Lucic

 

In my article for Week 5 of the NHL season, I looked at the defensive tendencies at home vs. on the road for the 30 NHL clubs. What kind of analysis would that be if I didn’t do a follow up look now that we are in Week 10?

 

The last two columns in the chart below represent the difference between home and away goals against; so Pittsburgh has 0.42 more goals allowed per game at home than they have allowed on the road. This has been updated as of Thursday night’s games.

 

In the Week 5 analysis, teams were split half and half as to whether they more efficient defensively at home or on the road. This time around, 20 of the League’s teams allow more goals on the road than they do at home.

 

The most intriguing difference for me is the Los Angeles Kings, who have now played 13 games both at home and on the road, but have allowed 1.53 more goals away from the Staples Center. They are 11-3 at home, but only 5-8 on the road.

 

 

HOME

ROAD

 

 

 

 

 

Games

GA

Games

GA

 

 

 

 

Phi

17

47

2.76

 

13

25

1.92

 

0.84

Home

Pit

16

40

2.50

 

14

29

2.07

 

0.42

Home

NJ

12

37

3.08

 

15

43

2.87

 

0.21

Home

NYR

15

41

2.73

 

15

39

2.60

 

0.13

Home

NYI

11

36

3.27

 

15

50

3.33

 

0.06

Road

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bos

14

26

1.86

 

13

25

1.92

 

0.06

Road

Buf

15

39

2.60

 

14

40

2.86

 

0.26

Road

Mon

17

34

2.00

 

11

20

1.82

 

0.18

Home

Ott

16

42

2.63

 

14

47

3.36

 

0.73

Road

Tor

16

41

2.56

 

12

42

3.50

 

0.94

Road

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Atl

15

33

2.20

 

13

45

3.46

 

1.26

Road

Car

12

30

2.50

 

14

51

3.64

 

1.14

Road

Fla

11

29

2.64

 

16

40

2.50

 

0.14

Home

TB

11

33

3.00

 

17

64

3.76

 

0.76

Road

Wash

17

45

2.65

 

13

35

2.69

 

0.04

Road

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chi

16

47

2.94

 

14

39

2.79

 

0.15

Home

CBJ

15

41

2.73

 

12

33

2.75

 

0.02

Road

Det

15

42

2.80

 

11

27

2.45

 

0.35

Home

Nas

11

22

2.00

 

16

46

2.88

 

0.88

Road

StL

12

20

1.67

 

15

51

3.40

 

1.73

Road

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cal

13

40

3.08

 

16

46

2.88

 

0.2

Home

Col

12

35

2.92

 

15

51

3.40

 

0.48

Road

Edm

12

36

3.00

 

15

56

3.73

 

0.73

Road

Min

15

38

2.53

 

12

38

3.17

 

0.64

Road

Van

13

31

2.38

 

13

35

2.69

 

0.31

Road

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ana

16

43

2.69

 

15

49

3.27

 

1.54

Road

Dal

14

33

2.36

 

13

39

3.00

 

0.64

Road

LAK

13

21

1.62

 

13

41

3.15

 

1.53

Road

Pho

13

36

2.77

 

14

36

2.57

 

0.2

Home

SJ

13

38

2.92

 

15

45

3.00

 

0.08

Road

 

The big thing to point out in the weekly schedules is the Wednesday to Tuesday schedule, where there not one, not two, but THREE five game weeks; the Ducks, Thrashers and Blues. Anaheim has the highest score indicator, but considering all five games are on the road, I have to think that the Thrashers might be the best pick of the five game teams. They play @TB, Carolina, NJ, @Tor and finish off with the Blues.

 

Staying with Atlanta, they are going to be the busiest team over the next few weeks, playing nine games over the next 14 days and 12 games over the next 21 days. The Wings and Stars are right behind the  Thrashers over those time frames, playing eight and 11 games respectively.

 

Friday December 10 to Thursday December 16, 2010
Best Bets
Atlanta 5.43 - five games COL, @NYI, @OTT, @TB, CAR
Carolina 4.34 - four games @DAL, @STL, @FLA, @ATL
Columbus 4.06 - four games NYR, @CAL, @VAN, @EDM
Anaheim 4.05 - four games CAL, MIN, @WAS, @NYI
Colorado 4.00 - four games @ATL, @WAS, CHI, @CHI
Steer Clear
Buffalo 1.78 - two games PIT, BOS
Florida 2.00 - two @NAS, CAR
New Jersey 2.78 - three games @OTT, DET, PHO
Boston 2.80 - three games PHI, @BUF, @MON
Philadelphia 2.81 - three games @BOS, PHI, @MON
Saturday December 11 to Friday December 17, 2010
Best Bets
Atlanta 4.48 - four games @NYI, @OTT, @TB, CAR
Columbus 4.06 - four games NYR, @CAL, @VAN, @EDM
San Jose 3.98 - four games CHI, DAL, @NAS, @DAL
Nashville 3.97 - four games FLA, NYI, SJ, @NJ
Chicago 3.93 - four games @SJ, @COL, COL, DET
Steer Clear
Tampa Bay 1.99 - two games @VAN, ATL
Calgary 2.04 - two games CBJ, TOR
New Jersey 2.56 - three games DET, PHO, NAS
Boston 2.80 - three games PHI, @BUF, @MON
Philadelphia 2.81 - three games @BOS, PHI, @MON
Sunday December 12 to Saturday December 18, 2010
Best Bets
Anaheim 4.34 - four games MIN, @WAS, @NYI, @CAR
Columbus 4.21 - four games @CAL, @VAN, @EDM, DAL
Atlanta 4.14 - four games @OTT, @TB, CAR, NJ
San Jose 4.07 - four games DAL, @NAS, @DAL, @STL
Nashville 3.87 - four games NYI, SJ, @NJ, LA
Steer Clear
Montreal 1.72 - two games PHI, BOS
Florida 1.89 - two games CAR, BUF
Tampa Bay 1.89 - two games ATL, BUF
Pittsburgh 1.90 - two games @PHI, NYR
Detroit 2.69 - three games LA, STL, @CHI
Monday December 13 to Sunday December 19, 2010
Best Bets
Columbus 4.21 - four games @CAL, @VAN, @EDM, DAL





Atlanta 4.14 - four games @OTT, @TB, CAR, NJ





Ottawa 4.10 - four games ATL, @MIN, @COL, WAS
San Jose 4.07 - four games DAL, @NAS, @DAL, @STL
Dallas 4.02 - four games @SJ, SJ, CBJ, DET
Steer Clear
Florida 1.89 - two games CAR, BUF
Tampa Bay 1.89 - two games ATL, BUF
Pittsburgh 1.90 - two games @PHI, NYR
Minnesota 1.92 - two games OTT, @CAL
Edmonton 2.04 - two games TOR, CBJ
Tuesday December 14 to Monday December 20, 2010
Best Bets
Carolina 4.45 - four games @FLA, @ATL, ANA, @TB





Anaheim 4.30 - four games @WAS, @NYI, @CAR, @BOS





Atlanta 4.28 - four games @TB, CAR, NJ, @TOR
Toronto 4.22 - four games @EDM, @CAL, @VAN, ATL
Phoenix 4.19 - four games @NJ, @NYR, @NYI, @PIT
Steer Clear
NYI 1.85- two games ANA, PHX
Edmonton 2.04 - two games TOR, CBJ
Chicago 2.72 - three games COL, DET, LA
Pittsburgh 2.73 - three games @PHI, NYR, PHX
Colorado 2.77 - three games @CHI, OTT, MON
Wednesday December 15 to Tuesday December 21, 2010
Best Bets
Anaheim 5.23 - five games @WAS, @NYI, @CAR, @BOS, @BUF
Atlanta 5.13 - five games @TB, CAR, NJ, @TOR, STL





St. Louis 4.83 - five games @DET, LA, SJ, VAN, @ATL
Carolina 4.45 - four games @FLA, @ATL, ANA, @TB
San Jose 4.19 - four games @NAS, @DAL, @STL, EDM
Steer Clear
Pittsburgh 1.71 - two games NYR, PHX
NYI 1.85- two games ANA, PHX
Edmonton 2.00 - two games CBJ, @SJ
Chicago 2.72 - three games COL, DET, LA
Minnesota 2.77 - three games OTT, @CAL, CAL
Thursday December 16 to Wednesday December 22, 2010
Best Bets
Anaheim 4.18 - four games @NYI, @CAR, @BOS, @BUF
Calgary 4.14 - four games TOR, MIN, @MIN, @CBJ
Atlanta 3.96 - four games CAR, NJ, @TOR, STL
Los Angeles 3.88 - four games @STL, @NAS, @CHI, COL
Washington 3.95 - four games FLA, COL, @NYR, ANA
Steer Clear
Pittsburgh 1.81 - two games PHX, FLA
NYR 1.84 - two games PHX, @PHI
Philadelphia 1.88 - two games NYR, FLA
Edmonton 2.00 - two games CBJ, @SJ
Chicago 2.62 - three games DET, LA, NAS
Friday December 17 to Thursday December 23, 2010
Best Bets
Buffalo 4.29 - four games @FLA, @TB, ANA, FLA
Calgary 4.20 - four games MIN, @MIN, @CBJ, @DAL
New Jersey 4.14 - four games NAS, @ATL, @WAS, NYI
Los Angeles 4.10 - four games @NAS, @COL, @CHI, EDM
Tampa Bay 4.06 - four games BUF, CAR, @NYI, @NYR
Steer Clear
Philadelphia 1.88 - two games NYR, FLA
Toronto 1.99 - two games @VAN, ATL
Edmonton 2.04 - two games @SJ, @LA
NYR 2.07 - two games @PHI, TB
Chicago 2.62 - three games DET, LA, NAS
Saturday December 18 to Friday December 24, 2010
Best Bets
Calgary 4.20 - four games MIN, @MIN, @CBJ, @DAL
Los Angeles 4.10 - four games @NAS, @COL, @CHI, EDM
Tampa Bay 4.06 - four games BUF, CAR, @NYI, @NYR
Vancouver 4.06 - four games TOR, @STL, @DET, @CBJ
St. Louis 3.84 - four games SJ, VAN, @ATL, DET
Steer Clear
Chicago 1.75 - two games LA, NAS
Philadelphia 1.88 - two games NYR, FLA
Ottawa 1.90 - two games WAS, @NAS
Toronto 1.99 - two games @VAN, ATL
Edmonton 2.04 - two games @SJ, @LA
Sunday December 19 to Saturday December 25, 2010
Best Bets
Montreal 3.35 - three games @COL, @DAL, @CAR
Calgary 3.25 - three games @MIN, @CBJ, @DAL
Tampa Bay 3.22 - three games CAR, @NYI, @NYR
Los Angeles 3.15 - three games @CHI, @COL, EDM
Florida 3.02 - three games @PHI, @PIT, @BUF
Steer Clear
Philadelphia 1.00 - one games FLA
Toronto 1.04 - one game ATL
NY Rangers 1.06 - one game TB
Columbus 1.71 - two games CAL, VAN
Chicago 1.75 - two games LA, NAS

 

 

 


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Comments (3)add comment

Dave Poleck said:

hockeyrobot
... Not stupid at all. Showing the Best Bet and Steer Clear teams is very helpful for poolies in leagues where you set lineups on a weekly basis instead of on a daily basis. For example, in the Friday-Thursday weekly league that I am in, I decided to bench Michael Frolik for this week because they only have two games over that span.
December 11, 2010
Votes: +0

Ron Burgundy said:

Ron Burgundy
Feeding time Who is the guy getting fed by Lucic in the picture? And who looks like he might be about to cry?
December 10, 2010
Votes: +0

Emanuel Sequeira said:

hockeymasters
point of information Hi Dave,

This might be a stupid question but I don't fully understand the point of showing which games are a best bet and stay clear from? I can see that the stats might be effective in helping a person decide which goalie you may want to dress. What else is the benefit of it? Thanks.
Emanuel
December 10, 2010
Votes: +0
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