Sedins

 

In two of my keeper leagues, the draft pick is pretty important. In one of them, a team has already traded their 2014 first rounder. The 2012 first rounder has been moved in each of them. But there could be an NHL Entry Draft coming very soon that will be so weak that a first round pick in your keeper league will be the equivalent of a late second rounder this past summer.

 

You see, the NHL is considering pushing the age of draft eligibility back until a player is 19. Naturally, they can’t do something so drastic without the permission of the NHLPA. That permission won’t happen out of the goodness of their heart. No, it will need to be negotiated as part of the next collective bargaining agreement (CBA). The CBA expires in July of 2011, meaning the earliest the rule gets implemented is 2012. The NHLPA also has the right to extend the current agreement until July of 2012, which would push this change back a year. In addition to that, the two parties could agree to give it a two-year waiting period, or they could phase it in six-month increments, in which case 19-year-olds won’t be the age needed for prospects until 2014.

 

What this means is that there will be an incredibly weak Entry Draft. Or, if they decide on pushing the age of eligibility back six months one year and the other six the following year, it could mean a “fairly” weak Entry Draft for two years. Either way, in trade discussions I am not quite as interested in 2012 or 2013 draft picks. I don’t discount them, I just tone their value down a tad.

 

Do I believe the NHL and NHLPA will come to an agreement on this? No. If they were to come to such an agreement, it opens the door to lawsuits. After all, can an organization legally not give an 18-year-old – legally an adult - employment because of his age? In 1977 Ken Linseman didn’t think so and he sued the league. The suit was later dropped when he signed to play in the WHA, but it opened the door for 18-year-olds in the NHL Draft. So will the NHL want this headache? I’m sure they have enough lawyers to word the rule properly and make it work, but it still seems highly unlikely.

 

That being said, even a slim possibility is enough to bring down the value of any draft picks in those two summers slightly in my books. Just something to keep an eye on…

 

Meanwhile…

With the Vancouver Olympics just around the corner, the Canucks embarked on a 14-game road trip Saturday. Naturally, as a fantasy enthusiast my first instinct would be take a look at some of the home/road stats of the players and adjust/prepare my roster accordingly for the long road trip ahead. Thankfully, they began the trip in Toronto, which is good for padding the stats of a lot players. That game aside, here is what you can expect if trends continue:

-          For Henrik Sedin, his points-per-game at home is 1.58, whereas on the road it “slips” to 1.26. This trip will be when Alexander Ovechkin passes him and takes over the NHL scoring lead. To maintain the lead, Henrik would need to continue in that 1.40-1.50 range.

-          Ryan Kesler goes M.I.A.. He has over a point-per-game at home, but just 13 in 23 on the road.

-          Ditto for Mason Raymond and Mikael Samuelsson.

-          So who does better on the road than at home on Vancouver? Nobody. Team scoring will go down over the next 13 contests.

 


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Kudelski's Krushers said:

Kudelskis Krushers
re: dubious I meant to say that I am doubtful. I assure you that I am not dubious! hahaha I guess there's no way to edit a comment?
February 01, 2010
Votes: +0

Kudelski's Krushers said:

Kudelskis Krushers
re: Legality of Age Caps While it is obviously possible that a Canadian court would reach a different conclusion than the American courts, it is highly unlikely.

First of all, the league is based out of the United States and that would weigh into the determination of which country's law to use (even if the suit were in a Canadian court, the court can be compelled to use American law).

Second, while not technically binding, American jurisprudence is persuasive. That is, our courts frequently consider American decisions and apply their legal reasoning to Canadian law. Seeing as the only real jurisprudence in this area of law comes from the United States, this would almost be a given.

Third, and the most important of all, a case grounded in Canadian law would in my view have lower odds of succeeding. The Americans, being the free-market economists that they are, have very robust anti-trust legislation (i.e. the Sherman Act). Conversely, our Competition Act is a less powerful regulatory tool. Notwithstanding the relative strengths of the legislation, the ENFORCEMENT of competition law in Canada is far weaker than in the US. We Canadians simply do not deem competitive markets to be a national priority (likely because the majority of our industries have historically been oligopolies). If our law won't even protect consumers from getting screwed by Bell and Rogers, I am dubious as to the likelihood of it protecting an NHL player from an agreement signed by the players' association.

All that said, I think it should. But that's another issue entirely!
February 01, 2010
Votes: +0

mick said:

hawkdog
king henrik Based on Saturday's game versus the leafs, I dont see Henrik dropping off any in production, the Sedin's are going to feast on Eastern teams.
February 01, 2010
Votes: +0

Dobber said:

Dobber
... Awakening - all we have to go on in any sport are small sample sizes. That's all we can base our conclusions on. But if I were to base it on the 50-game sample size that is this season, I would say that Henrik is producing far far over his head anyway and I'm just looking for an excuse to slow this transport truck down!

Kudelski - any lawsuit like this would be tried in Canadian Court. We're much bigger whiners up here, trust me.
January 31, 2010
Votes: -1

Kudelski's Krushers said:

Kudelskis Krushers
re: Legality of Age Caps I should add that Clarett just affirmed the current state of the law. The real precedent decision was rendered by the USSC in Brown v Pro Football Inc (1997).
January 31, 2010
Votes: +0

Kudelski's Krushers said:

Kudelskis Krushers
Legality of Age Caps Hey Dobber,

I just finished up the sports law component of my degree, where I chose to focus on the intersection between labour law and sports leagues.

First and foremost, such caps ARE perfectly legal. It seems unfair from a freedom of contract perspective but one has to understand that the legal tradition that underpins most of our social/economic contracts in society does NOT apply to sports leagues. The United States Court of Appeal has ruled very clearly on this issue of age caps. The most recent decision was rendered by now Supreme Court Justice Sotomayor in Clarett v NFL (2004). Leave to appeal to the USSC was denied. The Cole's notes version of the decisions: as long as any restriction/requirement is agreed to by both the league and the players' union, the courts are not going to interfere.

If you would like more information on the subject, I would be more than happy to discuss and/or share my paper with you.
January 31, 2010
Votes: +0

Awakening said:

Awakening
... Dobber--

Absolutely. I understand you don't think he's going to drop below 1 ppg. Who knows if it'll be 15, 17, 19 in this stretch. My point is simply that the analysis leading to you--and many others--to say that Henrik will be more in the 1-1.2 ppg vs. 1.5+ doesn't hold up for me. That's not to say that he won't be 1-1.2 ppg, but I can't see the reasoning when it essentially involves a very small sample size and a lot of games without Daniel. I respect the "my gut tells me" or "I would bet on" argument more than the stats argument in this case.
January 31, 2010
Votes: +0

InForAPenny said:

InForAPenny
... The only thing I don't like about saying that Vancouver and/or the Sedins productivity will decline on the road is that the average includes early in the year when the team was sucking it up.

CBC kept going on about the Nucks being horrible on the road which is true to date, but the team is better now than before so I don't think we can use their early season record as that much of a predictor. Henrik may see his scoring drop some but I would be more inclined to split the difference and say 17pts.
January 31, 2010
Votes: +0

Dobber said:

Dobber
... Awakening - I'm not saying Henrik will suck. I am saying that instead of getting 19 points in the next 13 games (current pace), he will only get 15 points in 13 games (road pace). That's not a slap in the face, and that's not insulting Henrik. Don't read too much into this. But I would bet 50 bucks that he is closer to 15 points than he is to 19 points.
January 31, 2010
Votes: +0

Awakening said:

Awakening
The Dreadest VAN Roadtrip I have seen this Sedin home/road argument all over the net. I don't see it. Henrik is 1.54 on the road with games that Daniel has played. They played 10 on the road without Daniel and Henrik scored 9.

Not to mention--this isn't a 14 game road trip. It's an 8 game trip, followed by two weeks at home in Vancouver during the Olympics, and then a 6 game trip. I was close to trading Henrik based on reports like this, but decided against it with this further reflection.
January 31, 2010
Votes: +2
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