Condolences to the loved ones of those killed in the horrific shooting last night in Colorado.

 

One of the victims was well known in the hockey community in the Colorado area - Jessica Redfield. Justin Goldman knew her quite well.

 

"One of those killed was Jessica Ghawi, a well-known Denver-area hockey blogger, also known as Jessica Redfield on Twitter. She had moved to Denver from San Antonio a year ago, according to KSAT. She was also an intern for the You Can Play Project. "Our staff is despondent today over the loss of our intern Jessica Redfield. We will miss her intelligence, kindness, and work ethic greatly," was the message from the organization's Twitter feed Friday morning."

 

Such a tragedy, and again my thoughts are with all of those affected by this.

 

What is stopping a team from going out and offer-sheeting Jakub Voracek? The Flyers are right up against the cap, and Voracek is still unsigned. Would Philadelphia be able to match an offer sheet in the $5 million range?

 

Would be a risk, but from everything I have seen with Voracek he is on track to become a very solid top playmaking left winger. 

 

The Leafs re-signed Nikolai Kulemin - two years with a cap hit of $2.8 million each season. The Leafs hope that the Kulemin of 2010-11 returns, and that last year was just a bump in the road.

 

I'd say Kulemin's true offensive potential falls somewhere in between. He is in tough to score 30 again, but he'll surely score more than the seven he did this past season.

 

Another "bridge" contract - Sam Gagner re-signed with Edmonton for one year and $3.2 million. If he has a big season, he'll be in for a pay day next summer.

 

One more contract to make note of - TJ Oshie was extended for five seasons by the Blues. The cap hit is just north of $4 million. Oshie isn't a $4 million player yet (although with the rising cap he could be I suppose), but this contract has the potential to be one of the best in the league in a few years.

 

Imagine being Philadelphia's capologist? Do they even have one? I'd imagine nothing would be scarier in that role than a 1am phone call from Holmgren.

 

"So... I'm going to need you to come in and work this weekend."

 

Some of my recently published stuff:

 

Over at the CanucksArmy – a look at a potential line featuring Zack Kassian, Brenden Gaunce, and Nicklas Jensenthe Legion of Doom 2.0?

 

Over at the Hockey Writiers | Business – Mike Colligan and I will be debating the finer points of the ongoing CBA negotiations. Our first installment takes aim at revenue sharing.

 

And at Angus Certified (to be republished here this weekend) – the underutilization of Mike Green in Washington.

 

The full details of the Shea Weber offer sheet. Those signing bonuses are monsters – it will be interesting to see if the Preds dig deep (very deep) into their wallets for this one.

 

Year

Salary

Signing Bonus

Cap Hit

2012-13

$1,000,000

$13,000,000

$7,857,142

2013-14

$1,000,000

$13,000,000

$7,857,142

2014-15

$1,000,000

$13,000,000

$7,857,142

2015-16

$1,000,000

$13,000,000

$7,857,142

2016-17

$4,000,000

$8,000,000

$7,857,142

2017-18

$4,000,000

$8,000,000

$7,857,142

2018-19

$6,000,000

$7,857,142

2019-20

$6,000,000

$7,857,142

2020-21

$6,000,000

$7,857,142

2021-22

$6,000,000

$7,857,142

2022-23

$3,000,000

$7,857,142

2023-24

$1,000,000

$7,857,142

2024-25

$1,000,000

$7,857,142

2025-26

$1,000,000

$7,857,142

 

“Maybe this is a bit of shady dealing by Paul Holmgren and the Flyers. Well, no. It is a bit of shady dealing. It's walking the line of salary cap circumvention, but in terms of what Weber will be worth in each year of the deal, it might be about right. You can make a sound argument that he's indeed worth $14 million over the next four years, just as you can argue he'll be worth $1 million per year as he's nearing 40. That's the argument against circumvention, and based on precedent it will likely work.”


A very in-depth look at Ryan Getzlaf from The Hockey Writers.

 

“It’s fitting that perhaps the most frustratingly inconsistent player on Anaheim’s roster should lead off this examination parade. Ryan Getzlaf is a big (6’4″, 224 lbs.), talented center who many people feel has the skill set to be one of the top players in the League, but over the past few years has been plagued by inconsistency and injury issues. There was a time in which it appeared Getzlaf was on the verge of becoming one of the top three or four centers in the game. In 2008-09, the fourth-year man established career highs in assists (66) and points (91), while matching his previous career high for goals (25), and finishing the season with a 1.123 Point Per Game average, good for tenth in the League.”


Save for Eric Staal’s poor start to 2012, no player was more disappointing last season than Getzlaf. And perhaps no player did less with more in terms of natural talent. Getzlaf is big and strong, and he has the skill set and skating ability of a 5-11, 180 pound sniper.

 

“Brian Burke once said of Getzlaf, “[he] can be as good as he wants to be.”


And it seems like last season that Getzlaf decided he didn’t want to be that good.  The Ducks are arguably the most top-heavy team in the league in terms of roster talent, and when one of the supposed stars is underperforming, the team will struggle.

 

Does Getzlaf rebound in Anaheim? Do the Ducks trade him and keep Bobby Ryan? Doubtful, as Ryan has expressed his desire to get traded multiple times.

 

Minnesota has arguably the best group of prospects in hockey. Who makes the team next year?

 

Mikael Granlund is a lock. Jonas Brodin is going to contend for a spot on the back end, too.

 

Some potential lines (from Hockey Wilderness):

 

Parise-Koivu-Heatley

Granlund-Cullen-Setoguchi

Clutterbuck-Brodziak-Mitchell

Powe-Konopka-Kassian

 

Bouchard

 

Suter-Spurgeon

Gilbert-Scandella

Stoner-Falk

 

Prosser

 

I could see Spurgeon having an offensive coming out party playing alongside a rock like Suter. Spurgeon was Minnesota’s best defenseman last season (by far).

Coyle could play in the NHL now – he has the physical tools to do so already. However, he needs to refine his play away from the puck. And there isn’t much room up front.

On Brodin:

 

“Here is the one prospect I would not count out. He is facing a d-corps full up with one way deals, but if Brodin can impress enough, Prosser, Stoner, Falk, or even Scandella could find their way back to Houston in short order. Fletcher went out and improved the defense, and likely will not handle well if his defense is not performing. Brodin skates with pure grace, and plays a smart game. If the other young guys continue to make mistakes, Brodin is going to push them out of St. Paul.”


The Wild inked Matt Dumba to an entry-level contract. He won’t be in the NHL for at least a year or two.

 

According to the Toronto Sun, the Kings are interested in Matt Frattin in exchange for Jonathan Bernier. I’d imagine it would take more from Toronto’s side – and I am a huge Frattin fan. I’m not sure Bernier is the best fit for TO – if they want to make the playoffs now, Luongo makes much more sense. I don’t see Bernier has a massive upgrade on James Reimer, either (not enough to give up a big package to acquire, at least).

 

Let’s assume, for a minute, that Weber leaves Nashville via offer sheet. What does the Predators blueline look like?

 

Young.

 

Ellis, Blum, and Josi would all be on the team, joined by veterans Hall Gill and Kevin Klein. The Predators, as I have stated, simply have to match the contract. Poile needs to go door-to-door in Nashville with a collection basket if it really comes to that.

 

As a hockey fan I hope Green gets back on track - so fun to watch play:

 

 


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Comments (14)add comment

Rollie1967 said:

Rollie1967
... Moving Meszaros would benefit both teams, but there is no reason he has to go to Nashville- plenty of teams would take him, decent caphit and most teams have lots of money to spend.

Im unclear on the difference between salary and signing bonus- does the signing bonus get paid regardless if the season happens? If so, why has it taken someone until the final year of the CBA to figure that out? During the last lockout-did the year missed count in contracts? or where they all delayed 1 year? If this was the intent of the bonus- I could see it being rejected, Kovalchuks contract was-and it wasnt much worse than Luongo or Hossas deal (and NJ got penalized a 1st rnd pick!) If the bonus is guaranteed regardless of NHL games...why does he have it for so many years? 6 years of no NHL would be the death of the league. I applaud Holmgren for taking the chance- but the contract itself is nuts. Not good for Nashville or small market teams at all.
July 20, 2012
Votes: +0

sanstanya said:

sanstanya
... Yeah it would be a bitter pill to swallow for sure. But it might be the most practical "out" for NSH. The 1sts don't seem like great compensation; but signing him would be weird if he just really wants to leave. And the cash payout in the early years is a kick in the teeth for that team and makes signing to trade a year later for a better return pretty unpalatable too.
July 20, 2012
Votes: +0

sentium said:

Dakkster
... Alright. Seems like a really weird course to take. If I'm Poile, I'm steaming mad at Holmgren. Considering how furious Burke got at Lowe for the Penner thing, I'm having a hard time seeing how Poile and Holmgren would get all cordial and work out a deal after the fact.
July 20, 2012
Votes: +0

sanstanya said:

sanstanya
@Sentium In 97 the Flyers signed Gratton (from TB) to an offer sheet; TB then traded the compensation picks back for Renberg and Dykhuis.

In 95 STL signed Corson to an offer sheet. EDM traded back the picks for CuJo and Mike Grier.

Only ones I've heard of.
July 20, 2012
Votes: +0

Spec7ral said:

Spec7ral
... sentium: The Gratton deal has been brought up in the forum
July 20, 2012
Votes: +0

sentium said:

Dakkster
... santanya: When exactly has that kind of deal ever happened before?
July 20, 2012
Votes: +0

sentium said:

Dakkster
... Why are you people in the comments talking about ANY trade scenario involving Weber? It's impossible that he gets traded because of the offer sheet. A trade CANNOT HAPPEN. So just stop talking about silly trade scenarios. It's not happening.
July 20, 2012
Votes: +0

Guinnies_Moustache said:

Mr Zizzla
Weber leaving can lead to.... So Weber goes to Nashville for say 3 firsts and Meszaros, they need to get an NHL Dman back in this deal.

Penguins trade Martin (5M) and Kennedy (2M) for a 1st (from PHI), Austin Watson and Sergei Kostitsyn's rights then sign him for 2 years @ 2.8M.

Doan grows impatient and signs with Pittsburgh for 3 years @ 6M (wishful thinking on that cap hit) [year 1 = 8M, year 2 = 4.5M, year 3 = 4M.

Shero sends out 7M and takes on 8.3M leaving him with 8.5M available cap.

The Pens still have cap space to make mid-season moves and add a veteran D from the remaining crop of Kubina, Eaton, Jurcina, Sauer (around 2-2.5M for 1-2 years). They aren't great but if they can play solid 5D minutes and the Pens give some added leadership on the back end, i could see it working.

About 6M in cap space and this lineup:
Kunitz-Malkin-Neal
SKostitsyn-Crosby-Doan
Cooke-Sutter-Dupuis
Glass-Vitale/Jeffrey-Adams

Letang-Orpik
Engelland-Niskanen
UFA-Depres

Fleury
Vokoun

Press box: Lovejoy/Strait

If the D doesn't pan out, a trade of a couple prospects for Dan Boyle perhaps? Or Shero just makes that happen in the off-season smilies/cheesy.gif

Just some summer time armchair GMing.
July 20, 2012
Votes: +0

sanstanya said:

sanstanya
@Kofax You're right that NSH can't technically sign and trade Weber this year, but what they can do, and what has been done in the past, is work out a trade agreement with Phi to get something other than the 4 1sts. On paper the offer sheet goes through and they get the 1sts as compensation, then trade the 1sts (or some of them) back to Phi for something else. All predicated on the position that we'll just match if you don't agree to this...It's happened a couple times previously and seems more likely to me than just accepting the 1sts or paying Weber that much for 1 year knowing he doens't wnat to be there and then trading him next year. We'll see.
July 20, 2012
Votes: +0

angus said:

angus
... Kofax - incredibly optimistic - wasn't trying to compare Lindros to Gaunce, and so on, but more to the fact that they could become a solid line with a lot of size.

Thanks for reading.
July 20, 2012
Votes: +0

Pengwin7 said:

Pengwin7
Finally. I predicted a $7.8m cap hit for Shea Weber a few weeks ago in a goalie thread. Also, been predicting that he'd be tendered to an RFA by another team. I missed the team, but hit almost all of my speculation this season on Parise, R.Suter, and Weber all choosing to switch teams. Hooray!

Now, if Shea Weber actually becomes a Flyer... Pengwin will be very, very happy!
July 20, 2012
Votes: +0

pahlsson26 said:

pahlsson26
Getzlaf Also, take into account his Shooting % and amount of shots taken.

2010/11: 67 GP, 19 G, 117 SH, 16.2 SH%, 1.75 SH/G
2011/12: 82 GP, 11 G, 185 SH, 5.9 SH%, 2.26 SH/G
career avg (excluding rookie season): 75.8 GP, 20.5 G, 177.6 SH, 11.5 SH%, 2.34 SH/G

He was really snakebitten in terms of scoring goals last season. He probably could've had 20 goals, but was robbed at least a few times by goalies and also hit post or crossbar quite a few times. His SH% reflects this, as it is normally twice as good as it was last season.

I think he'll bounce back this year.
July 20, 2012
Votes: +0

Kofax said:

Kofax
... Re: Weber Stuff

Only problem is, now that Weber is signed to the offer sheet, he cannot be traded for a full year. So Nashville either matches and keeps a disgruntled Weber for a year, or they let him go for nothing to Philly.

Nashville was in talks with a few teams, including Philadelphia, but supposedly talks weren't going well, and Holmgren got frustrated and decided to sign him to the offer sheet.

I figure Nashville has to match, pay him for the one year and trade him the next season to get something in return.

On a side note, the Legion of doom line 2.0, a significantly optimistic view in my opinion. Some of those guys might be Renberg good, maybe get close to LeClaire good, but none will be Lindros (pre-concussion) good. They would be an intimidating line for sure, but I can't see them putting up enough points to really come close to comparing.
July 20, 2012
Votes: +1

fzusher said:

fzusher
Weber stuff Check out the first 2 items in the July 19 6 PM segment of Prime Time Sports (here). Revealing interview with Weber's agent, followed by good discussion of it and Nashville's options between Elliotte Friedman, John Shannon, and Jim Hughson. Bottom line (between the lines): With Suter gone, Weber also wants out of Nashville, which he sees entering a rebuilding phase, plus he prefers to raise his family elsewhere.

Taking Capgeek's numbers, Philly can fit Weber under the cap, just barely, right now, even with Pronger's salalry counting. However they still have Voracek to resign, but if Pronger is on LTIR they're set. It'll give them 6 Ds with cap hits of 3.5M+. Without Pronger. If Pronger makes a surprising comeback next playoff, as the roster stands now Niklas Grossman is their 7th D.

I would not be surprised if Poile and Holmgren, who have a long history of trades, work one out here. If Weber wants out, Poile will not force him to stay in Nashville for the rest of his career. Because of their history, and because of his tight cap, Holmgren will want to accommodate a deal that is face saving for Nashville and prevents this from being franchise killing for Nashville. So Nashville matches, then trades him to Philly.

I'd expect a forward (top young/prospect) and a D who can play now heading back, along with a 1st rounder and either another first or a second. Hughson was talking about Coburn and that makes the most sense to me, but he's got a modified NTC. Meszaros is the only guy without a clause. For the forward Hughson talks about Nashville being interested in Schenn or Coutourier. I don't see Schenn - the just acquired his brother - but Coutourier makes sense because they have long term replacements in the system. Voracek might too but he's not really a Nashville type player plus Philly's shallower on the wing that at center. In fact, such a move would free up cap for philly to look for another winger.
July 20, 2012
Votes: +0
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