|An Expert's Audit - March Edition||Tweet|
|Written by Ian Fergusson|
|Tuesday, 16 March 2010 23:08|
Welcome once again to “An Expert’s Audit”. This audit will be posted here as well as on my fantasy hockey blog at www.fantasyhockey.hockeyanalysis.com. With the start of the baseball season this’ll be my last audit for a couple months as I concentrate on baseball audits for Dobberbaseball during the hockey offseason.
Jonny Bast and I actually had some serious problems chatting about his team this month and despite that he got some good work done. The blame for not getting more accomplished has to be laid right on my doorstep and I suppose having a two-week Olympic break didn’t help since we didn’t discuss his team very much at all during that entire time period. Anyway, if Jonny feels a disservice with the process then he has my sincerest apologies.
Jonny plays in 16 dynasty CBS roto league with the following categories: G, A, PIM, STPTs (PPP + SHP), W and GAA. I like STPT as a cat, it favours stars who play in every situation and it evens the playing field by making checking types more valuable in a deep league like this. Jonny actually sat 1 point behind the leader when I came on the scene and in that situation you just don’t want to make suggestions that hurt his chances at a championship since he’s already so close to the top of the mountain as it is. Over the course of the month he jumped to the top of the heap and his challenge from here on out is to stay there.
Let’s take a look at Streit, no chaser.
C Ryan Getzlaf ANA – well I was pegging him for about 1.5 pt/game this season and he’s only provided 1 pt/game but he also was significant for a gold medal this season so the shortfall is easily forgiven. There’s a reason he was taken often in the top 5 of drafts, he’s got mad skillz.
C Steven Stamkos TB – everybody knew he was going to be good but I certainly didn’t peg him to be THIS good THIS soon. Seriously, you didn’t peg him for 50 goals this season. Oh you did not, quit lying.
C Travis Zajac NJ – the Kovalchuk trade has launched Z into pt/game territory as the offense has spread more and created more ice for him and whichever star he gets to line up with. I completely pegged him wrong a couple years back by saying that I figured he’d only be Matthew Lombardi good but I’m going to revise that assessment and say he has Alfredsson upside.
LW Scott Hartnell PHI – best hair in hockey right now, am I right? In PIM leagues I love to roster this guy because he seems to get goals in bunches and he always seems to end up with a decent amount of PIMs. I love that mix.
LW Jussi Jokinen CAR – this is the guy you should be shopping pretty hard in your league because there’s no way that he duplicates this sort of production next year or any year down the road. He’s been a gold mine for you this year though, just smile and enjoy the ride.
RW Bobby Ryan ANA –cement this guy into your lineup for the next decade. I expect a handful of 50 goal seasons over that period. Resist practically all offers that come your way for trading him.
RW Alexei Kovalev OTT – I don’t care what people say, this guy is simply an enigma. Some try to pump him up as an elite fantasy option but I just don’t see it anymore. If the guy WANTS to play he can dominate a game and there is no doubt that he has the skills to do it but … he doesn’t seem to want it anymore. I also don’t think he’s a good fit in Ottawa and I have no doubt that he’ll try to sign in Montreal again as soon as he can.
F Ryan Malone TB – I wasn’t expecting quite this much offense but I was hoping for more PIMs. The tradeoff is nice because it benefits most fantasy players who roster him.
F Michal Frolik FLA – he’ll finish with goals in the 20’s somewhere but the upside is 30+ perhaps as soon as next year. I love this guy as a dynasty option but I suggest patience, the time will come that he’s a 2nd tier offensive guy.
D Tobias Enstrom ATL – that Thrasher’s D is going to be the best in the league eventually if they all stay together, just give them 5 years or so. Right now it looks like Enstrom might be the star of the group although Bogo looks like he could give it a run too.
D Mark Streit NYI – he’s the Isles best player right now. Yeah, I like JT and OH-poso too and DiP’s contract is a huge millstone that they’ll regret for a decade but right now the best Isle is Streit (no chaser).
D Ryan Suter NAS – I projected him for points in the 40’s this season and it looks as though he’ll fall just short of that, and he doesn’t get enough goals for my taste but overall he’s a decent option. I really like that Preds D to burst out over the next couple years and Suit will have his share of the credit when it happens.
D Andy Greene NJ – I suspect that Paul Martin is going to steal some thunder from Greene’s job performance again soon but in many ways Greene’s been a godsend for the Devils this season. If you can get 30 pts out of a D then you’ve got yourself a decent starting option. He’s tripled any previous stat production this season so I wouldn’t bet on him being able to do this ever again.
G Ilya Bryzgalov PHX – any goalie you can get 30 W’s out of is an excellent option and Cool Breeze has a shot at 40 W’s this season. With how badly things went for the Yotes last summer things have been amazing for them this season … for BOTH their fans.
G Carey Price MON – things are pretty much a crapshoot for the goalies in Montreal still and I personally say that the guy that needs to be traded out of town is Price. I think that Canadians get really enamored with the Canadian kid and they neglect that Halak is just more polished than Price is. Hey, its how I feel. Now do I care about the Habs goalie situation? Hell no, I’m a Leafs fan.
G Cam Ward CAR –this is a lost season for him but he’s still among the best tenders in the league. Don’t forget that, it’ll be important come next season.
BN Jason Pominville BUF – I’d love to say that Pominville is a town where 30 goal guys move to and become 20 goal scorers but Pom was never really a viable 30 goal guy. He’ll get his 20-something goals this season and that’s pretty much what was expected of him.
BN Andrew Cogliano EDM – I figure he could turn into Daymond Langkow or Travis Zajac depending on his opportunities. You should hope that it isn’t Langkow.
BN Darren Helm DET – I don’t see him as being anything more than a checking center but at the same time, he’s really good at that. His faceoff % has improved this year, he blocks shots, he kills penalties … and you don’t track most of that stuff in your league. I’m just saying that he’s a better hockey player than he is a fantasy hockey player in your league.
BN Bryan Little ATL – ever since the Kovalchuk trade Little’s PPTOI has jumped up into the neighbourhood of 4 minutes a game and we already know he has a track history for goals when he gets the chance. I like his chances at goals from here on out for that team as they spread their offense around a lot more.
BN Doug Weight NYI – he scored his 1st goal of the season in February this year and he sits with that massive one goal total as I write this. He is going to have shoulder surgery but still, he’s been playing and doing nothing with the half season of stats he’s put up. He was always pass happy but this is going way too far, just shoot the puck once in a while old man. He only has value because your league is insanely deep and it’s not anything close to a sure thing that he’ll be able to return from surgery this offseason.
BN Jason Blake ANA – his traditional fantasy value is locked up in the fact that he shoots the puck more than the norm … that hasn’t been the case this season and you don’t track SOG’s anyway. A lot was expected of him this year and I can confidently say that he has completely underwhelmed.
BN Slava Kozlov ATL – all the stats that he got last year look to have gone to Maxim Afinogenov this season. I have little interest in rostering either guy this season but it does seem like perhaps Slava and Max have switched paths when it comes to evaluating ongoing value from season to season.
BN Sergei Samsonov CAR – when I’ve seen his name on the scoresheet this year I’ve thought several times “isn’t he retired?” Yeah, that’s harsh, especially when I consider that he’s still got a shot at 20 goals this season.
BN Evgeny Artyukhin ATL – I was expecting 150 PIMs out of him this season and I would’ve been thrilled with 20 points … and he’s not going come anywhere near those projections this season. That’s just a waste of a good PIMy option.
BN Derek Dorsett CBS – another troglodyte, except this one has actually been doing his job when he’s been on the ice. There’s good PIMs here although the points will never be where you need them to be in order to do anything more than spot-start him.
BN Joel Ward NAS – he should finish with points in the 30’s somewhere this season and with an option to continue that growth in coming seasons. I figure he’s got 50-60 pts in him one day which will do nicely for a bottom of the roster guy in a league this size.
BN Brandon Dubinsky NYR – every trade rumour involving the Rangers has Doobie linked to it. There’s reason for that, the kid’s got decent skills and can do a lot when teamed up with some talent. He kind of reminds me of Tomas Plekanec’s development.
BN Paul Bissonnette PHX – more PIMs, and nothing else.
BN Jonathan Ericsson DET – there are lots of growing pains here but there were also plenty of growing pains while all the other D ahead of him on the Wings pecking order grew into their jobs. I see the kid as a nice complement to Kronwall as they anchor that line together over the next decade.
BN Alex Goligoski PIT – wow man, your D is DEEP. He’ll be over the next half decade what Gonchar has been to the Pens over the last half decade. Pardon the difficult sentence structuring.
BN Jack Hillen NYI – dare I say it but I think Hillen can be as valuable to the Isles as another American D is to the Wings; Brian Rafalski. Yes I realize that’s a huge jump for Hillen but this is only his 3rd season in the league and it’ll be his first shot at contributing full time.
BN Kyle Quincey COL – Q has been pretty cold since Christmas but he still has really good value, particularly if you’re not relying on him to be your main guy, and you’re not. He really only got his first shot at fame last season and he parlayed that into a nice contract in Denver. In general he continues to impress.
BN Robin Regehr CAL – he has a lot more NHL value than he has fantasy value. He’s a shutdown guy that you really don’t need for fantasy, particularly if you don’t count +/-.
BN Justin Peters CAR – Ward has had a rough year and you were fortunate to be able to roster his replacement. He’ll have value for the remainder of this year and this may actually mean the difference between winning and losing the whole shooting match this year.
That my friends, is one freaking DEEEEEEEEP 16 team league. 35 man rosters, 560 players on somebody’s team. It took way too long just to list the team itself before I had to breakdown the strengths and weaknesses. Excuse me while I sit down for a bit and take a breather.
Ok, well I LOVE your C’s across the board, your D is phenomenal and you have 3 starting goaltenders in a 14 team league where you have 3 starting slots. My first reaction was that this team was obviously among the best in the league already (and the standings page easily bore out that hypothesis). If you broke down your standings the most movement can be made in the skater categories and that’s what I figured you should target. If you could find some more goals, or STPT then that’d be ideal but failing that there were a handful of points that could be found in PIMs alone.
Let’s see what we could do.
Waiver Wire Options
Just the fact that there’s anyone with an NHL job on your waiver wire is a huge victory in a league this size. The fact that these guys were there briefly is testament to the fact that your league is active too.
Ivan Vishnevskiy – with his recent trade to Atlanta he’ll get more exposure since there’s a youth movement going on with the Thrash. I would’ve thought he’d get a chance in Dallas since there only seemed to be Robidas and Niskanen with the upside to do more offensively than he could but it never happened. You swapped out Regehr for him.
Tim Gleason – I was very surprised to see him on the wire actually, he’s a quality D that contributes in multiple of your categories. I suggested you move on him and he got snapped up by someone else in your league. I’ve got to think he’d be a better option on D than Bissonnette would be.
Dustin Boyd – I had him on my Expert’s Team to start this season … but he had a really slow start. I was pegging him for getting close to 20 goals this season and that’s definitely not happening. The good news is that there’s more opportunity in Nashville for him than would’ve been for him in Calgary and if that translates into stats then adding him can be a smart move.
Traded Kyle Quincey and Joel Ward for Lubomir Visnovsky – the price was steep but Loob is in great position for better stats this season including some significant STPT’s from here on out. If you secure a championship then this move is a stroke of brilliance.
Traded Michal Frolik for Martin Havlat and Teddy Purcell – ok, to be honest I’m not at all nuts about this deal. I think Havlat is a little girl who kicks, Purcell has never lived up to the promise that has been thrown his way and Frolik is way too high a price for these guys. Now having said that, you’re looking for some short term goals that’ll put you over the top toward a championship and Havlat has the skills to do just that. I didn’t like the deal but I get why it is that you made the deal. If this secures a championship for you then it’s worth the long term loss that you take in it.
I think Jonny made some pretty adept moves this month. He took some chances but I get why he took the chances that he took. Most of the progress made was through a couple deals and they were done with purpose. Visnovsky is going to really affect your STPT totals from here on out as he gets to help QB the PP in Anaheim which is significantly different than helping the PP in Edmonton. While Havlat will hopefully contribute the goals you want for your squad. Yeah, it’s a chance you’re taking but it’s a decent chance that has a decent shot at succeeding. Just look at the fact that you jumped into the lead and realize that you’re on your way my friend. Well done.
Well that’s a wrap for me this season. I’ll be back right around draft time sometime to make the remainder of my summer insanely busy. It might be fun to review a team as they hold a prospect draft during the summer so if that’s you then consider firing off an email to Dobber about it.
I also want to thank Dobber for the chance to write for the best fantasy hockey site on the planet. I’m off to try and help Dobberbaseball become the best fantasy baseball site on the planet for awhile. Come check us out over there, there’s plenty of fantasy advice to go around.
|Last Updated on Thursday, 18 March 2010 08:20|