Koivu

 

Over the course of the last few weekends, I participated in a few, (about 35), Yahoo! mock drafts to gain a better grasp of what’s been going on in the real fantasy hockey world and thought that I’d pass my findings onto you Dobberities. I participated in random drafts ranging from eight to 14 teams from H2H to Roto leagues with standard settings. Last week I covered players that seem to be overvalued and overreached at the draft table, this week we’ll take a look at the opposite.

 

 

Corey Perry – RW– Anaheim Ducks

High: 23

Low: 48

Average: 39.0

Yahoo-Rank: 43

 

What a difference 12 months makes for fantasy poolies. A year ago, Perry would have been considered a sure-fire lock as a first round pick, but heading into 2010-11, he’s largely been considered a “has-been” with poolies as shown with his near 40th average draft position. If you look at his numbers, he’s averaged 0.88 points, 1.43 PIMs, 0.28 PPP, and 3.27 SOG per contest during the last three seasons. If he can stay relatively healthy for a full 82-game campaign, you could receive a very owner-friendly end of season stat line of 72 points, 117 PIMS, 23 PPP, and 268 SOG, which would certainly be great value if you managed to snag Perry with a late-30’s/early 40’s pick. I know that I’ve mentioned holding off on drafting RW last week, but I think you can make an exception for Perry if he’s just dangling right in front of you.

 

Paul Stastny – C – Colorado Avalanche

High: 33

Low: 169

Average: 69.9

Yahoo-Rank: 53

 

During the summer I’ve had a few opportunities to discuss Statsny’s status for this upcoming season. You can read more about it here and here. To sum it up, basically he’s got top five scoring potential in him. Every time I watch him play, he just exudes confidence and creates offense much like Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, and Evgeni Malkin. The Avs, in my opinion, will be the Canucks of last year, where the entire team took a huge offensive step forward together and that Stastny will mirror the output that Henrik Sedin displayed last campaign. Obviously, I have high hopes for Statsny, and you probably should too!

 

Ales Hemsky – RW – Edmonton Oilers

High: 49

Low: 165

Average: 105.8

Yahoo-Rank: 101

 

I’m not a big fan of band-aid boys as they are huge potential boom or bust candidates. Being the conservative fantasy player that I am, I’d much prefer consistency over “potential” any day. With that said, Hemsky, who is being consistently left off the draft board, could prove to be great value as long as you have a pretty solid backup plan in place. Since the lockout, he’s averaged 0.93 points and 2.32 SOG per-game played, the problem of course is you don’t know whether he’s going to play 22, 65 or 82 games. With RW being a deep as it is, if you manage to snag Hemmer as a third RW, you could be laughing by the end of the season. If you are thinking of snagging him as your second RW, just make sure you pick up a pretty solid handcuff in Jason Pominville or Dustin Brown late in your drafts.

 

Mikko Koivu – C- Minnesota Wild

High: 90

Low: 213

Average: 132.1

Yahoo-Rank: 106

 

If you haven’t had a chance to checkout www.hockeypoolgeek.com, definitely go and spend a few minutes playing around with the settings, it’ll definitely be worth your while. If you look at the rankings in terms of impact on fantasy leagues, the geek has Koivu ranked above household names like, Vinny Lecavalier, Ryan Getzlaf, Pavel Datsyuk, and Jeff Carter, which should send a pretty clear message as to what his fantasy worth really is. With that said, there are always two sides to a story, and the flip side is that Koivu is recovering from both off-season shoulder and knee surgeries, which is never a good thing heading into a brand new season. The positive is that he had the procedure done in early April, which gave him a decent five months of recovery time. From all of the reports that I’ve read, they all mentioned that he’s fully recovered. I’d probably stamp a tread carefully mark on him, but then again you won’t find very many top-line centers who contributes as much as Koivu does at that late of a draft position, so he’s definitely worth the roster top-up selection.

 

Olli Jokinen – C – Calgary Flames

High: 93

Low: 184

Average: 156.8

Yahoo-rank: 123

Similar to Statsny, I wrote quite a bit on Jokinen in the forums during the summer, read it here. If you don’t pay too much attention to the points, Jokinen is actually one of the best across-the-board producers for peripheral stats in fantasy hockey leagues. If you used his three year average to simulate for an upcoming 82-game season, Jokinen would produce a line of 60 points, 71 PIMs, 23 PPP, and 278 SOG, which would mirror very closely to Mike Richard's 62 points, 79 PIMs, 31 PPP and 237 SOG that he put up last season. Considering Jokinen is being drafted nearly 120 spots after Richards, that’s plenty good value that you are receiving at a bargain basement price.

 

Patrick Sharp – C/LW – Chicago Blackhawks

High: 64

Low: 191

Average: 111.7

Yahoo-Rank: 212

 

Did Yahoo! really drop the ball on this one or what? How can a player who picked up 66 points, a plus 24 rating, and 266 SOG last season be ranked so bloody low? What makes it hurt even more is the fact that he is part of the select few who have gained the unique dual eligibility to start the season, and in one of the weakest positions to fill in fantasy hockey. I dunno what Yahoo! was thinking, but I’m definitely slotting Sharp higher in my draft lists than they have and it appears that many of you have too!

 

Martin Havlat – RW – Minnesota Wild

High: 69

Low: largely undrafted (212 drafted)

Average: 162.4

Yahoo-Rank: 234

 

Last season, I pegged Havlat as a “not with a 10-foot pole” candidate because there just wasn’t a lot of protection or support for him in Minnesota. This year, they have a pretty clear cut top-line of Andrew Brunette, Mikko Koivu, and Annti Miettinen. Throw in the possible return of PMB, a full year of Guillaume Latendresse, and the recent additions of Matt Cullen and John Madden and Havlat now has plenty of protection and support. I wouldn’t project point-per-game numbers for him, but I’d head into this season expecting about 10-15 more than the 54 points that he tallied last campaign. Considering he’s mostly being picked up in the last rounds of fantasy drafts, or in some cases not even selected at all, that’s a pretty low price to pay for someone with pretty high potential.

 

Andrew Brunette – LW – Minnesota Wild

High: undrafted

Low: undrafted

Average: undrafted

Yahoo-Rank: 276

 

If you’re like me and consistency is your thing, you don’t have to look any further than Brunette. I’m going to pretty much echo what I wrote in the fantasy guide. In the past five seasons, Brunette has posted pretty consistent numbers of 81.6 appearances, 16:25 TOI/game average, 63.2 points and 134.8 SOG per campaign. As long as you don’t expect anything more from him, he could be a solid pillar to lean on especially for those who opted to hold out on drafting quality LW early.

 

Stephane Robidas – D – Dallas Stars

High: 101

Low: 167

Average: 133.2

Yahoo-Rank: 158

 

As you can tell, players who contribute across-the-board I hold to a pretty high esteem, which is why Robidas also makes my “U&U” list. HPG has Robidas listed as the 18th ranked defenseman in terms of default settings for Yahoo! leagues, but he’s been treated consistently as a high 30’s or even in the 40’s defenseman. Considering he averaged 24:29 per contest and 3:09 on the PP, there will be plenty of opportunities for him to repeat 2009-10 this campaign. Don’t forget his name come draft day.

 

Marek Zidlicky – D – Minnesota Wild

High: 124

Low: 174

Average: 166.7

Yahoo-Rank: 196

 

A second “U&U” defenseman that is a favourite of mine is Zidlicky. He has a career 0.56 point and 0.96 PIM per contest average, which would pro-rate to 46 points and 78 PIMs at the end of the year. The only major knock on him would be his run of the mill career 1.46 SOG per contest average, but at a bargain basement price of the 166th pick, he’ll definitely be worth the investment.

 

Lubomir Visnovsky – D – Anaheim Ducks

High: 68

Low: 156

Average: 124.5

Yahoo-Rank: 139

 

Angus stole a bit of my thunder on the weekend, as I was about to announce that I thought Visnovsky could be the biggest “steal of the year” candidate heading into this year’s drafts. Last season, the Ducks were tied with the Sharks for the fourth best power-play efficiency in the league. The only major change that has occurred is that Scott Niedermayer has been replaced by Vizzy, but that’s not much of a downgrade at all. They still have Ryan Getzlaf, Bobby Ryan, Teemu Selanne and the aforementioned Perry, so I fully expect them to repeat what they did last year once again. I too have no problems thinking that he will lead the Western Conference blue-liners in points scored.

 

Other Notable Western Conference “U&U” players:

 

Centers

RW

LW

D

G

Sam Gagner

Joe Pavelski

James Neal

Alex Edler

Jonas Hiller

Derick Brassard

Jason Pominville

Alex Tanguay

Brent Burns

Steve Mason

Matt Lombardi

Dustin Brown

 

Rest mostly out East

J.M. Liles

Marty Turco

Shawn Horcoff

Brad Boyes

Kyle Quincey

Andrew Raycroft

Mike Ribeiro

J.P. Dumont

Tom Gilbert

Chris Osgood

 

 

Did I forget anyone? Or have a few “U&U” candidates of your own? Questions or comments? As always I’ll be ready and willing to discuss them with you in the comments section below.

 

 


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Comments (18)add comment

horrorfan said:

horrorfan
Great article Ryan Just want to say thanks for putting this together Ryan. It's very helpful.
September 16, 2010
Votes: +0

TML said:

TML
Macdonald Forgot to say in my other post, but Andy Macdonald is a steal in my mind as well. Could rebound for 65-70 points next year.
September 15, 2010
Votes: +0

Isle B. said:

Isle B.
Avs & Canucks I really don't see the comparison between last year's Canucks and this year's Avs.

While the Sedins busting out was a surprise, the Canucks already had lots of depth and were on many people's short list of cup contenders going into last year. Right now, the Avs more closely resemble the Blue Jackets from the year before-- a young team coming off a season in which they might have played a little over their heads and rode a hot goalie into a playoff spot. They completely faded down the stretch when Craig Anderson came back to Earth and that first round series going as deep as it did was more a function of the Sharks nearly self-destructing than the Avs playing well.
September 15, 2010
Votes: +0

chris hayward said:

christopher929
Band Aid Boys
If you play in a Yahoo league you have 164 games per forward position (two lines or two players per position.) A player like Hemsky who can get you roughly point per game is great as a #2 or #3 winger - when he gets hurt just fill in what category is lacking on your team and be grateful for the games he is able to play.
September 15, 2010
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Colorado

Yeah I think it's trying to find that happy medium... I mean every year there's surprise teams, last season it was Van, Bos the year before, Mon/Car the year before that... it's trying to find the formula to figure out who it is for the upcoming year.

I think it just trying to find areas where teams can improve and trying to find teams that are at the bottom of the barrel and then investing cheaply on them and hoping they give you a good payday.

No offense to Angus' articles, but players on CHI, PHI, PIT, WSH, VAN are already well known, you won't be able to get those players on the cheap. In fact you'll probably have to overpay to get them because of the hype surrounding them. It's finding the stocks that are low and on the brink of rising that's the hard part...
September 15, 2010
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Marcus

Thanks for the list Dobber passed it on to me last week, I just didn't have enough space to write a blurb about everyone of them, so I had to pick and choose.

Also I left the East players cause I didn't want to tread onto Russ territory.

There's a ton out East especially on LW.

I meant to give you a shout out in the article, but it slipped my mind last minute...
September 15, 2010
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Clowe

The only problem with Clowe is depth charts... behind JT, Marleau, Pavelski, Heatley, Boyle... there's not a lot more points to spread out really... factor in Clowe and Seto and the points are even more scarce.

I think he is undervalued a bit, but I don't really see anything more than a 50 point season from the both of them, and that's kinda borderline own for fantasy leagues...
September 15, 2010
Votes: +0

mike hess said:

SharkMeat
Ryan Thanks You always make me think...I guess that is the definition of a great article....I actually will pick hiller if I get the chance because I think he will surprise. I have always thought Zidlicky is a steady eddy on the D side. The Clowe comment is a good one as well in the comments.

It is interesting when you look at the article on the teams at Dobber Hockey... to stock up on Col is not there...I think you always need to balance the ones that have produced and the ones that may produce..the difference between winning you league or not is getting that part right. Your thoughts on Colorado are spot on if you are willing to take a risk.

Mike
September 14, 2010
Votes: +0

Marcus Lepkowski said:

Blueman
You forgot a few: I have my list of undervalued below (I removed the duplicates from your list). Many of these are available in the last rounds of most drafts.

One quick note - Zidlicky and Havlat had terrible +/- last year (I had them both and remember). It got so bad with Havlat last year that I had to drop him.

RW: Briere, Horton, Downie (PIM's), Samuellson, Hudler, Boyes, Clarkson, Kovalev, Doan
LW: Hartnell (PIM's), Jokinen, Penner, Vanek, Morrow
D: Lidstrom, Rafalski, Letang, Karlsson, Carlson, Whitney, Kubina, Souray (not in Edm, but somewhere)
C: Kesler, Antropov, Kreji, Zajac

**Zetterberg, J. Staal - potential C/LW, Briere - potential C/RW

Cheers,

Blueman
September 14, 2010
Votes: +1

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Colorado

Prior to last season (summer of 2008-09) did you think Vancouver would have pulled off what they did last season? Did you really think that Sedin was anything more than a point-per-game player? Did you think he would go on to win the Art Ross? Did you really think that the Nucks had the 2nd best offense in the league behind only the Caps?

What I'm saying is that prior to last season Vancouver was pretty much in the same situation as what Colorado is in now, pretty run of the mill playoff bound team with upside, no one heading into last season thought that Van would go on to produce the 2nd best offensive numbers in the league, no one thought that Hank would win the Art Ross... it's kinda the same situation as the Avs... The Nucks went from a 11th ranked 2.96 GF/game team to the 2nd ranked 3.27 GF/game team over a course of a year... Col had the 6th ranked 2.89 GF/game team last season, and if they can get hot could possibly mirror what the Nucks did last season.

If you think about factors such as:

1) a full year with Mueller (20 points in 15 contests)...
2) a full year with depth guys like Yip and Jones...
3) Hejduk finally feeling healthy again...
4) Duchene with a full season under his belt...
5) 15th ranked PP last season...

There's a few factors that make sense for the Avs to follow what the Nucks did last season... I wouldn't go around betting the house on it, but I see plenty of similarities.

September 14, 2010
Votes: -1

Let' s Go Rangers said:

Two On One
... How about Ryan Clowe? There isn't that much difference from him and a Scott Hartnell and yet he's way down the list. Thoughts?

Otherwise, great list Ryan! smilies/wink.gif
September 14, 2010
Votes: +1

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Mike

Hiller and Mason I think are, considering they're pretty clear cut number one goalies who can probably get 65 starts, definitely undervalued in my books... there's not much value for Raycoft and Osgood, so there's not much to undervalue the value of nothing...

As for the D, there's plenty of them out there and anything past the 40th D they pretty much all will produce the same type of numbers anyways... Liles/Quincey/Burns are just a couple of favourite of mine.

I've always liked JP and will think he'll do alright, once again pretty much just preferential really...

September 14, 2010
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Zidlicky

Is he injured? Last I heard he was healthy?
September 14, 2010
Votes: +0

John Koten said:

Kotentie
Great list Though I have the feeling that you may tip off my competition. I had half these guys on my yahoo blunders list.
September 14, 2010 | url
Votes: +2

TML said:

TML
... Sssssh............ But good article. One thing you should keep in mind, is that in mock drafts, maximum of 14 teams, players like Raycroft, Orgood, Dumont, Liles, probably should be avoided. I think someone's who's not your lsit who should be is David Backes.

I love picking Havlat int eh last round. smilies/smiley.gif
September 14, 2010
Votes: +0

Big Ev said:

Big Ev
... Stastny's team is miles behind Vancouver in terms of forward talent...they won't even make the playoffs this year. I don't think Stastny has what it takes to put up anywhere close to 110 points or whatever Sedin had last year.
September 14, 2010
Votes: +0

mike hess said:

SharkMeat
comments Ryan..great article, but...
I agree with Hiller, Raycroft, Mason and Osgood maybe unappreciated but not under valued.

Burns, Liles and Quincey...there are so many others better and worth more

Neal and Tanguay...right on

Good RW picks except for JP who I just don't see making fantasy contribution

Centers I agree with as well...most I would not draft but will wait and see to pick up on teh waiver wire if I can...

Mike
September 14, 2010
Votes: +0

Sahil said:

sportsfan23454
... I got Havlat and Zidlicky in my pool. but how long is zidlicky injured?
September 14, 2010 | url
Votes: +0
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