kovalchuk

 

Happy New Year!

We'll continue with part three of a four part series (similar to my Western counter-parts “Fantasy Indicators of Success ” series). My last article covered defensemen and how important power play ice time was to their success. This week’s focus is on Eastern Conference wingers (as listed by NHL.com).

 



Forwards aren’t much different in that they also need quality minutes in order to produce. One statistic that I value in addition to the ice times is Shots on Goal (SOG). When a player is getting shots on goal, they are involved in generating offence. Statistics include Monday night’s games.

 

Atlanta Thrashers

Avg TOI

Avg PPTOI

GP

Pts

SOG

LW-Ilya Kovalchuk

21:26

5:37

36

35

102

LW-Slava Kozlov

16:46

3:23

36

34

69

RW-Jason Williams

15:55

2:48

35

17

70

RW-Colby Armstrong

14:41

1:03

36

14

53

 



Atlanta – Kovalchuk is always near the top in shots on goal. The Russian sniper has averaged over 3.6 shots per game during his career. Heading into this season, Kovalchuk had 466 points in 466 games. It looks like Slava Kozlov is back. Prior to last year’s disappointing 41 points, Kozlov has back-to-back seasons of 80 and 71 points. He’s on pace to record over 37 power play points! Last season, had Jason Williams played all 82 games, he would have finished with 68 points. This year he is on pace for only 40 points. After coming over from Pittsburgh, Colby Armstrong scored at a 50 point pace. This season, he is only on pace for 33 points.


Boston Bruins

Avg TOI

Avg PPTOI

GP

Pts

SOG

RW-Phil Kessel

16:46

2:31

36

38

120

LW-P.J. Axelsson

16:37

1:28

33

12

40

LW-Marco Sturm

16:01

3:14

19

13

45

RW-Michael Ryder

14:53

3:02

36

26

95

LW-Blake Wheeler

12:31

0:29

36

23

53




Boston – Phil Kessel is having his breakthrough season in this, his third NHL season. He is on pace for about 275 shots on goal. While P.J. Axelsson gets lots of ice time, much of it is in a defensive role and on the penalty kill. He’s a valuable NHL player, but should not be on most fantasy rosters. This season, Marco Sturm has scored at a 56 point pace, but may require knee surgery and is best avoided. Michael Ryder is on a similar pace to his old Montreal days; 30 goals, 58 points and 220 shots on goal. Blake Wheeler is having quite a rookie season. He might get 50 points and is an incredible plus-22.


Buffalo Sabres

Avg TOI

Avg PPTOI

GP

Pts

SOG

RW-Jason Pominville

20:17

4:08

36

27

99

LW-Thomas Vanek

18:28

4:11

36

32

133

RW-Ales Kotalik

15:42

3:20

29

19

93

RW-Drew Stafford

15:27

2:15

33

19

84

LW-Clarke MacArthur

14:44

2:16

35

19

57

RW-Maxim Afinogenov

12:55

2:34

32

12

63




Buffalo – Jason Pominville is on pace for only about 60 points, but I can see him picking it up and finishing with 70 points or more. Thomas Vanek is shooting more this season. He is on pace for 297 shots on goal, 55 goals and 71 points. Last year, Ales Kotalik scored 55.8 per cent of his 43 points on the power play. This season, he has scored 58 per cent of his points via the man advantage and is on pace for about 47 points. Both Drew Stafford and Clarke MacArthur are on pace for about 45 points. Stafford will finish with almost 200 shots on goal, while MacArthur could get 20 power play points. Max Afinogenov is only two years removed from 61 points in 56 games and would likely benefit from a change of scenery.


Carolina Hurricanes

Avg TOI

Avg PPTOI

GP

Pts

SOG

LW-Ray Whitney

19:26

4:13

37

32

114

LW-Sergei Samsonov

17:47

3:36

37

16

75

RW-Justin Williams

14:31

3:29

12

3

25

RW-Scott Walker

14:26

1:09

22

9

40




Carolina – If Ray Whitney could stay healthy, he could score 70 points, but his injury history suggests that counting on more than 70 games and 60 points is wishful thinking. Sergei Samsonov continues to be given every opportunity to score points, but is only on pace for 35 points. Prior to this season, Justin Williams score 55 points for every 82 games played. The 35-year-old Scott Walker is too injury prone to own in a hockey pool.


Florida Panthers

Avg TOI

Avg PPTOI

GP

Pts

SOG

LW-David Booth

17:23

3:04

29

19

103

LW-Cory Stillman

16:39

4:07

20

14

35

RW-Radek Dvorak

16:22

0:32

35

14

52

LW-Rostislav Olesz

14:56

2:34

23

5

45

LW-Ville Peltonen

14:42

0:25

36

13

49

RW-Richard Zednik

14:39

2:07

26

10

52




Florida – David Booth should set a career high with about 50 points. Even with second power play unit ice time, Booth only has four power play points. Cory Stillman is only on pace for 46 points this season, but over the last five seasons he has averaged 63 points. The rest of the wingers on Florida aren’t worth owning.

 


Montreal Canadiens

Avg TOI

Avg PPTOI

GP

Pts

SOG

RW-Alexei Kovalev

20:12

4:26

35

28

105

LW-Christopher Higgins

16:17

2:57

21

9

52

LW-Alex Tanguay

16:11

3:45

33

26

53

LW-Andrei Kostitsyn

15:17

2:58

31

17

72

LW-Sergei Kostitsyn

14:39

2:26

32

13

48

RW-Matt D’Agostini

14:29

2:37

13

8

39




Montreal – Alexei Kovalev is on pace for only 63 points this year. He did score 12 points in 13 December games, so 70 points shouldn’t be too hard for Kovalev to achieve. Chris Higgins has been hurt for much of the season and is expected to be out for about five more weeks. Another injured Canadien is Alex Tanguay. Even before his injury, he was only looking at 60-65 points this season. His days of 75-80 points are behind him. Andrei Kostitsyn had 53 points last year and is on pace for only 41 this year. Look for him to pick it up in the second half. Seven of Sergei Kostitsyn’s 13 points have come on the power play. Matt D’Agostini hasn’t recorded a point in his last three games, but is still on pace for 25 goals and 34 points.


New Jersey Devils

Avg TOI

Avg PPTOI

GP

Pts

SOG

LW-Zach Parise

19:33

3:42

34

42

147

LW-Patrik Elias

19:01

3:38

34

39

124

RW-Jamie Langenbrunner

18:46

3:21

33

22

82

RW-Brian Gionta

16:47

2:07

33

29

100

RW-Dainius Zubrus

16:20

2:11

34

20

58

RW-David Clarkson

12:44

1:51

34

12

63




New Jersey – Zach Parise is on pace for 103 points and 356 shots on goal! Parise has 19 points in 13 December games.  I think 100 points is a bit much for this season, but 85-90 points and about 330 shots on goal seem about right. Elias has 18 points in 13 December games and is on pace for 91 points. He’ll cool a little, but will still finish with 85 points. Jamie Langenbrunner is right about where he should be; he’s on pace for 57 points. Brian Gionta is on pace for 69 points, but he will likely slow down a bit and finish with around 60-65 points. Dainius Zubrus could score 50 points this year. David Clarkson is on pace for 30 points and 135 penalty minutes.


New York Islanders

Avg TOI

Avg PPTOI

GP

Pts

SOG

RW-Bill Guerin

18:03

4:43

37

27

128

RW-Trent Hunter

17:15

4:01

35

24

100

RW-Richard Park

16:59

1:09

37

16

68

LW-Andy Hilbert

16:08

0:52

35

17

76

RW-Kyle Okposo

14:57

2:01

24

9

52




New York Islanders – Bill Guerin could hit 60 points and 285 shots on goal. Trent Hunter will have a career year with over 50 points this season. Richard Park is on pace for 35 points, which would better his career high of 32 points from last season. Andy Hilbert should better his career high of 28 points. Much more was expected from Kyle Okposo this season. His five points in nine games last season had many of us thinking 45-50 points this year. Unfortunately, he is on pace for around 30 points, but has six points in his last four games.


New York Rangers

Avg TOI

Avg PPTOI

GP

Pts

SOG

LW-Markus Naslund

18:09

3:50

39

27

101

RW-Nikolai Zherdev

16:59

3:17

39

34

102

RW-Ryan Callahan

16:25

1:26

39

15

112

LW-Aaron Voros

11:28

1:44

38

14

56




New York Rangers – Markus Naslund will finish with close to 60 points. Nik Zherdev is on pace for 71 points after last season’s previous career high of 61 points. Someone forgot to tell Ryan Callahan that he is only a role player this season. He’s already set career highs for goals, points and shots on goal. Aaron Voros was getting second line minutes, but after his nine points in eight games, Voros has only scored five points in 30 games.


Ottawa Senators

Avg TOI

Avg PPTOI

GP

Pts

SOG

LW-Dany Heatley

21:20

4:58

34

33

109

RW-Daniel Alfredsson

20:51

4:35

33

30

86

LW-Antoine Vermette

18:22

2:01

34

7

86

LW-Chris Kelly

16:01

0:10

34

8

47

LW-Nick Foligno

12:08

1:56

34

11

58




Ottawa – Dany Heatley’s projected 79 points would be his lowest since 2003-04. Daniel Alfredsson is having his worst season since 2001-02. Antoine Vermette and Chris Kelly are on pace for only 18 points apiece this year, serious disappointments after recording 53 and 30 points respectively last year. Even with limited ice time, Nick Foligno has been a pleasant surprise this year.

Philadelphia Flyers

Avg TOI

Avg PPTOI

GP

Pts

SOG

LW-Simon Gagne

19:29

3:28

35

40

93

RW-Mike Knuble

18:22

3:06

36

23

68

LW-Scott Hartnell

17:40

2:16

36

27

88

RW-Joffrey Lupul

15:35

2:16

36

24

77




Philadephia – Simon Gagne is on pace for 90 points, but with his most recent injury, he’ll be lucky to hit 80 points this year. Mike Knuble is on target for 55 points, right around what was expected. If Scott Hartnell and Joffrey Lupul can continue to score like they have, they’ll both finish with new career highs.


Pittsburgh Penguins

Avg TOI

Avg PPTOI

GP

Pts

SOG

RW-Miroslav Satan

17:23

3:38

36

25

73

RW-Petr Sykora

15:55

3:50

33

28

73

LW-Ruslan Fedotenko

14:21

1:44

34

18

60




Pittsburgh – Miroslav Satan will have to pick it up in the second half in order to finish around the 60 point mark. Petr Sykora is right about where he should be. Ruslan Fedotenko is set to eclipse 40 points for the second time in his career.


Tampa Bay Lightning

Avg TOI

Avg PPTOI

GP

Pts

SOG

RW-Martin St.Louis

21:38

5:07

35

31

103

LW-Vaclav Prospal

19:08

4:06

35

17

89

RW-Mark Recchi

17:03

2:55

35

22

60

LW-Ryan Malone

16:35

3:26

26

18

41

LW-Jussi Jokinen

16:24

2:10

35

14

50



Tampa Bay – With some luck, Martin St. Louis will hit the 30 goal plateau for the fifth time in his career. The little big man is also set to record over 240 shots on goal for the third straight season. For all the ice time Vaclav Prospal receives, he hasn’t put up nearly enough points. Nine of Mark Recchi’s 22 points have come with the man advantage. If Ryan Malone can manage to stay healthy, he’ll match his career high 51 points that he recorded last year. In each of the last seven games, Jussi Jokinen has played less than 15:30.  


Toronto Maple Leafs

Avg TOI

Avg PPTOI

GP

Pts

SOG

RW-Lee Stempniak

17:43

3:24

30

20

77

RW-Niklas Hagman

17:40

2:37

32

22

99

RW-Nik Antropov

17:19

3:22

36

29

96

LW-Jason Blake

16:59

2:15

32

20

104

LW-Alexei Ponikarovsky

15:35

2:19

36

26

83

RW-Jeremy Williams

15:14

2:07

9

7

21



Toronto – After scoring 13 points in 14 games with St. Louis, Lee Stempniak has struggled with the Maple Leafs, scoring only has eight points in 17 games. Niklas Hagman is on pace for what would be a career high 50 points and 240 shots on goal this year. It’s no coincidence that his shots on goal will have increased five straight seasons. Nik Antropov is set to increase his points and shots on goal totals for the third consecutive year. It looks like Jason Blake will have his first sub-50 point, 300 shots on goal season in three seasons. Alexei Ponikarovsky will surely set a career high this year, but he only has to beat 45 points to do that. Prior to his injury, Jeremy Williams hadn’t recorded a point in four straight games.


Washington Capitals

Avg TOI

Avg PPTOI

GP

Pts

SOG

LW-Alexander Ovechkin

22:54

5:16

35

49

223

LW-Alexander Semin

19:07

4:11

21

32

62

LW-Tomas Fleischmann

15:22

2:47

32

19

66




Washington – What more can you say about Ovechkin? He’s on pace for 55 goals, 108 points and an unbelievable 504 shots on goal! Alexander Semin was having a breakthrough season, but once again he is battling injuries. This is his fourth NHL season and his games played by season are 52, 77 and 63. He has already missed 17 games and counting this year. Tomas Fleischmann was taking advantage of his opportunity with eight power play points, but he needs to get healthy in order to contribute.


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