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The subject of this Deep Analysis was drawn from our database of subscribers at www.hockeypoolgeek.com and this one is a doozy!  As you’ll see when you read the League Structure section, Chris’ league is complicated.  Not only is it a dynasty-style league with three (3!!) teams per GM, it also has a salary cap.  Now that’s daunting.

 

For Deep Analysis purposes, assessing a team in a very deep league with large 3 tiered rosters in a salary cap environment is not for the faint of heart.  But it’s doable if you simplify the objectives of the Deep Analysis to looking at present day competitiveness and future year competitiveness.  That is the approach we are taking with this Deep Analysis.

 

Team Name: Montreal Canadiens          

League Name: Slap Shot Hockey

GM: Canadiens

Evaluators: The Hockey Pool Geek Team

Date of Analysis: September 2010

League Structure:

Format: 14 teams, H2H league. No max GP, though GMs must have at least 3 goalie starts per week.

Rosters: 24-man roster: 3 C, 3 LW, 3 RW, 3F, 2 Utility, 4 D, 2 G, 4 Bench.

 

There is a 35-man farm team, and a 7 player junior team.

 

To add to all of that, there is a salary cap for the pro team of $79.4 million.

 

Scoring categories: G, A, P, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG - W, SV%, SO, GAA, SV

Number of keepers: Everyone.  Every. Single. Last. Player.

Keepers declared by: Before next year.

Draft: Draft for this year already completed.

Season add/drop limit: 60

Trade limit: Unlimited

Trade deadline: NHL trade deadline


Team Assets at Time of Deep Analysis:


Roster:

Montreal Canadiens (Main Roster)

Centers: Backstrom, Plekanec, Bozak, Fisher

Left Wing: Marleau, Cammalleri, Jussi Jokinen, Paajarvi, Avery, Smyth, Cooke

Right Wing: Simmonds, Knuble, Boyes, Yip

Defense: Keith, Streit, McBain, Liles, Fowler, Niskanen

Goalies: Roloson, Leclaire, Niittymaki, Niemi

 

Hamilton Bulldogs (Farm Roster)

Centers: Nyquist, Lehtera, Mike Santorelli, Legwand, Hanzal, Zubrus

Left Wing: Tatar, Beck, Sexton, Harju

Right Wing: Petrov, MacLean, Zharkov, Simon Hjalmarsson, Laliberte

Defense: Lashoff, Jovanovski, Bouwmeester, Postma, Marc-Andre Bourdon

Goalies: Stalock, Janus, Montoya, Wesslau, Cheverie, Maxwell, Budaj

 

Junior Roster: Teemu Pulkkinen, Ludvig Rensfelt, Kevin Sundher, Brooks Macek, Petr Mrazek

 

Background and Environment:


This is the 1st year of the league.  To our GM’s chagrin, late in the inaugural draft the Chicago Blackhawks walked away from Niemi… he was in round 25 and by that time Leclaire and Roloson were available but not much else.   He grabbed them as quick as he could.  Thankfully Niemi landed a job with Sharks to give the Canadiens the goalie handcuff.

 

He wants to be a contender soon and already traded Dubinsky for Boyes to help out at RW.  He says that the league has been pretty tight with trades so far but it’s early in the league so that’s pretty understandable.

 

A Look at League Strategy:


First step in looking at the strategy for any league is to understand the scoring system, statistics, and player values.  Because this league is SO deep with virtually every fantasy-worthy NHL player owned, we made a few assumptions about the positions when entering them:

  • We ignored the bench and utility positions because this league is SO deep we simply didn’t know which players would be fitting into which slots.
  • Those 3 F slots were distributed evenly among the 3 “core” forward positions: C, LW and RW.  Honestly, this bad boy is such a deep league that it’ll be more a case of trying to find any productive body to fit into a forward slot than optimizing which slot they’re in!

 

After inputting the league setup into the site, our first stop is the League Breakdown.

If you don’t do this with your league, you won’t know at what values in each stat category will be letting your team down – the underlying principle is that by having a well balanced team, you can weather fluctuations in production (slumps, injuries, etc) much better than if your roster is filled with “specialist” players that contribute to specific categories.  The League Breakdown let’s you know the threshold in each statistical category at which a player’s stats hurt a team, rather than help a team.  For this league, it is:

 

Position

G

A

P

+/-

PIM

PPP

SHP

GWG

SHOTS

C

25

37

62

4

46

21

2

4

193

LW

26

29

54

3

43

17

1

4

194

RW

24

27

51

2

43

16

1

4

189

D

10

30

40

3

47

19

1

2

142

 

What does this tell us about strategy in this league?

 

  • Defenders only really fall behind forwards in this setup when it comes to shots, G, A, and P.  There’s no discernable (or statistically significant) leg up that defenders have anywhere else.  Because of this, there is an inherent disadvantage to dressing defense in the utility roster spots, which can be used for any forwards.  So, don’t dress defenders in the utility slots.
  • Approximately 200 shots is the magic number: players that shoot less than that should be avoided, unless they perform particularly well in another category.
  • Similarly, 45-50 PIM is a reasonable cut-off to shoot for

 

That takes care of strategy as it relates to skaters.  But what about the goaltenders?  The League Breakdown for goalies:

 

Position

W

SO

SV

GAA

SV%

G

33

5

1,716

2.54

0.917

 

What does this tell you about the goalies?

 

  • As with most category-totals leagues, goalies are very important in this one too.  Of 14 total scoring categories, 5 are for goaltenders – that’s almost 36% of scoring being contributed by two starting goaltenders, or 8% of the starting roster.  Hate to sound like a broken record but goaltending is critically important in this league.  You might have noticed that we recycle that line for every article!  It’s not our fault that very few fantasy hockey GMs play in leagues where goaltending isn’t a huge part of scoring.

 

A critical thing to consider in any league format is the impact that injuries can have on a roster.  This league is a head-to-head league with weekly matchups and a playoff format to determine the winner.  What does that tell us?  The first, and most important thing, is that the playoffs happen in the last month of the season so that’s when you want to have the most production out of your roster, provided your team is good enough to make the playoffs in the first place.

 

Did we mention that this league has a salary cap?  That’s so important to the valuing of players and strategy that it gets its own section.

 

The Team – Just Statistical Value:


Using the Canadien’s guidance, they want to win right away!  To understand the value of his players, we’ll generate rankings customized for this specific league setup using last year’s statistics as a benchmark.  The summary of the players are below.

 

Player

Position

GP

G

A

P

+/-

PIM

SHOTS

GWG

PPP

SHP

HPG Value

Nicklas Backstrom

C

82

33

63

96

30

40

183

4

39

0

60.2

Tomas Plekanec

C

81

25

41

66

5

49

201

4

23

3

12.2

Mike Fisher

C

79

25

25

50

1

69

204

5

10

3

-13.1

Tyler Bozak

C

37

8

19

27

-5

6

51

1

5

0

-103.7

Patrick Marleau

LW

79

43

33

76

21

24

238

8

26

4

58

Mike Cammalleri

LW

70

28

42

70

7

30

229

4

27

0

28.3

Jussi Jokinen

LW

75

28

27

55

3

27

131

5

19

0

-10.5

Sean Avery

LW

56

11

15

26

0

142

122

2

5

0

-36.1

Matt Cooke

LW

78

15

14

29

17

99

93

1

2

1

-46.3

Magnus Paajarvi

LW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brandon Yip

RW

32

11

8

19

5

22

65

2

5

0

-78.1

Wayne Simmonds

RW

80

17

21

38

22

95

127

3

3

1

-18.4

Mike Knuble

RW

78

33

24

57

23

64

168

5

23

1

28.5

Brad Boyes

RW

82

30

18

48

1

24

208

8

17

0

1.7

Ryan Smyth

LW

66

22

29

51

8

51

209

3

18

0

-2.5

Duncan Keith

D

80

14

47

61

21

56

177

1

14

4

39.1

Mark Streit

D

79

13

37

50

0

46

167

2

25

1

22.5

John-Michael Liles

D

72

8

29

37

-2

29

136

1

22

0

-10.7

Matt Niskanen

D

77

5

14

19

-15

35

106

1

6

0

-55.1

Jamie McBain

D

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cam Fowler

D

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FARM TEAM

David Legwand

C

73

15

21

36

-5

31

156

2

8

2

-60.8

Martin Hanzal

C

76

11

21

32

0

57

119

2

6

1

-66.5

Dainius Zubrus

C

72

14

23

37

-5

45

115

3

8

0

-61.5

Dan Sexton

LW

41

9

10

19

-3

16

93

0

3

0

-85

Matt Lashoff

D

75

1

5

6

-2

14

56

0

3

0

-85

Ed Jovanovski

D

76

11

29

40

-12

78

184

3

20

1

15.4

Jay Bouwmeester

D

82

11

20

31

-4

63

165

1

13

1

-11

 

The Canadiens also show Paajarvi, McBain, on the main roster.  This is actually a very prudent move!  We’re not projection experts, so we haven’t done projections for these players, who all have a very small body of NHL stats to pull from, if any at all!  Feeling gutsier than us?  You can use the What If? Tool to see what their hypothetical production might be worth if they all made their respective teams and played a full season:

 

Player

Position

GP

G

A

P

+/-

PIM

SHOTS

GWG

PPP

SHP

HPG Value

Magnus Paajarvi

LW

82

20

30

50

5

20

175

1

10

0

-31.1

Cam Fowler

D

82

5

30

35

5

30

150

1

20

0

-11.6

Jamie McBain

C

82

10

30

40

5

50

150

1

20

0

1.0

 

 

Now the goalies:

 

Player

GP

W

SO

SV%

SV

GAA

HPG Value

Antti Niemi

48

25

5

0.917

1238

2.33

-21.5

Antero Niittymaki

40

20

1

0.918

1121

2.59

-83.1

Dwayne Roloson

58

26

1

0.907

1583

2.96

-66.6

Pascal Leclaire

53

23

4

0.907

1360

3.00

-47.4

Petr Budaj

14

5

1

0.917

354

2.91

-141.3

 

Salary Cap:


To be competitive, a GM needs not only to optimize the production (and value) out of their team, but has to keep the team under the salary cap.  Details, details!

 

Normally, we’d advocate setting budgets based on $/point, but since this league scores so many categories, we’re going to have to go with $/HPG value.

 

So let’s start from the start!

 

The salary cap for this league is $79.4 million, for the main roster of 24 players.  That gives a budget of $3.3 million for each player.  It’s important to set a budget for production (expressed as HPG value) for each position, so we are proposing that in order to put forward a winning team you’ll need to be at least 10% above average for skaters, 5% for goalies.  Using the results from the League Breakdown as a starting point – the League Breakdown shows the “average” player at each position, and average has a value of zero in our world – we then add the buffer to each stat to make a competitive team, then use the What If? Tool to find out what that production would mean in terms of HPG value, we get the following:

 

Position

G

A

P

+/-

PIM

PPP

SHP

GWG

SHOTS

HPG VALUE

C

28

41

69

4

51

23

2

4

212

15.5

LW

29

32

61

3

47

19

1

4

213

13.7

RW

26

30

56

2

47

18

1

4

208

12.9

D

11

33

44

3

52

21

1

2

156

12.1

 

Position

W

SO

SV

GAA

SV%

HPG VALUE

G

35

5

1,802

2.41

0.922

12.7

 

Each team will have 24 players, so assuming each team carries 6C, 5LW, 5RW, 5D, 3G = 24, that makes a composite average of a HPG value of 13.5 for each player.  $3.3 million per player, and we know the HPG value that each position needs to deliver in order to be on budget:

 

Position

$

HPG VALUE

$ / HPG VALUE

C

3.3M

15.5

~213k

LW

3.3M

13.7

~241k

RW

3.3M

12.9

~256k

D

3.3M

12.1

~273k

G

3.3M

12.7

~260k

Composite

3.3M

13.5

~245k

 

So there you have it!  For every $245k that is spent on salary in this league, they need to produce an HPG value of 1.0 in order to be on budget.

 

Back to the Team – Tying it all together:


So how do the players on the Habs of the Slap Shot Hockey league do when placed against the cold, hard, analytical light of a budget process?  Let’s look at it position by position, using an average salary for the next 3 years.  When players have contracts shorter than that, we’ve taken the average of the remaining contract.  If the player hasn’t signed, we’ll just have to guess!

 

Player

Position

HPG Value

Salary ($M)

Nicklas Backstrom

C

60.2

6

Tomas Plekanec

C

12.2

5

Mike Fisher

C

-13.1

3.67

Tyler Bozak

C

-103.7

0.875

Patrick Marleau

LW

58

6.9

Mike Cammalleri

LW

28.3

6

Jussi Jokinen

LW

-10.5

1.9

Sean Avery

LW

-36.1

4

Matt Cooke

LW

-46.3

1.8

Magnus Paajarvi

LW

-31.1

0.9

Brandon Yip

RW

-78.1

0.725

Wayne Simmonds

RW

-18.4

0.525

Mike Knuble

RW

28.5

2.8

Brad Boyes

RW

1.7

4.25

Ryan Smyth

LW

-2.5

5

Duncan Keith

D

39.1

8

Mark Streit

D

22.5

4.1

John-Michael Liles

D

-10.7

4.5

Matt Niskanen

D

-55.1

2

Jamie McBain

D

1

0.85

Cam Fowler

D

-11.6

0.9

Antero Niittymaki

G

-83.1

2

Antti Niemi

G

-21.5

2

Dwayne Roloson

G

-66.6

3

Pascal Leclaire

G

-47.4

3.6

 

 

 

 

FARM TEAM

David Legwand

C

-60.8

4.2

Martin Hanzal

C

-66.5

2

Dainius Zubrus

C

-61.5

3.4

Dan Sexton

LW

-85

0.575

Matt Lashoff

D

-85

0.575

Ed Jovanovski

D

15.4

6.5

Jay Bouwmeester

D

-11

6.6

 

One little issue though… what do we do about all the players with negative HPG values?  When you divide their value into the salary budget, you’ll get something absolutely nonsensical.  Hours and hours and hours of thinking pass.

 

We spent so much time trying to understand, on a mathematical level, the best way to approach this that our heads nearly exploded.  No joke.  Bottom line: a player with a negative HPG value absolutely must not have a big salary.  The team, on the whole, should have a total HPG value somewhere around 13.5 or better.

 

A Look at the Roster:


With relative freedom of movement up and down between the Pro and Farm rosters during the season (obviously limited by cap considerations), those two teams need to be assessed for both short and long term competitiveness in this league.  However, while pro roster can all be assessed on the short and long term scales, not all of the farm team will be active in the NHL this season, so there is a reasonable separation between farm team players who can serve the short term needs of this team and the players who are in essence prospects for the future.  The prospect’s team is just that, a place to incubate/monitor players who may or may not contribute in future years.

 

So it seems reasonable to analyze this team on two fronts. First, it’s competitiveness for this season and secondly on its longer term outlook.

 

Short-Term Outlook:


Let’s get after the short term outlook for this team.

 

Obviously, the idea is to ice the best pro team possible, from the players held, that allow the team to stay under the league salary cap.

 

 

 

Farm Roster Size: 29/35

 

JUNIOR ROSTER

Draft Year

Teemu

Pulkkinen

LW

DET

2010

Ludvig

Rensfelt

LW

CHI

2010

Kevin

Sundher

C

BUF

2010

Brooks

Macek

C

DET

2010

Petr

Mrazek

G

DET

2010

 

That is, the best team possible when you consider the scoring categories for the league, of course.  It is reasonable to assume that each roster spot will have a player assigned to it for starters and that the utility positions will have forwards assigned to them because depth defensemen won’t produce enough to warrant that slot.  With a significant weight to goalie stats, a bench goalie is desirable and with so many forward slots in a daily starts league, at least two bench slots should likely be assigned to forwards and probably all of the 3 remaining.  Unless a team has a reserve defenseman who is going to post over 40 points, forwards make the most sense in terms of the bench positions.

 

So with that in mind and after carefully examining the Canadiens roster for producing players for this year – we decided that the following pro roster is the most likely to get the best results (barring injury) and still be within the salary cap.

 

C: Backstrom, Plekanec, Bozak

LW: Cammalleri, Marleau, J. Jokinen

RW: Simmonds, Knuble, Boyes

F: Yip, Fisher, Paajarvi

Util: Smyth, Avery

D: Keith, Streit, McBain, Liles

G:  Leclaire, Niemi

B: Niittymaki, Hanzal, Cooke, Zharkov

 

This means a cap hit of $78,685,000 and a surplus under the cap of $715,000 – a little wiggle room but not much – if injuries strike, it could mean moving up weak producers to fill roster spots, because guys who might produce are simply too expensive.

 

So rather than examine the reasons why these guys were selected, let’s look at the options to them – it becomes very clear that there really isn’t much room in setting the pro roster.  Jovanovski and Bouwmeester are simple too high priced for their production to consider for an active roster spot.  To play them would require a watering down of forward spots without a reasonable return.  Zubrus, Legwand, Roloson could be considered for a roster spot, but quite simply their production per salary ratio just doesn’t make them particularly valuable.  Budaj is a backup and needs to stay on the farm team in case of injury.  Fowler, Santorelli, Sexton, Harju and Niskanen are possible and may get injury call ups during the season but with the exception of Niskanen and perhaps Fowler, they aren’t real prizes at this time to be on a starting roster.

 

Soooo, let’s assume we have the best pro roster we are going to squeeze out of this team.  How does it look for this year?

 

PRO ROSTER:

2010-2011

C

Backstrom

Nicklas

C

$6,000,000

C

Plekanec

Tomas

C

$5,000,000

C

Bozak

Tyler

C

$875,000

LW

Cammalleri

Michael

LW

$5,000,000

LW

Marleau

Patrick

C/LW

$6,900,000

LW

Jokinen

Jussi

LW

$1,900,000

RW

Simmonds

Wayne

RW

$525,000

RW

Knuble

Mike

RW

$2,800,000

RW

Boyes

Brad

RW

$4,500,000

F

Yip

Brandon

RW

$700,000

F

Fisher

Mike

C

$4,000,000

F

Paajarvi

Magnus

LW

$900,000

Util

Smyth

Ryan

 

$5,500,000

Util

Avery

Sean

 

$4,000,000

D

Keith

Duncan

D

$8,000,000

D

Streit

Mark

D

$4,100,000

D

McBain

Jamie

D

$850,000

D

Liles

J.M.

D

$4,425,000

G

Leclaire

Pascale

G

$4,800,000

G

Nittymaki

Antero

G

$2,000,000

BN

Hanzal

Martin

C

$1,500,000

BN

Cooke

Matt

LW

$1,800,000

BN

Zharkov

Vladimir

RW

$610,000

BN

Niemi

Antii

G

$2,000,000

TOTAL:

$78,685,000

CAP:

$79,400,000

CAP SPACE:

$715,000

 

FARM ROSTER

2010-2011

Nyquist

Gustav

C/W

DET

NCAA

Lehtera

Jori

C

STL

$731,250

Santorelli

Mike

C

FLA

$600,000

Legwand

David

C

NSH

$4,500,000

Zubrus

Dainius

C/W

NJD

$3,400,000

Petrov

Kirill

RW

NYI

N/A

MacLean

Brett

RW

PHX

$787,500

Hjalmarsson

Simon

RW

STL

N/A

Laliberte

David

RW

PHI

$550,000

Tatar

Tomas

LW

DET

$640,000

Beck

Taylor

LW

NSH

$690,000

Sexton

Dan

LW

ANA

$575,000

Harju

Johan

LW

TBL

$787,500

Fowler

Cam

D

ANA

$900,000

Niskanen

Matt

D

DAL

$1,250,000

Lashoff

Matt

D

TOR

$575,000

Jovanovski

Ed

D

PHX

$6,500,000

Bouwmeester

Jay

D

CGY

$6,600,000

Postma

Paul

D

ATL

$662,500

Bourdon

M.A.

D

PHI

$712,500

Stalock

Alex

G

SJ

$785,000

Roloson

Dwayne

G

NYI

$3,000,000

Janus

Jaroslav

G

TBL

$658,333

Montoya

Al

G

PHX

$750,000

Wesslau

Gustaf

G

CBJ

$790,000

Cheverie

Mark

G

FLA

$850,000

Maxwell

Brandon

G

COL

N/A

Budaj

Peter

G

COL

$1,250,000

 

Forwards: A mixture of vets and  prospects.  The vets for the most part will produce well – if they hold the line from last season and Boyes and Avery can step it up – they are pretty solid with decent across the board production.  The prospect types on the forward lines definitely have the potential to supplement the vets well this season.  The progress of Bozak, MPS, Zharkov and Yip this season needs to be there for this forward group to rate much better than 4th through 6th in this league though (which isn’t so bad, actually).

 

Defense: The starting D for this team is very good if McBain has a good season.  Knowing that Niskanen is on the farm as a call up and perhaps even Fowler, if he gets going, is reassuring. With these 6 and Lashoff, Postma and Bourdon on the back burner – the Canadiens are quite well set for the season and beyond.  Bouwmeester and Jovanovski will never figure into this team’s efforts unless they are traded for something useful.  Too little production for the production they provide.  Anyway, the D corps is solid and it’s a strength of the team, if a little pricey.

 

Goal: Having a goalie tandem in this league set-up is not good in general, it decreases games played over having two independent goalies and it essentially sucks up a roster position that could be allocated elsewhere – 2 goalies, same team = 1 goalie.  However, the tandem of Niemi and Niittymaki should be one of the best in the league, so one can’t be too upset at that.  Leclaire is the X factor – if he can stay healthy, he is a very good goalie and the 3 tenders should make the Canadiens at least competitive in the goalie categories and on any given week maybe even unbeatable.  Goes like that in H2H sometimes.  If Leclaire isn’t able to stay healthy then a call-up of Roloson is the likely remedy.  Dipietro may have something to say about that being a viable thing – time will tell.  Generally, the Canadiens goaltending is shaky, it could be pretty good but certainly we would be looking for other options.

 

Reserves: The Canadiens are quite thin on farm reserves for the purposes of callups for this season.  There are few players on the farm roster who will produce to any degree this season and just about all of them are somewhat expensive and that will create salary cap pressure if they are called up.  A large portion of the farm team is too far off producing in the NHL to be useful this season.  So as a “this year” asset, the farm roster rates very poorly.

 

Summary of Short Term Outlook: This team will have to go injury free for the most part and have all the starting roster players have a good season to be truly competitive in this league.  It should make the playoffs however (we aren’t sure how many teams make the playoffs but we assume 8), and anything can happen in the playoffs.  We just think with the goalie issue at hand and a roster with so many prospect types who aren’t likely to be high producers this season, that a top half of the league finish but not in the top 3 is the most likely scenario.

 

If the Canadiens were able to trade for more stable goaltending and upgrade their starting prospects to midrange veteran producers, the outlook might look brighter – however the cost of doing that might not be worth it.  It might require the sacrificing of good prospects and that still won’t assure a finish in the money.

 

Now, if the Canadiens could magically convert Bouwmeester and Jovanovski into some producing veteran forwards or a good goaltending option, then the game might change.  Those two players in particular, if traded, would equate to getting something for nothing in this league – they are real albatrosses.  Legwand, Zubrus, Roloson and Budaj to a lesser degree would also fit the bill, but they may also be enough currency to build a little more depth in prospects for this team.

 

Longer-Term Outlook:


The Canadiens roster is for the most part young enough not to be concerned about the replacement of aging players – Knuble and perhaps Ryan Smyth are getting close to the bubble here, but they could also have a few good seasons ahead, so not a major concern.  Hence, the core roster of pro’s will remain intact for some time to come - barring injury, trades to bad situations or some unpredictable drop-off in performance.  It’s a decent core to build a better team around.  Other than a modest increase in salary for Backstrom and Hanzal and a likely increase in a Niemi resigning, the salary increases to be concerned about will be prospect re-signings and no one looks posed to break the bank on this team.

 

There aren’t really any prospects on this team who might be considered fast emerging however (at least not yet).  Brett McLean, Fowler, Bozak, Yip and MPS all have the probability of leveling up season over season though and that should produce a stronger roster.  You always want more and better of course, but in a 14 team league, there is only so much to go around.  This team will get better next year with the development of these prospect types.

 

For the most part, the further off prospects on this team are pretty decent.  Some guys with high end potential for sure.  Prospects are prospects and it is really hard to predict who will make the show and with what impact, but the Canadiens have a thoughtful selection of forwards, defensemen and goalies that should produce some solid NHLers down the road. This team should get better over time as these prospects develop and take a spot on the pro roster or serve as trade bait for productive roster guys.

 

It is our assessment that the farm team is a little overbuilt on defense – realistically a starting roster number of 5 maximum and perhaps 4 guys on the farm developing is really sufficient on a rolling basis.  Now with deep roster like this league has, extra high end D prospects can be carried, but to carry marginal prospects on D isn’t a good use of space. A focus on more forwards and goaltending prospects would make more sense.

 

The team has a decent selection of prospect goalies, but nothing ‘oh wow’.  That isn’t to say one of the prospects won’t become a very serviceable pro goalie, though.  We believe that it is hard to have too many goalie prospects because so few actually make the show, so we would encourage the Canadiens to continue seeking out goalie prospects and adding them to the farm roster.

 

Summary of Long Term Outlook: Well, one of the beauties of this team is that the farm team isn’t full of marginal NHLers, so with careful culling, quick and thoughtful FA pickups, astute trades and good drafting – this team should get better over the next few seasons. It has prospects that should help improve the team over time.

 

Recommendations:


If some of the high priced farm help can be moved for decent prospects or additional draft picks, this will enhance the team’s long term outlook.  Guys like Zubrus, Legwand, Jaybo and Jovanovski are ultimately a waste of roster space – get what you can and move on.

 

The farm team should be filled to it’s maximum capacity – there is little point in having a farm team spot vacant.  There is also no limit to the number of players you can draft for the junior roster, so if an extra pick comes along on deals, take it – it can never hurt.  If players don’t develop well enough in the two years you can hold them on the junior roster – cut em loose.

 

It is hard to see any obvious trading priorities at this point, except perhaps in goal and for developing depth on the farm.  Given the potential of Leclaire to be a solid producer and the possibility of one of the Sharks tenders taking control of the starting position – this is probably not the time to make a move that costs much.  If some of the backups in the league come available (like Crawford, Schneider, etc) and the price is right, go for it.  The more the merrier in goal. Generally, as this is the first year of the league, a bit of a wait and see approach to trading might be the best approach – unless of course a no-brainer is plopped on the table for you.

 

Be on the lookout for shooters and goalscorers with some grit.  This league places value on that in a player – guys like Clarkson (NJ) and  to a lesser extent, Jones (Col) are the type of player that contribute well in this league for a good price.

 

Above all be patient, don’t sell off your good prospects before their time, let them mature.  Short term acquisitions with limited upside, will seldom help you build a competitive team.  Take your lumps if you have to – keep an eye on the big picture.

 

It really helps in a league like this to take the measure of your competitor’s management capacity and trading acumen, especially in the first few months of the league.  Before guys get settled into what the league is all about, it can be very profitable to conclude some strategic trades.  These trades will tend to be future oriented, going after prospects who won’t get to the show for a year or two.  We can’t stress enough the value in the long term of having very solid if not spectacular roster players who have reasonable contracts.


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Pengwin7 said:

Pengwin7
0.000 HPG value I have read several of HPG's articles & visited the site several times.
GREAT, GREAT, GREAT STUFF! Amazing. As a numbers guy, the math is terrific - and I only offer one small piece of advice - the 0.000 HPG rating for players could be adjusted to a better location.

I believe, correct me if I'm wrong, the 0.000 HPG rating is set as the average stastical output for a starter at a given position. Could the 0.000 mark be set as the last qualifying starter at that position for all teams in the league. If the league is 14 teams x 3 LW = 42 LW, then the HPG value = 0.000 should be set as the statistics averaged by the 42nd best LW (the last starter). Or could you adjust the last qualifying starter to 0.000 (if the current HPG for the 42nd LW = -60.5, just add 60.5 to the value of all LW for new values?). This would give HPG values as positives for all starters.

Same theory as the way the 0°C temperature mark is really 273°K.

Any player who qualifies as a starter at a given position really should be a 0.000 or +.

This might solve quandries such as:
"One little issue though… what do we do about all the players with negative HPG values? When you divide their value into the salary budget, you’ll get something absolutely nonsensical."

EXCELLENT ANALYSIS THOUGH... AS ALWAYS!
September 24, 2010
Votes: +0

HPG said:

fantasyhockeygeek
... Jer, check page 85 of the latest version of Dobber's guide. All your answers are there! smilies/grin.gif
September 24, 2010 | url
Votes: +0

Jeremy Wark said:

jer_33
Existing clients? Any way for existing HPG/Dobber customers to get the Dobber stats loaded up?

I did a buch of work to fit it into a CSV file and could never get it to upload properly.

Jer
September 24, 2010
Votes: +1
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