Fantasy Prospects Report - buy it here.

 

Some-off-the-cuff thoughts - "rambles", if you will - that popped into my head as I bounce around the Internet world/ procrastinate from writing player profiles for the Forecaster:

 

1. If Patrick Sharp gets traded - and I'm lukewarm to that idea, but it could happen - then Michael Frolik gets 65 points. If not, 50 again.

 

2. Vladimir Tarasenko staying in Russia this season means Alex Steen goes from 50 points to over 60. Little roster moves/ decisions such as these ones have intangible, but very big, fantasy impact and they happen every day.

 

To expand on why Dany Heatley will improve by 15 points next season or more:

1. 79 points is not a big leap of faith for him. He's done if five times, including 18 months ago

2. He's 30. That's still his prime.

3. He played regular season games with a broken hand. Notice his assist total did not really go down, but his goals went from about 40 to 26.

 

I'm so certain that Boston will win at home tonight that I'm already planning to have some guys over for Game 7 in my man-cave. Game 7 will be a one goal game, probably overtime, and flip a coin on the winner...but I'm leaning towards Vancouver, who I said would win in the first place back in April.

 

Brett Connolly has signed an ELC with the Lightning. I expect him to get a long look in training camp and give better than even odds that he makes the team. If so, it could push Downie or Purcell to the other wing.

 

Interesting take by On the Forecheck on why the Preds should re-sign Joel Ward and trade Sergei Kostitsyn if they could only re-sign one of them (though they would prefer both be re-signed).

 

Question on the Dobber Sports Facebook page:

In a standard H2H Keeper, do I trade my Byfuglien for his Heatley

Answer:  Yes. Byfuglien loses dual eligibility next year (did he already? I can’t remember). I think he ups his points very slightly though, but the PIM should slip. Meanwhile, Heatley played hurt and I think he’ll get at least 15 more points next season.

 

Looking forward to meeting you Toronto readers on Friday – the DobberHockey Event will be held at the Sports Centre Café at Yonge/St. Clair from 6pm until – whenever. So drop in and meet Justin Goldman and myself, as well as some of the forum members you may be familiar with. Gus Katsaros of McKeen’s has told me he will be there, as well as Anthony Lancione, our NHL Picks writer. Just walk in, grab yourself a drink at the bar and come to the room they have reserved for me. Let’s take a look at your fantasy team, and talk some puck!

 

Anything else you want me to tackle on this slow news day? Back later this morning...

 

So who does the Old Spice Guy like for the Cup?

 

 

 


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Comments (24)add comment

Puckhead said:

Puckhead
... While I am hoping that Boston can win it all in Game 7 on Wednesday, and I can't fault fellow readers, and friends of mine for choosing Vancouver, I have to ask how anyone, Canucks fans et al, can actually think any Vancouver Canuck is deserving of the Conn Smythe? There have been different leaders for them in every series, but nobody has really been there throughout the playoffs. Win or lose the Conn Smythe has to go Tim Thomas, who has been absolutely unbeievable. He has kept his team in every single game of the series, and battled in every game of their entire playoffs.
June 14, 2011
Votes: +1

Kris said:

4horsemen
Frolik @Mick

hahahhaaha....good point! Dosn't change my mind but a keen observation no less
June 13, 2011
Votes: +0

Adrian Keogh said:

Goalin Crazy UK
LOL some consolation to Luongo, it is apparent Craig Button wishes to fellate him! By court order, Button's Resume is now having the word Journalist replaced by Homer!
June 13, 2011
Votes: +0

Jeremy Wark said:

jer_33
Cancucks win tonight... Just placed my bets on the Nucks winning tonight.

I have a sense that this game will be the best of the series, down to the wire but the Canucks will win the Cup in Boston tonight. I'll predict a 4-2 score with an empty netter. Kesler wins the Conne Smythe.
June 13, 2011
Votes: -1

mick said:

hawkdog
Frolik Just keep in Mind, Florida gave up on Grabner as well. Maybe not relevant but ........
June 13, 2011
Votes: +0

Kris said:

4horsemen
Frolik I just don't see top end potential with this kid. Florida pretty much gave up on him, he floundered in Chicago and it's a bit of a stretch to be still calling him a prospet. In fact, I think he'll be on a short leash next year and a guy like Morin or Bickell could push him off a scoring line altogether. The guy isn't suited to a bottom six role so they'd certainly try to get him 2nd line time but the investment wasn't huge so the leash will be short. If I owned him I'd be shopping him to see if anyone still sees him as a top end talent. The risks are quite high and the reward is continually dropping in my estimation.
June 13, 2011
Votes: +0

Ed Cunningham said:

Ed.
... Sorry, Friday evening.
June 13, 2011
Votes: +0

Ed Cunningham said:

Ed.
Dobberhockey meetup Sadly I have to work Saturday evening, which truly sucks, considering that quite a few people I respect greatly will be attending this event. Any chance some of you guys will do Twitter updates (I follow Dobber, Angus, Katsaros and Goldman) so I know if people are still around, and if it's worth popping my head in when I finish work? I won't be done until 11:15 or so unfortunately.
June 13, 2011
Votes: +0

Jeff Angus said:

angus
... Heatley is done as a 75+ point player. Aside from hand injury, his shoulder is messed up. He was never a great skater to begin with. No longer has the shot he used to.

Why on earth would Chicago trade Sharp? Versatile, fair contract. They could bring up a rookie like Morin to save cap space and trade a depth forward if they get desperate.

I am excited to see Brett Connolly next year. I think he has a great shot at cracking TB's roster.
June 13, 2011
Votes: +0

Budde said:

rbudde
... @Myatt--pull the trigger!
@Pengwin7--I agree with Dobber on this one: Heatley for 80 pts, Green for 70 pts. Too much talent to ignore. I'd put Frolik down for 55 pts next year--Chicago's lines uncertain and Frolik's desire questionable.
June 13, 2011
Votes: +0

Rob Myatt said:

robmyatt
heatly could/should I trade Heatly/Cammalleri for Tavares/E. Kane?
Goal Heavy Leage
I'm rebuilding.
June 13, 2011 | url
Votes: +0

Dobber said:

Dobber
... They've moved away from that style for one whole year and it failed to get them anywhere in the playoffs. I don't think Ovechkin was happy with that style. I also think that when Green played, he played hurt. Had he played at full strength, the Caps would have scored more and he would have had his 70.
June 13, 2011
Votes: +0

Isle B. said:

Isle B.
... Green wouldn't have hit 50 last season even if he was healthy. I don't think he'll ever hit 70 again simply because the Caps have moved away from the freewheeling style that enabled Green's gaudy numbers. And should get traded and play somewhere else, I doubt that that team would both give him free reign to play as a rover and have as much offensive talent as the Caps.
June 13, 2011
Votes: +0

jacques oeuf said:

hammer2003
... Heatley is lazy and not a good fit with Thornton. His point total this year was pretty reflective of his quality of play, injury or not. That being said I'd have to agree that 79 points is very possible for him just given that he is always going to get lots of ice time and pp time with quality players. It would be great if they could find some way to motivate him to actually play up to his contract (which is going to become Gomez-like if he keeps deteriorating at this rate). I'd only draft/trade for him if it was a real buy low situation.
June 13, 2011
Votes: +0

Dobber said:

Dobber
also Green will get to 70 points (not 50 - 50 is what you would say when you are afraid to put it out there, because it gives you 20 extra points for error so odds of you looking bad are slim) with or without Orlov - only health matters here. If he plays 80 games (he won't), he'll get 70 points.
June 13, 2011
Votes: +1

Dobber said:

Dobber
Terrible 3 "comments" Pengwin - you can't turn off players based on one season. Frolik is still a prospect. How did he do in the playoffs when he played with Bolland?

If Steen hits 60 points, it will be thanks to squeaking onto the power play. He wouldn't get on the PP if the rookie was here. Tarasenko is more of an impact player than Orlov, and Steen is not as established as Green so that entire statement I don't see any logic to it.

Heatley - not sure the point of your argument. Did you get your coffee this morning? A broken hand can't reduce a player from 40 goals to 25? 15% shooting percentage down to 12%...isn't that stat just expanding on my point further?


Unfair arguments here, that I KNOW were brought on by lack of coffee, or perhaps a terrible commute into work!smilies/cool.gif
June 13, 2011
Votes: +1

Pengwin7 said:

Pengwin7
Terrible 3 "rambles" 1. Frolik will not hit 65pts. No chance. The guy has developed a trend of flinging useless junk on net. His shooting percentage has gone down-down-down. Q will not allow him to waste opportunities on the PP or regular strength like that. Even if Sharp is gone, Frolik does not get Sharp's PP1 slot. Players with moderate talent do not hit 65pts unless they play on PP1.

2. Steen may hit 60pts... but it will have NOTHING to do with Tarasenko. This is like me saying that I think Green will get back to 50pts if Orlov stays in the AHL.

3. Heatley, 79pts - bah, no chance. If you think a guy can get back to 79pts you have to provide some tangible reasons such as:
*Heatley's output should go up because he is a 15% shooter who only shot 12% this year
*Heatley's output should go up because eventually he will be back on PP1
*Heatley's output should go up because eventually he will get back on Thornton's line

Heatley being injured is just one of several small reasons for his decline.
Even if he is 100% healthy next year, if he plays all year with Couture AND on PP2, he will finish around 70pts. He needs to be with Thornton AND on PP1 to hit 79pts.


Dobber - these are some pretty poor ramblings... about as bad as Frolik's shooting.
June 13, 2011
Votes: +1

mick said:

hawkdog
Heater Can you provide a few reasons why you think Heater will get 15 more points? or is this a gut feeling type call?

I think we will see a better game in Boston.
June 13, 2011
Votes: +0

Dobber said:

Dobber
... Marincin was well liked in this year's Prospects Report
June 13, 2011
Votes: +0

eribelan said:

eribelan
Marincin @Budde
Marincin is the future for EDM at the blue line !!
June 13, 2011
Votes: +0

Steffen said:

Steffen
Bang on for the SCF prediction. Hard to argue with your Stanley Cup Final predictions: Boston wins Monday, Vancouver ekes it out in game seven. This has been one of best series ever (and I'd keep Thomas over Luongo).

S.Kostitsyn > J.Ward. A hunch.

Byfuglien > Heatley (assuming D scarcity applies). Dustin will rock in Winnipeg. Dany will never repeat his peak; he's too comfortable in California.
June 13, 2011
Votes: +0

Keith J. Sauter said:

Sandåsjön Platypus
Byfuglien Does losing dual eligibility really hurt him that much? I had him on both my teams (1-year leagues, won both, thanks for the help BTW) and I think MAYBE one game on one team I had him as a RW - his value is as a D, and that's what he's going to be. Whether or not I would keep him over Heatley is another question (though my first impulse says I would), but I do know that dual eligibility was not a factor for me when I drafted him.
June 12, 2011
Votes: +1

Budde said:

rbudde
ps Defensemen Sena Acolatse and Martin Marincin both had an outstanding season with the Cougars. Keep and eye on them.
June 12, 2011
Votes: +0

Budde said:

rbudde
on connolly I am from Prince George and been watching Connolly and the Cougars. Connolly is a special player: smooth-skating and skilled with the puck. He cuts to the middle a lot in the WHL games. This produces a lot of penalties by opposing teams and plenty of scoring chances for him and his linemates. However, I worry about him getting leveled in the NHL. He reminds me a bit of Mason Raymond who always seems to be leaving himself vulnerable to big hits. While I am a fan, I worry about injuries with him. Already he seems to have serious bandaid boy potential. No matter what I hope TB develops him slow (See Turris for alternative).
June 12, 2011
Votes: -1
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