Kariya

 

Still mostly quiet on the trade front, as we enter into the final quarter of the fantasy season. Following along the same lines as the last three weeks, we’ll conclude the series this week by analyzing the potential trade candidates of the Sharks, Blues and Canucks.

 

Maaasquito Buzzings…


Players in the last seven days with the highest production in each category who are less than 50% owned in Yahoo leagues.

Goals

Assists

+/-

PPP

SOG

Tootoo (3)

Stewart (4)

Lang (5)

Brunette (3)

Kariya (21)

Lombardi (3)

Horcoff (3)

Clark (5)

Koivu (2)

Vrbata (16)

Moreau (2)

Brassard (3)

Johnson (4)

Arnott (2)

Steen (16)

Moller (2)

Whitney (3)

Lombardi (4)

Wilson (2)

Stewart (16)

Stewart (2)

Vermette (3)

Lebda (4)

Erat (2)

O’Sullivan (16)

 

Maaaasquito Bite of the Week: Paul Kariya

It’s definitely interesting to see a 35-year old make the list as a waiver wire pick up of the week, but the shocking thing is that he’s only currently 21 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues. Granted his 29 points in 56 contests pretty much scream out waiver wire material. The fact of the matter is that Kariya’s ship is beginning to right itself as he has five points along with 28 SOG in seven February contests. With the prospect of Kariya entering unrestricted free agency in the off-season, he could very much act as a rental player for a playoff contending team come March 3rd, which would see his fantasy value skyrocket. Either way now that we’ve hit the three-quarter point of the fantasy season, you might want to use these next two weeks to fully evaluate your team to see if you are in need to pick up a huge sleeper candidate for the rest of the season.

 

 

Now onto the good stuff.


I split the players into three categories.


HOT- look for the player to garner plenty of trade attention come deadline time.

LUKE WARM- the player does have some trade value, but will need a considerable amount of work in order to get moved.

ICE COLD- the player has essentially a slight chance of being moved, but don’t bet the farm.

 

 

San Jose

Safe: Dany Heatley, Joe Thornton, Ryane Clowe, Torrey Mitchell, Jamie McGinn, Dan Boyle, M.A. Vlasic, Doug Murray, Kent Huskins,  Jason Demers, Thomas Greiss

Movable:

HOT

None.

LUKE WARM

None.

ICE COLD

Patrick Marleau- Marleau’s the Sharks’ third leading scorer as he’s averaging 21:11 per contest while playing in all types of situations (3:23 on the power-play and 2:34 short-handed) in San Jose. Marleau plays too big of a part of the Sharks’ offense to be dealt at the deadline. Look for him to remain in San Jose after the deadline.

Joe Pavelski- Although Pavelski’s influence isn’t as prolific as Marleau’s, he’s still contributing in many areas for the Sharks. His 3:01 on the power-play and 2:37 short-handed ranks him as important to the San Jose squad as Marleau. Pavelski probably is a big part of the long-term future of the Sharks, especially if they decide to let Marleau walk in the off-season. He’ll stay post-deadline.

Devin Setoguchi- The Sharks’ top-six is pretty set in my opinion with Marleau, Thornton, Setoguchi, Pavelski, Heatley and Clowe occupying the top two lines. He’s slated to become a restricted free agent heading into summer, which is why I slotted him into the movable list, but with a salary of just $1.247 mil, including bonuses, the Sharks won’t be too desperate to move him.

Rob Blake- Blake’s the third-leading ice-time receiver in San Jose. The Sharks will need to utilize the experience from the 20-year NHL vet, and won’t be moving him at the deadline.

Jed Ortmeyer/Manny Malhotra/Scott Nichol- The Sharks’ checking line has done a fantastic job this season, as they’ve been shutting down most of the opponent’s top offensive lines. The trio has a plus 16 rating despite just amassing 55 points on the season. The Sharks will need to keep that trio together for the post-season if they were to face off against highly offensive teams like the Blackhawks, Canucks, Penguins or Capitals.

Brad Staubitz- The Edmontonian has appeared in just 32 contests this season, which he has amassed just six points. He has just nine points in his NHL career, which probably won’t generate enough interest in his services during deadline time. He won’t be moving.

Dwight Helminen- Along the same lines as Staubitz, Helminen is a career AHLer. He doesn’t garner much trade value and most likely won’t be moved.

Niclas Wallin- He was just acquired last week for his strong defensive play, so he won’t be changing addresses for the second time in a month.

Jay Leach- Leach is essentially a seventh/eighth depth defenseman, he doesn’t carry much trade value moving forward.

Evgeni Nabokov- Nabby’s 34 wins, 2.26 GAA and .928 save percentage rank him second, fifth, and third respectively in the league in those departments. He’s a top-five goalie, who will be the starting goalie for the high octane Team Russia, so it’ll take one hell of a deal to pry Nabby out of San Jose, which probably won’t happen.

 

 

St. Louis

Safe: Andy McDonald, Brad Boyes, David Backes, Jay McClement, T. J. Oshie, Patrik Berglund, B.J. Crombeen, Eric Brewer, Barret Jackman, Roman Polak,  Ty Conklin

Movable:

HOT

Paul Kariya- There’s a few teams that could definitely use a 15-year NHL veteran for the post-season push. The thing that might hold back any potential deals is his $6 mil price tag. The Blues and Canucks have been negotiating heavily the last few weeks, and perhaps sending Kariya back to his hometown might be a great retirement gift for him. A combination of Pavol Demitra plus Kyle Wellwood, Corey Schneider and draft picks for Kariya, David Perron and draft picks could make sense for both teams.

Keith Tkachuk- Much like Kariya, Tkachuk is quickly approaching his expiry date. The 18-year veteran has amassed 1,061 points in 1,189 career contests, and playoff-bound teams could definitely use his veteran presence upfront as an upgrade come deadline time. His 56.9 percent faceoff win efficiency currently ranks ninth in the entire league, so for teams who are struggling in that department (Colorado, Calgary, Dallas, Anaheim or Buffalo), Tkachuk might be a great addition come deadline time.

David Perron- Youngster Perron has world class talent, but motivation seems to be the biggest roadblock to his fantasy production. You can pretty much Youtube his highlight reels just to see how good he really is, but it’s the occasional healthy scratches that concern me. At a salary of just $875k, Perron might expect a big pay rise that the Blues can’t afford for next season. I wouldn’t peg him as a candidate to move at the deadline, but he is one of the more attractive pieces that the Blues could utilize as trade bait.

Carlo Colaiacovo- There is numerous rumors floating around the internet surrounding Colaiacovo’s status come trade deadline day. One of the main reasons why his name has been bandied about is because of his pending unrestricted free agent status in the off-season. He is a young blue-liner who does have plenty of offensive potential, but it’s the defensive aspect of his game that’s getting him into trouble. The way I see it is that he’s a poor man’s version of M.A. Bergeron. Now if you given a scenario where you could have a more offensively talented Bergeron for an asking price of just $750k or option b) a $1.283 mil price tag for Colaiacovo, which would you choose? Expect Colaiacovo to be a prime candidate to be moved at the deadline.

LUKE WARM

Darryl Sydor- Sydor is a great stay-at-home D and at a tender age of 37, he’s had plenty of game time experience under his belt. At a salary of just $1 mil, he could be a great rental option for teams right smack dab in the middle of the post-season hunt.

ICE COLD

Alex Steen- Steen has really proven himself as a huge power-play threat as 11 of his 28 points have come on the man advantage. At just 25 years of age, there is still plenty of room for the former 24th overall pick to develop further. Once the “oldies” clear out of the Blues’ locker room, it’ll really open up some extra ice-time for the young’ins moving forward. By averaging 2:19 on the PP per contest, I don’t think he gets moved at deadline time.

Brad Winchester- The cagey 5-year NHL veteran has yet to find himself a full-time NHL gig in his young career. The reason might just be his lack of offense as he has just only 40 points in 236 career contests. Either way there isn’t much trade demand for a third-line checker, especially at the deadline, so don’t expect Winchester to be moved at the deadline even though he’s due to be an unrestricted free agent in the summer.

D.J. King/Cam Janssen- With a combined goose egg in point production between the two, it’s pretty safe to say that both will be following along the Winchester boat and won’t be moved at the deadline. Janssen might receive a bit more interest because of his 163 PIMs which rank him second to Zenon Konopka in that department in the entire league, but generally speaking goons don’t really move on trade frenzy day.

Mike Weaver- There isn’t much trade demand for a seventh/eighth depth defenseman, especially one that has only tallied a total of five points this season. Look for Weaver to head into the off-season as an unrestricted free agent.

Erik Johnson- The former first overall pick has certainly started off his NHL career on the right foot as he’s amassed 62 points in 129 career contests. It’s fairly rare to see young defenseman operating near the 0.5 point-per-game pace, which makes the things that he’s accomplished even more special. Even though Johnson is scheduled to become a restricted free agent at the end of the season, he’s pretty much as untouchable for the Blues as they possibly come.

Chris Mason- Most teams are already set between the pipes moving forward. The Blues are only four points out of the eighth playoff spot out West, so they’ll probably need solid goaltending to at least keep some playoff hopes alive. Mason will probably finish the season as a Blue where he’ll test the free agent market in summer.

 

 

Vancouver


Safe: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin, Mikael Samuelsson, Steve Bernier, Alex Burrows, Darcy Hordichuk, Rick Rypien, Kevin Bieksa, Sami Salo, Alex Edler, Christian Ehrhoff, Nolan Baumgartner, Roberto Luongo


Movable:

HOT

- Mason Raymond- Raymond has had a huge contract year as he has tallied 43 points in 61contests. The problem is the Canucks have a few up-and-coming prospects that are ready for top-six gigs (Sergei Shirokov, Cody Hodgson, Michael Grabner). With both Sedins, Burrows, Kesler, and possibly Samuelsson/Bernier occupying the top-six, I don’t quite know where Raymond fits into the whole equation. I see him being utilized as a throw in as part of a package deal which might help the Canucks acquire some scoring depth at the deadline.

- Mathieu Schneider- Schneider has five points in eight contests playing for the Moose. The Canucks signed him in the off-season to help jumpstart the power-play, but as the season rolled on, they were quite happy relying on Edler, Ehrhoff and Bieksa to get the job done. The 40-year old definitely has tons of experience under his belt, and could provide some much needed veteran experience on the blue-line for a few playoff-bound teams. At a salary of just $1.55 mil this season, it’s probably not that harsh of a pill for potential trading partners to swallow.

- Corey Schneider- Schneider is probably in the worst possible scenario that he can possibly face. He has world class potential, but is stuck behind a world class talent with plenty of gas left in the tank for the future. There have been numerous reports of the Blues being interested in the young netminder, but will anything come of it will be the question that remains on our minds for the next two and a half weeks.

LUKE WARM

- Pavol Demitra- It can go either way for Demitra, in 11 contests since returning from shoulder surgery he has amassed four points. That’s not exactly mind-blowing numbers, but it does show that he’s still capable of putting up some offense. The Olympics will pretty much make or break his trade value come March 3rd.

- Kyle Wellwood- With just 15 points this season, it’s definitely hard to justify his $1.2 mil salary. If a few GMs are glass half-full type thinkers, they could look back to the 2006-07 season where Wellwood picked up 42 points in 48 contests and recognize that there is some offensive potential in him. There won’t be a huge amount of interest in Wellwood, but GM Mike Gillis might receive a few offers.

- Jannik Hansen- The Dane is progressing well in his young NHL career. He’s just 23-years old and still has plenty of room for development left in him. The only problem is that he’s not a great fit as a bottom-six player, and as you can tell from reading above, there really isn’t a slot for him in the top-six in the near future. The Canucks might consider using Hansen in a similar situation as Raymond, where he’ll be a throw in as part of a larger deal.

- Shane O’Brien- O’Brien is the physical presence on an otherwise not so physical blue-line corps. I really think that the Canucks will really miss his physical play if they were to deal him at the deadline, but then again they might garner plenty of trade interest in the rugged defenseman.

- Andrew Raycroft- Despite appearing in just 14 contests this season, Raycroft has a 2.31 GAA along with a respectable .912 save percentage. The Canucks are largely Luongo’s team, but if an injury were to befall upon him, Raycroft should be more than capable of filling in. But then again, his $500k salary could also be quite attractive to teams trying to clear salary for the rest of this season.

ICE COLD

- Ryan Kesler- The former 23rd overall pick is really coming into his own the last two seasons as he’s amassed 113 points since the beginning of last year. The Canucks have only committed roughly $38 mil of their salary to signed players for next season, so Kesler should head into off-season negotiations with a giant smile on his face. The Nucks need him for the post-season drive he won’t me moved.

- Ryan Johnson/Tanner Glass/Alex Borduc- There isn’t a huge demand for third-line players at the deadline which is why the trio probably won’t be moved at the deadline. Johnson leads all Canuck forwards in short-handed ice-time, which provides further evidence of his importance to the Vancouver roster. Glass and Borduc act as depth players for the Canucks, which probably won’t impress very many potential trade partners.

- Willie Mitchell- At a salary of $3.5 mil this season, that’s a hefty price to pay for the services of a shut-down defenseman. He averages a league-high 4:04 of short-handed ice-time each contest for the Nucks, which just shows how vital he is to the Vancouver defensive corps. They’ll need his services to match up against the highly offensive Sharks or Hawks during the post-season, so he won’t be changing addresses at the deadline.

- Brad Lukowich/Aaron Rome- Both blue-liners act as the seventh/eighth defenders for the Canucks. They’ll probably want to keep them as insurance policies for the post-season. The duo won’t be dealt.

 

Questions or comments? Like always I’ll be ready and willing to discuss them with you in the comments section below. Enjoy the two-week break from fantasy hockey, and we’ll see you back here next week with more goodies from the Wild West.


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Comments (3)add comment

david said:

tripel
... I dont think the Canucks will move Raymond. I think they want to grow that young 2nd line to be Raymond-Kesler-Bernier/Grabner, with Hodgson in the 3rd center spot next year. They do need more grit though, so I'd love to see them get Backes out of St Louis for Schneider+ ...but not sure if they can get that done, as I think the Blues are unlikely let him go (and they are also unlikley to have any interest in the likes of Wellwood or Demitra, IMO.)
Something around Schneider for Kariya might make sense for the stretch, but I don't know if the Canucks can absord his $6M salary.
Maybe something like Tkachuk and Coliacovo for Schneider and a pick? Both guys are UFA from the Blues, and would add depth to the bottom 6 and the blueline, respectively?
February 17, 2010
Votes: +0

mick said:

hawkdog
raymond I could see Gillis more interested in sending raymond for a perron or backes where there is a better chance to sign him to a new contract, there was no hope of resigning kovalchuck and then signing kesler as well. I would like that trade you mentioned of kariya and perron coming to vancouver for demitra and wellwood/cory schneider,
that would also make room for cody as third line center next year. Cory needs to go somewhere he can get a chance and Kariya in vancouver would be great.
Any bets on whether raymond will hit 30 goals?
Maybe raymond/bieksa/draft picks to toronto in a kaberle/stalberg deal?
February 16, 2010
Votes: +1

Budde said:

rbudde
everybody loves raymond I heard all sorts of rumours about Altanta asking for Raymond in the Kovalchuk sweepstakes. I think Vancouver brass wouldn't give him up then and so won't soon.
February 16, 2010
Votes: +0
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