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Now that the season is all but over, I thought it would be fun to go back and look over my draft list and see how my predictions fared. I’ll warn you now; my predictions tend to fall on the conservative side. Below is a cross-section of players from the Eastern Conference that I was wrong about in my forecasting:

 



The Good

These guys exceeded my expectations:

Slava Kozlov

My 08/09 Prediction:  50 points
Should Finish With:  75 points
Prognosis For Next Year:  I’ll admit I thought he was done.  Prior to last season’s 41 points, Kozlov did record seasons of 80 and 71 points.  He will be 37-years-old next season, so don’t expect more than 60 points in what could be his final season.

Todd White

My 08/09 Prediction:  40 points
Should Finish With:  73 points
Prognosis For Next Year:  It’s unusual for players to have career years at 33 years of age. It’s even more unusual for them to repeat that feat. He’ll be lucky to hit 50 points next season, but if you can draft him with other 50 point players, he might be worth a late round pick.

Phil Kessel

My 08/09 Prediction:  50 points
Should Finish With:  57 points
Prognosis For Next Year:  Pro-rates to a 66 point season.  Kessel gets 40 goals and 65 points next year. Book it.

David Krejci

My 08/09 Prediction:  45 points
Should Finish With:  74 points
Prognosis For Next Year:  If you say you predicted his points surge this season you are either a liar or a Krejci family member.  He was a prolific scorer in junior and his puck skills are for real.  I have no difficulty saying he’ll hit at least 65 points next season.

Zach Parise

My 08/09 Prediction:  75 points
Should Finish With:  95 points
Prognosis For Next Year:  This year Parise had a breakout year in his fourth season at 24-years-of-age. After consecutive seasons of 62 and 65 points, Parise may have hit very close to his ceiling this season.  Look for a slight drop to around 85 points.

Patrik Elias

My 08/09 Prediction:  60 points
Should Finish With:  80 points
Prognosis For Next Year:  After two consecutive seasons of 69 and 55 points, Elias is having a bounce back season.  The soon to b 33-year-old still has four years left on his contract. I only see 70 points next year.

Jamie Langenbrunner

My 08/09 Prediction:  50 points
Should Finish With:  70 points
Prognosis For Next Year: I was way off this year, but I didn’t think he would stay healthy all season nor did I think he had this much offensive ability. Guess I was wrong! I’ll put him in for 55-60 points next season.

Jeff Carter

My 08/09 Prediction:  30 goals and 60 points
Should Finish With:  46 goals and 85
Prognosis For Next Year:  Similar to Parise in that he is in his fourth year and is 24-years-old. The jump from 29 to 46 goals and 60 to 85 points is steep. Another candidate for a small slide next season.

Simon Gagne

My 08/09 Prediction:  55 points
Should Finish With:  74 points
Prognosis For Next Year:  It was never about his skill level, concussions are tricky things. Gagne should be good for 70 points next year, but I’m still hesitant to have him on my fantasy roster.

Scott Hartnell.

My 08/09 Prediction:  50 points and 140 penalty minutes
Should Finish With:  62 points and 142 penalty minutes
Prognosis For Next Year:  At least I got the penalty minutes right. His previous high was 48 points. I’ll inch my expectations up to 55 points next year.

Alexei Ponikarovsky

My 08/09 Prediction: 40 points
Should Finish With:  61 points
Prognosis For Next Year:  Poni eclipsed his previous career high by 15 points.  He turns 29-years-old today.  Do I take him as a 60 point player next year?  Uh, no. Pencil him in for 50 with upside.

Mike Green

My 08/09 Prediction: 65 points
Should Finish With:  72 points
Prognosis For Next Year:  Had he been able to play in all 82 games this season, Green would have had 87 points. While I don’t think that is realistic for next season, he could certainly approach 75 points.

Alexander Semin

My 08/09 Prediction:  60 points
Should Finish With:  78 points
Prognosis For Next Year:  This guy is such a tease. If you pro-rate his points for this season, he would have had 104 points. Count on him missing 15-20 games and still hit for 75 points.

The Bad

This group failed to meet my expectations:

Patrice Bergeron

My 08/09 Prediction:  60 points
Should Finish With:  37 points
Prognosis For Next Year: Not good. Another concussion this year and his points only pro-rated to 47. A risky pick with 65 point upside.

Derek Roy

My 08/09 Prediction:  85 points
Should Finish With:  71 points
Prognosis For Next Year:  Roy had 81 points last year, but only 63 the year before that. Roy will be 26-years-old to start next season, 75 points should be a safe bet for a player just entering his prime.

Eric Staal

My 08/09 Prediction:  90 points
Should Finish With:  75 points
Prognosis For Next Year:  Staal has 28 points over his last 18 games. Over his last four seasons, he has averaged 82 points a year. Next year, it’s 90-95 points, guaranteed.

Nathan Horton


My 08/09 Prediction:  65 points
Should Finish With:  44 points
Prognosis For Next Year: Entered this season with back-to-back seasons of 62 points.  His 43 points in 64 games, pro-rates to 55 points, not too bad, but still a disappointment. A return to the 60 point level is very likely next season.

Scott Gomez

My 08/09 Prediction:  75 points
Should Finish With:  58 points
Prognosis For Next Year: Gomez has only missed an average of 3.5 games per season over his nine years in the NHL. A return to 70 points would be a good bet.

Jason Spezza

My 08/09 Prediction:  90 points
Should Finish With:  72 points
Prognosis For Next Year: Caught up in the train wreck that was the Ottawa Senators this year. Easily back on track for next season and 90 points. He’ll be looking to impress in a bid to show he’s worthy of an Olympic team berth.

Petr Sykora

My 08/09 Prediction:  65 points
Should Finish With:  47 points
Prognosis For Next Year:  After recording 63 points last season, I expected around 65 points this year playing with either of the top two centres. If the 32-year-old unrestricted free agent re-signs with Pittsburgh, he could hit 55 points. If he signs with another team, 45 points is more likely.

Vaclav Prospal

My 08/09 Prediction:  60 points
Should Finish With:  46 points
Prognosis For Next Year:  As predictable as Old Faithful. This was the seventh year in a row alternating good seasons with bad. Bet the house on 70 points next season, it’s a sure thing!

The Ugly

These are the ones where my predictions were far off in a bad way:

Jason Pominville

My 08/09 Prediction:  80 points
Should Finish With:  63 points
Prognosis For Next Year: I thought Pommer could repeat his 80 point season. I still do, but will conservatively mark him down for 70 points next season.

Maxim Afinogenov

My 08/09 Prediction:  50 points
Should Finish With:  20 points
Prognosis For Next Year: Another poor season for Afinogenov. He had a pro-rated 34 points this year. He’ll be 30 years old next campaign and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the unrestricted free agent bolt to the KHL.

Joe Corvo

My 08/09 Prediction:  60 points
Should Finish With:  38 points
Prognosis For Next Year:  Sixty points was a little too bold of a prediction. Corvo gets a ton of ice time and has eight points in his last seven games. Carolina is 13-1-2 since the beginning of March.

Rod Brind’Amour

My 08/09 Prediction:  65 points
Should Finish With:  50 points
Prognosis For Next Year: This year was shaping up to be a complete disaster for Rod the Bod, but something happened in March. In the 15 games since the beginning of March, Brind’Amour has scored 17 points. Even though he’ll be 39 years old to start next season, he is under contract for the next two years and should tally 60 points next season.

Tomas Plekanec

My 08/09 Prediction:  75 points
Should Finish With:  40 points
Prognosis For Next Year: This was a huge miss. He’ll bounce back with 65 points next year.

Andrei Kostitsyn

My 08/09 Prediction:  60 points
Should Finish With:  41 points
Prognosis For Next Year: This year was a learning year for the elder Kostitsyn brother. Next year, he’ll be much better and good for about 55 points.

Brian Rolston

My 08/09 Prediction:  60 points
Should Finish With:  29 points
Prognosis For Next Year: Even if you pro-rate Rolston’s season, it still only comes out to 38 points. After recording three straight seasons of 30 goals or more, I thought he would get more goals from the point on the power play. I can’t see more than 50 points next year.

Mark Streit

My 08/09 Prediction:  45 points
Should Finish With:  57 points
Prognosis For Next Year: If he was able to play the entire season, Streit would have finished with 63 points, one more than he had last year! So much for his former team being responsible for his career season. The real question is can he do it again? I wouldn’t put it past the late bloomer. Put him down for 55 points.

Wade Redden and Michal Rozsival

My 08/09 Predictions: 40 points
Should Finish With:  25 and 30 points
Prognosis For Next Year:  Both finished last season with 38 points and I thought their points totals would stay status quo. How wrong I was. Redden seems to have dragged Rozsival’s point totals down. This gives R and R (rest and relaxation) a whole new meaning.

Dany Heatley

My 08/09 Prediction:  100 points
Should Finish With:  72 points
Prognosis For Next Year: I thought last year’s 82 points were a blip after putting up two consecutive 100 plus point seasons. I’d scale that down to 95 points next year with a resurgent Senators team.

Braydon Coburn

My 08/09 Prediction:  40 points
Should Finish With:  28 points
Prognosis For Next Year: I wasn’t as high on him as some, but still thought he could hit 40 points. He’s still only 24 years old and learning his position at the NHL level. I’ll push the 40 point prediction to next year.

Miroslav Satan

My 08/09 Prediction:  60 points
Should Finish With:  37 points
Prognosis For Next Year:  Currently in the minors, Satan used to be a lock for 65 points, but it looks like his NHL career is all but finished.

Vincent Lecavalier

My 08/09 Prediction:  95 points
Should Finish With:  68 points
Prognosis For Next Year:  In Vinny’s last two seasons, he scored 92 and 108 points, so 68 is way off the mark. Hopefully the wrist surgery won’t affect his play next season. I think he’ll be primed for a big bounce right back to the 90 point mark, although there is some risk here.

Andrej Meszaros

My 08/09 Prediction:  40 points
Should Finish With:  16 points
Prognosis For Next Year:  This was by far Meszaros’ worst season in the NHL. It was also the worst NHL team he’s ever played on. He’ll be good for 35 points next season.

Michal Nylander

My 08/09 Prediction:  70 points
Should Finish With:  32 points
Prognosis For Next Year: Completely disappeared this season. Still has two years at almost $5.0 million per season remaining on his contract. Prime candidate for buy-out.


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