| Top 50 Goalies | Tweet |
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| Tuesday, 20 September 2011 00:00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Updated for May The following is a list of the Top 50 goaltenders to own in your fantasy pool - you can get an expanded TOP 120 list as a Premium member over at The Goalie Post (get a free, one-week trial and see just how worthwhile this membership is - make sure you set up your email notifications for the added edge!).
These are the goalies to own in a keeper league.
As with the Fantasy Player list – the rating number is weighted according to actual value IN A KEEPER LEAGUE.
I use the following criteria, as of February 2012:
1. The quality of players in front of him, both today and over the next two years. 2. The goalie's age. An 18-year-old or a 40-year-old would get no bonus. A small bonus given to goalies in their prime. 3. I used two different formulas for prospects and for full-timers. The biggest obstacle I have in these rankings is integrating a prospect's value among the veterans. Using these two formulas I have addressed this far better. 4. The goalie's workload and his number of quality starts this year and a projection for next year. 5. Proneness to injury. 6. Predicted wins for the current season (less emphasis given for prospects, obviously - part of the "two different formulas" thing I alluded to above) 7. Years until he is a starter, at best. This is only used for prospects. The smaller the number, the better. 8. How many times in the last three seasons did the goaltender have 33 wins. Speaks to a history of success and establishes a "name" value that boosts a goalie even if he's having an off-year.
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Comments (235)
Dobber
said:
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... NoChance - chasing wins isn't a strategy I recommend. I am only trying to say that the one common denominator in all fantasy formats is that WINS is one of the categories. Therefore, it is the one stat that is key for ranking goalies in fantasy. So being on a better team helps. Being the clear-cut No.1 guy with a weak backup helps. Take Fleury for example. He's terrible. But the guy is going to get 35+ wins next year again even though he can't start for them in the playoffs! There are other categories considered here, but WINS is the only one that is in all pools. Wins have a positive correlation to shutouts and saves. I guarantee you that more often than not, the goalie with 35 wins has more shutouts and saves than the goalie with 25 wins. That's my point. I do not mean chase the wins. I hope that clarifies. |
NoChance
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Wins Dobber, you mention that wins is the most important stat there is. I don't quite agree with that statement. While I can understand the value in chasing wins in a roto scoring league, I believe that is a dangerous strategy in H2H leagues. Assuming the scoring categories of W, GAA, SV% and SHO, I believe SV% is the most important stat. Most H2H leagues have a minimum weekly start rate of 2 or 3 games. If you want to consistently win the W category then you will need to start more than the minimum every week. This basically means rostering and always starting three goaltenders. There are very few goalies out there (maybe 5) that both start and win a lot of games as well as consistently have a high SV%. Therefore the end result of this strategy (unless you somehow rostered 2 or 3 of the 5) is that you consistently win the W category but your success in the other categories is a toss up week to week. Now consider a strategy focusing on SV% where you will only start the minimum from week to week. To achieve this, you only need to roster 2 goalies. In fact, one of these goalies could even be in a platoon (think Halak or Schneider last year) or a backup (Khudobin this year). This opens up a roster spot for another forward/dman in order to chase those counting stats each week. You pick the best 2 matchups each week and only play those games. The result? More often than not, you will win GAA and SV% while losing W. SHO is always a toss up week to week but even if you lose it you are still splitting goaltending. Use the extra roster spot and the relatively low cost of acquiring this goaltending to focus on winning the forward/dmen categories and you consistently win your weekly matchup. |
Dobber
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Anderson As an Anderson owner (three of my leagues), this is no oversight. In terms of talent, I consider him a Top 5 goalie in the league. Factor in his team, and maybe he's 7th or 8th. Factor in his relentless injuries...and 21 seems about right. And you didn't try trading him to other owners in your league, like I did. Tough market. Valued at 21 sounds perfect, much as I hate to say it. |
Dobber
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... My logic? 1. Give me Fleury over Rinne. Rinne is better by far, and I don't think highly of Fleury at all, but next year and to finish this year, nobody will have more wins. Nobody. And team is half the value for goalies in fantasy hockey. Not one league that counts goalies ignores the W stat. The most important stat there is. 2. As I say with all these rankings I do, I absolutely refuse to argue Player A vs. Player B when their 'rating' is within 5 of each other. If two goalies are within 5 rating points, then they are equal. Depending on mood or situation, you can choose one goalie over the other, and then the other goalie over the first one, and it's the same thing. It's like telling me you prefer strawberry jam on your bread over strawberry jelly. I just shrug. Same thing. Bobrovsky is not Jim Carey 2.0 at all though. Save that analogy for one that better fits. Like Steve Mason. 3. I've been saying that the Islanders are a team to build on for years. Lehtonen is a bandaid boy, Dubnyk has proven nothing and Reimer is only just coming into his own. But as per Point 2, these goalies are not worth the argument over Player A vs. B, ratings are too close. For more of my thoughts on the Islanders, see my article at THN.com from Thursday: http://www.thehockeynews.com/a...orner.html With all goalies, their value swings quickly and suddenly. Jimmy Howard is a Top 5 goalie one year, 15th another year, back to Top 5 another year, Rinne is Top 3 can't miss one year, then he barely gets 17 wins the next year. Mason is an untouchable superstar one year, the next year he's a laughingstock. Hiller is Top 10 one year, barely hanging onto his job the next. Reimer is terrible in the summer and the Leafs need Luongo...and three months later he's a superstar with 20 wins in a 48-game season. Need I go on? |
MGW
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Jim Carey 2.0 Love the analogy, another decent one would be Steve Mason 2.0. I'm not here to say that Bob isn't the real deal, I just don't see why anyone would trade away a goalie like Rask or Quick for him yet. Both Rask & Quick are more proven, and have far better teams in front of them. Agree with Manimal and would like to hear the reasoning behind his high ranking. |
Manimal
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... Good list...I have three challenges,. 1. I think you have to have Rinne ahead of fleury...the fact that pit picked up vokoun shows lack of trust with m.a.f whereas rinne has no competition. add in the fact that nashville plays a much more defensive game it seems to me as a no brainer in a trade. 2. I would be happy to trade my Bob for your rask, schneider or howard. bob has not proved near enough to be this high. bad team on a good run. He very easily could be a Jim Carey 2.0. 3. nabokov = old and really an an avg team at best over the next two years. they have thomas as well depending on what happens there...i just don't understand how you can logically put him over a riemer, lehtonen, dubnyk. Easy to poke holes - but I would be interested to understand your logic on the notes above. |
sasquatch
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Anderson & Holtby Anderson dropping to 21 seems just to me, he's only got a future stud challenging him all the way, plus he was injured. Assuming he plays as he has so far this season he should bounce back to around 14 next month though you'd think. I think Holtby should be much higher, Holtby was basically MAF this last two months, except Holtby actually has good games. Washington are pretty hot and he's lucky enough to be along for the ride. |
plateaumax
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... @Dobber Cory Schneider is a top 5 in my opinion. Luongo will be gone this summer and the Canucks will roll with Cory for the playoffs. |
MGW
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Miller Still think it matters when a goalie is overrated, as those 70 game seasons just won't last. How bout that Bobrovsky goalie eh...a few good weeks-months and he's above Quick and Rask. IMO that's a bit premature. |
MJ Flex
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Ward Is Cam Ward drop-off due mainly because he is injured or has he fallen that far off from being a top 10 goalie? |
Le Jule
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Goaler is fantasy Gem ! good ranking ! Price #2 woot ! Not enough credit to Mike Smith in my own ... i see I'm ahead or as good of Bobrovsky, pavelec and Howard ... |
jsuites
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... Nice to see Lehtonen moving up. From the list of criteria used to create these rankings, it appears that GAA and SV% are not factored in, correct? |
Dobber
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... germant - So a month later, still feel that way about Hiller? Don't let emotions cloud judgment. Same goes for allen5938 "Miller Overrated" and MGW who agrees with him - It doesn't matter if a goalie is overrated. Because it means that the coach overrates him as well. And that means that coach plays him. And if a goalie plays 70 games, he is a Top 10 keeper goalie right there. All leagues count wins and most leagues count saves - so playing 70 games makes you a stud. Doesn't matter how shitty the goalie actually is. germant - the Leafs goalies were both over Varly at the time but the difference was tiny. Tomato or Tomatto. Leafs will get more wins than the Avs. In goalie rankings - W is king. Maybe not in your league, but 99% of leagues. mabus - yes, I was saying that. Avs aren't winning any games. And I don't see them winning games next year either. Need a new coach. |
allen5938
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Miller Overrated Miller is the most constantly over rated player in the NHL.He has had one good season in a sea mediocrity(.915 sp and 2.80 gaa) .How on earth could you possibly justify this #5 ranking.He is barely top 20. You have him ahead of Quick,Luongo ,Rask, Anderson etc etc ,not a chance. |
germant
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This list is a little screwy . . . Man, I usually buy into this site like gospel but gotta say this list is disappointing. As mabus has said, Varlamov's position is a head scratcher. Behind BOTH Toronto goalies? And behind BOTH Anaheim goalies? Last I looked, Hiller is dangerously close to becoming a full time backup. Even more difficult to understand is he's behind both Florida goalies (though Markstrom's immense potential is tempting - it's still potential until realized) and Theodore has been brutal this year (read Feb 21 Ramblings). |
newfcollins
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... I have Miller on my fantasy squad. I think he's pretty underrated. That said, I have no idea how he is a top five goalie. He's 24th in GAA, 16th in save percentage, has six wins in 15 games, no shutouts, and the team in front of him is horrible. I don't know if the squad in front of him is good enough to win Miller games. Miller is playing well, but that's about it (Vanek too. but he's slowing down). |
mabus
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... So in a keeper league, you think I would be better off by trading Varlamov for Theodore, Backstrom or Nabokov? For a young guy on a young but talented squad, it feels like you are a bit low on him. ...and how do both of Anaheim's (Fasth and Hiller) and Toronto's (Reimer and Scrivens) goalies have more long term value than the started in Colorado? Odd. |
sasquatch
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Top 50 goalies?? Top 100, awesome!! You should probably update your general blurb though if you're permenantly expanding this to top 100...  |
Dobber
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... Sleemans - They should be there as of October. No? I will look into it. Oilers - the idea is that the Top 120 include prospects, and that Goalie Post carries that Top 120 list. But as Sleemans points out this is not the case. Looking into it. |
Oilers rock 99
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Time for a addition to this area! I think you should have a top 15 goalie prospects just how you have in the d-fence area lets face it is there a harder area to predict?? lets say guys that have less than 10 NHL starts. |
Sleemans
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... I wanted to mention that I have a paid membership at the Goalie Post, and there hasn't been an updated version of the top 120 since March. It's the same for Justin's top 150 goalie prospects, which is disappointing since it was supposed to be included with a paid membership as well ... Thanks |
Dobber
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... Suites - probably a personal bias dragging him down. I don't like him because of his BAB status, and I really like Bachman Rollie - this was done when Brodeur may retire, you posted on May 22 so I can only say that at the time Brodeur had no trade value at all. Millhouse - a little, yes. |
Millhouse
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... Question, does Fleury's value drop with Vokoun in Pitt now. Now I don't believe Fleury is a backup now, but I believe he will have a lot less starts. Why else would they bring Vokoun in. To put on a little skirt and wave Pom Pom's around in support |
Rollie1967
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... Brodeur behind Enroth? really? and Nabokovs best years are behind him,but I dont see him anything but the #1 option on Long Island, unless you believe DiPietro is going to stay healthy. |
jsuites
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Lehtonen Thanks for these rankings, I always find them interesting. I have to ask though - how does Lehtonen end up 27th, behind guys like Dubnyk and Reimer? Lehtonen's stats for the last two seasons: 2010-11 (69 GP) Wins 34 (12th overall) GAA 2.55 (14th overall among goalies with 30+ starts) SV% .914 (19th overall among goalies with 30+ starts) 2011-12 (59 GP) Wins 32 (12th overall) GAA 2.33 (6th overall among goalies with 30+ starts) SV% .922 (6th overall among goalies with 30+ starts) And this is what he's been able to do on a non-playoff team with no budget. With a great core in place and Gaglardi ready to spend, I do not expect a regression. Unless you feel two relatively injury-free seasons (with a hiccup last year) are not enough to remove him from BAB status? Cheers, -js PS. I'm planning on buying FP and GP subscriptions again this year. Can't live without Goldman's email updates. |
Dobber
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... Chris - yes Nate - Holtby moves up Sentium - Holtby's team doesn't win as many games, and the G situation is in flux, with two good ones plus a history of signing free agents. Cory is in a situation with two good ones but one will certainly move. This is a keeper ranking and I'll bet you 10 bucks that Schneider gets 10 more wins than Holtby next season. My opinion on keeper value and I'm happy with it. In my league, you'd get your ass handed to you I'm afraid  |
Chris
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within 10 pts I was just wondering if the rating issued for the goalies is similar to the prospects list, where anything between 10 points is basically a wash (the players are more or less equal)? |
Nate
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My top list Lundqvist Rinne Fleury Quick Luongo Howard Bryzgalov Miller Ward Thomas Halak Schneider Smith Crawford Rask |
sentium
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... Schneider goes up to seven after one start. Go figure. Makes me wonder why Braden Holtby isn't number one after four-five good playoff games. Ridiculous. |
notoriousjim
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... Schneider is high since everyone expects him to be a starter next season. he has been inching up for the past year. If he becomes a starter next year that ranking makes sense. the fact that it is still not in the bag yet makes me think of him more like 15th-20th range was closer to right. Also he has an outside chance of seeing playoff time this season if louongo falters at all. with 2 weeks left in the season job security for this regular season means very little in these ranks unless you are on a playoff team. About a month ago i traded him strait up for Taylor Hall in a 16 team dynasty. so the preceived trading value is already there (the trade did cause an uproar in the league, so 1 out of 16 people liked that trade, but that is still enought to baloon his value). I still only view him as about a half step ahead of bernier, lerhner lack and the rest of the elite goalie prospects since he is close to getting a clear shot. I do disagree on the rankings. I would much rahter have every guy ranked near him, price, rask, niemi,and ward since by age they are all fiarly close (they are all very young and i am pretty sure price and rask are the youngest not the guy who really is just a super prospect. My question is why does jiggy still get no love here. He is basically tim thomas lite right now. |
Carcillo
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Lehtonen at 27th? Behind guys like Reimer, Dubnyk, Crawford.... Wow. Can't disagree any more with that. Lehtonen should easily be in the top-20. |
notoriousjim
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... chad johnson had me scratching my head a little, I know he was great in college, but with lundy i assume the chance to be a starter would never be there, and a team would really have to take a chance on him to even get a chance at starting. Why is he so high? what did i miss? |
Buffalo87
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Bryzgalov/Miller Just curious, I agree with Miller's placement here but how did he fall so far yet Bryzgalov is still 7th? They have the same numbers and are the same age. Is it purely based on the teams they play for? |
lilbigman1527
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Lundqvist Playing on the current #1 team in the NHL and putting up the best numbers of his career I sure hope Lundqvist is #1 on the next update.... |
Dobber
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bogans As I stated at the outset, any goaltender within five ratings points are pretty much equal in fantasy hockey keepers - some owners would prefer one goalie, others another goalie. In this case, Bryzgalov was 0.4 rating points ahead, which is negligible. Obviously, since Bryz didn't start the Classic, the Rags are white-hot, and Bobrovsky has been excellent, these rankings will shift dramatically next update. But in the future, keep an eye on the actual difference in ratings points because you'll find that I'm not rating one ahead of another at all |
bogans
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... I know that I am a total NYR homer, but honestly, how can Bryz be above Henke on this list? He's been wildly inconsistent all season long and I am sure he will settle down and get a ton of wins, but he's also had a history of faltering late in the season (during fantasy playoffs). |
Dobber
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... AL - you would honestly prefer to own Backstrom over Kiprusoff? Does year after year of 35-plus wins mean nothing? Why does it mean nothing? Because after 10 weeks Backstrom is doing well? And how is Kipper's backup doing? A big threat to cannibalizing starts? Piece of advice - don't judge based on 10 weeks, and pay attention to the backup threat. Harding is outplaying Backstrom, if it wasn't for his injury he may have stolen the job by now. Gustavsson you have a point, I put a number in one column that should have gone in the other column. The result was a HUGE boost! Apologies |
Katharsis
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...Question?? The points awarded for Wins and Shut Outs for goalies. Standard points leagues do 1 for a W, 2 for a shut out (1W+2SO). Other leagues might count 3 for a W, 5 for a SHO. The columns just show you the projected points based on what Dobber projects their wins and shut outs. |
William Rimberg-Buch
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Dobber...really? So Ward goes from 14 to 18 in the latest rankings despite his playing out of his mind since giving up five opening night yet Vokoun,Kipper, Halak all of whom haven't done squatole especially Halak and Niemi who hasn't even really played are all ahead of Ward now?? Huh, I must be missing something in what you are seeing Dobber as we are clearly looking at things opposite end of the spectrum. I fully realize rankings are purely subjective but if I were a Ward owner which I'm not, I wouldn't trade him straight up for any of those other goalies...not a remote chance. Ward is still quite young, has a very nice upward pattern in his stats and is clearly a #1 fantasy goalie yet you have him a mid tier #2 type in a normal 12-team league...odd very odd! |
Ricky Michaels
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Question?? Dobber, in your draft list...what is 1W+2SO and 3W+5SO mean in the goalie section?? |
Ryan
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Marty Feels weird to see him at that number. Don't know if I'll get used to him not being top 5 every year. I understand it's expected and he didn't do much over the last couple years, BUT! Loving some of the younger lesser name, BUT Niittymaki doesn't even belong in the NHL anymore. |
Mabus
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... As a reference point, here are the top 14 goalies in wins from last year 1. Luongo (53) 2. Thomas (51) 3. Howard (44) 4. Niemi (43) 5. Price (41) 6T. Fleury (39) 6T. Rinne (39) 8T. Kiprusoof (37) 8T. Ward (37) 8T. Quick (37) 8T. Miller (37) 12T. Bryzgalov (36) 12T. Lundqvist (36) 12T. Crawford (36) Looking at your list, here are a few thoughts: I'd suggest that Luongo should be on top and in this format should clearly be the first goalie taken. His team is good this year and looks solid for a few years to come. He also has a large enough contract that he will get icetime. Finally, at 31, we shouldn't see a decline in skills for a while. Niemi and Howard are much too low. Howard at 26 is just entering his prime, and the fact that Detroit wouldn't give Vokoun the starting role speaks something towards their confidence. Niemi is also in his prime, plays on a team that should contend for the president's trophy and Stanley Cup and the organization has shown that they will give their top goalie a heavy workload. As you can see from the distribution of points, there was only a three win difference between the 6th best goalie last year and the 14th best, so arguing a one or two spot change is relatively pointless with the rules outlined. I really don't understand Mason as the 12th best goalie though. Columbus seems like a long-shot to make the playoffs at best, and Mason's play hasn't been good. Ward at 16 also confuses me. He was the 8th best goalie last year. His save percentage seems to improve every year. The team surrounding him seems to be improving. At 26, he's just entering his prime. Swap Ward with Mason, and the list is solid. As stated above, I'd make some other minor order changes, but I think the list is solid. I'm not a huge Thomas fan with his age (this is the age where even Brodeur started to slow down) and Rask waiting to steal starts, but I can understand why some would rank him high. Mabus |
donions
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Finally! Its been a long 4 years...but he's done it. This will strengthen my resolve in convincing my pool that Price is the best damn goalie in keeper-pool fantasy hockey. Way to go Handsome Carey! |
Jerry
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I hate to be negative guy but... ...how can Mason be ranked ahead of (or for that matter anywhere near) Crawford, Howard & Ward? I get that maybe the CBJ's will be better next season with Carter & Wiz. But Mason was god awful last season. CBJ will not be better than Detroit or Chicago next season (maybe never). Just a hunch on Mason, Dobber? |
lcbtd
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Nabokov Nobokov still under contract to the Isles. He will report to training camp as per Puck Daddy Radio. |
Trevor Czerwinski
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Nabokov I have seen reports that he is a UFA and others that state he is tied to last years contract because he didn't report. Some say he will report to the Isle's this year. Can someone update me on his status |
Dobber
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Playoffs? Rather than award strength for playoffs, I have now awarded strength for the team that that goaltender plays behind, and the prospects of that team maintaining/gaining/losing strength over the next three years. Getting a goaltender on a 50-win team is a real coup, and deserves to be valued accordingly. Getting a goaltender on a future strong team also deserves a bonus in keeper leagues. (translation: I did nothing different, but introduced my philosophy in a different way)  |
Stephen Kostoff
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Give the man a break He has said countless times that the "playoff" portion is only worth 9 points (I think it's 9 anyway) If the goalie is a lock for a good playoff run (IE.Luongo) take off 9 points. I think we can figure out give or take how many points Dobber has alloted for a certain goalies playoff run. End Rant |
KJ
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Time for more inclusive top lists? As always, I concur with previous ravers about Dobber Hockey. One reason the Dobber site is so successful is it's relevant to fantasy hockey managers. Other sites generate hockey news but none put the news in the context of fantasy impact like Dobber does. That said, I think these lists, especially the goalie list, needs a facelift. The fact is most of us play in a range of fantasy formats...some dynasty some one-year...some with playoffs...some with regular season only....some H2H and some rotos. Goalies can be scoring in 2-3 stat buckets...and in other leagues in 5-6 stats. In other words, these lists are not relevant in most formats. And that's contrary to Dobber's writings and efforts elsewhere on the site. To make these lists more relevant why not offer more than one per position? For example, one for one-season formats and one for dynasties. One for simple stats...one for multi-stat leagues. In a matrix...that's 4 lists for goalies alone...but that's manageable if the database creator/analyst is projecting both long and short-term stats for the same players. I  this site is ready to take these lists to that level soon. |
Zammer
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... I understand your rationale is likely based on a longstanding system of rating players for one of your longer running keeper pools. Do agree with some posters that it would create consider value to the majority if the focus moved close to the Yahoo standard categories, regular season only. I realize this might involve a complete re-design but perhaps a project to be implemented over the next 6 months. That said, I still love the site and will be paying my annual dues either way, just might be worth considering. |
Dan C
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Agree with Woodrow I love your site and your rankings but would very much prefer if you made rankings that applies to most people. ex: points only, regular season only, from now on. My keeper league wouldn't exactly like this but at least the rankings would vary much less. You really see the difference in your goalie rankings. I just think you should consider a change too. |
Woodrow
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Dobber: I do realize this is your site but I just have to ask: Why are your goalie rankings based upon "goalies that I would love to own in a keeper league that includes the postseason and where points carry over in trades, in order"? It seems to me that most keeper leagues, like probably well over 90% of them, do not use the criteria you list for your goalie list. Wouldn't it be more beneficial to the vast majority of readers here if your criteria was more in line with what most of us use in our keeper leagues? Like I said, your site, but I think most of us readers would rather see a change here... just a thought. I still use your list... I just think you should consider a change. |
Dobber
said:
|
... Khudobin - got a very favorable profile from Goldman in the Fantasy Prospects Report - you'll see when it comes out! |
Knuckles
said:
 |
khudobin Why such a massive increase? Thomas seems entrenched and Rask seems like a pretty solid back. Are you thinking Rask moves this off-season? |
Pengwin7
said:
 |
Kudos... ...for sliding Bobrockedsky and Howard down the list. Rating argument aside, there is only value in these lists if somebody understands what to do with them. The Top 300 list is a great list. I look at it and say "Yeah, I'd trade Player B for higher-ranked Player A" in my keeper pools. But the goalie list has been a disaster for the past few months. There has never been a time when I would've traded any of my four keeper goalies (Fleury, Vokoun, Crawford, Neuvirth) for Bobrovsky. Utterly confusing. At least it appears some corrections are being made. |
Dobber
said:
|
... Hiller - yes, that's why. A month later and the problem is still there. Killing his fantasy value. Lundqvist - the No.1 goalie stat, and pretty much the only goalie stat used in every single fantasy league - is wins. I also note that playoffs are a factor and it's looking like Luongo will get 16 playoff wins versus Lundqvist's 1. So there is the gap. Talent-wise, I have no opinion here. Fantasy leagues don't give points for talent. Only results. |
Massimo Cinelli
said:
 |
Lundqvist I'm having trouble digesting how Lundqvist is 16.3 points behind Luongo. Obviously, strength of team helps Luongo in the comparison, but Lundqvist has been the most consistent goaltender over the last six years. The goalie position, to me, is the most unpredictable from year to year, but you can always bank on 30+ wins, around a 2.30 GAA and .920 Sv%, and 5+ shutouts every year from Hank. Talent-wise, arguably the best goalie in the world, and the Rangers are definitely on the upswing. |
Craig K
said:
 |
... Is the Hiller drop of 10 places due to his verti-cussion issues? No matter which way I slice it in my head (team now, team going forward, SKILL LEVEL), I can't figure out how he could be 7 spots and 6.8 points (I know its not a lot, but still) lower than Mason? |
0prime
said:
 |
Keep Bob over Krejci? In a keeper league, I was going to keep Krejci but now I'm not so sure! Do I keep Bob?????? |
Dobber
said:
|
... A couple of points - and thanks for the feedback, I did some adjustments in those cases where you are absolutely right. 1. I wouldn't trade Schneider for Thomas in a million years. Schneider will be a star for most of the next decade or longer. Thomas will be stuck in a 1a/1b situation for the next two years at least, whereas Schneider will get out of Vancouver in under a year. 2. Keep in mind fellas, that if Jimbob Ray is 6th at 137.8 and the guy you favor, Tommy Newshoes, is 11th at 135.2, please get over it. If one of them farts the wrong way those two points are made up. It's just too close to call. You need the points this year, you need the potential for points in the future, and with goalies it's pretty difficult. |
Pengwin7
said:
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re: Howard / @MC 6. General talent level, based on scouting reports and statistical performance. (Mass: What were you saying about reading the instructions again?) |
Trevor Czerwinski
said:
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... Excellent list with a few exceptions. Loungo #1 is fine - majority starts, long term contract, go to guy in playoffs. Schneider # 11 (excellent young goaltender) barring injury to Lou will not start more than 40% reg season, will not start in any playoff game and even if they split 50-50 how can they be 1 and 11. Schneider should technically be ranked around the same as Bernier or if you feel his upside is so high Luongo should not be # 1 |
Massimo Cinelli
said:
|
Re: Howard / @Pengwin7 Apparently you missed the part about how these rankings only take wins (regular season + playoffs) into account, so your little "GAA" and "Sv%" rants have no validity in the argument. Just like when you're a child in school about to take an exam, it's important to read the instructions at the top.  |
Pengwin7
said:
|
Howard 1. Howard is 34th in GAA right now. 2. Howard is 30th in SV% right now. 3. Nicklas Lidstrom might retire this summer. *What rank should this add up to? (Side Note: It would be a sad, sad thing if Lidstrom, currently -2, posts his first ever "minus" season because of Howard's poor goaltending season) |
rticinelli
said:
|
Jimmy HO With Howard signing a 2-year extension in Motown, I gotta think this will move him back up into the top 3 with an overall rating very much in the Luongo/Fleury range. To all the naysayers, remember that this list is for a league that counts WINS only, and includes playoffs. That's why guys like Lundqvist and Miller, who are very likely 2/3 of the top 3 goalies in the league along with Luongo, are ranked where they are. For this ranking, it's all about the wins. |
clayton
said:
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Bob and more all due respect, but i'm sorry, these rankings are absolutely awful. you gotta rework your criteria Dobber. it's just not working. |
Jerry
said:
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rank rankings How on earth can Schneider be ranked #11 ahead of the likes of Rinne, Hiller, Thomas... When I see Bob at #3 I think these rankings must weigh heavily on this season but then you have Schneider ahead of Thomas?!?!? |
lanky522
said:
 |
Re: Booooooo-ob I couldn't agree more. I haven't even checked the goalie rankings much lately because I find them to be way to transient to be worth anything at all. BOB at #3 is absolutely ludicrous lol. Sure he's good. Sure he's on a good team. Sure he's young. But is he really better to own than Carey Price? Lundqvist? Miller? Rinne? Please. That's just ridiculous. If these rankings are really an indication of general trade value in keeper leagues that count playoffs, etc. etc. etc. There's ABSOLUTELY no reason for a guy like BOB to be ranked above many of the other guys mentioned. - How many games has he played in the playoffs before? Oh that's right... none. - How many seasons has he been in the league? Oh that's right... less than 1. - How many goalies has Philidelphia gone through in the last several years? mmm... I actually don't have an answer to this... I can't count that high. - Who's grandmother could win games with similar peripheral stats as BOB on a team as good as philly? Everyone's. I'd really prefer these rankings to be less of the "flavor of the week" sort of deal they've become. A good goalie is a good goalie is a good goalie. He shouldn't be pushed down in a keeper rankings list just because someone is doing "well right now." Maybe in one year league rankings... but not in keeper rankings. my 0.02 |
Pengwin7
said:
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Booooooo-ob I've been a firm backer of these rankings as long as I've checked them, but Bob at #3 is too much. If you look at Bob/Bouch's stats, they are eerily similar to Neuvy/Varly's stats. Bouch has better GAA & SV%, but PHI has its best win% with Bob in net. Varly has better GAA & SV%, but WAS has its best win% with Neuvy in net. PHI is really pushed for cap space. Per capgeek, they have $57.4 of $59.4 committed to 17 players for 11-12. That leaves only about $2m for 5-6 skaters. Bob's $1.75m cap hit may be critical dollars if PHI can keep Boucher at $1m. In general, I think PHI has been feasting of a weak Eastern Conference the same way that NJ/Kovy have been lately. WAS, PIT, NJ have all been banged up/underachieving this year. NYI is improving. These will all take wins away from PHI, who would be wise not to play a kid goalie more than 55-60 games/season. Long, story short: Bob's Win% won't continue at his current GAA/SV%. The East has been banged up and will improve. I think Bob should be pegged around the same mark as Corey Crawford & Neuvirth... which is 20th. So - you are well off with your eval of Bob. IMO.  |
Ross The Boss Palmer
said:
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Ray Ray Happy to see Ray Ray (Emery) at 93. He has kept things interesting in the past, whether it was on the ice, or losing it off the ice! I've always been a fan. |
El Caballo
said:
 |
Bobrovsky.... there is no way he should be in the top 3. this happens all the time with Philly. they are so good and so they make their young goaltenders look like studs. look at Boucher and Cechmanek. each one of them was supposed to be the future. Bobrovsky is by no means a franchise goalie for this team, he has no right being in the top 10 in this list IMO... wouldn't be surprised if hes a backup next season to someone they sign, or splits starts like he has this year.... i think you're jumpin the gun on him! |
Stephen Kostoff
said:
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Lundy There is no way I trade Mr.Consistancy(Lundqvist), away for Bobrovsky,Howard, or Fleury. To be honest I don't even think it's close. Wins are only 1 stat. |
faj
said:
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...JB said: I know its likely been said before, but I absolutely agree with this, for all of the rankings. |
JB
said:
 |
No playoffs I'm sure this has plenty of value to everyone in keeper pools that include playoffs....but I think this only applies to a small percentage of pools. Is there any chance of a revised list, without playoff considerations? Awesome rankings regardless. |
Dobber
said:
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... How many wins a goalie will end up with this season bears on the rankings. So Rinne can't move up into the Top 3. This is a forecast of trade value, and from a high-level standpoint, poolies won't pay as much for a goalie who ends up with 33 wins as opposed to if he made it to 40. That being said, he moved up the charts - don't forget some of you guys are looking at this on Feb 19, which means you are looking at rankings that are a month old. |
angelofharlem
said:
 |
Rinne Gotta agree with GB. I've never understood why Rinne doesn't get more love in these rankings. As an owner in a keeper league, there's only 2-3 goalies in the league I'd even consider trading him for. |
Ben C Jackson
said:
 |
Pavelec or Vokoun? (Keeper) I have 1 spot for a goalie on my keeper league. After this season, barring any unforseen injuries, who should I keep as a goalie: Pavelec or Vokoun? According to this list its easily Pavelec but Im still unsure. Is it safe to assume another jump in production from the young Pavelec? Is his starting spot secure? Should I try to protect both these goalies? Any advice would be helpful, thanks guys. |
GB
said:
 |
Rinne? Rinne at #21? Below guys like Schneider, Mason and Rask? I realize his offense is not as good as some of those teams and he missed some time with injury, but NSH plays a very solid D system and Rinne is now #2 in GAA and SV% in the NHL after last night's win. The guy is a stud and certainly deserves to be ranked higher... |
Chad
said:
 |
Re: Playoff rankings You could just add a column with each players playoff rating, that way we could just subtract the playoff rating from the normal rating to figure out the rankings for non-playoff leagues |
Dobber
said:
|
... Tim - thank you Chop Chop - Nabby is 89 Jake - no probs, and Smith takes another big hit this month... Rusty - me either, but his pace and stats keep him up there, even with injury factor Aaron - Now. Given time, everything falls into place Todd and Jerry - I did do a poll and yes, this helps 35% of my users and 65% it's no help. But I'm not just adjusting (five measly ratings points) for playoffs - I think goalies on QUALITY teams need to be adjusted regardless. So ignore the playoff factor - just the goalie being on such a strong team makes him more valuable. Don't think of it as a playoff rating adjustment, think of it as a "on a good team" rating adjustment. Silvio - he's off the list now, but still owned in my one league so there is still some tiny value there. Frozen - thank you |
frozenpools
said:
 |
... Good list! My keep league has playoffs so I like having it. But the fact that goalie stats are already based primarily on wins, the playoff weight for a goalie is a bit redundant. Personally I like it just moreso for D and F. An extra column with rankings with playoff and without would be ideal ... sortable of course |
Silvio Zgraggen
said:
 |
HUET still at # 73 ??! What are the odds you are putting on the 35 year old , loaned to Fribourg Gottéron in the Swiss A League, to make it back to the NHL ? While putting up respectable stats (26GP 2.60 GAA and .929 which is 2nd best in the league)i strongly doubt that he will ever play another game in NHL in this life. |
Jerry
said:
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no playoffs, please Agree 100% with Todd. Dobber, you've got to get rid of the playoff factor in all these lists. It's just not relevant for the great majority of your users. Do a poll on it if you don't think so. |
Todd
said:
 |
fail This list always sucks due to the playoff aspect. 95% of peoples fantasy leagues dont involve the nhl playoffs. if you include them you basically only pick the starters on the teams that are favoured going into the season and thats such a lame way to look at things. It's seriously time for an overhaul to the stipulations and dump the playoff involvement. |
Aaron Gaither
said:
 |
Hiller When is this guy going to be considered a top 20 goalie? He's having a Ryan Miller season in terms of the quality of shots he faces and the average defense in front of him. |
Rusty Pickles
said:
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... Lehtonen at 11, couldn't pay me to have him as my goalie...that is why you don't always listen to formulas lol |
Jake
said:
 |
Smith/List Hey Dobber, Thanks for the feedback. I wasn't criticizing, just trying to see your side of the story. I've watched him the past 2 years and has been awful. But if Goldman and yourself see him as possibly snatching the #1, then maybe there was something I was missing. Thanks again for the response and it's another great list. . . but Mason at 17. . . j/k.  |
Tim
said:
 |
Thanks It's very easy to criticise. I have been guilty myself. I tried to compile a list myself one day and got a better sense of how incredibly hard this is to do. Keep up the great work. Still my favorite site to read about Hockey. |
Dobber
said:
|
... Thanks for the awesome feedback. There was a mistake last month in the formula in that it pulled data from an older template. It only impacted one minor variable, but it was enough to make a few shifts in where the goalies were ranked in some cases. James - Holtby was a victim of the above problem. He's back now. Jake - Smith is out of the Top 30 now. I had faith, at the time, that he would take over No.1 in Tampa - and he kind of has, with an improved game. But nonetheless he needed to be dropped. Jake II - That earlier response was after last season. At the time, his only issue was injuries - but that has impacted his overall play now. He really was a good goalie at one time. He played Dan Ellis right off the Dallas roster and he played Marty Turco out of the No.1 job and eventually forced a trade. I don't know how an injury will impact a goalie, but I try to do these rankings assuming they bounce back to their old form. In this case, it was wrong. In the case of say Carey Price, it was right. Ballsakic - sorry big guy. Thomas/Smith was a victim of that formula problem. Fixed this month. Matt - the November list was terrible...as I'm starting to see from these comments. I blame my variable issue. KJ - a month later and Price is still the No.1 goalie to own in keeper leagues. I wouldn't trade him straight up for any other goalie in the world in my league. Thanks for the kind words though! tradejunkie - I try to respond to all comments in each of my rankings just before I post the new ones. So the explanation comes maybe a month after your reaction to the last rankings. PS - Lehtonen still surging... Chews - Ha. And - Ha. Chris - thank you! Mabus - as I said above, yes I could trade Price straight up for any goalie in a keeper league, but I would not do that in a million years. The Golden Boy in Montreal will be on my team for years and get me 35 to 40 wins per year along with some Vezinas. And no, I'm not a Montreal fan. frozen - Elliott and Smith bumped. Backstrom slight up and Hiller same. Renegade - Your opinion but offer me Miller for Price in my keeper and throw in a first round pick and a decent prospect and you still get the big "N-O". Pengwin - thank you |
Mabus
said:
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... I agree Pengwin7, it's a solid list. I would make a couple of tweaks. I think almost all of the top 9 are interchangeable, so I'd move the points down for Price and Howard, and increase the points for Miller and Rinne. I like Halak and Howard more than Price, but as long as all three are similar in points, I wouldn't nitpick. I also think Miller/Rinnne are up in the top tier, not down in the second tier with Anderson, Quick and the rest of the solid goalies with question marks. I would also bump up Ward. I also don't understand how Boston has two goalies above either of Washington's goalies - both teams seem like perennial powerhouses, but even if you are a Boston fan, the difference in wins must be negligible. If you are a Washington fan, you probably have a strong argument that they will win more games each year for the foreseeable future. On that same subject, it also seems odd to see Chicago's top two goalies be 37th and 51st when Ottawa manages to have 3 goalies above 37th. In my 20 team Dynasty league I own Neuvirth and Halak. In my 9 team keeper, I own Halak and Miller. In the 1 year Dobber pool, I took Halak 7th overall (after only Miller and Luongo for goalies). Needless to say, I've got a lot of faith in Halak, and I still like him better than Price. The gap is probably narrower than it's been for a while though. Solid list, but I'd make those few tweaks. |
Pengwin7
said:
|
Good List I like this list & the changes. No goalie has a lock on being a #1 overall these days - but Price is as good a choice as any... especially with limited competition behind him. I picked Howard to get the most points in any W(2)SO(3) league this year. But I think Lidstrom retiring will have a HUGE impact on DET & Howard. I think Tier I should be 8 of the top 9... excluding Anderson. I give the list an A. |
Renegade
said:
 |
Chris Read Chris, Price is a questionable number 1 goalie in the world because he has had a troubled past, and while he has amazing potential, he has only played great in 20 games this year. Compared to players like Miller, Lundqvist, Bryzgalov, who have shown they can play well in this league, I just don't see it yet. These are keeper league rankings. I would rather own Miller than Price. |
frozenpools
said:
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... My 2 keeper goalies are Halak and Howard so I love the rankings! But Id bump Brian Elliott and Mike Smith and up Hiller and Backstrom. |
Mabus
said:
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... LOL - so according to this list you should now be able to trade Price straight up for any goalie in the league. If that's the case, I'd say to sell high. Those of you that took the off-season risk, your bet has paid off, but only if you sell today. Mabus |
Chris Read
said:
 |
Price I don't agree with the whole list but I dare someone to do a list of 100 anything and have even 1 person agree. As for Price, why shouldn't he be number 1? Have any of you watched him play this year? Square to the shooter at all times, calm, composed and amazing stats on an average team. Sounds right to me. |
Chews
said:
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Urgent Security Alert Dobber, I think somebody hacked your site and messed with the goalie rankings. Just thought you should know. |
tradejunkie
said:
 |
Goldie Would love to hear Justin Goldman's thoughts on the shake-up in the list... Also quite surprised by Elliott and Lehtonen surges... Suggestion for Dobber: Maybe when you update the list, you could just jot down some ramblings to go along with the major moves? Would prevent 90% of the "WTF" kind of statements... |
KJ
said:
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Dobber doesn't hit the mark at times.... ...so what? He's entitled to his opinions. That's why I frequent this site. For example, he's had a man-crush for Price for a long time so when Price finally has a few good games then Dobber places him at the top. Is Dobber right? No. But it's his site and his opinion. |
Matt Dobson
said:
 |
Not Digging The New List Hey Dobber, I have to agree with the last couple of posters on here. I'm a big fan of your site and info, but I do have to question some of the changes this month. Like others have posted already, Mike Smith has no business being in the top 20. He's being out played by Ellis in TB. Also, I don't understand how Neuvirth has moved back 4 positions, given that he is tied with Price for the most wins. Granted his GAA and SV% are pretty avg. but his numbers are still ahead of guys like Bryz, Lundy,and Lou. Not sure how your formula works but I do have to question it to some degree considering that M.Leighton has moved up 8 positions this month while injured and not playing?? With that being said, I'm still a big fan and love your site. Please keep up the good work. ~Dobers |
Ballsakic
said:
 |
You call these a new list I love ya Dobbs but I could have done better with my eyes closed. Mike Smith ahead of Thomas lol Maybe age has something to do with this. |
Jake
said:
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Mike Smith cont. . . So I just read a reply you had a few posts down where you said that Smith's only negative is injuries. Dobber, with all due respect, do you watch Tampa games? He was awful last year and he's awful this year. His only negatives are that he can't stop a puck. I'm just curious if you poll TB fans about who you think their starting goalie should be, I'd be shocked if Smith got 30% of the votes. Sorry for the long rant, but he just sticks out in that great list of yours. |
Jake
said:
|
Mike Smith How in God's name is he in your top 20? I don't care about Howard being #2 somehow and what not, but Mike Smith has done NOTHING this year except he was outplayed by Ellis. Even if Ellis played poorly, Smith is not an option for any fantasy owner. Please explain how he's a top 20 goalie in your format. Thanks! |
James Smith
said:
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Holtby Dobber, what happened to Holtby? He's not even in the top 100 now. Have you seen something in his game that has changed your once high opinion of him? |
Karl
said:
 |
Howard How are Varlamov and Mason ahead of Howard. Looking at the criteria for ranking Howard will win more games He plays for a perennial Stanley Cup contender Is the undisputed #1 Is not injury prone The only criteria that Varlamov and Mason have ahead of him is that they are younger and Howard is still quite young. Howard is like the Rodney Dangerfield of goalies, never getting the respect he deserves. |
Dobber
said:
|
Miller Time Does he beat him in Playoff wins? In these rankings, the rating of the goaltender goes up by as much as 7 or 8 points based on playoff appeal. Miller would be around 3. Fleury around 7.5. The "difference" (if you can call it that) between the two on this chart was 0.4 as of September update. Which brings me to my next point - players + or - 10.0 ratings points on this chart are so close to being equal that I refuse to be drawn into an argument about it (oops, I was just sucked in - but that's it! LOL) |
Miller Time
said:
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Rankings You HAVE to get your head out between your legs and put Miller ahead of Marc Andre Fleury. He beats him in every single category even wins. |
Ian Lederer
said:
 |
Long-term goalies... Hi Dobber, First timer here...wondering if you can help me out. I am in a keeper pool and looking to draft a long-term goalie (as I currently have Lundqvist, Price, Quick, and Pavelec). Who would you recommend of these goalies available... Robin Lehner, Chet Pickard, Matt Hackett, Jack Campbell, Calvin Pickard, and Alex Stalock Please let me know the order in which you would rank these goalies (and any insight). Thanks, Ian |
Luc
said:
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Goalies in Tampa Don't you think that Dan Ellis will take the #1 job in Tampa instead of sharing times with M.Smith. Ellis did not too bad in Nashville and M. Smith didn't show anything interesting. |
Isle B.
said:
 |
Brodeur is way too low on this list I realize he's 38, but Brodeur has over twice as many career wins as Rask, Anderson, Rinne, Quick, Mason, Price and Varlamov combined, put up better numbers than all of them save Anderson last season, and is as firmly entrenched as a starter as any goalie in the league. He also plays for a better team than any of those six, except for Varlamov, who has yet to prove that he can get through an NHL season. |
ted duf
said:
 |
adjustable rankings ? Hi Dobber, are your rankings built strictly on formulas based on the criteria you listed at the top of the article ? Or is there an element subjectivity or of "gut feel" to it as well ? If they are based on hard numbers only, I would love to see how the rankings would shift around if you added options to remove carry over points or base ranking on regular season only, and even base it off other categories like GAA and SV%. Gee, I'm not asking for much here, eh ?!? Really enjoy your rankings, even if they don't quite apply to my league I still find them interesting. Thanks for putting it out there for us ! |
Mabus
said:
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Price is Overrated Yet Again "Price was gold in keeper leagues two years ago" What was he ranked going into the season (wish I had it saved)? Was that worth more or less than the 23 regular season wins he put up (I understand that your settings don't consider his 2.83 GAA or .905 Save Percentage) plus his zero playoff wins? Similar color to fantasy gold, but smells a lot worse. I'll stand by the fact that you have him overrated for 3 straight years. Mabus |
sentium
said:
|
... Sorry, you're out to lunch with that argument. Why is Sateri that high up then? He's lower on the Sharks depth chart and does not have a clear higher upside AND is a lot farther from the NHL time-wise.. Also, both Bishop and Allen in the 50/60s and either of them is 4th and Allen only arguably has higher upside than Stalock while being on a traditionally worse team? Zatkoff? Keetley? Cann? Toskala? Who the hell is Kangas? Larsson with a two-year deal in Sweden and falling on the Wings depth chart? Give me a break. Nope, you're just wrong here. Put Stalock where he belongs. |
Dobber
said:
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... Some mistakes that I caught this month (where were you guys??!?!?!!!! ): Dubnyk - how many months have neglected/missed him? Rynnas - deserves to be on the list |
Dobber
said:
|
... Mabus - if you're sayin I overvalue Price for the third straight year...then that means that you were correct last year, and incorrect the year before. Since Price was gold in keeper leagues two years ago. So I guess this year will be the rubber match. As for Howard, you are correct. But if I owned any of the goalies above him on this list, I would not trade them straight up for Howard. I think you would agree too. |
Dobber
said:
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... BGJ - when the list was last updated, Niitty was undisputed as San Jose's No.1. Yes, over Kipper. To dispute that is laughable. Now with Niemi there, it obviously changes. And I would not trade Price for Kipper. Don't be silly. Kipper's SP has gone steadily downhill for five years now. But thank you for coming out. Irvin - I'll investigate, but I don't think Mike will get any starts this year, or ever. He deserves to though, I agree. |
Irvin Penner
said:
 |
Mike Brodeur Do you really believe Mike Brodeur should not be on this list? I would see him in the 65 - 70 range. Why do you not have him here? Just asking, knowing that we all value players differently. Thanks |
Mabus
said:
|
Greiss Why no love for Greiss? Backing up Niittymaki seems like the dream situation to me. With a career high of 52 starts in one season, it seems like there is at least a reasonable chance Greiss could get quite a bit of playing time. If he's successful, he's in the dream spot. I'd also like to hear the justification on Howard. It seems to me like he's on a great team, is coming off a solid season, and has no competition for starts. Looks like for the third straight year I get to say that you are overvaluing Price. |
mike hess
said:
 |
Neimi Very hard to see Neimi at number 9. The team if will be with has such an impact on goalie ranking. If he went to Anaheim he would have a Hiller like ranking, to San Jose a Nittymaki one. that said, Jimmy Howard headed for 40 wins and the playoffs and not in the top 10.... |
Dobber
said:
|
... I think Smith will be the starter over Ellis. Just my opinion. He beat Ellis out of a job in Dallas and sent him packing. Ellis' played behind the best defensive team in the NHL last year. Smith's only weakness is injury...otherwise I'd have him even higher. Ellis and stat categories are misleading - Nashville will make a star out of any goalie. Brodeur slipped because he won't get the W's that he has in the past. Fewer games, weaker team. Varlamov - both. Injuries and competition holds his value down. Hiller - I predict a terrible year for Anaheim |
Puckhead
said:
 |
Brodeur... With the D men that Lou brought in via free agency, i expected Brodeur to move up the rankings. Is his fall due simply to his age, and the yearly discussion of 'he has to slow down at some point?' |
Chewd
said:
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Ellis I agree with Ian: "smith ahead of ellis??????????" Even if Smith is ranked ahead of Ellis, I can't justify the wide spread between them. Ellis is superior in most statistical categories and given Smith's injury history (not to mention Smith has zero playoff experience) the gap between them should be a lot closer. |
clayton
said:
|
... Dobber-- Is Varlamov kept out of the top ten moreso because of his proneness to injury, or because of competition from Neuvirth? I have always noted that you are very high on Neuvirth however I have never seen him play so I do not know how to compare him to Varlamov, who I think is very very talented. I guess my question is, what is it that is keeping Varlamov out of the top 5? Is he not the goalie of the future for Washington, capable of handling 65-70 starts on a regular basis? In my opinion, he's a much better option than Halak is going forward. thanks! |
Santo aka Ross10019
said:
 |
... Dobber, very happy to see Lundy rise to No 2, any particular reason in your mind? The Rangers D hasn't gotten all that better. Then there's Hiller, a little surprised that he remains behind guys like Quick (given the Bernier risk), Anderson (Colorado is in my view a poorer team than Anaheim) and Elliott (Leclaire, while injury prone, is still lurking). Obviously I know that Elliott and Hiller are so close as to be interchangeable, but not the case with Quick or Anderson. I imagine that suspect Anaheim D is part of your reasoning, but Hiller's numbers have typically been great hence my question. Thanks as always for your hard work Dobber! |
KJ
said:
|
DP Hmm, DP should be a lot lower. I couldn't trade him for the next 10-15 below him in my league. His credibility in fantasy leagues is completely vanished. |
Dobber
said:
|
... Larry If you shopped Roloson to me in any of my keeper leagues I would laugh at you. Even if you asked me to take him for free. I don't care about 20 wins. 20 wins won't get on my pro team. Or any pro team in fantasy hockey. And after next year, how will he do? Retire? It's keeper league rankings. Tim Thank you! Rad 23rd isn't high. Barely a second pro goalie in most keepers. And even as a "backup" he'll still get 25 wins...and he's a Niemi injury away from getting 35 wins. He has value, come on. |
Tim
said:
 |
... Hats off for doing these. You're never going to have 100% aggreement. I can't imagine how hard it would be to put this together. |
Larry
said:
|
... Roloson at #84? he maybe old,but I'd bet he gets more starts then Dipietro. Huet will be lucky to be in the NHL next 2 years (more due to his contract than his talent) |
Rad64
said:
 |
... Hey Dobbs, How can Huet still be ranked so high? He didn't get into a single play-off game and I can't see Chicago playing him over Niemi next season. At this point I can't imagine he has more value than any starter in the league. What gives? Rad |
Dobber
said:
|
... woo woo - he has to get pointed out to me by a disgruntled reader . Stalock has been properly adjusted befitting his season. playoffs - will always be a factor because they are a factor in my keeper league. Since there are 1000s of ways to run a keeper league (trust me, I've seen that many sets of rules it seems) that I can't please every league. So if I'm going to please a league at all, it may as well be my own. Playoff factor is only 0 to 7 rating points, so you can manually adjust downward (by zero if the team is the Leafs, or by 7 if your team is PIT or CHI) |
sentium
said:
|
... I agree about Stalock. He's a horse and his coaches have been lauding him all year long, saying how he almost always makes the right save at the right time even though he might not have the very best GAA or Save% numbers. He gets the most important thing: the wins. I picked him up a while ago in my keeper league and I have no idea what Sexsmith is doing on this list. For years it was apparent that his success in the WHL was more because he was on a super good team and not because of his skill. Now that he got to the pro game he really crapped the bed. |
WooWoo
said:
 |
... I understand that inclusion criteria is not always obvious but how can Alex Stalock not be on this list? He LED the AHL in victories this season as a rookie after dominating in his final year in the NCAA, breaking the All-Time rookie mark and finishing in the top 12/13 (I forget which) best win numbers ever! The fact that his team used him as a workhorse tells you how highly they valued him - he's the best kept secret in our organisation and IMHO, much, much better than Sexsmith who you have in your list. A 4th round draft pick, he was hardly a reach (5 rounds ahead of Evgeni Nabokov, I might add!) and if he's heading for San Jose, you'd think he's going to see a fair few 'W's down the road. Nabokov is coming to the end of his career and I personally consider Stalock much more of an heir-apparent than Thomas Greiss, due respect. This kid has steady No.1 potential but he's never been a glamour pick - nobody knows anywhere near enough about him. I'd be advising everyone in a deep keeper league to check him out. So Dobber, what more does he have to do to get some recognition in your list? How the AHL wins leader can't be ahead of Eddie Lack confuses me - surely he must be behind Luongo, Raycroft and Schneider? |
dean little
said:
 |
... "Dean - I pride myself in my "stable" rankings. My No.1 criticism of all of my rankings is that I move players up and down too slowly. So your comment is quite ironic. To answer your question - yes, Theodore had more value in my league than Ward. There were teams competing at the top who needed a goalie for the stretch run and they needed a goalie for the playoffs. Ward was of no use to them. So 50% of the teams in my league were out of the mix when it comes to the Ward market. when the Caps are out, Ward will then have more value. " I totally with the above rationale, if it were one year league, but even teams competiting for first, theodore is basically a one year rental, as his future is uncertain. He didnt register a playoff win, so if someone traded ward for theodore, im sure they'd be kicking themselves right now. for example i have huet on my team, he is ranked 15 on your list, which should make me feel good about owning him, but i dont think there is a chance in hell i could get anything for him in the summer. heck he could be buried in the minors next year. |
bball
said:
 |
... The playoff issue has been around for a while. As Dobber has pointed out, the playoff rankings are minimal. Looking at the top 10, all of the goalies are in the playoffs (except Lundy). Thinking about it, this makes a lot of sense as the best goalies are going to help their teams into the playoffs whereas the goalies that are not quite up to par are not going to make the playoffs. I mean, look at Varlamov. He is not among the top tier of goalies this go around even though he is probably going to be the man for Washington down the stretch and they should go a lot further then Lundqvist will with NYR. He is so low because his performance to date is not quite where it needed to be. These rankings seem pretty solid. I mean, you can argue that Luongo might not be number one and be upset that Miller is not in the top 3 but anyone in the top 5-8 are going to be pretty much interchangeable anyway without giving up too much long term. |
Darren
said:
 |
... I think dean's makes some excellent points. I really don't see why the tenders should include playoff's in their rankings. Most pools I have been involved in do not include tenders and if so its marginal to a tender's OA keeper value. |
Dobber
said:
|
... Dean - I pride myself in my "stable" rankings. My No.1 criticism of all of my rankings is that I move players up and down too slowly. So your comment is quite ironic. To answer your question - yes, Theodore had more value in my league than Ward. There were teams competing at the top who needed a goalie for the stretch run and they needed a goalie for the playoffs. Ward was of no use to them. So 50% of the teams in my league were out of the mix when it comes to the Ward market. when the Caps are out, Ward will then have more value. It's a tough balance - the here and now vs. the long-term. But the here and now does have an affect on keeper rankings. Dave - Huet is indeed down a few pegs. Alex - rankings take into account Wins and Shutouts, both this year and future potential, only, as far as "hard stats" are concerned. So Fleury could have a 5.00, and 0.750 numbers, as long as he gets 40 wins many league formats will see him near the top of the ranks. (I exaggerate to make my point). I do use my opinion in general talent level, but SP and GAA only influence that, it is not used as a hard statistical variable. Ed - Lehner is on this list and has been for months |
dean little
said:
 |
... only problem i have with the rankings is they seem to flucuate too often, i could see if it were a one season ranking list but a keeper list should have some stability. how does varlamov go from top 10 all season to below huet? Huet may have more value this season(due to counting playoffs) but there is no way his *keeper* value should surpass varalomov... and just because ward is injured, does that mean theodore carries more trade value than him in a *keeper* league? guys like theodore and huet could be on crappy teams next year and due to their age, should have their value decreased, but they out rank some solid young talent that is just as proven. |
Alex
said:
 |
Fleury Dobber, I still don't understand why Fleury is ranked so high. You say that playoffs don't make a big contribution so how can you rank him #3 when Brodeur, Miller, Lundqvist, and Bryzgalov all have better numbers. We are talking about a guy with a 2.83 career GAA and 0.907 SV%???? IMHO he should be below the guys I just mentioned. |
jamesdmack
said:
 |
Hedberg? You know what trouble I's talkin' 'bout. I's talking 'bout Mr. Johan Hedberg. He'll be comin' to Atlanta when he gets his leave, and you sittin' there waitin' for him, just like a spider. He belongs on this list! |
Ed
said:
 |
... It's about time you put in Robin Lehner. Justin has had him the lists of NHL prospect goalies, since he started in October. Great work Dobber! Keep up the good work. |
Dobber
said:
|
... bball - you'll have to adjust according to your league. I cover the majority of leagues with my rankings, other than the playoff influence - which is really so small that it hardly makes an impact. If you've seen as many sets of rules for fantasy hockey as I have, you would realize just what a tiny drop in the bucket your league rules really are - seriously Dave - I try not to knee-jerk. On January 20th (the update you were commenting on 19 days later) Halak was hardly established enough as a starter to warrant any higher. Keep in mind that January 20 is barely half a season. A month later and he has moved up quite a bit as we can be more confident that he will be a starter somewhere next year. Most leagues have little use for a platoon goalie - they need to be proven starters day in and day out. |
sentium
said:
|
... Way down at 23? In his current situation, that's as good as it gets for him. Let him become an actual starter first before you hype him to extremes. |
bball
said:
|
Alternate Article Dobber, Might you be willing to do some sort of an article that would rank the goalies based on everything that you have in your criteria EXCEPT the point trading and the playoff criteria? Frankly, these rankings do nothing for me and they really don't do a lot for people that play in a standard yahoo league where the playoffs occur the last couple of weeks in the season and points do not get traded. It would seem that the playoffs are a pretty significant portion of your ratings at this point as you have a guy like Ward ranked so low when I think that most people would be willing to give up a guy like Huet or Nemmi for Ward. But I could be very wrong in that assessment. Something like playoff potential and existing statics are a lot easier to factor into a deal (and therefore adjust a list) then they are to extract and reconstruct this list. And in including team playoff potential, you significantly over-value guys based solely on their team. For example, Nabby is an awesome goalie and should be top 10 for sure. But what if after this season, he jumps ship and signs with Toronto? Now I think that you would agree that Toronto is not quite an elite team and might not make the playoffs on an annual basis (although, they DO play in the East) but Nabby's value then plummets because his team is no longer a lock to make the playoffs. Now I understand that your ability to see the future is only so strong but Nabby is still the same player. His stats might dip a bit but in this setup, he would drop significantly in the rankings when in all reality, he is still going to be a VERY good keeper option. This list would seem to be more valuable for a one year league rather then a keeper. Just some food for thought Thank you |
dean little
said:
|
... I just recently acquired Huet in a trade, and i see he has been bumped into your top 10 list, but he seems like he has some real stinkers here and there, and niemi has looked pretty darn good this season. should huet owners worry about his keeper value past this season, and is there any fear of niemi stealing the #1 job for the playoffs? my keeper team has had a poor regular season, so im looking towards the playoffs to salvage this season. |
Dobber
said:
|
... It was the fact that I missed adjusting him in November and again in December, Tim. It's a correction. But love the sarcasm, thank you. All-Star game, that's priceless! |
Tim
said:
|
Interesting... Just curious as to what event(s) in the last 31 days deemed a 30 point increase in Salak’s value. It couldn’t have been the fact that he missed 19 games with an injury. It probably wasn’t the fact that Salak GAA has increased while his SV% decreased. I’m fairly certain Florida still retains his rights. Perhaps it was his play in the All-Star game. |
Dobber
said:
|
... Guys - if you strike "gold" as a prospect in Florida, the prize is 30 or 35 wins and a playoff round. If you strike "gold" as a prospect in Pittsburgh, the prize is 50 wins, an NHL record, and a Stanley Cup. So Thiessen with a 1% shot at making it big, or Salak with a very promising shot - say 65% - at making it big...makes things a lot closer than you think in terms of value. You also need to look at the team and the end result of "success". |
Tim
said:
|
It's all good... I'll start by saying the Wharfrat is a big fan of the Dobster. I've been tuning in for years. Just as you called MALKIN would go nuts, you are ahead of the curve with predicting most situations in this League. That is why I am a fan and will continue to be a fan. Now that being said, it's time to Cowboy-Up and say Salak should have moved up in the rankings. Yes Markstrom may be better, but that does not take away from Salak's genious. True tallent will find away to produce. And for the record, you didn't introduce me to Salak. |
Go Big or....
said:
 |
... "But let's be realistic - the best goalie not in the NHL is Markstrom. So even if Salak is the second best goalie not in the NHL, how quickly will we see dividends? Not this year. It's a Bryzgalov/Giguere/Hiller situation brewing and it won't resolve itself for several years." True, Salak will be competing against Markstrom but could you not make a very similar case for many of the prospects on this list that rank much higher than Salak? Why don't we use Thiessen as an example, he's behind one of the best young goalies in the NHL and will have to compete with Curry for a backup spot. I'm not claiming to have all the answers here I'm just trying to figure out if there's something i'm missing because being behind a great young goalie on the depth charts doesn't seem to have hurt the ranking of other goalies on your list (eg, Schneider). Unless there are some strong reports emerging that he'll be traded I don't see him paying dividends for years either. Merry Christmas! |
Dobber
said:
|
... Also - you know this better than anyone Lanky - please don't complain about two players within five rating points of each other. The difference is so insignificant that it can go either way and not worth a discussion |
Dobber
said:
|
... Salak - hey, just remember who introduced him to your world! Though I'm sure some of you got the name from other sources, others heard it on DobberHockey first But let's be realistic - the best goalie not in the NHL is Markstrom. So even if Salak is the second best goalie not in the NHL, how quickly will we see dividends? Not this year. It's a Bryzgalov/Giguere/Hiller situation brewing and it won't resolve itself for several years. Price vs. Mason - Lanky, you're preaching to the choir. But that's precisely why the list is not "reactionary" (to respond to another comment). Six weeks ago I couldn't trade Price for a bucket of pucks, and Mason was still the golden boy of fantasy hockey. I won't be swapping the two back and forth every month because they take turns getting hot. But you are right - I love Price far more than Mason and always have. But my rankings are built for gradual shifts and not knee-jerks. |
Go Big or.....
said:
 |
Salak? After following this list for a few years I am left wondering if it's not a little too reactionary. Guys shoot up this list in a flash once given a role in the big show (eg Jimmy Howard) but sometimes great prospects toil away with little or no movement even though the astute fantasy GM should be all over them (eg Salak). I guess this is just a caution for any GM's in deep pools looking for goalie prospects or trying to gauge fair value in goalie trades. If someone offers you Bernier for Howard take it! If someone offers you Salak for Bishop/ Montoya/ Johnson/ Lalande/ Thiessen (I think that's enough)......take it! Last but not least, if someone offers you Osgood for Roloson, hell yeah, take it! i'm not saying the list isn't useful, I look forward to it every month Cheers |
Bomm Bastic
said:
 |
Lighten the Hell Up Do NOT go "PC" on me. If you can't handle a little smack talk then go sit at the kiddie table and let the adults have some fun. That said....gotta question: I'm in a 12 team/24-man roster dynasty league. I own Nabakov, Quick, and Pavelec. Nabakov and Quick are #1 & #2, respectively. Pavelec is merely a long term keeper at this point. I was thinking of dropping Pavelec and picking up Greiss of waivers. Appreciate thoughts re who has the better long-term upside Greiss or Pavelec..... |
lanky522
said:
|
Price vs. Steve Mason It's a mystery to me how Mason is still ahead of Price. Mason will only continue to struggle, as fewer teams look as lost right now as the Jackets, whereas Price seems to be on the upswing after experiencing his "slump" last season. |
The Rat
said:
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... No love for Salak? He's only moved a spot or two in the past 3 Months but has been amazing as a rookie in the AHL. Not sure what more he could have done to start the season.  |
Mike Long
said:
 |
... Oh, and I noticed you didn't really bring up the 2nd part of my original post. The first paragraph was re: Varlamov, but the 2nd was about Thomas and his ridiculous ranking at 5. Looks like you conveniently ignored that. Regardless, I like your work. Just gotta keep you on your toes. |
Mike Long
said:
|
... Re: Varlamov I'll reserve judgment for this month, and wait until he actually plays some decent competition. 3 of his 4 wins came against the Islanders, Wild, and Leafs. That's not exactly top competition. If he does the same thing against top competition this month, I'll admit I was wrong. But, not before then. |
dean little
said:
 |
... Dobber: Ive got Nabokov, S. Mason, Varlamov and Emery, that's four of your top 13 goalies, am i overloaded since we only use one goalie for stats? should I try and deal one of these goalies for some help? If so which one is the best trade asset to move, in terms of getting some decent value back but not hurting myself for this year/future? What kind of players should I target? |
Dobber
said:
|
... Keeper league - Osgood is probably done after this year...and it looks like this year he will struggle to get past 25 wins. No trade can save him. Howard is probably not the answer in the future, but he might be. This year he'll struggle to get to 20 wins. That's why both their values are low. Toskala is still young, is still a proven starter even though he has struggled with injuries, and can actually flourish if he is traded. No comments this month from Mike Long-ville? Varlamov finally got your tongue? hhaha |
Oilers rock 99
said:
|
Detroit??? seems kind of strange that the top ranked goalie for the best team in the last 15 years is only at # 44 do you expect a total collapse?? or just do't know who will lead the team in to the next 10 years one thing is for sure detroit's goalies should be at least ranked higher than toskla?? |
Mike Long
said:
|
... "You could be on and off this bandwagon all season long - but I'll stay on it. " -Dobber There is no on and off. I'm not on his bandwagon, period. As I said before, he'll be no more useful than Theodore was last season. |
jordan
said:
 |
System needs change. I think the fact that Dobber uses "Playoff" value and "Keeper" value, significantly handcuffs the usefulness of this list. Get rid of the points for playoff teams and remove the 1 year mentality that list has, and all of a sudden it becomes a lot more useful. |
Mike Terrion
said:
 |
... It might be better to go through the criteria Dobber clearly uses in ranking these guys. Rather than just calling it "ridiculous", what about stating "Why" you think that way. i.e. 1. Wins - Thomas and Varly should get more wins than Miller. 2. Thomas and Varly are both on surefire playoff teams. Miller is not. 3. They are all #1 on their depth charts. Anyone who thinks Theo is Washington's #1 is delusional. 4. doesn't apply to any of them. 5. doesn't apply to any of them, although Miller is the most recent of them to have a significant injury. 6. All talented, the difference between them is marginal although Justin Goldman would be the best person to analyze that. 7. Varly is the youngest. Thomas the oldest. Miller in the middle. 8. doesn't apply to any of them. Summary: They are ranked reasonably by Dobber according to the criteria he uses. It's ridiculous to call it ridiculous. |
Doctagon
said:
 |
... Even at #23 I would take Biron or Roloson (all 40 years of him) on the off chance that they get traded to a contender before I would touch Toskala.....Otherwise, great list. (And I'm kid of joking on the first part, but not really) |
derek
said:
 |
UR STILL A TURD I doubt if Fleury got hurt that they would sit on Brent Johnson which means Curry would come up...yes thats a slim chance but it could happen and I am saying the chances of that happening are better then the Flames who cant play a lick of D. The Canucks who like you said are offensively inept and Brodeur who is 100 yrs old (no chance the Devils win the cup). I wasnt saying these guys werent going to be the goalies if these guys make it. I am saying these teams will NOT make the finals...hence they have no chance. I can see Pitt with Curry still making it. PS. I am a Pens fan(which may cloud my judgement) but I am by no means a fanboy of Dobber. |
Dobber
said:
|
... Mike Long - atoadaso!!! Amazing what a 2-0 record and 1.14 GAA for the week will do. You could be on and off this bandwagon all season long - but I'll stay on it. |
sentium
said:
|
... Valiquette doesn't really feel relevant for this list, barring season-ending injury to Lundqvist. |
Mike Long
said:
|
... Re: Varlamov I am not the kind of person to say atoadaso Dobber, but you know what? Atoadaso, i $%&*@ atoadaso! |
Doog
said:
 |
... Dobber, Our league weighs save percentage much higher than W/L. Would you be willing to do an article at some point ranking keeper goalies based on that criterion? |
Keith
said:
|
omission?? Dobbs: with the way teams are re-building so quickly since the lockout (BOS, PIT, WAS, PHI, CHI) I was looking at a goalie to take in a keeper draft and was looking at the NYI team it seems that with the good job snow and Co are doing. how long will it be till they start to climb the ladder? so I was thinking that after Bandaid boy Rickey D there is only rolo/biron ,both who are on their way out (one age the other sucks) so I looked at MIKKO KOSKINEN and thought this guy should be on your list there is a really good chance that RD will have to retire early due to injury and that would leave MIKKO KOSKINEN as the only option in a couple years when their young guns start to devolep, and if they get Taylor Hall this year they would have to be looked at seriously in the near future. what do you think?? |
Dustin Carr
said:
 |
Varlomov I agree with Mike Long, how is Varlomov above Ryan Miller. This must be a mistake. |
bluejays
said:
 |
... I tend to agree with Kickerz points. It is a very difficult list to write and by no means would I wanna attempt it, but Kickerz does raise some good points..... I strongly suggested a prospect list for d-men awhile back, is there any way a goalie propsect list (Top 10) is in the cards Dobber? That would be sweet! |
Mike Long
said:
|
... I wish I could get Kipper, Miller, or Backstrom for Varlamov in one of my leagues. Seriously, Dobber, you would trade those guys for Varlamov straight up? Wow. Did you not watch his pathetic callapse against the Pens? What's he ranked so high for? Pure potential, or the 3 or 4 good games he played at the end of the Rangers series? The guy isn't ready yet, and you will find out soon enough. He'll have Jose Theodore-like numbers this year - at the very best. And what exactly did Tim Thomas do to jump 7 spots from July to August? Number 5 in a keeper list? Wow. If age doesn't matter, why is Broduer all the way down at 12? Thomas will be sharing his job with Rask as early as this year, and definitely next year. If someone traded Price, Ward, or Mason in my league for Thomas, I'd laugh at them. There is absolutely no consistency in this list. |
dean little
said:
|
... "DRL33...ur a turd I would take the bet that Curry has a better chance than Brodeur, Kipper, Luongo, Giguere, Theodore...and that brings the list down a little. The devils have little or no chance to win the cup... Luongo is on the Canucks...no chance Giggy is gonna be buried behind Hiller by the end of the year...no chance Theodore will be behind Varly and or Neuvirth by the end of the year... Kipper is losing it slowly... Now the list is 10...what Dobber said..." ok fanboy, lets play out your logic, in order for curry to win the cup, fleury needs to be injured and the pens decide to A. not trade for a proven goalie such as a giguere who may be available and B. decide to go with a unproven AHL goalie over Johnson who has played in the playoffs before. K, good luck with that happening. now for your list: The devils have little or no chance to win the cup...: last i checked brodeur was one of a handful of a goales who has the abiltiy to carry a team to a cup, and entering last years playoffs the devils were pegged a solid cup contender. Luongo is on the Canucks...no chance : luongo puts up great numbers in the playoffs, maybe one day the offense helps pick up the slack. He's also a soon to be UFA, whose to say by some crazy fluke he is dealt to a contender? betting against luongo is not very bright. Giggy is gonna be buried behind Hiller by the end of the year...no chance : you use the buried line, but fail to realize curry is behind two goalies??? Giggy has won a cup, and may get dealt to a contender, surely a smart GM would gamble on a proven cup winner before going with a 25 yr old ahler in the playoffs. ducks have a strong team, writing off giggy for hillier is also premature. Theodore will be behind Varly and or Neuvirth by the end of the year... : again how do you use this an excuse and not acknowledge curry being a #3? lol Kipper is losing it slowly... : and is still the unquestioned man in the nets for a strong team. now who is the turd, turd lol |
Dobber
said:
|
... drl: "this has to be one of the silliest things ive read on this otherwise great site, saying the Pens "will" win, not "may" but "will" is quite the bold statement." - I said will "win" and while that probably does imply win a Cup, I didn't mean for that. I meant they will win lots of playoff games. They will win a Cup probably Cups over the next decade, but meanwhile they will go deep very often. That's gold in my keeper leagues. "No friggin team is winning a Stanley Cup now or even a few years in the future with John Freakin Curry as their #1, you can put that in the bank as far as im concerned. The Pens arent the Oilers of the 80's, they dont even sniff the finals last year without the superb play of Fleury, a 25 year old career AHLer aint winning no stanley cup next year, get serious." - Fleury was terrible in the postseason until the final two games. Curry is a very underrated goalie who has overachieved at every level. You haven't read my stuff if you don't know this, but every team he's pretty much signed as depth, or as a walk on and by the end of the year he's the starter. Story of his life. Anyway, what's "crazy" is nit-picking how I have a guy on a TOP NHL team 36th. The No.3 goalie behind two Band-Aid Boys. 36th. And that gets nit-picked. Amusing. "This next quote is even crazier..."Big if, but of all the goalies who could win a Cup this year, Curry is one of about 10."" -This was an exaggeration. The exact number may be 22, or 19, or whatever. Didn't know people would be reading it with a pad and paper in hand, waiting to look it up and fully research it, ready to criticize. "Getting defensive because someone questioned your rankings, doesnt mean you should fire off insults and make outlandish predictions, it just makes you look ridiculous." - It's a Fantasy Hockey site, not the Globe and Mail. On a professional site such as the Globe, the writer will not respond to comments. In fantasy hockey, however, trash talk is encouraged and embraced. I want that culture here on my site. So I participate in the comments and I trash talk. I think of this as me having a beer with you and arguing one of your points. I can't get all "PC" and "professional" here, or the entire feel of the site would change. So if Kickerz was offended, I apologize. But I really just joked around with that "check boxes" stuff. - Think about this - if one out of every five readers on this site criticized me once per year, I would be getting insulted and criticized every half hour to an hour. That really adds up... and it wouldn't be very fair if I couldn't strike back now, would it? |
sentium
said:
|
... So the ridiculously miniscule chance that Curry wins a cup as starter weighs more heavily than all the regular season stats that other, ACTUAL NHL GOALIES, will get? This is fantasy hockey, people. Seriously, Curry is third on the Pittsburgh depth chart and isn't even very elite in the AHL. Pittsburgh fans absolutely DID NOT want Curry as backup this year because they know that he's not all that good. |
buck0198
said:
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DRL33...ur a turd I would take the bet that Curry has a better chance than Brodeur, Kipper, Luongo, Giguere, Theodore...and that brings the list down a little. The devils have little or no chance to win the cup... Luongo is on the Canucks...no chance Giggy is gonna be buried behind Hiller by the end of the year...no chance Theodore will be behind Varly and or Neuvirth by the end of the year... Kipper is losing it slowly... Now the list is 10...what Dobber said... |
drl33
said:
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... There is no "why the hate"... read this and tell me who was being rude... "Kickerz - hilarious comment. You know better than that. Rask is a top 20 goalie in keepers this year, because within three seasons he'll be getting 35 wins and is one of only a handful of goalies with the potential to one day get even 45 wins. KEEPER league buddy. I'd love for you to be in my league, one more guy to easily beat. Crawford and Niemi - HUGE value because Chicago is on the upswing of a good decade of 45-plus win seasons. One of them will benefit from that - especially with Huet being a Band-Aid boy. Backups who are young and on great teams (who will be in the playoffs for years to come - and my lists count playoffs) are valuable. If you can't see that, go check off boxes in newspaper pools, because this isn't for you." This site is amazing, but smack talking people who support your site is rather disappointing. |
germant
said:
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... Why the hate? Dobber does what Dobber does and that's provide us with his insight. He puts his opinions out there and not everybody's going to agree with them but he puts them out there nonetheless. Unlike paperback rankings, there's a site here for people to post their (differing or supporting) opinions but try to be respectful of the fact that he's putting himself out on a limb with his predictions. If you don't agree, then post as you did but don't get indignant or rude. Show some respect. |
drl33
said:
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... "Curry is an injury away from winning a Stanley Cup. The Pens will win again this year and if Fleury is hurt, they could ride Curry (not Johnson). Big if, but of all the goalies who could win a Cup this year, Curry is one of about 10. Markstrom won't get any wins this year and maybe two dozen next year. His (elite) value is for three years from now. I do admit, my formula is flawed in differentiating these two though. But it's hard to use one formula on all situations." Im sorry, but this has to be one of the silliest things ive read on this otherwise great site, saying the Pens "will" win, not "may" but "will" is quite the bold statement. No team in over a decade has repeated, DRW got better than their previous cup team and still were unable to repeat due to injuries. No friggin team is winning a Stanley Cup now or even a few years in the future with John Freakin Curry as their #1, you can put that in the bank as far as im concerned. The Pens arent the Oilers of the 80's, they dont even sniff the finals last year without the superb play of Fleury, a 25 year old career AHLer aint winning no stanley cup next year, get serious. This next quote is even crazier..."Big if, but of all the goalies who could win a Cup this year, Curry is one of about 10." Id bet as much as i could possibly bet that one of these goalies will win the cup this season before id bet on John Curry. Brodeur, Emery, Thomas, Fleury, Lundqvist, Varlamov, Theodore, Ward, Osgood, Huet, Kipper, Luongo, Nabokov, Hillier, Giguere. Thats 15 guys with a better shot, nevermind one of ten. Curry, a guy that has 2 career NHL wins, behind one of the best goalies in the league, is not in the top 10 of possible cup winning goalies. Not only that, but he wont even be in the NHL to begin the season. Getting defensive because someone questioned your rankings, doesnt mean you should fire off insults and make outlandish predictions, it just makes you look ridiculous. |
eyemissgilmour
said:
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... "Curry is an injury away from winning a Stanley Cup." That's wishful thinking at best, and ridiculous at worst. If Fleury gets hurt, The Pens will acquire another goalie faster than Kyle Wellwood finishes his hourly BigMac. So you would trade me Markstrom for Curry in a keeper league, yes? |
Kickerz
said:
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... Dobber, The way you have this list reporting, it is ONLY applicable to deep Keeper leagues with Farm systems. Emphasis there on the farm system. If a league has no farm system (and most I would venture DO NOT), this list is misreporting the value of so many goalies in the majority of keeper leagues. This and of itself is not bad, but you may wish to point that out a little more clearly in your explanation of the list. |
smack1919
said:
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... mikelong11 - Look at Leclaire's injury history. You'll be exhausted after. He's right where he should be, imo. |
mikelong11
said:
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... Pacal Leclaire is WAY too low. I would put thousands and thousands of dollars on the fact he will be a top 20 goalie this year. He's behind Curry and Neuvirth? Wow. |
Dobber
said:
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... Emery always gives one great year to his team before a meltdown. I think I wrote that in my guide. He'll be fine this year. |
Dobber
said:
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... Curry is an injury away from winning a Stanley Cup. The Pens will win again this year and if Fleury is hurt, they could ride Curry (not Johnson). Big if, but of all the goalies who could win a Cup this year, Curry is one of about 10. Markstrom won't get any wins this year and maybe two dozen next year. His (elite) value is for three years from now. I do admit, my formula is flawed in differentiating these two though. But it's hard to use one formula on all situations. Kickerz - Keeper league or not, you can't ignore the 40 wins that Thomas will give you this year. He just signed a new contract, so I'm thinking he'll have 85 wins over the next two seasons. It's a delicate balance - here and now vs. long-term. But I try. Expert League - I think I finished like 8th and 9th the last two years, so beating me is child's play. The hardcore poolies on this site just toy with me like a cat with a mouse. My forte is keeper leagues, I'm in three of them, and by the time I get to my one-year league I have less time to devote and I have a hard time changing my strategy to accommodate one year. |
Kickerz
said:
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... Dobber, You may wish to re-read my post. The issue is not that it is a keeper league, it is that your list is trying to do opposite things. If what make Rask's value so high is his youth and situation, that should have a negative impact on Thomas, as he is on his last legs. I also can also acknowledge that a backup that is established to carry the torch on a great young team has a lot of value, I can't accept giving value to two different players based on the reasoning that one of them and only one will get in. Especially not over proven production. There is a reason why (for most drafts) guys like Doan go higher in a drafts than guys like Giroux . As for wishing I was in your league, so you could beat me easily...Well, if a guy like me that has been in hockey pools for only 3 years manages to beat the owner of the premier fantasy hockey forum, -and a guy who earns his living giving advice on these pools- I would be pretty happy. Is it impossible? Let me in and find out . I hear you run that 3 tier league right? |
eyemissgilmour
said:
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... Solid list. But Curry at 36? Ahead of Markstrom?! No offense, but that makes no sense. A) Markstrom is the better goalie. B) Markstrom has lesser competition to overcome to become a #1. C) Markstrom has the better pedigree. The only plus I could give Curry is playing for the Pens, but he'll hardly ever actually PLAY for them. Let's put it another way, You would trade me Markstrom straight up for Curry? |
Oilers rock 99
said:
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Roberto Luongo I think his actual talent is getting in the way of your ranking here as good as he is (skill wise) I just don't see the canucks challenging for anything so unless he decides to opt for UFA next year he flat out will not get the wins nessary to beat the other top 6 guys especially if they ever decide to give schnider a few games. and the other one is Brian Boucher he is just a Ray emery melt down away from being #1 on a cup contender. seem to me that emery lost his job on OTT because he was a train wreck and then couldn't find work on any other 29 teams (inc NYI, COL, TB, ATL,) all teams that could use a good goalie yet everyone passed. then on anger managment rehab, (KHL) ,he punches his trainer in the face for putting a hat on him?? I don't think its un reasonable to think he may still prone to Mental meltdowns?? would you put $$ on the fact he is the #1 all year in Philly?? if not considering the cap space the flyers cant just go and get another guy so Brian Boucher looks to me as a pretty good value wager and his record over the last few years has been great I would not go as far as comparing Brian Boucher to tim Thomas but the situation may play out that way. older solid goalie gets a chance and runs with it.... I have already picked him up on waivers in my Leauge and got an imidate offer from the emery owner(seems he is not so confidant in emery either).. |
Dobber
said:
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... Kickerz - hilarious comment. You know better than that. Rask is a top 20 goalie in keepers this year, because within three seasons he'll be getting 35 wins and is one of only a handful of goalies with the potential to one day get even 45 wins. KEEPER league buddy. I'd love for you to be in my league, one more guy to easily beat. Crawford and Niemi - HUGE value because Chicago is on the upswing of a good decade of 45-plus win seasons. One of them will benefit from that - especially with Huet being a Band-Aid boy. Backups who are young and on great teams (who will be in the playoffs for years to come - and my lists count playoffs) are valuable. If you can't see that, go check off boxes in newspaper pools, because this isn't for you. |
sentium
said:
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... Kickerz: Then you don't want to look over the top 300 for players that are a few years away from actually hitting NHL ice Let's just say that you might feel inclined to write another comment I think lists like these are really tricky. Do you go by production? Do you go by possible trade value/hype? Do you go by how sure of a thing a goalie is? You can't have it all and this is Dobber's variant. Take it for what it is, meaning that it's not the end-all, be-all goalie list. Use it as one source of many when making your decisions. |
Kickerz
said:
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Worst Top # list I like the other lists... But the goalies top 100 list is beyond useless. So many issues. Goalies are a particular type. They are worth absolutely nothing until they are actually up there. They are too finicky... Case in point...Are the 2 backups in Chi worth anything??? Not really... Tuka Raask and Thomas in the top 15. That makes no sense. It is called hedging bets. I would way rather see a list that denoted the top goalies actual value in a keeper league...Meaning if they are not producing, they do not belong here and should be on the top 215 prospect page. It is like having a guy in the top 300 list who may not even make the NHL... What kind of advice is that... |
oilerblue
said:
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... Smith at 16, assume that means he's recovered from his concussion for next season? |
Santo Manna
said:
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... Very interesting, I know the August rankings are the ones that Dobber advises us are most accurate, but it's nonetheless interesting that Dobber is clearly on the Hiller wagon as against Giguere (which was not the case in the June rankings). That's a situation I would almost certainly stay away from, just because given Giguere's family issues last year and his pedigree, i could easily see him come back and kick butt next year, rendering Hiller a backup again. To me, there's too much risk there, but I would easily pick up Hiller as a high risk/reward option if I had sufficient backup (e.g., pick him up as a 3rd goalie on the off chance he in fact does steal/solidify the starter role). Otherwise, these are pretty solid rankings, although I would have thought Mike Smith's concussion problems would have knocked him down quite a bit. Great job as always Dobber, look forward to the Guide! |
Mabus
said:
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... Based on the criteria at the top, I think, Mason and Price are both too high and Huet is way too low. I think there would be laughter during a draft that counted wins including playoffs if Dipietro or Lehtonen went before Huet. Price (and the Canadians team as a whole) has too many question marks to take him before Ward, Miller or Kipper. And you would rather have Toskala over Emery? Good list, but those would be my tweaks. |
loco man
said:
 |
... I continue to be surprised Huet's rankings. He was an MVP candidate in Montreal prior to getting hurt, was awesome in Washington and landed in a sticky situation in Chicago. Remember, the Hawks were desperate to move Khabby, but simply couldn't. Now, being given the reigns on a powerhous Chi-town, I expect Huet to put up huge numbers this season. Is he really more of an injury risk than Fleury or Nabokov, etc.? He has something to prove this year and has a track record that shows he can back it up. Can you tell I am a Huet owner?? |
Dobber
said:
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... Oh - Backstrom is low because...to put it bluntly, Minnesota sucks. If you get my tweets on Twitter, you would have read my opinion that although Backstrom will start as many or more games this season...the Wild won't win as many. They also don't have defensive Lemaire as coach. |
Dobber
said:
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... Claudio - the rating difference is six points, or about 4%. Not worth an argument, since the player ratings are too close. 48% of keeper poolies would prefer Luongo, 52% would prefer Lundqvist. And all 48% of Luongo backers would argue with me I'm sure. But after his injury last year, I need to wait a few months before I would take him over Lundqvist. Right now, give me Lundqvist. |
Claudio
said:
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... Still don't understand why Backstrom is so low and why Lundqvist is ahead of Luongo. |
Dobber
said:
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... Just look down the May column at the goalies that were below 4 and are now above Kipper. They moved up...he didn't really move down. It's a tight race in that range, so it doesn't take much to move up or down. |
Ryan
said:
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... I know we are probably splitting hairs, but why did Kipper drop from 4 to 11 since May? |
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