| Top 10 Keeper League Goaltenders | Tweet |
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| Written by Jeff Angus | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Friday, 13 August 2010 11:17 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 I have a few general rules when it comes to building a team in a fantasy hockey keeper league. One of the more important ones is to not plan beyond a two or three year window. You are not building a real NHL club, and too often fantasy hockey poolies place an emphasis on youth and prospects over proven veterans with gas still left in the tank. So using my general rule, take a look at your team(s). Can you realistically say you will have a shot at winning the league at some point within the next two or three seasons? If not, time to scrap the rebuild and start adding proven NHL talent.
Keeping my rule in mind, I have compiled a list of the top 10 keeper league goalies to own (assuming standard keeper league rules and scoring categories). Using the two or three season scope, I had to balance proven production with young players on the verge of breaking out. I hope you enjoy!
For comparisons sake, check out the list put together by our goaltender expert Justin Goldman (although his list has a one-year focus). The goaltending position is far and away the toughest to predict in terms of development, which is why my list has more veterans than any of my other previous lists. It is too risky to rely on a young goalie compared to a young forward or defenseman. Additionally, many goalies can play at an elite level well into their late 30’s and early 40’s, unlike most forwards and defensemen. How the list works – since it is “in order,” my point is that I wouldn’t trade the second ranked goalie for the third ranked goalie in a standard, non-salary cap keeper league pool.
I also included where each of my picks ranks on Dobber’s Top 100 Goalies list. Don’t forget that his list accounts for playoff wins and trade carry-overs. Read his full criteria by clicking the link above.
Top 10 Keeper League Left Wingers Top 10 Keeper League Right Wingers Top 10 Keeper League Defensemen Top 10 Combo Players (Points + PIM)
1. Roberto Luongo
Age: 31 Contract: $5.33 million per season, signed through 2021-22* DobberHockey Keeper Ranking: 1
The Canucks have vastly improved their defensive group since the 2009-10 season ended, adding Keith Ballard and Dan Hamhuis this summer. Both players can log minutes in all situations. Most importantly, however, both are incredibly durable. Vancouver’s blue line seems to get ravaged by injuries each and every season, and Luongo is usually the player who seems to get hit the most stats-wise. Why does he deserve the top spot after a mediocre 2009-10 season? I’ll break it down in point form:
You can call be a homer and/or biased if you want, but if you give me Luongo above any other NHL goalie if I want to win my league at some point over the next three seasons, I’ll be a happy camper.
One year upside: 45 wins, 10 shutouts Three year upside: 48 wins, 10 shutouts
*Pending league approval, even though the league already approved the contract last season…. (Figure that one out!)
2. Henrik Lundqvist
Age: 28 Contract: $6.8 million per season, signed through 2013-14 DobberHockey Keeper Ranking: 2
Lundqvist’s goals-against-average jumped from 2.23 in 2008-09 to 2.43 last season. The Rangers still struggled to score on a consistent basis, even with the acquisition of Marian Gaborik. Lundqvist did all he could to get them into the playoffs, but their end-of-season shootout loss to the Flyers summed up the season pretty well.
Glen Sather finally went out and got a capable back-up goalie for Lundqvist, who has played too many games over the past few years. Martin Biron is a massive upgrade over the likes of Steve Valiquette and Chad Johnson. He’ll play 15-18 games at most, but he will give the team more confidence to win in games where King Henrik operates the bench door instead of the space between the pipes.
One year upside: 40 wins, 10 shutouts Three year upside: 45 wins, 12 shutouts
3. Ryan Miller
Age: 30 Contract: $6.25 million per season, signed through 2013-14 DobberHockey Keeper Ranking: 5
Miller was the league’s most valuable player in the eyes of many people last season (especially those living in Buffalo). He led the Sabres to a Northeast Division title, and he almost led the American team to a Gold Medal at the 2010 Olympics. Like the two goalies above him, he is extremely durable, consistent, and of course, a phenomenal goalie. Look for Miller to take a step back this season, as the Sabres have downgraded on defence.
Gone are Toni Lydman and Henrik Tallinder. Tallinder was a steady influence on his defensive partner Tyler Myers. Both Lydman and Tallinder are consistent top-four defensemen. To replace them, Buffalo has signed Jordan Leopold and Shaone Morrisonn, both of which represent downgrades (and in Morrisonn’s case, a significant one).
One year upside: 40 wins, seven shutouts Three year upside: 45 wins, eight shutouts
4. Tuukka Rask
Age: 23 Contract: $1.25 million per season, signed through 2011-12 DobberHockey Keeper Ranking: 7
It looks like the Bruins will be unable to trade Tim Thomas (at least for now), so don’t expect Rask to be starting 60+ games just yet. He is already one of the most technically proficient goaltenders in the league, and he plays behind a very strong defensive group in Boston. He has no weaknesses and he is very mentally tough.
Don’t worry about a sophomore slump with Rask. He isn’t Steve Mason or Andrew Raycroft. Justin Goldman absolutely loves Rask, and I defer to him most of the time with regards to goaltender evaluations, projections, and general analysis.
One year upside: 35 wins, nine shutouts Three year upside: 45 wins, 11 shutouts
5. Jaroslav Halak
Age: 25 Contract: $3.75 million per season, signed through 2013-14 DobberHockey Keeper Ranking: 4
Halak’s save percentage each season since he turned pro is unbelievable: 932 (ECHL), .926 (AHL), .932 (AHL), .906 (NHL), .929 (AHL), .934 (NHL), .915 (NHL), and .924 (NHL). Some are worried that Halak’s performance this past spring was simply a hot streak. However, he has proven doubters wrong every step of the way during his development, and that won’t be changing any time soon. He has been praised for his work ethic, attention to detail, and willingness to put the work in to improve. Those three things are essential to becoming (and remaining) an elite goaltender. Many skilled goalies have hot streaks but they are unable to maintain the quality of play because they don’t put the work in.
Halak has never been handed anything. He was a (very) late round draft pick, and had to earn his ice time in the QMJHL, ECHL, AHL, and NHL. He’s still only 25, and the Blues are a team with a lot of potential for the future. They possess a wealth of talent both up front and on defence, and now in goal as well. Look for Halak to cement his place as one of the game’s best goalies with the Blues in 2010-11 and beyond.
One year upside: 40 wins, eight shutouts Three year upside: 45 wins, 10 shutouts
6. Tomas Vokoun
Age: 34 Contract: $5.7 million per season, signed through 2010-11 DobberHockey Keeper Ranking: 25
The Panthers will struggle in 2010-11. Because of that, Vokoun probably won’t get as many wins or have the kind of numbers that one would hope from my sixth ranked goalie. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Vokoun doesn’t last the year in Florida. The Panthers are clearly rebuilding, and star prospect Jacob Markstrom is the goalie of the not-so-distant future. Vokoun is a UFA next summer and the odds that he re-signs in Florida are slim at best.
We saw this summer that the goalie market was very unforgiving to veterans like Evgeni Nabokov and Marty Turco. However, Vokoun is a significantly better goalie than both Turco and Nabokov, and there will be quite a few teams who will need a starting goalie next summer. Look around the league at how many teams have goalies signed to one-year contracts, or goalies who aren’t starter material in the starting position (Michael Leighton, anyone?). Vokoun is one of the best goalies in the league, and probably the best second-half goalie in the game today. Teams will be lining up to acquire him for the stretch run next spring (Dwayne Roloson lead the Oilers to the Cup Final in 2006 after being acquired at the deadline). Washington, Philadelphia, San Jose, and Chicago are all teams who will have interest in Vokoun next deadline as a rental.
Over the past five seasons, his lowest save percentage is .919. He’s only broken the 30-win plateau twice in that time (both with Nashville). He has never really played for a contender, and if/when he gets the opportunity, look out. When Vokoun is on his game, he is close to unbeatable.
One year upside: 35 wins, eight shutouts Three year upside: 42 wins, nine shutouts
7. Martin Brodeur
Age: 38 Contract: $5.2 million per season, signed through 2011-12 DobberHockey Keeper Ranking: 14
The happiest man after seeing Anton Volchenkov’s massive six-year contract with the Devils had to be Brodeur (aside from Volchenkov, of course). New Jersey upgraded their defensive group in a big way by adding Volchenkov. They did lose Paul Martin, who was inarguably the steadiest defenseman over the past few seasons in the Swamp. However, they also missed Martin most of last season due to injury, and were able to pick up most of the slack with what they had on the roster.
Henrik Tallinder is the other defensemen they added. He is mobile, sound positionally, and a good veteran presence. With a few rookies hoping to crack the roster (most notably Matt Corrente and Tyler Eckford), Tallinder is the perfect partner for whichever one makes the team. The Devils also signed a capable backup goalie in Johan Hedberg. Brodeur still runs the show in New Jersey, so don’t expect him to start many less games unless he requests it (something I can’t see happening).
One year upside: 45 wins, 10 shutouts Three year upside: 45 wins, 10 shutouts
8. Miikka Kiprusoff
Age: 34 Contract: $5.8 million per season, signed through 2013-14 DobberHockey Keeper Ranking: 19
Kiprusoff had forgettable 2007-08 and 2008-09 seasons from a statistical standpoint (a 2.69 GAA with a .906 save percentage, and a 2.84 GAA with a 903 save percentage, respectively). However, he got his game back on track last season, posting an impressive .920 save percentage with a 2.31 GAA. He has compiled an incredible 201 wins over the past five seasons with the Flames. Like Vokoun, he didn’t emerge as a starting goalie until later in his career, so don’t expect his game to tail off any time soon.
Calgary will be a better team this season. In 2009-10, almost all of their core players struggled, and the odds of that repeating itself is not great. Their long-term outlook for the Flames isn’t great, but over the next three years they should be a middle-of-the-pack team at the worst. Kiprusoff will play a lot, and I’m not ready to write him off as one of the best goalies in the world.
One year upside: 35 wins, six shutouts Three year upside: 45 wins, eight shutouts
9. Ilya Bryzgalov
Age: 30 Contract: $4.25 million per season, signed through 2010-11 DobberHockey Keeper Ranking: 6
Bryzgalov was the best goaltender in the Western Conference last season. He brought consistency to the Coyotes, and really thrived behind Dave Tippett’s defensive system. He has only one year left on his contract, but with the uncertainty of the free agent goalie market, look for him to sign an extension to stick around with Phoenix.
Bryzgalov isn’t the quickest goalie, but he is an imposing figure in the net and he plays very sound positional hockey. That’s about as far as my goalie analysis will go; I leave the real work up to Mr. Goldman! Phoenix has a lot of young talent, especially on the back end. If Bryzgalov does re-sign, expect him to play a lot, and to put up very good numbers across the board.
One year upside: 42 wins, eight shutouts Three year upside: 46 wins, eight shutouts
10. Carey Price
Age: 22 (23 on August 16th) Contract: RFA DobberHockey Keeper Ranking: 12
Price hasn’t been able to regain the form that he showed in 2007-08 with the Canadiens (24 wins, .920 save percentage). He has struggled off the ice dealing with the pressures of playing in Montreal, and on the ice he hadn’t been able to out duel Halak for the starting position. With Halak now in St. Louis, Price has a stranglehold on the starting position (provided he signs a contract sometime before the season begins).
There are goalies below Price on this list who are more proven. However, I don’t believe there are any goalies below who have Price’s upside over the next three seasons.
One year upside: 35 wins, seven shutouts Three year upside: 43 wins, eight shutouts
Honorable Mentions (in no order):
This isn't a full list, as there are a few other goalies who could be considered to be in the mix.
Marc-Andre Fleury – Mr. Inconsistency’s numbers will be improved with Pittsburgh’s two defensive acquisitions, but he doesn’t get enough shutouts or have the peripheral stats to make owning him worthwhile
Craig Anderson – needs to prove last season wasn’t a fluke. If he can, he’ll find a way onto the list
Semyon Varlamov – in a great situation with the Caps, but facing some stingy competition from…
Michal Neuvirth – the other half of Washington’s two-headed goaltending monster. I favour Neuvirth personally, but it’s tough to pick one
Pekka Rinne – great goalie, now firmly entrenched as the number one in Nashville. Can the Predators score enough for him to win games?
Jonathan Bernier – check back in a couple of years, he’ll find a way into the top 10
Jacob Markstrom – best goaltending prospect in the world
Cam Ward – young workhorse on a team that isn’t as bad as many think
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Comments (24)
angus
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... Thanks for the post, Mabus! Steve Mason, outside of a six week stretch in November/December 2008, has not been a good goalie at the NHL level. Great talent, but he was criticized a bit for a poor work ethic. I have said many times that young goalies are tough to rely on because of the volatility of the position, and Mason is a great example of it. Some goalies (Rask, in my opinion), will rise above it. But the Tim Thomas issue is definitely a bit concerning. |
steve-o
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Nice List I would like to see something similar to the upsides you've listed in your ranking in Dobber's Fantasy Guide. I emailed Dobber about it about a month ago, but it likely got lost in the mayhem that I imagine occurs during the writing period of the Guide  Overall, Good List. This is why we come to this site: to get oppinions. I personally would've put Ward in the top 10 over Kipper or maybe Price. As people have said, proven talent over potention. That being said, I would also drop Rask down a few places. Remember this time last year when every fantasy GM was blowing their load (for lack of a better term) over another Rookie goalie that had exceeded expectations? What was his name again? Do people really expect Rask to do that much better next season than Mason did with NO competition last year? Sure, Hitchcock played a part in his rookie numbers, but this was a guy that was on most people's top 5 keeper goalie lists last year, and isn't even an honourable mention on here! |
Mabus
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... I didn't think there was a standard keeper league setting, so thanks for clarifying your assumptions. I can't say I'm a fan of those categories - shutouts falls into the game winning goal and PIM category for me as stats I'm not a fan of. Based on those settings though, your list is solid. I'd like to know if you forgot about Howard or if you just don't like him. I'll take up the challenge though and post a list that's similar to yours with justification for a couple of tweaks. For my analysis, I'll assume we are talking about a 12 team league with 2 goalies per team. I've calculated values by assuming all categories are weighted equally and created standard scores (subtract the average player's stats from each player's stats and divide by the standard deviation). Based on last year's stats, that gives us Brodeur, Bryzgalov, Miller, Rask, Howard, Nabokov, Kiprusoff, Lundqvist, Anderson, Niemi, Halak, Vokoun, Rinne, Luongo, Quick as the top 15 so we can start from a reference point. I think with goalies, organizing people into tiers is more valuable than a strict list, but given the challenge to provide a list, I'll do it. I'm not in a league with these type of settings, so this ranking isn't well researched, but here it goes (and the reasons below). Miller, Rask, Luongo, Lundqvist, Halak, Bryzgalov, Vokoun, Brodeur, Howard, Kiprusoff. I would bump Rask up the list to #2 because of his age, the fact he already has elite skill, the fact he's playing in front of Chara and a team that looks like it will be solid for quite a few years plus the fact that he managed to be the 4th best goalie last year in only 45 starts. To be honest, I wouldn't see a problem with choosing him first. I move Miller above Lundqvist/Luongo because he was better last year and I expect Buffalo to improve - he's also at the age where goalies are in their prime. For the same reason I bump up Bryzgalov. After the top 6, there is a dropoff in talent, and I'm probably as happy with the honorable mentions as I am with #7, so I probably wait. Brodeur will probably win you this year if you take him 8th, but I'm not sure if he has more than 1 or 2 years left in him. Kipper's starts will be limited, so his peripherals will be as good or better than last year, but his wins and shutouts won't be at the elite level anymore. Howard is a classic risk/reward guy. Great team, great stats, young age but not a long track record. In addition to your bubble guys, I'd add Anderson (team will be improved, but I'm not convinced he has elite skill) and possibly Quick (although Bernier lurking in the wings scares me). I'm sure you can see all of my anti-Price posts from last off-season and throughout the year, and my opinion of him hasn't changed. I don't like his attitude or work ethic. You can get by on natural talent in juniors, but not in the NHL, so he's on my avoid at all costs list. If he changes his work ethic, the sky is the limit, so I'll keep my eyes on him though. Mabus |
angus
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... I appreciate the feedback and critiquing. The point of these lists is to open the floor up. I just didn't really think odd was the appropriate word. What would your top 10 list look like? MAF - I simply don't think he's a top 10 goalie. Incredibly inconsistent. Wins games but doesn't do much else (great in real life, not in fantasy hockey). If Price sucks it up over the next few years, I'll eat crow. As will Dobber. I'm not trying to write these lists based on the consensus top 10 goalies. This is MY top 10 goalies. If I own Rinne, Hiller, Markstrom, Bernier, etc, I'd love any one of them for Price in a second. The only goalie I really struggled with on this list was Kipper, but I still think he is too elite to leave off. |
angus
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... I don't understand the point you are trying to make. What is the "usual" top list of goalies? I don't see any standard set of 10 out there. My criteria is defined. Standard keeper league categories. Wins, shutouts, save percentage, GAA. I didn't include projections for those other two stats, because I don't feel it is really possible to accurately predict them. |
Mabus
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Odd list According to Mirriam-Webster: odd - differing markedly from the usual or ordinary or accepted : peculiar This is the first time this year I've seen a top ten list with Price on it. Rarely do you see a top 10 list with Fleury's name absent. I would also guess that you would see Ward and Rinne's names more often than Price's name. Regardless, it's hard to see how this list fits the terms typical, ordinary or accepted. For future lists, I don't think terms like "standard categories" are helpful. It would probably be helpful to define your criteria more clearly - it only takes one sentence, and this is the same comment you see in the forums every day - please clearly define your league settings. If wins/shutouts are the standard categories, Fleury's comments don't make sense to me. If peripherals are standard, it would be great to include them in the upside discussion. Provide your categories and it might be possible to provide a more analytical critique/validation. Mabus Mabus |
angus
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... How is this an "odd" list? It's my opinion! I think Calgary will be better than last year. Still not great, but better. The odds that all of their top players struggle at the same time are very low. Price really is a polarizing goalie. I have seen a lot of him (especially when he played in the WHL). He has that "star" quality. I still favour Halak, but disregarding that issue I'd take Price (quite easily) over the honourable mentions. Hiller - solid goalie. As I said, not a comprehensive list. Thanks for the feedback! I don't mind disagreements because lists are so subjective. I just wanted to give people a glimpse into how I rank goalies. As I have said before, if you can back your opinion up with some fact, all the power to you. |
Mabus
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... Odd list - not sure I agree with the rankings, but the talent level from 5th to 12th is probably as narrow as it's ever been. I'd never take Lundqvist or Luongo over Miller. I'm a flames fan, but Kipper's almost done as an elite goalie. The flames will be mediocre at best again this year, but Kipper's starts will drop. In a keeper league he shouldn't be the 8th goalie drafted. The name that surprises me most on the list though is Price. I can't imagine picking him ahead of at least 3 of the honorable mentions. Even though those would be my major changes, I just don't think you can create a goalie list this year without considerable disagreement about the order. That sets the grounds for someone getting a great goalie later than usual. Mabus |
Dobber
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Rinne vs. Price If you owned Price, would you really trade him straight up for Rinne? Come on. Rinne is great for the year ahead. But you never know one year to the next what NSH is doing in net. But there's gotta be a reason why the experts drool over Price. Sometimes faith in that fails, but usually the faith is well-placed. FYI my keeper league list includes playoff value, so that is the key reason why Fleury is higher on my list, lower on Angus'. |
Craigington
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Great Stuff Awesome rankings, I like how you value goalies based on their stats and skills/talent instead of how good their situation is. A player like MAF gives you wins, but thats about it. And if for whatever reason he gets traded, then he wont even be able to get you wins. A talented guy like Vokoun will give you awesome GAA/SV% whoever he plays for. Talent overrides situation over the long haul every time. |
Ryan Ma
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... RE: Vokoun He might be in FLA now, but I will guarantee that he won't be there post-deadline this season. Vokoun is a solid under-rated goalie. Career 2.56 GAA and .916 sv% numbers on teams that have ranked 27th, 15th, 26th, 21st, 20th, 10th, 17th, 26th, 24th, 29th, 30th, and 30th in terms of team defense throughout the years. If he can get onto a top-10 defensive team his numbers would be scary. I think Angus justified his comments very well and provided plenty of reasons... Only thing I would be wary of is the KHL threat, with so many teams struggling with the cap and the availability of cheap goalies he might price himself out of the NHL much like Nabby... |
Adrian Keogh
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Following my initial valid response This article has no basis in reality! A Florida Panther goalie at 6? Brain damage? |
Vincent
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... I would never draft Rask #4 in a keeper league!! Tim Thomas has three years left to his contract! You mention that Anderson needs to prove last season wasn’t a fluke, well, Rask has to prove the same thing! Justin and Jeff say he has "no weaknesses and he is very mentally tough"... Tim Thomas won the Vezina two years ago and Steve Mason won the Calder trophy with 10 SHO. That's pretty much "no weaknesses" for me, but we saw that they didn't deliver the next year. You can't be super confident in doing a fantastic 3 years projections for Rask based on his 45 games of last year. There is 50% chance it happens. |
steve
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Great Article! Great article Angus. I may have put Rinne at number 10 instead of Price, but that would be more so due to Nashville's system, coach, and tendency to draft stud d-prospects in the early rounds. -cheers |
angus
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... Claudio: Pekka Rinne – great goalie, now firmly entrenched as the number one in Nashville. Can the Predators score enough for him to win games? Right in the article! |
Maximus
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Crappy Price I don't disagree with the fact that Price has the technical skills to be a very good goalie but HE HASN'T DONE ANYTHING to make him a top 10 goalie. he lost his job to an 'inferior' goalie last year and had NOTHING to do with the heroic run of the Habs this off-season. lots of players have the tools but don't pan out especially lots of high draft picks. so what's to say that Price isn't just another talent that doesn't figure out the NHL? the evidence points more to this fact and not that he is a top 10 goalie in the league. i love this site and all of the hardwork everyone puts into it but the constant blowing of Carey Price is as tiresome as Kaberle trade rumours or Forsberg's foot. i mean, even reading the description you write about him Angus shows that he should be an honorable mention. it's all negative except for "I don’t believe there are any goalies below who have Price’s upside over the next three seasons." KEY WORD: UPSIDE Much like Randall in the comments, Rinne gets no love here? he's done more in the NHL than Price. he plays on an offense starved team yet he leads them to the playoffs to no fanfare. i personally would put all of the goalies in the honourable mentions over Price in the top 10, with the exception of the 2 headed Caps monster (since there's only 1 spot). for now and for the long-term. I have 1 edit for this article as well: Martin Brodeur - THREE YEAR UPSIDE: RETIRED. |
Justin Goldman
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... Great article Angus!! All of your points are extremely solid. I am personally not so high on Luongo but the improved defense is a legit reason to be really high on him, especially for keeper leagues. Love seeing Rask in there, glad you see his potential as being very high over the next 2-3 years as he's only going to get better. Loved Carey Price at #10 as well - bold for sure, but very accurate that few goalies have his kind of skill upside. All your honorable mentions are dead on as well ... especially Fleury and Rinne and Ward. Good stuff and Guild approved haha!!! |
Claudio
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Rinne Very surprised he's not even mentioned. If this were Dobber's list, Rinne would probably be #3 or #4. Good list though. |
Randall
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thanks for the list! How does Rinne not make the top 10? And Carey Price does? I like the top 4 thats exactly how I would have it. |
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