AnttiNiemi 



Top 100 NHL Goalies to own in a keeper league - February edition



If two goalies are in the same tier, consider their value pretty equal. This is what was meant here all along - two goalies within 5.0 rating points from each other were to be considered equal, but based on feedback readers were not doing that. So enjoy the new tier system, and for those who like to split hairs...the ratings value was left in place.

 



The following is a list of the Top 25 goaltenders to own in your fantasy pool - get the full TOP 100 list - FREE - over at The Goalie Post

 

 

 

Based on your feedback, I've divided the tiers further - there are now eight tiers instead of seven, with more split in the Top 50, to give you a better handle on the different levels of fantasy value among the goalies. It's an ever-changing world - I could do these rankings daily, it seems

 


 

 

In the offseason, I will re-visit the ranking system and determine a way to make the different 'tiers' fit in the actual order of the 'rating'. It's hard to nail down the needs of "here and now" versus "next year" versus "the hotshot prospect for 2017" and the formula will need to be re-done and that is a big job that needs to be done properly

 

 

 

Mar 20 Goalie Team Rating Feb 20 Tier
1 Antti Niemi SJ 112.7 1 1
2 Tuukka Rask BOS 112.0 2 1
3 Marc-Andre Fleury PIT 110.1 4 1
4 Carey Price MTL 108.1 3 1
5 Henrik Lundqvist NYR 106.2 5 1
6 Corey Crawford CHI 106.0 6 1
7 Ben Bishop TB 100.7 7 1
8 Jonas Hiller ANA 94.9 9 2
9 Jonathan Quick LA 94.9 10 1
10 Sergei Bobrovsky CBJ 93.8 13 2
11 Ryan Miller STL 93.7 22 2
12 Roberto Luongo FLA 92.2 8 2
13 Mike Smith PHO 92.1 11 2
14 Semyon Varlamov COL 91.4 15 2
15 Jaroslav Halak WAS 87.5 14 3
16 Ondrej Pavelec WPG 87.0 19 3
17 Steve Mason PHI 86.8 12 3
18 Jonathan Bernier TOR 86.2 16 3
19 Kari Lehtonen DAL 85.3 20 3
20 Jimmy Howard DET 84.7 21 3
21 Craig Anderson OTT 83.5 17 3
22 Pekka Rinne NSH 83.4 23 2
23 Cory Schneider NJ 81.8 24 2
24 Braden Holtby WAS 81.7 18 4
25 Ben Scrivens EDM 78.7 26 3

 




------ To get the full Top 100 list, click here! ------

Goalie Post has free daily starting goalie grids, and as of 2013-14 the entire site is FREE



Advice - How you use the above tiered system will depend on your league rules - both in terms of categories, the amount of keepers you own, and how many goalies must be active, as well as how big your roster is and how many owners are in your league. But the key is to shoot for as many goalies in as high a tier as you can.





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RememberRobitaille said:

RememberRobitaille
... Thanks for the explanation, Dobber. I can see the argument for putting them where they were.

New list looks great. I can certainly get behind those tiers. More questiionable or injury-risk goalies in Tier 3 makes a lot of sense.
March 24, 2014
Votes: +0

SeaDawg said:

SeaDawg
Goalies are so important Love this list.

I'm in 5 keeper leagues, and am in no less than 2nd place in all of them. Not coincidentally, I have strong goaltending in all those leagues. Bishop/Bobrovsky in league one, Niemi/Smith in league two, Fleury/Quick in league three, Crawford/Bobrovsky in league 4, and Crawford/Bishop in league 5.

You can't win in fantasy hockey without solid tier1/tier 2 goalies.
March 21, 2014
Votes: +0

Dobber said:

Dobber
... RR
- Pavelec is signed to a big contract long-term. He won't be unseated regardless of consistency. That's value.
- Holtby, since the list you are referring to is from Feb.20 (i.e. pre-Halak) was the guy in Washington and I had faith in him. Things have obviously changed since then.

February was my first crack at tiers. I'll give it another go today for March
March 20, 2014
Votes: +0

RememberRobitaille said:

RememberRobitaille
How tiers are determined I'm curious about the rationale behind which goalies are assigned to which tier. Pavelec and Holtby are a couple glaring names that stick out at me from Tier 2. Why are they considered equal to the other Tier 2 boys? Pavelec has a history of subpar numbers, and Holtby's starting job was never very secure. Is it a combination of potential and number of starts that keeps them in Tier 2?

I think that Tiers 1 and 2 are a bit broad for my taste, as all goalies who are currently considered "#1 goalies" can be found within those tiers. For the sake of better valuation, I might find more use in breaking all #1 goalies down between 3 tiers, with more suspect guys like Pavelec, Holtby, Ward, Anderson in Tier 3. Tier 3 would then become Tier 4, and so on. I think it's misleading to say that Pavelec is equal in value to some of these other guys.
March 18, 2014
Votes: +0

Dobber said:

Dobber
... Rinne - I would consider him Top 5 if he were healthy, and watch him move up this chart each month going forward now that he's back

Aaron - playoffs bear no impact. But you are right - YTD stats impact, and half the leagues out there don't consider that. But half do. So I'm stuck.

Mason - I don't consider top or bottom within tier, they are all equal. I didn't like him ahead of those goalies either mounD, so I put them in the same tier to remove such a consideration
March 10, 2014
Votes: +0

SharkMeat said:

SharkMeat
Tiers I like the Tierd approach easier for me to evaluate choices...thanks for the good work...
February 27, 2014
Votes: +0

Grapes said:

Grapes
Pukka Rinse ranking . Is PKU 23rd due to his current injury status ? Where would you place him if healthy, top 5? Cheers
February 24, 2014
Votes: +2

Aaron27 said:

Aaron27
Ratings Playoff impact certainly skews your ratings a bit Dobber, but I think a bigger one is the fact that your values include YTD stats (since I recall in your league the YTD points move with the player). This is what results in the rankings being less meaningful (to those in leagues where the points don't come across) as the season goes on.

As has been stated a zillion times over the years, these rankings are based on -your/Dobber's- league settings, so as long as people recognize that there's nothing wrong with them. When people try to apply them to their own leagues they get all bent outta shape, but that's just their own ignorance.
February 24, 2014
Votes: +0

mounD said:

mounD
Mason? I very much like the tiered approach to goaltenders ... but Steve Mason a top-end tier2 goalie? Seems a bit much to have him rated above bobrovsky, but you're the expert I guess. If I offered Mason for Bobrovsky I'd be laughed out of my league, haha.
February 24, 2014
Votes: +0

Dobber said:

Dobber
... I'm so close to doing that, Shoeless...but then I'll get twice the pushback on only having "two tiers" in the Top 25, and "why don't you rank within the tier", etc

I'm also going to take another look at the formula in the offseason. The ranking is custom-made for my own keeper league, but as I've discovered with other rankings, I tend to get a lot of feedback from users in different leagues and I get a better feel for which is the best 'one size fits all' strategy
February 24, 2014
Votes: +0

Shoeless said:

Shoeless
Simple Take the rating and rank out of your table.
February 24, 2014
Votes: +0

Dobber said:

Dobber
... Okay, under the above tiering system, you can see what I meant for this chart all along (that's why I said players within 5.0 rating of each other are equal value). There are 1000s of different league rules out there, impossible to capture them all. But goalies are finicky and change at the drop of a hat. If you have two Tier 1 goalies and two Tier 2 goalies (depending on depth of your league), then that's really all you can do in terms of safely securing that position.

The full chart is at Goalie Post, for those who didn't know that (despite the two giant links above smilies/wink.gif )
February 23, 2014
Votes: +1

Dobber said:

Dobber
... Rankings will be up shortly - you're all commenting based on month-old rankings. Mabus - this comment is especially in response to what you say below. A month ago, Dubnyk just landed on the most defensive team in the league and usually the coach backs his GM up and plays the hell out of the new acquisition. On January 20, I felt that Dubnyk would have 12 wins and 4 shutouts by the time the Feb. 20 update came around. Instead, he's been on the bench. Zero wins. Kinda makes a difference. But I'm sure you can see where that one went wrong.

One of my keeper leagues don't set lineups weekly - so Schneider is useless in that one, as his points to date are low and he'll never get on a pro team. Thousands of different rules out there folks, I do what I can to accommodate. But again - in the past month, Schneider has been a superstar. So check the date of the rankings and think about what's been happening since the rankings were put up.
February 23, 2014
Votes: +0

mabus said:

mabus
... I just read your comment on Dubnyk having value this year, and now I'm even more puzzled. How does Dubnyk have any value this year? Horrible save percentage, horrible GAA, and almost no wins - doesn't sound like a lot of value to me. If I saw a Dubnyk for Schneider trade accepted, I'd assume that there was collusion.
February 21, 2014
Votes: +0

mabus said:

mabus
... As an owner of Bishop and Schneider, I'm not sure I agree with either ranking for a keeper league - maybe a 1 year league, but I just don't understand these from a keeper perspective.

Bishop hasn't been able to stay healthy, and that combined with his short track record makes him a significant risk at 7. I hope he continues to perform as a top 10 goalie, but he certainly carries risk at that place. Keeping Schneider out of the top 25 seems like a huge oversight. Advanced metrics indicate that he is one of the elite goalies in the NHL, and any suggestion that someone in a keeper league would be better off with Ward, Dubnyk or Pavelec seems completely crazy to me.
February 21, 2014
Votes: +0

Moses said:

Moses
... Schneider has been outstanding at every level including the NHL.
January 24, 2014
Votes: +0

jsuites said:

jsuites
... Cheers, i can see why you'd want to do what you can to avoid complaints (from people like me haha). Can't say enough about how much your site has helped me out over the years, many thanks. It's only the goalie rankings that get my goat.
January 23, 2014
Votes: +0

jsuites said:

jsuites
... Also worth noting - I respectfully disagree that no top 5 fantasy team would be looking at acquiring Schneider right now since he "won't help here or now". Two of my three keeper leagues use wins, SV% and GAA as the only three goalie cats. As noted by Shoeless, Schneids is excelling in 2 of those three cats, and although it may not last the rest of the year, lately he's been getting the starts over Brodeur as well, so win totals should improve. Schneider would be a great pickup for the stretch run in some leagues.
January 22, 2014
Votes: +1

Dobber said:

Dobber
... jsuites - I did have tiers once, a few months ago. Maybe I'll go back to it.

Why have rankings at all? Well, each goalie's sliding scale is different, right? And the rule isn't just for goalie rankings, but the player rankings as well. And it's mostly in place to reduce the amount of complaints about this player being below this player - because truly in trade talks you nudge values up and down almost the same way.

But the tier system, for goalies, is probably the best way to look at it.
January 22, 2014
Votes: +0

jsuites said:

jsuites
... Why even assign individual points and rankings when the caveat is that any goalies within 5 points of each other are considered equal? Why not just use tiers? Then again, you'd have a fairly large third tier, depending on how one interprets the "within five points" rule.

Niemi, Rask and Fleury are within 5 points of each other, but no goalies are within 5 points of them. So let's consider those three the top tier.

Price, Lundqvist and Crawford, same thing. They would make up the second tier, with no other goalies within 5 points.

But the third tier is where it starts to get weird. Of the remaining 19 goalies in the top 25, none are 5 or more points apart. So the 7th ranked goalie is within 5 points of the 9th ranked goalie, who is within 5 points of the 16th ranked goalie, who is within 5 points of the 22nd ranked goalie, and so on. So we should consider goalies 7 - 25 as equal?

I realize I am playing with the numbers a bit there and that the five point rule is meant as a sliding scale for any individual goalie - look 5 points up or down the standings and any other goalies included are considered equal. So there are in fact many tiers depending on which goalie you're evaluating. But this still seems like flawed logic. For instance. Anderson is ranked 17th at 90.4 pts. There are no less than 12 goalies ranked within five points of Anderson, so in this instance, 13 of the top 25 goalies could be considered to have equal value. At that point, why have rankings at all?


January 22, 2014
Votes: +0

Dobber said:

Dobber
... Shoeless - hopefully you clicked the link above to see the Top 100 goalies, and found Schneider there at No.27. As a long time reader you already know that any two goalies within 5 rankings points on the chart are considered equal - and would really depend on which side of the bed you wake up on when you decide who you value more.

So with all that in mind, I know that you feel better with Schneider ranked between 23 (with Rinne!) and 32. And keeper leagues include immediate returns as well - so any team in the Top 5 in your league is already out of the trade talks for Schneider, since he won't help them here and now.

Fleury - agreed
Dubnyk - only has value this year, but very appealing value. Rinne's injury really keeps this close, but this is where my formula fails. Rinne is much better.
Khudobin - I'm a big fan, but I don't have confidence that he will get a lot of wins over the next two years. But if he ever gets a chance, watch out
January 22, 2014
Votes: +0

Instant Karma said:

Instant Karma
Huh I also find the relative distance between Ward and Khudobin to be rather remarkable, given that both Rinne and Dubnyk are both also on the same team and yet are back-to-back in the top-25.

Also never thought I'd live to see the day that Flower was ranked higher than King Henrik.
January 22, 2014
Votes: +0

Shoeless said:

Shoeless
Sorry second best GAA is what I meant to type
January 22, 2014 | url
Votes: +0

Shoeless said:

Shoeless
... I find it quite remarkable that a goalie who over 24 games has the 2nd best save percentage in the league, tied for 3rd in shutouts and is 6th in save percentage is not in the top 25. Yeah I get that he doesn't have a lot of wins and he plays behind a team that can't score (usually), and I get that Brodeur gets the !A action, but holy smokes Dobber - if you are plugging Schneider as outside of the top 25 keepers to own going forward, I think you are doing your readership a great disservice. the guy's a frigging stud and Lou will fix that team, he always does.

I think there is something seriously wrong with your formulas.
January 22, 2014 | url
Votes: +1
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