 23, 2010
Best Bets
Atlanta 4.22 - @FLA, TB, NYR, @TB


Florida 4.21 - ATL, CBJ, TB, @NJ
Tampa Bay 4.11 - CBJ, @ATL, @FLA, ATL
Boston 4.11 - CAR, @CAR, BUF, @COL
Los Angeles 4.10 - @DAL, @STL, PHX, @PHX
Steer Clear
Chicago 1.91- NAS, @DET
Colorado 2.47 - VAN, NAS, BOS
Edmonton 2.76 - MIN, DAL, NAS
Ottawa 2.80 - ANA, @PHI, MON
Toronto 2.88 - @NYR, ANA, WAS
Tuesday January 18 to Monday January 24, 2010
Best Bets
Nashville 4.54 - @PHX, @COL, @EDM, @CGY
NY Rangers 4.24 - TOR, @CAR, @ATL, @WAS
Washington 4.23 - @PHI, @NYI, @TOR, NYR
Boston 4.14 - @CAR, BUF, @COL, @LA
Tampa Bay 4.11 - CBJ, @ATL, @FLA, ATL
Steer Clear
San Jose 1.90 - @VAN, MIN
Chicago 1.91 - @DET, PHI
Phoenix 2.74 - NAS, @LA, LA
Edmonton 2.76 - MIN, DAL, NAS
New Jersey 2.80 - PIT, @PHI, FLA
Wednesday January 19 to Tuesday January 25, 2010
Best Bets
NY Rangers 5.23 - TOR, @CAR, @ATL, @WAS, FLA
Toronto 5.11 - @NYR, ANA, WAS, @CAR, @TB

Florida 4.21 - ATL, CBJ, TB, @NJ
Tampa Bay 4.19 - @ATL, @FLA, ATL, TOR
Buffalo 4.18 - @BOS, NYI, @NYI, @OTT
Steer Clear
San Jose 1.90 - @VAN, MIN
Detroit 2.00 - @STL, CHI
Colorado 2.57 - NAS, BOS, STL
Los Angeles 2.76 - PHX, @PHX, BOS
New Jersey 2.80 - PIT, @PHI, FLA
Thursday January 20 to Wednesday January 26, 2010
Best Bets
NY Islanders 4.83 - WAS, @BUF, BUF, @PIT, CAR
Dallas 4.43 - @EDM, @CGY, @VAN, EDM
Nashville 4.43 - @COL, @EDM, @CGY, @VAN
Washington 4.33 - @NYI, @TOR, NYR, @ATL

St. Louis 4.20 - DET, CBJ, @COL, @CGY
Steer Clear
Columbus 2.00 - @STL, ANA
Minnesota 2.10 - @SJ, @CHI
Ottawa 2.80 - @PHI, MON, BUF
Chicago 2.86 - @DET, PHI, MIN
San Jose 2.88 - @VAN, MIN, @LA
Friday January 21 to Thursday January 27, 2010
Best Bets
Florida 4.04 - TB, @NJ, @NYR, @BOS
NY Islanders 3.90 - @BUF, BUF, @PIT, CAR
Calgary 3.70 - DAL, @VAN, NAS, STL
Buffalo 3.34 - NYI, @NYI, @OTT
Nashville 3.28 - @EDM, @CGY, @VAN
Steer Clear
Ottawa 1.86 - MON, BUF
San Jose 1.94 - MIN, @LA
Detroit 2.00 - CHI, NJ
Columbus 2.00 - @STL, ANA
Pittsburgh 2.03 - CAR, NYI
Saturday January 22 to Friday January 28, 2010
Best Bets
Nashville 3.28 - @EDM, @CGY, @VAN
St. Louis 3.25 - CBJ, @COL, @CGY
Carolina 3.22 - @PIT, TOR, @NYI
Phoenix 3.21 - LA, EDM, @COL
Toronto 3.17 - WAS, @CAR, @TB
Steer Clear
Ottawa 0.95 - BUF
Montreal 1.90 - ANA, @PHI
San Jose 1.94 - MIN, @LA
Detroit 2.00 - CHI, NJ
Columbus 2.00 - @STL, ANA
Sunday January 23 to Saturday January 29, 2010
Best Bets
Nashville 3.28 - @EDM, @CGY, @VAN
Florida 2.98 - @NJ, @NYR, @BOS
Edmonton 2.96 - NAS, @PHX, @DAL
NY Islanders 2.85 - @BUF, PIT, @CAR
Phoenix 2.31 - EDM, @COL
Steer Clear
Montreal 0.95 - @PHI
Columbus 0.95 - ANA
Ottawa 0.95 - BUF
San Jose 0.99 - @LA
Detroit 1.05 - NJ

 

 


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Pengwin7 said:

Pengwin7
Correction Correction, in 2009-2010:
Tampa Bay gave up: 107 goals at HOME. 146 goals on ROAD. 39/41 = +0.95 on ROAD.
St.Louis gave up: 113 goals at HOME. 105 goals on ROAD. 8/41 = +0.20 at HOME.

The numbers used in previous post were for 2008-2009 season.
January 14, 2011
Votes: +0

Pengwin7 said:

Pengwin7
Good Summary of Numbers Lots of numbers here, but my own number-crunching over the year indicates that teams (on average) will give up 0.25-0.50 more goals on the road than at home. There is very little trend among any one team. The difference won't consistenly hold. The variance for any given team during any given season is more just anomaly/circumstance than a "pattern that will continue".

For example, in 2009-2010:
Tampa Bay gave up: 132 goals at HOME. 137 goals on ROAD. Difference =5/41= +0.12ROAD.
St.Louis gave up: 105 goals at HOME. 117 goals on ROAD. Difference =12/41= +0.29ROAD.

If you had to bet your bank account... would you really predict that, going forward, the PENS will give up more goals/game at CONSOL than on the road???

I'd bet they will give up more goals/game on the road.

Good collection of numbers though.
January 14, 2011
Votes: +0
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