RyanMcDonagh USA Today

 

Ryan McDonagh has established himself as an elite defensive defenseman. It's time for him to do the same as an offensive defenseman.


 

Ryan McDonagh isn't just one of the best young defensemen in hockey, he is one of the best defensemen in hockey. He really can do it all - defend, skate, pass, shoot, create - and the Rangers have really leaned on him over the past little while with the absence of Marc Staal. McDonagh has proven to be up to the task, creating a very effective shutdown pairing alongside Dan Girardi.

 

However, with Staal now healthy, the Rangers may want to give McDonagh more of an opportunity to show off his offensive abilities. He will still be relied upon to play heavy minutes against really good players, but new Rangers coach Alain Vigneault is a proponent of activating defensemen in the offense as much as possible.

 

Reason #1 - Coaching change


McDonagh flourished as an NHL player playing under John Tortorella, but he will flourish as an offensive contributor under Alain Vigneault. Vigneault likes to create roles for his players, and in Vancouver he leaned heavily on Christian Ehrhoff and Alex Edler from an offensive standpoint. I could see McDonagh playing a similar role to the one Edler had with the Canucks - a steady dose of offensive zone starts, tough minutes (but not the toughest), and a wealth of ice time on the power play.

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Reason #2 - Power play ice time

 

In 2013, McDonagh averaged only 0:38 per game on the PP (and 2:41 per game on the PK). Staal, Girardi, Michael Del Zotto, Anton Stralman, and Steve Eminger all averaged more man advantage ice time per game than McDonagh did. Even with his elite defensive abilities, he should be playing more in all important situations than most of the aformentioned defensemen.

 

And going back to 2011-12, McDonagh saw only 0:37 per game on the PP (fifth among Rangers defensemen). He still had seven goals and 32 points that season, which is really impressive considering the lack of power play ice time he received.

 

In Vancouver, Edler has averaged close to (or above) 3:30 of PP ice time per game over the past few years. Now there could be some competition from Del Zotto for this role with New York, and it may make more sense to give Del Zotto more of a pure offensive role (as he isn't nearly as good as McDonagh defensively). But sooner or later McDonagh is going to force his way into more offensive situations. He's simply too good to continue to play the role of shutdown defenseman.

 

Including the playoffs over those past two campaigns, McDonagh has played the third-most minutes (4,021) in the NHL behind only the Kings’ Drew Doughty (4,206) and Girardi (4,170).

 

Reason #3 - Talent

 

McDonagh played the second toughest minutes on the Rangers back end last season behind Girardi (a 45% offensive zone start rate combined with a high quality of competition number). However, he still found a way to drive possession from the defensive end to the offensive end of the rink. His Corsi Relative rating of 6.0 was second only to Stralman, who was given a very sheltered offensive role.

 

Talent and opportunity are both required for a player to break out offensively. McDonagh has proven he has the talent, and under Vigneault, he will very likely be given the opportunity, too. Don't be surprised to see his name in the Norris mix for the forseeable future (along with a 50+ point statline).

 

Vigneault and Tortorella use their defensemen differently. Tortorella did want his defensemen to create offense, but they also had to block a lot of shots and McDonagh was really focused on shuting down opposing stars more than creating offense. Tortorella was also forced to give McDonagh these tough assignments because of the Staal concussion/eye injury. Vigneault will have the luxury of reuniting Staal and Girardi as the shutdown pair, if he so chooses.

 

 

2013-14 Top 10 Sleeper Picks - #8 Drew Shore

2013-14 Top 10 Sleeper Picks - #9 Cal Clutterbuck

2013-14 Top 10 Sleeper Picks - #10 Jaden Schwartz

 

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FG

There will be plenty more of sleepers (just like McDonagh) in the 2013-14 DobberHockey Fantasy Guide, released on August 1st. 


The beauty of an online (PDF) release, and what separates us from the competition, is that we are able to update the DobberHockey Guide throughout the rest of the summer and right up to puck drop in early October.

 

Other guides released in magazine format have to be written and submitted for publishing in late June with quick updates on free agency in early July. 

 

As we all know, a lot can still happen in August and September. How about a strong training camp from a bubble player or a rookie? How about a late summer trade or signing?

 

The fantasy impact(s) of these moves can be significant, and we will have you covered.

 

Pick up the 2013-14 Fantasy Guide here. 

 

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Comments (4)add comment

MJ Flex said:

MJ Flex
... Huge buy low. But I believe in his work ethic and where he says he's driven to as effective offensively as he is defensively. Plus MDZ is coming off surgery may not be in shape for training camp so the ball may be handed to him when the season begins.
July 30, 2013
Votes: +0

ross10019 said:

ross10019
... Pengwin, I too am not sure that McD will be given significantly more PP time. That's why I doubt he will be hitting the 50-point threshold. But I do not believe he needs lots of PP time to get into the 40-45 range. He'll be able to do that simply by improvement of his already considerable offensive skills and more confidence in his ability to pinch in, join the rush, etc., all of which should be promoted by AV's approach to generating offense. He's already had seasons of 32 points as a 22 year old (30 of which were ES) and 33 points (prorated) as a 23 year old (equivalent of 31 at ES), and last year's point totals don't tell the whole story as he started off horribly with 0 pts in his first 9 games. I think 40+ is easily attainable. Ultimately, given his skillset, I do think he'll see increased PP time, it's a no-brainer, especially if Staal returns to form and he can bear more of the shutdown responsibilities that McD now has. So I agree with you, in part, he's already hitting 30+ ES points per year, so I dont' see why he would regress to 25-30 as you suggested, to me that should increase to 35-40 ES points per year and then any PP points added on top.
July 30, 2013
Votes: +0

Pengwin7 said:

Pengwin7
Disagree I'm not sure I'm on board with McDonagh putting up offensive number this season.
AV finished the last 10 games last season playing a mostly 4-1 PP with Edler on the point (and must've been a Sedin or Kesler on the other).
NYR also typically plays a lot of 4-1 PP with just one defenseman on the point.

McDonagh may be able to play the PP... but I'm not sure he'll get the chance.
He can certainly put up 25-30 ESP... but he'll need the 10-15 PPP to be significant in fantasy leagues.

I just haven't seen anything about AV or the NYR that suggests that they'll run 2D consistently on either PP unit. (especially with B.Rich & now Brassard often manning the point).

If McDonagh does find 2+ min of PP-time per game... he'll indeed be a sleeper.
But I don't think NYR will use him that way.
July 30, 2013
Votes: +0

ross10019 said:

ross10019
... Nice piece Jeff. I am a huge McD booster - not sure about hitting the 50s but I'm pretty sure he'll destroy 40 this year and be a consistent 40-50 point guy going forward. That plus his great peripherals is going to make his a stud D in multicat leagues for many years to come, and he'll be a solid contributor in points only leagues too. I see him as having an overall fantasy impact similar to another Ryan (Suter) but with much higher SOG totals and better plus/minus (will perennially be among the top 10 in the NHL in that stat category in my view).
July 30, 2013
Votes: +0
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