Great quote today in the comments from DobberHockey member sanstanya, on the Garrison contract:
"In fact, the value of full-blown Edler vs tentative, confused, why-is-Bieksa-my partner-and-what-is-he-doing-way-over-there Edler might be the ultimate measure of the contract at the end of the day."
Scenario. You own Alex Ovechkin in your pool.
Your league counts the usual stuff, as well as hits. How do you value Ovechkin? Under Dale Hunter, he was neutered and put in a secondary role. Under Adam Oates, you can bet the Capitals are going to give him every opportunity to score 60+ again.
Some have speculated that he will pair with Mike Ribeiro on an offensive unit, and a two-way line featuring Laich and Backstrom will play behind them. The idea is just that, an idea, but it does make a lot of sense.
All that being said, let’s say you own Ovechkin and you are receiving offers for him. Assuming you don’t need any position in particular (I know, not incredibly realistic)… would you accept any of these trades?
4) Daniel Sedin
5) Taylor Hall and Justin Schultz
I am curious to see how Ovechkin is valued. Weigh in with your thoughts below.
My fantasy analysis on the Parise/Suter signings:
Congratulations to the Wild and their fans – yesterday was arguably the most exciting in club history. Isn’t every day you can add a franchise forward and elite defenseman without giving up anything in return.
Wanted to thank Michael Russo, the beat writer who covers the Wild. He’s one of the best in the biz and did a terrific job from start to finish with this one.
Minnesota made a crafty move the day before, signing two-way center Jake Dowell from Dallas. Dowell is a decent player, but he is also a former teammate of Ryan Suter at Wisconsin, and one of his best friends, too.
Even as a Canuck fan, I am a huge fan of these signings. More competition in the Northwest, and it shows that these guys aren’t all about money (I know, a weird thing to say after they will each make almost $100 million each, but both players took a lot of time to pick the right fit). Along with Justin Schultz, who chose the Oilers for hockey reasons, it is nice to see players pursuing other things in free agency beyond the dollar signs.
There are lots of line combination options, and here is my best guess as of now:
Powe/Dowell – Konopka – Mitchell
The Wild could use another defenseman, but that sure looks like a playoff club to me. And on the way in a few years – Johan Larsson, Charlie Coyle, Zach Phillips, Jason Zucker, and more.
What does this mean for Shea Weber? If he doesn’t want to sign a long-term deal with the Predators, I think the club has to entertain the idea of trading him this summer.
There would be no shortage of teams interested, and the cost would obviously be significant. Nashville went all in this year, and came up short. They have some great young defensemen, but Pekka Rinne and company will be in tough to repeat their successes next year.
If I am Edmonton, I call up David Poile and offer Jordan Eberle for Shea Weber ASAP. I love Eberle, but Weber would give the Oilers a franchise defenseman to go along with their potential three/four franchise forwards.
What does this mean for the teams in pursuit of the two players?
For Pittsburgh, who were really hot after Parise, I don’t think this forces them into anything. They have a lot of cap space and can sit back a bit and see where the cards fall. Or they could take a chance on Alex Semin on a one year deal and pair him with Crosby. Could score 50 there.
For Detroit, they need to add a defenseman. Does Jay Bouwmeester enter in to the equation? Right now the Wings have a top four of Kronwall, White, Ericsson, and Quincey. Smith and Kindl are nice young players, but I don’t think the Wings want to rely on either of them to play a lot of minutes just yet.
For New Jersey, this likely means that Ilya Kovalchuk is moving back to the left wing. I don’t see it affecting his fantasy value much, but this does hurt most of New Jersey’s other players.
For Nashville, this depends on what they do with Weber. Right now, there is no one to replace Suter, but that could change with a trade or signing (the team is reportedly interested in Matt Carle, who is a poor man’s Suter).
I am a huge Roman Josi fan, but he’s not ready for top pairing minutes. Mattias Ekholm is coming back over from Sweden. They probably won’t be able to replace Suter, but they are better off than most other teams would be given their depth on defense.
10. Roman Josi – Nashville Predators
Unlike Blum and Ellis, Josi has earned his reputation as a top offensive prospect the hard way. He isn’t Canadian (Swiss), and he wasn’t a high draft pick (38th overall in 2008). This season has been his first in North America, and the adjustment has been near-seamless. Through 54 games with the Admirals, Josi has six goals and 30 points. The first thing you notice about Josi when watching him play is his crisp accurate passes, and his heady decision-making.
Like Blum, I hesitated to put Josi on this list because of Nashville’s embarrassment of riches on defense. However, like Blum, I believe that skill and hockey sense prevail in the end (ether through finding ice time or the forcing of a trade). He plays with a ton of confidence and loves rushing the puck. He recently had a 13-game point streak in the AHL – an incredibly impressive feat for any defenseman, let alone a rookie.
Player Comparison: Kimmo Timonen
Some other thoughts from the past few days:
I could see Dallas splitting up their scoring into an offensive unit and more of a two-way unit, since they don’t really have a checking line right now.
Cody Eakin will likely center the third line, but he isn’t ready to be an NHL checker. Verne Fiddler is a solid depth forward, but he isn’t great defensively. More of a depth two-way option.
The Stars could also balance their two lines and put Jagr with Eriksson and Benn, freeing up Whitney to play with Roy and Ryder.
Roy hasn’t been the same player since tearing his quad in 2011. He has a lot to play for now – he has contended with trade rumors for the past few years, and is now playing for a new contract in a brand new environment. Skill has never been the question with him, but effort and consistency both have.
The Coyotes have replaced Ray Whitney with Steve Sullivan. Sullivan grew tired of waiting for the Penguins and decided to join the Desert Dogs. I’ll likely slot in to the top six/nine somewhere (Phoenix has so many similar players it is hard to see who is line one, two, or three at the moment).
There are a ton of teams after Shane Doan, and for good reason. He’s a strong two-way player and a terrific leader, and he is heavily motivated to win after getting so close this past postseason in Phoenix. The Rangers, Flyers, and Canucks would all love to add Doan. Doan’s heart and family is on Phoenix, but his future there depends on their murky ownership issues.
Where does Rick Nash go? I think Carolina would be a great fit for him, not only because he would get to play with Jordan and Eric Staal on a potentially dominant top unit. The ‘Canes would also have the assets to give Columbus what they want in return. I’d imagine a package featuring Ryan Murphy, Zac Dalpe, and another forward would get Columbus on the phone.
Florida prospect Nick Bjugstad is going to decide soon whether he turns pro or spends one more year in the NCAA. I think another year would serve him well – he went from a ‘very good’ prospect to a ‘stud’ prospect in 2011-12 at Minnesota, and one more year of development couldn’t hurt him. The Panthers don’t really need to rush him, either.
Started work on the DobberHockey 2012-13 Fantasy Guide – this year I am going to implement a brand new section that will incorporate advanced statistics to fantasy analysis. I have had a ton of fun brainstorming ideas and I know you guys are going to eat this stuff up. Really useful, relevant, and not being done anywhere else.
The Canucks apparently offered Olli Jokinen a one-year contract. I wonder what that says about Ryan Kesler’s injury recovery? As it stands right now, Kesler will be out until November. Potential lines:
Lots can change (and lots will), but Vancouver would love to add a center. I’m surprised by the Jokinen offer, though. When Kesler comes back, where does Jokinen slot in? L3, I guess, and then Lapierre would slide to wing. Lapierre has been very good with the Canucks and I think he deserves a shot to center L3 – he did a great job of it during their Cup run, going up against the likes of Joe Pavelski and coming out ahead.
Illegal Curve takes a look at some potential line combos in Winnipeg. Points for thinking outside-the-box:
Machacek was a guy I saw a lot of in the WHL. Solid two-way player with no stand out qualities. Great complimentary winger to better linemates. I like the look of that third line, as well. A lot of size on the wing for the talented Burmistrov to play with.
How much does shot quality matter? Not a whole lot. If you read one thing today (after the ramblings, that is), read this link.
“I don't think anyone believes that there is no such thing as shot quality, that all shots are equal. The argument is actually that most shot quality effects are smaller than people think, and that over the sample sizes we normally work with, differences in shot quality tend to be dominated more by noise than talent. In this article, I'll walk through some examples and try to emphasize the subtle difference between saying shot quality is meaningless and saying it is often negligible.”
Ryan Johansen has put on 15 pounds this summer – great news as he was pushed around a bit as a rookie. He’s just under 220 pounds. Johansen is one of the top prospects in hockey and will be a guy the Jackets build around once Rick Nash is traded.
Jason Garrison wasn’t signed for his 16 goals, a point I have tried to get across to a few people (cough, Dobber) on here. Advanced stats paint a picture of one of the best defensive defensemen in the game.
‘Offensively, Garrison should be expected to score upwards of five goals. I doubt that the Canucks front office or coaching staff expects him to repeat the 16 he scored last season, but that wasn’t the reason he was signed. His big shot from the point does help to alleviate the team’s loss of Sami Salo, but there was more that went into this signing than offence.
For the two full seasons that Garrison has been in the NHL, he’s been quietly one of its best defensive defencemen. The Canucks are hoping this trend continues.’
Scary moment a few days ago, as Phoenix player Brett MacLean suffered a cardiac emergency while playing hockey in Owen Sound. MacLean was once a highly touted prospect, but has struggled a bit at the NHL level. Sending my best wishes to him and hoping for a speedy recovery. Very scary to see this stuff happen to anyone, especially a healthy athlete in his 20s.
The Jets have signed Al Montoya to back up Ondrej Pavelec. Montoya struggled after returning from a concussion last season. He didn’t receive much support on Long Island, though.
Some quotes from Parise and Suter to wrap the ramblings up.
“Ryan and I had talked throughout the year, at the time you always say to each other, ‘Wouldn’t it be great to have a chance play with each other on the same team?’ Was it realistic at the time? I don’t know. Different teams have to have the availability. I know how great Ryan is ... to have an opportunity to play with a guy of that caliber is a great opportunity. We kept in touch throughout the whole process. You have to decide what is best for you.
How to say his last name: “I pronounce it “Par-e-zee.”
“When the season ends and you start thinking what’s next, big thing is my family, obviously. They were an option right away, Minnesota, and I always thought about Minnesota, it just never seemed realistic, but for me, right after the season, you think about places you could potentially go to, and the situation that is best for you and your family."
Suter showing off his shot:
Don't forget - this guy is still available: