Eberle

 

The value of a winger can easily be identified by interpreting the same two stats used to identify the value of blue-liners, which is PP ice-time and SOG (shots on goal). The reasoning behind it is very simple. PP ice-time usually separates players who are offensive-minded from those that are defensive-oriented. Similarly with SOG, the more a winger shoots, the higher the chance it goes into the net or creates offensive chances.

 

NOTE: These ramblings are based on one-year leagues, and not meant for keeper/dynasty leagues.

 

I also used the positions as listed onnhl.com, so there may be some discrepancies in position compared to your league settings. Don’t worry too much if a clear cut right winger isn’t listed in this column, I assure you that it will be covered in the left wing or center column in the next two weeks.

 

Anaheim


Name

Points

SOG

TOI

PPTOI

Status

Teemu Selanne

15

49

18:04

4:10

Stand Pat

Corey Perry

11

57

22:16

4:22

Sell

Bobby Ryan

9

46

19:22

1:55

Sell

Devante Smith-Pelly

2

15

10:12

0:08

WW

George Parros

1

3

4:41

0:00

WW

Andrew Gordon

1

20

12:05

0:01

WW

 

At the ripe, old age of 41, the Finnish Flash appears to still have plenty of gas left in the tank. Nearly half of his points have come from the PP which is a great sign for his owners. Perry’s 50 goal season last year was quite a feat. The main reason was because of his high shooting percentage. This campaign he’s returned back to his career norm, which explains the decrease in his point production so far this season. Only one of Ryan’s nine points has come from the PP. He’s just not seeing any time on the big unit, which will severely limit his production with the man advantage. I would try to dangle both Perry or Ryan on the trade block and see what they might fetch, if the deal is right then pull the trigger, if it isn’t then stand pat.

 

Calgary


Name

Points

SOG

TOI

PPTOI

Status

Jarome Iginla

9

42

19:58

3:25

Buy

Lee Stempniak

7

31

16:11

1:40

WW

David Moss

5

36

13:52

1:18

WW

Tom Kostopoulos

4

21

10:52

0:08

WW

Tim Jackman

2

17

8:49

0:43

WW

P.L. Leblond

0

3

4:51

0:03

WW

 

You probably don’t need me to tell you that all of the right wing fantasy value lies with Iggy in Calgary. He’s the heart and soul of the team and will continue to be the focal point of the Flames’ offense. An interesting fact that might interest you is that Iggy has a 1.09 point-per-game average after the All-Star Break since 2005 (163 points in 150 contests). Now might be a good time to make a pre-emptive strike in acquiring his services for the stretch run.

 

Chicago


Name

Points

SOG

TOI

PPTOI

Status

Marian Hossa

18

63

20:18

3:31

Buy

Andrew Brunette

7

23

14:10

2:36

WW

Michael Frolik

7

44

15:37

0:18

WW

Jamal Mayers

4

19

8:47

0:01

WW

 

After a few injury-plagued seasons, Hossa finally looks healthy and back to his old self this campaign. He’s on pace for 303 SOG, which is the same rate that he fired when he was in a Thrasher uniform, back in 2005-07, when he notched 92 and 100 points respectively. Can he pull off that type of production in Chicago?

 

Columbus


Name

Points

SOG

TOI

PPTOI

Status

Rick Nash

12

51

19:33

4:20

Buy Low

Derek Dorsett

2

16

11:48

0:04

WW

Cam Atkinson

1

9

13:40

2:25

WW

Jared Boll

0

1

8:49

0:05

WW

 

Much like the situation in Calgary, Nash pretty much owns all of the fantasy value amongst right wingers in Columbus. All of the numbers point towards him maintaining a similar, if not slightly better, production as the season progresses. Nash’s current 7.8 shooting percentage is the lowest of his NHL tenure (career average 13 percent), so look for that to adjust itself within the next few weeks. Dorsett continues to be a great source for PIMs, he won’t contribute much in the other stats, but if you’re after the penalties then he’s your guy.

 

Colorado


Name

Points

SOG

TOI

PPTOI

Status

Milan Hejduk

12

55

17:35

2:48

Buy

David Jones

10

34

15:42

2:29

Watch

Chuck Kobasew

3

20

12:22

0:54

WW

 

Hejduk’s on pace for a career-high of 265 SOG, along with a very under-the-radar 57 points. If you need help on the RW, it probably wouldn’t be a bad idea to invest some stocks into Hejduk. Jones is one of the purest snipers in the league (career 16.9 shooting percentage). If he can ever manage to stay healthy, a 35-goal season certainly isn’t out of the question. Over the last three contests, he’s spent 78.9 percent of his even-strength ice-time alongside Matt Duchene. If he can maintain that spot, look for Jones to rack up a whole bunch of goals by season’s end.

 

Dallas


Name

Points

SOG

TOI

PPTOI

Status

Michael Ryder

11

33

16:37

3:04

Buy

Adam Burish

8

15

13:19

0:48

WW

Radek Dvorak

6

18

13:24

0:07

WW

Krystofer Barch

0

0

6:39

0:00

WW

 

Ryder’s experiencing career resurgence in Dallas. He hasn’t produced at this clip since the days he was donning a Habs uniform back in 2006. Look for him to maintain his pace with all of the PPTOI that he’s receiving in Big D. His current 18.2 percent shooting efficiency is a tad high compared to his career average, so expect that to take a slight dip as the season progresses.

 

Detroit


Name

Points

SOG

TOI

PPTOI

Status

Johan Franzen

16

40

17:11

2:53

Sell High

Danny Cleary

5

52

16:42

2:26

Buy

Todd Bertuzzi

3

17

13:17

1:03

WW

Patrick Eaves

1

15

10:57

0:07

WW

 

If you knock out Franzen’s 27-game season in 2009-10, he averages 73.6 contests per season, so expect him to miss a few contests due to knick knack injuries as the season rolls along. Another factor to keep in mind is that his career-high has only been 59 points, so his current 87 point pace is definitely out of the ordinary. Now might be a good time to sell high on Franzen before his bubble bursts. Cleary has tallied right around the 40-point and 160 SOG mark in each of the previous five seasons. His current 3.8 shooting percentage is well below his career average, so look for that to pick up fairly soon.

 

Edmonton


Name

Points

SOG

TOI

PPTOI

Status

Jordan Eberle

13

35

16:28

3:25

Buy

Ales Hemsky

4

5

14:53

1:59

Watch

 

The “kid line” in Edmonton is looking awfully good at the moment and most of that could be attributed to the play of Eberle. The only knock on him is that he’s not firing a lot of SOG, but that’s easily forgotten with his point production. There’s nothing much more to add with Hemmer, when he plays, he’s gold, but he’s also a major band-aid boy when it comes to time missed. Keep a watch sign on him, but also consider buyer beware.

 

Los Angeles


Name

Points

SOG

TOI

PPTOI

Status

Justin Williams

14

41

16:52

2:42

Stand Pat

Dustin Brown

11

46

19:23

3:56

Sell

Trent Hunter

2

10

10:48

1:09

WW

Kevin Westgarth

1

3

5:23

0:00

WW

 

Williams is loving life in LA. He’s spent 73.3 percent of his overall ice-time alongside superstar Anze Kopitar. The trio of Simon Gagne, Kopitar and Williams have combined for 26 points which sits amongst the top five most productive lines in the entire league.

 

frozen pool

 

As long as he can maintain that role, he’ll be fantasy gold. Brown’s never really been a big offensive point-getter, so don’t expect him to consistently light up the scoresheets. He has always had a “big name” attachment and someone in your league might be willing to fall into that trap. If you are a Brown owner, it might be a smart idea to toss a few lines out there to see what you can fetch in return.

 

Minnesota


Name

Points

SOG

TOI

PPTOI

Status

Devin Setoguchi

8

36

17:18

3:02

Buy Low

Cal Clutterbuck

4

29

15:56

2:43

Watch

Nick Johnson

4

20

11:22

0:08

WW

Brett Bulmer

3

7

11:01

0:29

WW

Brad Staubitz

0

4

5:56

0:00

WW

 

The Wild are continuing to shuffle their lines in the hope of finding chemistry amongst their forwards. Until they develop some consistency, Seto will continue to toil in mediocrity. With that said, he’s still receiving plenty of quality ice-time that when he does find that chemistry he could bust out big time. So now might be a great time to buy low on him. Clutterbuck continues to be a league leader in the HIT department. Another positive is that he’s garnering a bit of PP time on the Wild’s second PP unit as well. If you’re looking for a swing for the fences pick, it might not be a bad move to consider Clutterbuck.

 

Nashville


Name

Points

SOG

TOI

PPTOI

Status

Patric Hornqvist

11

42

15:06

3:12

Stand Pat

Matt Halishchuk

6

24

14:29

0:15

WW

Martin Erat

5

14

18:41

3:01

Buy

Jordin Tootoo

3

21

13:32

0:08

WW

Niclas Bergfors

2

11

7:50

0:39

WW

Brian McGrattan

1

3

5:15

0:02

WW

Zack Stortini

0

1

4:53

0:00

WW

 

After starting 2011-12 with a goose egg after seven contests, Hornqvist is on fire with a seven-game point scoring streak in which he has tallied 11 points. He has had similar streaks in his career, so it isn’t out of the ordinary for him to put up numbers like this. One thing you that you need to keep in mind is that since 2008 the Preds as a team has only produced one 60+ point forward, so keep your expectations in check for Hornqvist. Erat missed the first part of the season dealing with an upper body injury. He’s very similar to Cleary in a way that he’s pretty consistent in terms of his production. Look for him to tally right around the 50 point mark for an eighth consecutive season.

 

Phoenix


Name

Points

SOG

TOI

PPTOI

Status

Radim Vrbata

13

45

18:40

3:47

Watch

Shane Doan

10

51

20:05

4:12

Stand Pat

Mikkel Boedker

4

17

13:30

1:03

WW

 

After starting the season with 10 points in the first nine contests, Doan has quickly quietened down with zero in the last six. He’s a pretty streaky player, so expect another hot-streak in the next little while. The TOI and PPTOI that he’s currently receiving will ensure that his streak of nine consecutive 55+ point seasons will remain intact. Vrbata is another one of those players that’s taking the NHL by storm at the moment. He’s developing plenty of positive chemistry with Ray Whitney and Martin Hanzal, but it’s completely unsustainable for the entire season. It probably wouldn’t be too much to ask for a 55-60 point season, but anything more and you’re probably expecting too much. At just 32 percent Yahoo! owned, he’s probably worth a flier just to ride the hot-streak.

 

San Jose


Name

Points

SOG

TOI

PPTOI

Status

Joe Pavelski

17

47

20:59

3:38

Buy

Martin Havlat

8

27

18:20

2:43

Stand Pat

Benn Ferriero

1

9

10:23

0:02

WW

 

After spending last year toiling on the third line, Pavelski got a big boost this campaign as he’s spent 88.4 percent of his overall ice-time alongside superstar Joe Thornton. The added ice-time has seen mini-Joe make a solid jump towards the top of the league in terms of point-production. If things remain status quo, look for him to maintain his current scoring clip. Havlat missed a bit of time at the start of the season dealing with a shoulder injury, but seems to be back in form. His current 0.73 point-per-game ratio is right in line with his career 0.82 numbers, so expect somewhere along those lines by season’s end.

 

St. Louis


Name

Points

SOG

TOI

PPTOI

Status

David Backes

8

42

18:31

2:04

Stand Pat

Matt D’Agostini

6

34

14:58

1:52

WW

Jamie Langenbrunner

6

30

15:34

0:37

WW

Chris Stewart

5

44

17:29

2:14

Sell

Ryan Reaves

0

3

5:36

0:00

WW

 

The Blues made the first coaching change of the season with the removal of Davis Payne for Ken Hitchcock. The following table highlights the major changes that have been made.

 

Name

Pre-Hitch TOI

With Hitch TOI

Pre-Hitch PP TOI

With Hitch PP TOI

Andy McDonald

19:01

NA

3:29

NA

Alex Steen

18:41

20:33

2:13

2:43

TJ Oshie

18:05

19:54

2:05

2:08

David Backes

18:02

20:37

1:56

2:41

Chris Stewart

17:33

17:13

2:22

1:42

Patrik Berglund

16:55

18:00

2:30

2:34

Vladmir Sobotka

16:12

16:04

0:44

0:12

Jamie Langenbrunner

15:38

15:21

0:33

0:54

Jason Arnott

15:34

15:55

1:38

2:12

Matt D’Agostini

14:48

15:44

1:41

2:41

 

I’ve never been a big fan of “offense by committee” type situations, as this is exactly the scenario that I pictured at the start of the season. The offense is so evenly shared, that it’s darn near impossible to try to predict who’s going to be the consistent offensive leader of the team. I’d personally try to sell all of the Blues’ forwards, as I don’t think any of them are going to be valuable fantasy assets in one-year formats. Backes and D’Agostini seem to have a slight uptick with the arrival of Hitch, while Stewart seems to be the odd man out.

 

Vancouver


Name

Points

SOG

TOI

PPTOI

Status

Jannik Hansen

7

27

14:42

0:09

WW

Dale Weise

3

18

9:05

0:06

WW

 

Not much fantasy value on the right wing in Vancouver, when it comes to offense.

 

Questions or comments? Like always I’ll be ready and willing to discuss them with you in the comments section below. We’ll see you next week, as we go through the Indicators of Success 2011 for left wingers from the Western Conference.

 


Write comment
Comments (5)add comment

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Canucks/Burrows

Yeah it's just NHL.com listings... they don't usually have the exact same listings as pool providers. It was just easier for me to use NHL.com positions to organize the tables than to flip through all of the providers to figure out who's LW/RW/C then have to chop and change all the tables.

If they're not listed in this article, they'll be covered in the next 2.

R - you'll just have to wait till next week for Burrows smilies/wink.gif
November 15, 2011
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Seto

The thing is eventually he'll get back into the top PP unit, I think it's just a matter of time. The trio of Seto, Heatley and Koivu were absolutely lights out during the pre-season (yes I know that was a long time ago, and it's the pre-season), but the chemistry was certainly there, which kinda boggles my mind why it just disappeared during the regular season...

He just isn't going to continue to average 1:46 for the rest of the year...

Also it's the consistency factor that I brought up as well, last 3 games breakdown of...

45.66V;96 BOUCHARD,PIERRE-MARC - 7 CULLEN,MATT - 10 SETOGUCHI,DEVIN
28.9V;15 HEATLEY,DANY - 9 KOIVU,MIKKO - 10 SETOGUCHI,DEVIN
4.62&#xPP;15 HEATLEY,DANY - 9 KOIVU,MIKKO - 10 SETOGUCHI,DEVIN
3.47V;7 CULLEN,MATT - 10 SETOGUCHI,DEVIN
2.31V;22 CLUTTERBUCK,CAL - 7 CULLEN,MATT - 10 SETOGUCHI,DEVIN
2.31V;9 KOIVU,MIKKO - 10 SETOGUCHI,DEVIN

There hasn't been a line where he's been averaging 60=70+ percent of his time to develop that chemistry. He's been bounced around all over the place, so I think once that settles the production will be more consistent.
November 15, 2011
Votes: +0

R said:

Hey Robbie
Burrows I guess you don't count Burrows as a RW for Vancouver? How would you rate him in terns of Buy/Sell?
November 15, 2011
Votes: +0

Austin said:

austeane
... Awesome column as ususal!
I love how the Canucks have only two right wingers... I would give Hansen a pickup however; has about a 10% chance of being Burrows 2.0. Burr only had about as much skill as Hansen before he was put with the Sedins.
November 15, 2011
Votes: +0

Pengwin7 said:

Pengwin7
Good, except Seto Love all of these except Setoguchi.
I'm not sure I've ever drafted or picked him up in any fantasy pool... ever.

Like most clubs, when a team struggles the first change they make on their PP is to replace their weakest talent. Seto has been replaced on PP1 a few weeks ago. Yeo's been typically pairing Zidlicy-PMB on the points with one of Cullen/Clutterbuck/Latend is playing forward with Koivu & Heatley.

Seto down to 9th on the MIN PP-time list over the last 5 and slumping badly this month.
http://forecaster.thehockeynews.com/hockeynews/hockey/ft.cgi?ppbwest

I think its a mistake to be looking at full-season PPTOI numbers for each player. Last 5 games is my look-back-period... and sometimes I'll go as far as 10games... but the first 7-10 games of the season are way in the past now.

Setoguchi's opportunity has come and gone. I wouldn't buy low. (Just my 2 cents)


November 15, 2011
Votes: +2
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