|Fantasy Indicators of Success: Wingmen||Tweet|
|Written by Russ Miller|
|Thursday, 18 November 2010 02:09|
Following my Western counterpart, this week we will cover Eastern Conference wingers. Two key statistics that I use to determine the potential value of a forward are Power Play Time On Ice and Time On Ice. Typically in order to produce fantasy-worthy numbers, players need to be receiving top six ice time and be at least receiving reasonable amount of time with the man advantage.
NOTE: The ramblings below are geared towards one year leagues than keepers. Statistics do not include last night's games.
Bryan Little has the third most face-off wins on Atlanta and is listed as RW in Yahoo. He had a career high of 51 points only two years ago and receives enough ice time to hit that mark again. Andrew Ladd sits third on the team in average power play minutes and is on a point-per-game pace. His career high is 49 points. I'd Sell high here. Super sophomore Evander Kane is sixth on the team in power play time on ice. He is one to watch as he scored 96 points in 61 games in his final junior season and jumped right into the NHL last year. He also had four points in seven games while representing Canada at the World Championship. While it may be a nice story, I'm not buying that Anthony Stewart is going to follow in his brother's footsteps, at least not this season. Stewart was a point-per-game player in junior, but he has struggled since turning pro. Last year he had 31 points in the AHL. A definite Sell for me here. Bergfors is a borderline Sell. He's scoring at a 68 point pace and has 11 points in his last 11 games. After the trade from New Jersey last season, he has scored at a 52 point pace.
I don't see Milan Lucic finishing with 70 points this year. His career high is 42 points and with his style of play, he does tend to get injured a little too often for my liking. With the imminent return of Marc Savard, the Bruins have to shed some salary. That should be good news for Blake Wheeler. He'll either have the opportunity for more ice time with the Bruins or will himself be dealt. Recchi and Ryder are easy choices to Sell high. Recchi is older than your father and how Ryder is on pace for 27 goals and 59 points while receiving less than 14 minutes of ice time is beyond me. That said, he's got the talent; over his first three years in the NHL, he averaged 28 goals and 59 points and only two seasons ago, his first with Boston, he had 27 goals and 53 points. Don't forget that Marco Sturm may return by mid-December, he has the talent to score at a 20 goal pace.
Both Tyler Ennis and Nate Gerbe are C/LW in Yahoo, but obviously hold more value as wingers. Ennis was named AHL Rookie of the Year after scoring 65 points in 69 games last season. He also recorded nine points in 10 NHL games at the end of last season. He's on pace for 46 points and gets second unit power play minutes. Pominville is on the top power play unit, yet has only two points. He has averaged 69 points over each of the last four seasons, a perfect Buy Low here. Stafford is getting the sixth most power play ice time on the team. He is on pace for 44 points, but is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Jochen Hecht is tough to get a read on. He lines up with Tim Connolly for half his even strength shifts, yet is on pace for only 16 points. He had 42 points last season, but a meagre 27 points the year before that. I'd give the 33-year-old a wide berth. I doubt he has any trade value.
Tom Kostopoulos was traded yesterday to Calgary. Jeff Skinner has been a revelation this season. He hit for 90 points in 64 junior games last year, but followed that up with an incredible 33 points in 20 playoff games for Kitchener. He looks like he's for real. Tuomo Ruutu has the third most face-off wins on Carolina, but is listed as LW in Yahoo. Jussi Jokinen is fourth in face-off wins on the team. He had 65 points last season and is on pace for 52 points this year, so he could fall into the Buy Low category if you are a believer. Chad LaRose has a career high of 31 points, but seems grafted to Eric Staal's hip. I thought he was just a hard skating mucker, but a little background check made me change my Sell recommendation to a Hold. In his last year of junior hockey, LaRose scored 117 points in 67 games! Samsonov is on pace for 48 points. He had 29 points last year and 48 the season before that. He's just not worth the aggravation.
Michael Frolik has 10 points in his last 10 games. After seasons of 45 and 43 points, he is on pace for 57 points. Even on this team, he should be good for at least 55 points. Rusty Olesz is in a dog fight for top six ice time. So far he's taken advantage of his opportunities, but while the 25-year-old is on pace for 48 points, his career high is only 30 points. Cory Stillman gets second unit power play minutes, but he's 36-years-old and is not getting top six minutes. He has no trade value, so you might as well hold or outright drop him for the flavour of the week.
Do you trust Andrei Kostitsyn to continue to produce at a 62 point rate? Me neither. His career high is 53 points, so yes he could hit 60, but I don't trust him. Former two time 80 point scorer, Mike Cammalleri is on pace for 61 points. Go get him. Last season, his first as a Hab, Brian Gionta scored at a 62 point pace. He's currently on pace for a 49 point season. I nearly put him as a Buy Low. Benoit Pouliot scored at a 30 goal, 50 point pace after coming over from the Wild in a trade last season. He's on pace for over 20 goals and 40 points this season, but is receiving over four minutes of ice time per game less than last year. I rated Travis Moen as a Hold as he takes the odd shift with Gomez and Gionta and has 20 point, 100 penalty minute potential.
Patrik Elias is C/LW in Yahoo, but has only taken 32 face-offs to date this year. He is on pace for 50 points, but had 78 points two seasons ago. Things can only get better for the Devils this year, right? Right? Here's a huge Buy, but you will likely still have to convince his current owner or pay close to what his value was prior to the start of this season. Ilya Kovalchuk is on pace for 42 points. He has averaged 44 goals for every 82 games in his NHL career! He's only 27-years-old, I'll pay close to market value if I can convince his owner to let him go. David Clarkson is on pace for 232 penalty minutes, but only 18 points. Last season, he had 24 points in only 46 games. Look for his point totals to rise as his penalty minutes sink. Two of Alexander Vasyunov's three points have come in the last three games. He's had a point in three of four games where he received more than 12 minutes of ice time. Vasyunov has taken about 50 per cent of his shifts with Kovalchuk. Mattias Tedenby has spent the vast majority of his time on a line with Arnott and Elias. Both Vasyunov and Tedenby seem like short term fill-ins though. Brian Rolston is skating with Zubrus and Clarkson and receives second unit power play time, but at 37 years of age, he shouldn't be relied upon for consistent production.
P.A. Parenteau is on pace for 50 points, but only has two points in his last eight games. He has 450 AHL games to his credit and was a point-per-game player there. I have no confidence that he can maintain his grasp on the top power play unit, where he logs the third most power play minutes on the team. Trent Hunter has been a 35 point player over the last five seasons, but his ice time this year isn't encouraging. Still waiting to hear when Kyle Okposo will make his return from shoulder surgery (10 Oct.). The 22-year-old recorded 52 points last season.
Coach Tortorella loves Ryan Callahan, heck I love Ryan Callahan (I mean that in a non-romantic way of course). The guy plays the game the way it should be played. He's on pace for 75 points and his previous career high is only 40 points. I'd sell high even though I think he'll finish with a new career high. Alexander Frolov is on pace for 45 points. He's averaged 60 points over the last five seasons and is only 28-years-old. He'll see some time with Gaborik and that will only help Frolov. If you can get anything for Fedotenko, just do it (sorry Nike). He's on pace for 44 points and history tells us that he'll finish with 30-39 points. Ugh. Sean Avery is on pace for 40 points and 200 penalty minutes. Marian Gaborik has scored 40 goals and 80 points in two of his last three seasons.
Alex Kovalev is on pace for 40 points. Last season, he finished with 49 points. The two previous seasons, he reached 65 and 84 points. When you watch the 37-year-old play, you see that he is so obviously talented, you wonder why the points don't come. I hate recommending Milan Michalek as a Buy Low candidate, but the numbers say he is scoring at a 33 point pace. Last season, he scored at a 42 point pace and in his last three seasons with San Jose, he averaged 24 goals and 59 points a year. Many expected Nick Foligno to score 30-35 points, so his 22 point pace is disappointing. He'll struggle to hit 30 this year.
I almost had Leino as a Sell, but ever since last year's playoffs, he's turned the corner in the confidence department. He knows he can score at this level. The Flyers are a team deep in offensive talent and Leino is reaping the benefits. Danny Briere has the fourth most face-off wins (211) on the Flyers, but is listed as RW in Yahoo. He's on pace for 63 points, but does anyone remember that only four seasons ago he had 95 points? Scott Hartnell is on pace for 50 points and 267 penalty minutes! Just a suggestion, but maybe Zherdev could change his first name back to Nikolai. In his last two NHL seasons as Nikolai, he recorded 58 and 61 points. Nikolay is on pace for a pathetic 23 points. Andreas Nodl has played 65 per cent of his even strength shifts with Mike Richards. He would need to see increased ice time to hold any real value. James van Riemsdyk is having some trouble repeating his 35 point rookie season, but surely he can do better than his current 20 point pace.
Yes, Malkin is listed in Yahoo as a centre, but he's only taken 37 face-offs, so here's hoping he gets winger eligibility soon. Chris Kunitz gets the fourth most power play minutes and on this team that's gold. Matt Cooke is scoring at a rate (42 points) he hasn't seen since 2002-03. He's been a 30 point player since then. Tyler Kennedy is on pace for only 22 points, but recorded 25 points in 64 games last year and 35 points in 67 games two seasons ago. Mike Comrie is missing a golden opportunity here. He scored at a 40 point pace last season and is currently on pace for only 26 points.
Teddy Purcell has been seeing increased ice time of late. He has 121 points in 105 career AHL games, but only managed 43 points in 127 NHL games. I'm not a fan, hence the Sell recommendation, but he certainly has the skill to put up points. Sean Bergenheim is on pace for 33 points, but he doesn't get much power play ice time. Simon Gagne is very close to returning from his injury. The former two time 40 goal scorer had 40 points in 58 games last season, a 57 point pace. He'll get top six ice time and top power play minutes when he's back in the line-up.
Perhaps there is no bigger Sell high than Clarke MacArthur. It's not that he doesn't have talent, it's just that he's on pace for 76 points. Last year, he scored 35 points, that's too large a jump for MacArthur. He finished as a point-per-game AHL player and had 74 points in 58 games in his last year of junior hockey. Nikolai Kulemin scored 36 points last season and is on pace for 48 points this year. Colby Armstrong only had 29 points last year and 40 the season before that. He'll be given a decent amount of ice time on his return from injury. He's day-to-day.
Although listed as LW by Yahoo, Tomas Fleischmann has taken the second most face-offs on the Caps. He is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent following the season, so the motivation should be there. Brooks Laich also takes some draws, he sits fifth on the team in face-offs taken. Laich is very valuable as he is firmly entrenched in the top six on this talented roster. Mike Knuble has averaged 29 goals and 55 points over each of the last five seasons. He is on pace for 35 points. Fehr gets second unit power play minutes, but only averages 13 minutes of ice time per game. Simply a case of too much talent on the team pushing Fehr down the depth chart. A trade would do him wonders.
Thursday Trivia Time
There are currently four NHL players who were born in the Ukraine. Name them.
Russ Miller said:
Big Ev said:
chris hayward said:
dave k. said:
|Last Updated on Thursday, 18 November 2010 18:58|