Huselius

 

Once again, much like last year, here’s a list of players who just won’t tickle my fancy. There are a variety of reasons ranging from my dislike of some players, changes to the team during the off-season, recovery from off-season surgery, overvalued rookies/prospects, or just plain over-inflated stats from last season.

 

But first a recap of the hit or misses for the players listed from last season:

 

Bobby Ryan

Miss

Mikka Kiprusoff

Miss

Duncan Keith

Miss

Nikita Filatov

Hit

J.M. Liles

Hit

Loui Eriksson

Miss

Ville Leino

Hit (7 in 42 with Det)

Denis Grebeshkov

Hit

Tom Gilbert

Hit

Oscar Moller

Hit

Martin Havlat

Hit

Phoenix Forward Corps.

Hit

Christian Ehrhoff

Push (traded)

David Backes

Push (probably a miss in many cases)

Alex Burrows

Miss

Pekka Rinne/Dan Ellis

Overall - Push

Rinne – Hit

Ellis – Miss

J.S. Giguere/Jonas Hiller

Overall – Push

Giguere – Miss

Hiller - Hit

Craig Anderson/Peter Budaj

Miss

 

Overall not a bad hit/miss ratio, but probably not the best. I’m a perfectionist so anything less than 100 percent, I’m definitely not happy with. The Ryan situation worked out well for him as Lupul was out for most of the season due to injury. If Lupul was healthy I don’t think Ryan would have put up the numbers that he did last season. Kipper was a miss on my part, as he did finish with a decent line of 35 wins, a 2.31 GAA along with a .920 save percentage, but I think in some people’s books that might have been a hit if they were expecting 40+ wins from him. Keith was my big miss. He silenced all doubters with another great season in Chicago and, with the new stats of hits and blocked shots added to the Yahoo database, could arguably rival Mike Green as the number one fantasy D to own this campaign. Eriksson was another miss on my part. I thought Morrow would be a more dominate force last season, but that just didn’t happen. Burrows finished with 67 points, 121 PIMs and 209 SOG. Pretty significant numbers for the fantasy season really, can’t argue with my miss there. Probably the biggest miss for me last season was Anderson. I just didn’t believe in the Avs and the inexperience of Joe Sacco, like many others out there, it blew up in my face.

 

Here is my list of players from the Western Conference that you won’t likely find on my fantasy rosters in 2010-11:

 

Joffrey Lupul Ana

 

I know I slotted Lupul into my sleepers column for the fantasy guide, but I’m going to pull a quick 180 based on the info coming out of Anaheim. The latest news is that Lupul is suffering another blood infection in his back and won’t even start training till September 20 when his next rounds of antibiotics are finished. Give or take another month to get back into game shape and you’re probably looking at the beginning of November, at the earliest, before he even suits up for a game. By then Teemu Selanne, Bobby Ryan, Dan Sexton, or Jason Blake would have sorted out the top-six and Loops would have missed the gravy train. Consider him a mid-season acquisition rather than someone to actively seek during your pre-season drafts.

 

Daymond Langkow Cal

 

At a price tag of $4.5 mil this season, that’s a huge amount of cash to just bury on the third line, but that’s the most likely scenario that will happen with Langkow this campaign. Sutter brought back Olli Jokinen for a second tour of duty, and combining that with the services of Matt Stajan, I just don’t know where the Flames are going to slot Langkow into their line up. Ice-time will be the key for the veteran Edmontonian, and I just don’t think he’ll get enough of it to be productive fantasy-wise in 2010.

 

Jay Bouwmeester Cal

 

Despite popular belief, JBo is not an offensive defenseman and probably never will be. Yes, I understand that he played for a few very untalented Florida teams to skew the stats, but if you look at his career numbers, they actually average out to a very mundane: 79 GP, 8.3 G, 26.2 A, 34.4 points, a minus three rating, 56 PIMs, 12.8 PPP, and 156 SOG. Considering another defenseman by the name of Denis Seidenberg, who was probably less than five percent owned in Yahoo! Leagues last campaign, put up numbers of 32 points, plus six rating, 39 PIMs, 2 PPP and 153 SOG, which certainly makes JBo’s numbers nothing really “special” does it. Someone is certainly going to buy into his “big name” status, just make sure it isn’t you!

 

 

Brian Campbell Chi

 

There’s not much to dislike about Campbell and the way he approaches the game, but what turns me off from him is the lack of peripheral stats that he brings. It’s nice to have the 40+ points that come attached with his name, but the high teens PIMs, and the low 100’s in SOG could be a major detriment in many fantasy leagues. I’ve had a play around at www.hockeypoolgeek.com, and if you haven’t done so definitely check it out, it takes a lot of the hard work out of researching. They’ve ranked Campbell with a HPG value of just six, when Mike Green has a value of 128 so that should give you a perspective to his overall fantasy value.

 

Craig Anderson Col

 

As discussed earlier, I missed on Anderson last season, but I think this campaign is a whole different ball game. Anderson finished with a great stat line of 38 wins, a 2.63 GAA along with a .917 save percentage, but considering he had a 10-3 record and a 1.77 GAA along with a .939 save percentage against the Oilers, Flames and Blue Jackets. It’s safe to say that those teams are revamped and he’ll have a much more difficult time to repeat those numbers in 2010-11. I wouldn’t doubt a return to Earth this campaign.

 

Kristian Huselius Clb

 

If you look at the overall numbers, Huse is definitely not a bad fantasy own, but the problem that truly affects him is his inconsistency, which is deadly in H2H leagues. His month-to-month breakdown resulted in numbers of 0.75, 1.10, 0.38, 1.21, 0.67, 1.36 and 0.2 last season. Even a Yo-Yo has less up and down cycles. Save yourself the headache and pick up someone more reliable.

 

Kari Lehtonen Dal

 

Strained groin, sprained ankle, back surgery, the list goes on for the poster boy for Dobber’s band-aid list. I just don’t trust him to play a full season as a number one goalie in the NHL. Plenty of people out there will probably echo the same sentiment, which is why you won’t find him on any of my fantasy rosters this season.

 

Jimmy Howard Det

 

Last year I invested heavily on a sophomore goalie named Steve Mason, and was burned in two of my major fantasy pools, one of which included the widely popular Yahoo! Friends and Family league. A few recent examples of Cam Ward, Carey Price, Steve Mason and to a certain extent Jon Quick, has led me to a conclusion to not invest too highly on sophomore goalies. Howard might buck the trend, but with a seasoned veteran like Chris Osgood lurking in the shadows, you definitely have to be open to the fact that Howard’s number one status won’t be etched in stone.

 

Nikolai Khabibulin Edm

 

Continuing the trend of do-not-touch goalies, I’ll add the Bulin wall to the list as well. He’s recently been dropped the hammer on his drink driving case and will most likely miss some time this year because of it. With three other goalies in the mix, Jeff Deslauriers, Devan Dubynk and Martin Gerber, Khabibulin will face some stiff competition when he returns back to the line up and certainly won’t be guaranteed a number one job. Any fantasy value that he might have had entering the season has been destroyed with the latest news.

 

Justin Williams LA

 

Playing with Anze Kopitar certainly brings plenty of potential upside, but the problem is if you spend 60 percent of your season on the shelf with an injury that potential becomes entirely moot. If you’re after Williams you probably wouldn’t have to spend too high of a draft pick, but I’m utilizing my late-round picks on a player with much lower risk.

 

Devin Setoguchi SJ

 

As discussed widely on the forums, I’m a firm believer in artificial caps for certain teams. It’s fairly safe to say that Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley, Patrick Marleau and Joe Pavelski will be the top four point producers in SJ. Factor in Dan Boyle’s production and unless the Sharks suddenly become a five goals scored per contest team, there’s going to be limited supply of points to be spread around. Ryane Clowe and Setoguchi will draw the short end of the stick, which is why you won’t see either of them on my fantasy teams.

 

Blues Forward Corps (minus Backes)

 

The Blues are quickly becoming an offense by committee team, which means that I have no clue who’s going to be the team’s leading scorer by season’s end and that’s generally not a good thing. The Blues have so many interchangeable players that a player slotted on the top-line for one game, could easily find himself in a third line role the next. Instability is never a good thing for fantasy hockey, which is why I’m going to shy away from many Blues during my drafts in the upcoming weeks. Backes is probably my lone exception because I like the across-the-board numbers (including FW) that he brings to the table. Also don’t forget his 266 hits along with his 60 blocked shots, which are now included in Yahoo! leagues.

 

Alex Burrows Van

Shoulder injuries are never a good thing especially if they relate to the dreaded “torn labrum” surgery. Recent victims include Vinny Lecavalier, Zdeno Chara, and Mike Richards, all of which suffered a decrease in point production the year after off-season torn labrum surgery. He’s not slated to return to the Canucks line up till late-November or early-December, which probably dramatically decreases his overall fantasy value anyway. Either way his across-the-board stats are glaringly attractive, but you should know better...

 

 

Stay Away From These Murky Goaltending Situations:

 

Mason/Mathieu Garon

 

This could be the bounce back season for Mason, or it could be another long struggle. Garon did post adequate 2.81 GAA and .903 save percentage numbers as a number two last season and could very well do the same once again this season. If you have better options, you’ll probably prefer that over this situation.

 

Lehtonen/Andrew Raycroft/Richard Bachman/Brent Krahn

 

As discussed earlier, injury proneness and a plethora of quality backups is never a good combination at attempting to play the goalie guessing game. If you snag Lehtonen, it’d be in your best interest to bag yourself the backup as well (although I don’t know who it is going to be).

 

Jaroslav Halak/Ty Conklin

 

If you really think about it, we really only have a bank of around 100 games of data to draw a conclusion on Halak. The Blues management have invested heavily on him, and so will many poolies in the upcoming drafts. The problem for me is that he’s in a division where there are quite a few high scoring teams and he won’t have the protection of a veteran defensive corp. If you decide to invest heavily on Halak make sure you have his buddy in Conks as a plan B.

 

Questions or comments? Like always I’ll be ready and willing to discuss them with you in the comments section below.

 


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Comments (18)add comment

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Lupul

I think that if Lupul was healthy he woulda taken some of that PP time away from Ryan and probably some extra ES time too to spread out the offense. If Lupul was in the lineup I don't think Ryan would have put up the numbers that he did.
September 01, 2010
Votes: -1

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Stajan

To be honest haven't heard that about him at all. I'm not a big Flames fan so I don't watch very many games to tell you the truth.

The thing for me is its all about opportunity. Jokinen seems to get 99 lives in Cowtown, and once again they brought him back for round 2, so I mean that shows you that management is pretty high on him... Chuck in Langkow, Conroy, possibly Backlund and you kinda have a logjam at the C position. The value in Calgary comes with whoever will line up with Iggy. At best if he lines up say 65 games with him he might end up with 70 points, worst case scenario he lines up for 10 and bombs out for 30-40 points... Not a lot of reward for such a high risk player, IMO...
September 01, 2010
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Halak/Howard

Yeah I just don't trust those situations... Halak we really only have 100 games of evidence, not exactly fool proof. I'm not saying it's gonna happen, but if it does you can at least say you were first warned by me!

Same type of deal with Howard. I was burnt very badly by Mason last year, I lost 2 leagues (2nd/ tight 4th) because of him, so I'm bloody bitter. But the recent history of sophomore goalies aren't exactly the most appealing, so you definitely have to be open to the fact that something bad could possibly happen. I think the least you can do is probably grab Osgood late just for your own protection...
September 01, 2010
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Ehrhoff

Yeah I wrote that article prior to him being traded. In SJ I thought he was majorly buried behind Blake, Boyle and Vlasic... Generally speaking if you're buried that deeply you're not in prime position to succeed.

So I think that situation was more of a push more than anything.
September 01, 2010
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Nashville

The difference for me is Nashville has a much weaker bottom six, which means I know clearly where the production is coming from... Lombardi, Erat, Hornqvist, and probably Sullivan, where as with the Blues, I honestly have no clue. To me I think anyone can win the scoring title in STL and have 9 options to choose from, not exactly the most predictable of situations. Nashville is manageable.
September 01, 2010
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Goalies...

Sorry I did mess up the goalies... they're reversed. I did the article in 2 parts the players then the goalies, and had a brain cramp you guys are correct in the hits/misses.

September 01, 2010
Votes: +0

Andrew said:

capretto2002
Ehrhoff Don't know if it was your article last year or something else on this site, but the Ehrhoff review claimed that if he left SJ he would never be worth owning. As a result I dropped him. I feel like it is a poor excuse to claim that the trade is what made him valuable again, as SJ is not in any kinda scoring drought. Only slightly bitter since this site and the writers are still awesome the majority of the time.
August 31, 2010
Votes: +0

mike hess said:

SharkMeat
People you don't trust Jocular Hockey Manager...great list and title..but see comments...
Guys I don't trust:
Sedin's as super elite. Sorry, I think they have the talent just not the killer side.
Ehrhoff as 40+ ...He was behind some good guys in SJ...give him a focus PP and he is great
Rask with all the starts ...why not...Thomas is great backstop for rest
Datsyuk as 80+ I agree with this one
Franzen for 60 ..I think he will be there...bet a Fosters on that
Matt Carle ..yeah I agree here too
Martin for more than 40 ..yep I prefer Letang
Turco for big starts This is Howard 2...great team..show up take the win?
Plekanec ..not this year..contract is done..
All AK's haven't a clue on this one
John Carlson ...whoa I like this guy for next year
Eric Karlsson ..another next year guy
Tyler's in cities starting with B ...will have to wait and see
Stamkos for more than 80 ...they are building a good franchise I think you are right only because Vinnie comes on strong
Pitkanen ...haven't drafted for three years becasue of his injuries
Bryz or Miller for 100 point seasons ...what points are we counting...both do fine in my league
Steen as a 60 pointer ..yeah high risk, but St. Louis needs someone to step up...
Enstrom ....Who esle in Atlanta is going to score
Colorado as a playoff team Think about how many playoff teams there are..while not a shoe in should be in the early round..

Good points all but not absolutes by any stretch...Mike

August 31, 2010
Votes: +1

Todd Dmitruk said:

Deets
... i think that pengwin7 said it best about howard, he plays on and all around great defensive team that doesn't allow very many shots and will get him a lot of wins. in my mind he is one of my key acquisitions this off season as i traded anderson and a 4th round draft pick for howard and rinne. not that i wanted to let anderson go but i'm thinking i just picked up 2 potential 60plus starters with howard having the potential for 40plus wins if he keeps pace with how he played last year at half the price of anderson. i also think that setoguchi will have a bounce back year, maybe he won't reach the same production as his rookie year but playing with pavelski all season can't be a bad thing. other than those 2 i think your list is pretty bang on!
August 31, 2010
Votes: +0

toolshed181st said:

toolshed181st
Bobby Ryan Wouldn't Bobby Ryan's numbers have been better if Lupul was healthy? Ryan was put on the second line most of the season to spread out the offense, no? I'd like to think Carlyle would've put Ryan with Getzlaf & Perry if Lupul was present on the second line. I may have no clue what I'm talking about. smilies/smiley.gif
August 31, 2010
Votes: +0

Justin D said:

UAVMX
Goalies Man...my two keeper goalies are Anderson and Howard...

So I hope your totally wrong! Maybe I will try and trade anderson if he gets off to a good start, I find it hard for howard to take a dive....
August 31, 2010
Votes: +0

DuklaNation said:

DuklaNation
Anderson Calgary's offense still stinks. Edmonton & Columbus might be a little better offensively but not tha tmuch overall. Keep in mind Colorado, defensively, is pretty bad. They can only improve on that side.
August 31, 2010
Votes: +1

Jocular Hockey Manager said:

JHM
Good list Much agreement. A few of the players (JBo, Campbell) are great if you get them at the points level that they achieved last year. As a 30 point D-man JBo has great upside. I don't want to count on him for any more than 40 though. Campbell, as a 40 point or 45 point D-man, is safe. Again, one gets to wonder if there is more in the tank.

Guys I don't trust:
Sedin's as super elite.
Ehrhoff as 40+
Rask with all the starts
Datsyuk as 80+
Franzen for 60
Matt Carle
Martin for more than 40
Turco for big starts
Plekanec
All AK's
John Carlson
Eric Karlsson
Tyler's in cities starting with B
Stamkos for more than 80
Pitkanen
Bryz or Miller for 100 point seasons
Steen as a 60 pointer
Enstrom
Colorado as a playoff team
August 31, 2010
Votes: +1

mike hess said:

SharkMeat
comments Ryan...nice work. I complement you on recognizing your predispositons, as we all have them just don't usually recognize them. A few questions:
I have seen Stajan projected for the 3rd line because he does not do well against top line competion, any truth to it?
You have both of my potential goalie keepers on your list Howard and Halak..will need to keep one...from your writing sounds like the sophomore risk in Howard is the bigger concern, but clearly both have huge risks...thanks Mike
August 31, 2010
Votes: +0

Pengwin7 said:

Pengwin7
Great Topic! This is a great topic. It takes some good nads to predict guys who won't perform. It is much easier to pick guys who will and then reference them later.

Last year's list - brutal. smilies/cheesy.gif
Anybody that stayed away from Ryan, Keith & Eriksson missed some terrific value.

I think this year's list is very good.
I'll take two exceptions:

1. Halak is the real deal. Bank on it. The guy is good. Not top 5 good, but definitely top 15 good.
2. Howard is just playing in a system. It doesn't matter if he has big talent. DET not only typically allows the fewest SOG against... but those SOG are often very low-percentage shots. Chris Osgood has looked good there for a long time and he's never been a top-tier goalie. Howard will have the best fantasy year of all goalies - that's my prediction. Wish I had him.

The rest of the list is terrific.
August 31, 2010
Votes: +0

Randall said:

The Hockey Hitman
good list..however. You have (traded) next to Ehrhoff but he was traded(stupidly) to VAN before September, on August 28 to be exact, a couple weeks or so before training camp. But is that to imply your prediction relied on him sticking with SJ? Just curious.

Also definitely have to agree w/ poster above me, that has to be a slight error no way Rinne could be a "hit." He was definitely a valuable fantasy asset in many leagues last season.

And just in case you're right about Howard, I went ahead and snatched up Osgood as a FA in my 10 team, h2h dynasty keeper league just in case he somehow produces a solid season for Detroit. Its worth a gamble. Hope you're right!
August 31, 2010 | url
Votes: +0

sentium said:

Dakkster
... Solid list, Ryan. I think the guys that could end up being misses for you are Campbell, Howard and Halak. Then again, goalies are always tricky to estimate. As for the original list, I have a feeling you mixed up Giggy and Hiller as hit/miss.

I'd add Nashville's forward group because they're in a similar situation as St Louis.
August 31, 2010
Votes: +0

Mike said:

slopoke
... Thanks for the perspective. Good article. Just wondering if you've mixed up your "hit/miss" on the Nashville and Anaheim goaltenders. Seems to me that Rinne would be a "miss" and Ellis the "hit". Same for the two in Anaheim.
August 31, 2010
Votes: +0
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