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One of the first things I do during the first few weeks of fantasy hockey is stay away from the teams that play overseas. While a set back after returning to North American soil isn’t always guaranteed, why take the risk so early in the season?

 

The chart below shows the goals for of teams once they return from playing in Europe compared to how they fared during the rest of the season.

 

2007-08

Goals For

October

Rest of Season

LA

3.1

2.4

Anaheim

2

2.3

 

 

 

2008-09

Goals For

October

Rest of Season

Ottawa

2.8

2.6

Pittsburgh

2.3

3.3

NYR

2.9

2.5

Tampa Bay

2.4

2.6

 

 

 

2009-10

 

 

October

Rest of Season

St. Louis

1.5

2.8

Detroit

3.2

2.7

Chicago

3

3.3

Florida

2.8

2.5

 

These numbers are easily skewed because one 6-0 win in October can drastically change the ‘goals for’ for that month (LA won 8-6 in October 2007), but it does give you an idea of how the travel can effect teams early on.

 

Last year for the example, the Blues answered all of our dreams by coming out and smoking Detroit in their first two games in Sweden, then went on to score 15 goals in their next 10 games back in North America. Although this is a pretty small sample size, it looks to me like the good teams are able to recover from the travel, while the bad teams struggle to catch their feet after the slow start. Recent exceptions include the Wings last year, who went through season long injury problems and the Sens in 2009-10. Who could forget their second half slump?

 

Your teams this year are Boston, Carolina, Phoenix, Minnesota, Columbus and San Jose. Expect four of those teams to be able to pull themselves back to a normal ground as the season progresses. With a new coach in place, Columbus might be able to as well, but don’t count on any extraordinary revivals from Minnesota after they return; they’re my pick to finish dead last in the West.

 

The team that gets hit the worst from opening in Europe is the San Jose Sharks. While they might be the best offensive team headed overseas, they play their last game in Europe on October 9, but then only have two games over the next 10 days.

 

Moving on to the non Europe bound teams, LA only plays once during the Wednesday to Tuesday schedule. If last year’s round one battle was any indication against Vancouver, their one game should be great to watch, but keep your Kings on the bench.

 

If there is ever a team that you could feel good about playing players from on a two game week, it’s the Washington Capitals. They scored an unbelievable 45 more goals than any other team in the League last season. The difference between the first and second teams in goals for since the lockout were: 19, 1, 12, 11. Surely, the Caps will once again reign among the league’s scoring elite. However, if there was ever a week that you might want to consider sitting Ovie, Green or Backstrom, it would be Thursday Oct 14-Wednesday Oct 20 when they face Nashville and Boston.

 

Dave’s Best of the Best


Wednesday Oct 13 to Tuesday Oct 19
Vancouver- Ana, LA, Car, Minnesota

 

Three non playoff teams from last season against the league’s second highest scoring team gets me excited for anyone who has a Canuck that week. L.A. will be tough, especially since they’ll want to avenge their first round exit as mentioned earlier, but the Sedins and co. will want to make a statement against a team that they might be battling for the Conference title with all season.

 

Note


Hope everyone enjoyed my first crack at this. Feel free to PM me or shoot me an email ( This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it ) if you have any suggestions or analysis that you would like to see.

 

Thursday October 7 to Wednesday October 13, 2010
Best Bets
NJ 3.99 - four games DAL, @WAS, PIT, @BUF
Washington 3.98 - four games @ATL, NJ, OTT, NYI
Anaheim 3.83 - four games @DET, @NAS, @STL, VAN
Pittsburgh 3.87 - four games PHI, MON, @NJ, TOR
Chicago 3.72 - four games @COL, DET, @BUF, NAS
Steer Clear
Phoenix 1.72 - two games @BOS, BOS (Prague)
Boston 1.72 - two games PHO, @PHO (Prague)
Columbus 1.85 - two games @SJ, SJ (Stockholm)
Edmonton 1.85 - two games CAL, FLA
St. Louis 1.94 - two games PHI, ANA
Friday October 8 to Thursday October 14, 2010
Best Bets
Ottawa 4.14 - four games BUF, @TOR, @WAS, CAR
Detroit 4.06 - four games ANA, @CHI, COL, @DAL
NJ 3.99 - four games DAL, @WAS, PIT, @BUF
Washington 3.98 - four games @ATL, NJ, OTT, NYI
Anaheim 3.83 - four games @DET, @NAS, @STL, VAN
Steer Clear
Phoenix 1.72 - two games @BOS, BOS (Prague)
Boston 1.72 - two games PHO, @PHO (Prague)
Columbus 1.85 - two games @SJ, SJ (Stockholm)
Calgary 1.89 - two games LA, FLA
Colorado 1.99 - two games @PHI, @DET
Saturday October 9 to Friday October 15, 2010
Best Bets
NYI 4.04 - four games DAL, NYR, @WAS, @PIT
Vancouver 4.01 - four games LA, FLA, @Ana, @LA
Pittsburgh 3.94 - four games MON, @NJ, TOR, NYI
New Jersey 3.90 - four games @WAS, PIT, @BUF, COL
Anaheim 3.90 - four games @NAS, @STL, VAN, ATL
Steer Clear
Carolina 1.07 - one game @OTT
Minnesota 1.16 - one game EDM
San Jose 1.17 - one game @CBJ
Phoenix 1.72 - two games @BOS, BOS (Prague)
Columbus 1.73 - two games @SJ, SJ (Stockholm)
Sunday October 10 to Saturday October 16, 2010
Best Bets
Florida 4.29 - four games @EDM, @VAN, @CAL, TB
Pittsburgh 4.04 - four games @NJ, TOR, NYI, @PHI
Colorado 4.04 - four games @PHI, @DET, @NJ, @NYI
NYI 3.95 - four games NYR, @WAS, @PIT, COL
Chicago 3.80 - four games @BUF, NAS, @CBJ, BUF
Steer Clear
San Jose 1.04 - one game ATL
Carolina 1.07 - one game @CAR
Phoenix 1.70 - two games BOS, DET
Boston 1.77 - two games @PHO, @NJ
Dallas 1.79 - two games DET, STL
Monday October 11 to Sunday October 17, 2010
Best Bets
Vancouver 4.16 - four games FLA, @ANA, @LA, CAR
Pittsburgh 4.04 - four games @NJ, TOR, NYI, @PHI
Colorado 4.04 - four games @PHI, @DET, @NJ, @NYI
NYI 3.95 - four games NYR, @WAS, @PIT, COL
Chicago 3.80 - four games @BUF, NAS, @CBJ, BUF
Steer Clear
Boston 0.86 - one game @NJ
San Jose 1.04 - one game ATL
Dallas 1.79 - two games DET, STL
LA 1.95 - two games ATL, VAN
Columbus 1.96 - two games CHI, @MIN
Tuesday October 12 to Monday October 18, 2010
Best Bets
NYI 4.27 - four games @WAS, @PIT, COL, @TOR
Tampa Bay 4.16 - four games @MON, @PHI, @FLA, DAL
Pittsburgh 4.15 - four games TOR, NYI, @PHI, OTT
Colorado 4.01 - four games @DET, @NJ, @NYI, @NYR
Chicago 3.78 - four games NAS, @CBJ, BUF, STL
Steer Clear
Boston 0.86 - one game @NJ
San Jose 1.04 - one game ATL
LA 1.95 - two games ATL, VAN
Columbus 1.96 - two games CHI, @MIN
Florida 2.01 - two games @CAL, TB
Wednesday October 13 to Tuesday October 19, 2010
Best Bets
Vancouver 4.27 - four games @ANA, @LA, CAR, @MIN
NYI 4.27 - four games @WAS, @PIT, COL, @TOR
Tampa Bay 4.16 - four games @MON, @PHI, @FLA, DAL
Pittsburgh 4.15 - four games TOR, NYI, @PHI, OTT
Chicago 3.78 - four games NAS, @CBJ, BUF, STL
Steer Clear
LA 0.91 - one game VAN
Boston - two games @NJ, @WAS
Columbus 1.96 - two games CHI, @MIN
Florida 2.01 - two games @CAL, TB
Phoenix 2.01 - two games DET, @ANA
Thursday October 14 to Wednesday October 20, 2010
Best Bets
Vancouver 4.08 - four games @LA, CAR, @MIN, @CHI
Carolina 4.03 - four games @OTT, @VAN, @SJ, @LA
Chicago 3.83 - four games @CBJ, BUF, STL, VAN
NYI 3.22 - three games @PIT, COL, @TOR
Tampa Bay 3.15 - three games @PHI, @FLA, DAL
Steer Clear
Washington 1.76 - two games @NAS, BOS
New Jersey 1.77 - two games COL, BOS
Montreal 1.90 - two games @BUF, MON
Boston 1.91 - two games @NJ, @WAS
LA 1.95 - two games VAN, CAR
Friday October 15 to Thursday October 21, 2010
Best Bets
NYI 4.39 - four games @PIT, COL, @TOR, @TB
Vancouver 4.08 - four games @LA, CAR, @MIN, @CHI
Anaheim 4.05 - four games ATL, PHO, @CBJ, @PHI
Pittsburgh 4.01 - four games NYI, @PHI, OTT, @NAS
Colorado 3.91 - four games @NJ, @NYI, @NYR, SJ
Steer Clear
Detroit 1.77 - two games @PHO, CAL
Edmonton 1.95 - two games @CAL, MIN
Philadelphia 1.99 - two games PIT, ANA
Ottawa 2.07 - two games @MON, @PIT
St. Louis 2.09 - two games @DAL, @CHI
Saturday October 16 to Friday October 22, 2010
Best Bets
Tampa Bay 4.37 - four games @FLA, DAL, NYI, @ATL
Calgary 4.24 - four games EDM, @NAS, @DET, @CBJ
Minnesota 4.24 - four games CBJ, VAN, @EDM, @VAN
Vancouver 4.10 - four games CAR, @MIN, @CHI, MIN
Chicago 3.66 - four games BUF, STL, VAN, @STL
Steer Clear
Montreal 1.75 - two games OTT, NJ
Detroit 1.77 - two games @PHO, CAL
New Jersey 1.82 - two games BOS, @MON
Edmonton 1.95 - two games @CAL, MIN
LA 1.95 - two games CAR, @PHO


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Comments (3)add comment

Marcus said:

Crazynuck
... Dave amazing stuff. I look forward to this all season long.
October 01, 2010
Votes: +0

horrorfan said:

horrorfan
Expanded week Thanks Dave, much appreciated and very helpful. One request if at all possible - are you able to create a table for Thursday, October 7th to Sunday, October 17th? That is likely the first week in most H2H leagues.
October 01, 2010
Votes: +2

Jason said:

RiverJack
... This is a VERY useful tool for me. I'm in a weekly keeper league with 8 very intense managers. Anything I can do to gain the upper-hand is much appreciated!

Thanks!
September 30, 2010
Votes: +1
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