Backes

 

This week I am going to look into the players that had the strongest finishes to the 2008-09 season, putting the most emphasis on guys who showed the most improvement in the final 20 games of last season.

 

PLAYER

TEAM

PPG (Oct - Feb)

PPG (Mar-Apr)

Alex Ponikarovsky

Toronto

.6

1.46

Sam Gagner

Edmonton

.39

1.13

Loui Eriksson

Dallas

.71

1.00

Ryan Kesler

Vancouver

.64

1.06

Alex Burrows

Vancouver

.54

1.00

Steve Stamkos

Tampa Bay

.48

1.00

David Booth

Florida

.73

1.10

Mikhail Grabovski

Toronto

.52

.89

Tobias Enstrom

Atlanta

.24

.89

David Backes

St Louis

.55

1.00

Matthew Lombardi

Phoenix

.57

.90

Ryan Shannon

Ottawa

.43

.67

Kyle Okposo

Islanders

.47

1.00

T.J. Oshie

St Louis

.57

.87

 

While the reasons for these improvements are different for each player, from increased ice time to being traded, the upswing in the point production cannot be ignored. Success in fantasy hockey is rarely realized with the first picks of a draft, but rather with what you do with your later round picks, and in turn, the unexpected production that these later picks provide. By studying a player's trends (or splits) throughout a full season, you can begin to predict future success. It must also be pointed out that some of these spikes will actually turn out to be fluke or well timed "hot streaks" and will not prove to be a telling sign of future production. Keep an eye on these players throughout training camp, including following their power-play time and line combinations, and you will develop a good feel for who has the best chance to continue to produce into the 2009-10 season.

 

A few things to consider for the upcoming fantasy season in regards to the Olympic year:

1)    The Olympics have long been a touchy subject with the NHL, and the impact they have on fantasy production should not be ignored. However, with the games being held in North America this time, the overall negative fallout on the players involved should be minimal. Had the games been held on another continent, I may have been more than a little wary of fatigue factor,  and considering that most of the players involved are fantasy worthy, it may have led me to put a little more value on the second tier players. Basically, this whole paragraph was pointless ... we will visit this subject again in four years.

2)    I would also keep an eye on the players that are cut from their respective Olympic squads. There is going to be some sort of reaction to being left off the National team and while some guys may use it as motivation and produce a career year, I guarantee some of the weaker (mentally) players will have a poor second half off due to the disappointment. I will follow this up with an article as the cuts are made.

3)   I predict we will see some sort of effect on the players of Team Canada this season. The incredible pressure that will be on these guys from about January on thru the games will be immense and I believe that this could negatively impact their production, especially of some of the younger players. I'm not saying to avoid Mike Richards or Ryan Getzlaf come draft time, but I would definitely listen to trade offers come Christmas, and be more than willing to part ways at that time.

My next column will contain less stats ... all that figuring out stuff makes my brain hurt

As always, sugar-coat my donuts baby, but not my fantasy hockey news

Burnsy out

 


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Comments (9)add comment

Chris Burns said:

Burnsy
Whoops Just noticed that the Yahoo stats splits I was using are a little off ... some of the guys dont have thier April totals included ... not sure why but it is a Yahoo glitch ... Anyway, this still gives a good idea of who was hot ... and for those of you who bitched about it .. do your own bloody homework next time.
August 28, 2009
Votes: -1

bluejays said:

bluejays
... wow, really surprised at Alex Ponikarovsky. Member everyone thought loosing Antropov would hurt him? Guess not.
Nice article.
August 28, 2009
Votes: +0

Chris said:

C.J
... Hey Jason...while you are correct that his math is off, you somehow completely missed him saying the final 20 games, not 19 (which of course makes the math even more off.

The point being, dont point out someone elses errors and then throw in some figures that are not even based on what the article says :

This week I am going to look into the players that had the strongest finishes to the 2008-09 season, putting the most emphasis on guys who showed the most improvement in the final 20 games of last season
August 28, 2009
Votes: +0

jason said:

toewsfan
Shoddy Math I haven't checked the totals for any of the other players, but you have some shoddy math (or made a typo) with Ponikarovsky's totals for March and April. He had 22 points in 19 games = 1.16 ppg (not 1.46 ppg). Still impressive numbers for Poni, but its pretty important to have your numbers right if your gonna put together this kind of article.
August 28, 2009
Votes: -1

lanky522 said:

lanky522
... Nice article Burnsy.

I think a some of those guys actually "underproduced" in the first half, and that's why their ppg increased by the end of the season. Guys like Gagner, stamkos, and enstrom make really really good sleeper picks for the upcoming season because their first half really left a sour taste in a lot of fantasy managers mouths.
August 28, 2009
Votes: +0

Ian said:

Nifty Mittens
... You're damn SKIPPY it is.
August 28, 2009
Votes: +0

Chris said:

C.J
... Callahan should be on there too smilies/wink.gif
August 27, 2009
Votes: +0

Chris said:

C.J
... I think Frolik should be there before Shannon.
August 27, 2009
Votes: +0

Jeff Angus said:

angus
... Fantastic article - something I always look for doing my draft research.
August 27, 2009
Votes: +0
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