|It’s all in the Numbers||Tweet|
|Written by Ryan Ma|
|Tuesday, 11 January 2011 11:43|
Last week, Brett Lemon wrote an article regarding Bloom’s simple hierarchical system of categorizing cognitive learning and how it related to the process we all need to go through in order to experience success in fantasy hockey. By surfing TSN.ca, the Dobber website, Yahoo! player blurbs or Rotoworld, you’re being exposed to the “remembering” level. By consistently following DobberHockey and reading the mid-season guide you’re introduced to the “understanding” level. (Still love the “Ma’s Laws” by the way)
By making changes to your fantasy squad based on the above information you’re “applying”. As Lemon previously touched on in his article, “analyzing” and “evaluating” is the toughest part of the gig. This week I’m going to make your life a whole lot easier by introducing tools to help you better analyze and evaluate your team.
First, let's clear up some general misconceptions about projections:
1) First of all we need to place a realistic value on overall point production.
2) Ice-time plays a huge factor in point production.
3) Team depth is vitally important; a player that’s bouncing around between the second and third line isn’t going to be a candidate for 70 points, or even 60 according to the numbers below.
4) Salary plays a large role in ice-time distribution, and generally speaking if a team is forking out six million or higher in salary for a player, they are going to receive optimal ice-time. In the salary cap era of the NHL, teams will be very hard-pressed to stick a player making bucket-loads of cash on a checking line (unless maybe you’re the Leafs).
5) The Western Conference teams are the slightly more offensive of the two conferences.
6) Beware of lofty expectations from rookies.
7) Be wary of the second-half of the “magical fourth year”
() current point pace.
Second half numbers during the “magical fourth year” of recent fourth year breakouts: Mike Richards 1.03, Ryan Getzlaf 1.06, Pavel Datsyuk 1.17, Zach Parise 1.11, Ilya Kovalchuk 1.08, Jeff Carter 0.92, Mike Cammalleri 1.19, Anze Kopitar 1.02, and Paul Stastny 1.02.
Now, onto the real mathematical stuff! Keep in mind these are general average numbers, there may be certain exceptions to each scenario.
* Last season the top 10 numbers were the stats from all of the top 10 skaters in each category. This season I broke it down into two sections (point-per-game and top 10). I basically used the five players that were closest to the top 10 to determine their values, so if there are large discrepancies between the top 10 of this year and last year, that’s probably why.
* includes Pavel Datsyuk and Ryan Getzlaf, so numbers maybe a bit lower than expected.
*small sample size only Martin St. Louis and Corey Perry
The RW cohort is a very interesting one, as the numbers don’t really fall into line. The “top 10” cohort had guys like Milan Hejduk, Justin Williams, Rick Nash, Dustin Brown and Daniel Briere who are all kind of second line RWers on “good” high scoring teams. The “60-point” cohort had guys like Phil Kessel, Shane Doan and Dustin Penner who were top-line guys but on less offensive teams. As you can see the 19:50 ice-time average is very high compared to the cohort group that averaged just 18:14 at the same time last season. Expect the two groups to actually switch places by season’s end.
I didn’t know how to tier the goalies without getting 50 billion complaints about how I did it, so I guess I’ll just state some quick points.
* small sample size.
So you’re probably sitting there wondering, there’s a whole bunch of numbers, what does it all mean? Here are three examples of how I would use the numbers to determine the second-half.
For the first example I’m going to examine someone who I think is overachieving. Loui Eriksson has 46 points in 43 contests, while averaging 20:42 overall and 3:21 on the PP for the Stars. He also has 97 SOG and is currently ranked eighth in overall scoring in the NHL. Eriksson has spent 83.16 percent of his overall shifts alongside Brad Richards (another point-per-game player), which does show that he’s an integral part of the Stars offense. His ice-time seems to fall in line with his peers, but it’s the SOG that’s nearly 20 off the pace. Is he a certified top 10 LWer? His numbers certainly prove so, but is he good enough for point-per-game? I don’t think so, so look for a dip in numbers during the second-half to align itself.
Let’s try a second example to make sure that we’re all on the same page. Alex Kovalev is averaging 16:06 per contest amongst and has recorded just 18 points on the season. His power-play ice-time isn’t all too flashy at just 2:09 per game and he’s also picked up 98 SOG. The numbers project him to be more of a 45-point scorer by season’s end, which makes him borderline ww material. If you are a Kovalev-owner and is expecting a turnaround, it might be a smart play to move on and look for other alternatives.
For a third example we can take a backwards approach. Let’s take a look at Sergei Kostitsyn’s stats, so far he’s played in 37 contests, while averaging 13:25 per contest and has tallied 23 points. If you break it down a bit further, in the last month he has boosted that average to 17:36 and 2:25 on the PP in 14 contests, so really it was the start-of-year stats that are dragging his overall totals down. If you use his current numbers, he’s more of a 55-60 point player than a 46-point pace that’s he’s currently on. So expecting somewhere around 30-35 points in the final 41 contest is fairly reasonable if he maintains this recent trend. At just 13 percent Yahoo!-owned, he’s a bargain bin pickup to help provide an offensive boost to your fantasy squad.
So hopefully you can use the guidelines and numbers above to help you gain a better grasp of what to expect for player X moving forward. As the last tier of Bloom’s simple hierarchical system of categorizing cognitive learning, you need to go out and “create”. Now use this information and create changes to win a fantasy championship. Of course if you are desperately seeking different opinions, hop onto the DobberHockey Forums where there are plenty of fantasy fanatics who are ready and willing to give you their opinions. Questions or comments? Like always I’ll be ready and willing to discuss them with you in the comments section below.
gregory churchill said:
mike hess said:
Tony Bendiktsen said:
Tony Bendiktsen said:
|Last Updated on Thursday, 13 January 2011 12:23|