Adam Oates has been hired as Washington's new head coach. I'm looking into tendencies and coaching style - it's hard to tell, when his last gig was an assistant with the Devils.

 

Live chat right here on Sunday. When should I start it? Noon? Call it noonish. But let’s chat. I’ll invite all the writers on, and I’m sure some or most will be up for it – chat it up, get your voice heard and your questions answered!

 

If the Penguins get Zach Parise, I’ll eat my hat. They freed up cap space to keep Crosby and add a complementary winger – and still have a bit leftover for a deadline deal. So enough of the stupid talk.

 

In unrelated news, I have this awesome new hat made of nachos.

 

So who do the Penguins target? A second-tier winger, which means PA Parenteau, Jiri Hudler, Kristian Huselius, Brad Boyes, Shane Doan or Ray Whitney. My money would be on Parenteau or Doan.

 

Florida would have to be crazy to go after Roberto Luongo. Not with Jacob Markstrom as close as half a season away from becoming an NHL starter. And when Markstrom is a starter, he won’t be 25th in the league… or 18th in the league. He’ll be top 10. Luongo is dreaming.

 

Mike Gillis is dreaming too. Another GM I respect (I think he, Burke, Lombardi, Tallon, Shero, Holmgren, Holland and Chiarelli are my favorites – off the top of my head, hope I didn’t leave any out). But he’s going to play the waiting game with the Luongo situation. The problem is - he only has one opponent. I don’t think he will admit that to himself yet, but Brian Burke is his only potential deal. Sure, there are rumblings about Chicago, but payroll-wise the Leafs have better flexibility and desperation-wise the Leafs need goaltending more. There were only three teams in absolutely desperate need of a goaltender – Toronto, Tampa Bay and Columbus. Two of those teams have apparently addressed the need. Gillis lost the waiting game with those guys. Gillis has made some smart moves, but in this I don’t believe he has a lot room to maneuver. I think it’s Toronto, and I think if he waits until the season starts and something happens like a James Reimer of old re-emergence, or a Ben Scrivens show, then the potential return will only get worse. When you have such a big contract, you almost have to give it away.

 

My prediction on Parise:
New Jersey – 40%

Minnesota – 30%

Toronto – 10%

Other – 20%

 

The Lightning did not qualify Benoit Pouliot. That seems weird, considering what they gave up for him, and he will apparently get a shot in the top six. But the team and Pouliot both believe that they will come to an agreement of some sort.

 

Apparently the Islanders offered Columbus all of their draft picks just for Ryan Murray. Snow was turned down. Uh…interesting. I guess, credit goes for originality? But is Murray so good that he’s worth Reinhart and six draft picks? So instead, the Isles drafted seven defensemen with their picks and thus increased the odds that one of them will turn out to be as good as Murray. Yes. Yes, that would be smarter.

 

If you missed it yesterday, my Puck Daddy column on draft weekend trade impact – here. And my THN column on the impact of some of the key draft picks – here.

 

Calgary did not give qualifying offers to Blake Comeau or Logan MacMillan. So they will be UFA’s.

 

The Rangers qualified Mats Zuccarello, which is interesting since he agreed to a KHL contract. So they have hope of a return next year? They also qualified Anton Stralman, who will return to Sweden according to several sources.

 

Nashville did not qualify Jack Hillen or Zach Stortini. They did qualify Alexander Radulov (of course), among the others.

 

This one slipped by me – Isles Trevor Gillies signed to play in the KHL. Just an FYI.

 

The Stars took their time with this decision, but they did indeed qualify Tom Wandell. They qualified the rest of the RFA’s (who they wanted) last week.

 

Hall of Fame announcement later today – Sakic and Sundin are the locks, with Shanahan close behind. Although most experts will say Sakic and Shanahan are the locks and it is Sundin who is close behind. But I always go back to the best player in the world in their position for a give season. I think there were two or three seasons where Sundin was second or third best on the planet. I don’t know if Shanahan was ever the second or third best winger on the planet. Anyway, whatever – my criteria is different from the HoF’s and I don’t get a vote.

 

The Oilers qualified, among others, Linus Omark. Cam Barker was not qualified.

 

The Habs did not qualify Petteri Nokelainen, nor Michael Blunden.

 

The Wild did not qualify Nick Johnson or Guillaume Latendresse, but they plan to sign the latter to a contract soon.

 

Here is the most interesting one – Peter Mueller. The Avs did not qualify him AND they do not plan to pursue him, per Adrian Dater. Now watch him sign and flourish elsewhere, injuries behind him. Or maybe he just Pascal Leclaires his way out of hockey.

 

Kevin Porter also not qualified.

 

Florida did not qualify Wojtek Wolski, and Vancouver did not qualify MA Gragnani.

 

This Fabian Brunnstrom Damien Brunner guy is starting to sound pretty promising. Mike Babcock, via mLive: “I know a lot about him because I went to the World Championships (in May) and watched him play,'' Babcock said Saturday at the NHL entry draft. “The thing for us is he’s high, high paced, he scored, looks like he has tons of skill. Can he adjust and play the North American game? We’re going to give him every opportunity. He’ll be a top-six forward to start with us and see where he goes with us.''

 

Wow – you just don’t hear that kind of stuff about an unproven player. I don’t think Roman Cervenka even got those kinds of words from Calgary brass. So he’ll be Gustav Nyquist’s competition to take the Jiri Hudler job. I’m pretty high on Nyquist so I don’t see Brunner topping him. But maybe he finds a niche as a third-liner to start. He’s 26, and 5-11, 180 pounds. So why wasn’t he making headlines when he was 25? Had to ask. There’s late bloomers, but this is crazy.

 


Brendan Ross here from Dobber Prospects. Please feel free to head on over to the DP site to view our latest featured story, "2012 NHL Draft Report Cards" Part One and Part Two, grading how each team did (initially) at the draft.


While you are over there, you might as well take the poll asking which Canadian team had the strongest draft and view the latest Ramblings (Stats from the 2012 NHL Draft).  Browse back a bit in the Ramblings if you missed my own and Rich Dillon's lastest rambles using the "Next" link at the bottom of the Ramblings.


Enjoy!




Here’s some Damien Brunner highlights:

 

 

Cody Eakin’s first pro multi-goal game:

 



Write comment
Comments (15)add comment

phaneuf_fan_3 said:

phaneuf_fan_3
... Penguins have 15 mil cap room right now, 20 mil if they move Martin. Very few rfa/ufa to re sign from last year. Trading Staal opened up room for 1 more big contract. I think the Pens will very much be in on either Parise or Suter. Suter would be the better short term option as the defensive prospects are probably 1-2 yrs from seriously helping out. But Parise would be the much better option for now + future.
June 26, 2012
Votes: +0

fzusher said:

fzusher
#Bender Because a variety of teams drafted at 155 in the sample period, you have an element of randomization that means drafting/developing ability is not a strong factor - you have both good and bad drafting/developing teams who have picked at 155.

Besides, don't overestimate what it means to be a good drafting-developing team. 2000-2007, picks 100 and lower. Wings scored 5 decent or potentially decent NHLers: Ericsson, Meech, Quincey, Helm, Mursak. Out of some 48 picks, that's around 1 in 10. Much better than, sAy, CBJ, but still only 1 in 10. That's what we're talking about in terms of team that drafts well and finds late round gems: 1 in 10.
June 26, 2012
Votes: +0

itzjules said:

itzjules
... Brunner was making headlines, he just didn't want to come to NHL until now....
June 26, 2012
Votes: +0

repenttokyo said:

repenttokyo
If you don't qualify someone They can't invoke their arbitration rights. That's why teams do it in cases where they actually do want to keep the player.
June 26, 2012
Votes: +0

Isle B. said:

Isle B.
... Here's to hoping that Adam Oates brings back the freewheeling style we all knew and loved; the one that made the Caps President's Trophy Winners as well as the most entertaining team in the league and which was NOT actually responsible for their lack of playoff success during those seasons (running into a great Penguins team two years in a row followed by Halak on the role of his life in 2010 were the real culprits).
June 26, 2012
Votes: +0

Bender said:

baconnol
Draft Picks Fzusher, thanks for the breakdown on draft picks, great post. If you take Dobber's offer and elaborate on an article, I would be curious to see the results of the draft picks in more general terms, such as NHL players found after a certain number. Your analysis looks at individual picks such as the #155, but depending on the teams scouting department maybe they missed at #155, but another team with a better scouting department got a great player at #156. So really, shouldn't it be evaluated based on number of NHL players found after pick #150 and up.... #160 and up, etc? Again these posts by fzusher are why this site rules.
June 26, 2012
Votes: +0

Isle B. said:

Isle B.
... @fzusher

It is about time I see someone inject some historical research and statistical reality into what has otherwise been a mirthful chucklefest of both bashing the Islanders for making such an offer and Columbus for rejecting it. The #2 overall pick almost always ends up developing into an impact player, whereas #4s have dramatically lower success rate. Throw in the all of the great #3 picks that were also available at 2nd overall, and you start to see that it really IS worth trading your entire draft to move up those two critical spots most of the time.

@Dobber

There is definitely a lot of hidden value to those depth picks but the Isles already have a ton of 2nd-tier prospects but seriously lack a another potential world-class player to go along with Tavares, and of all their prospects, only Strome looks like he could even come close to filling that bill.
June 26, 2012
Votes: +0

Dobber said:

Dobber
fzusher Love it!
So 33% odds that 4 will be as good as 2. That leaves 18% odds of the other six needed in order to make the deal work. You rough it at about 9%. So 42% historically, that those picks will benefit CBJ in the future vs. 58% keeping the pick. On the surface.

Now delve into how they would do if they trade 125 and 103 and move up to draft 85th. You have to assume that they would do that at least once, since they have all those picks.

Now delve into how they would do if they moved 155 in '12 for what would/may end up being 148 in '13. That is another move that would probably happen, with their excess picks.

And thirdly - evaluate the benefit of trading a prospect one to three years down the road, as part of a package. Granted, he never plays in the NHL, but as a 20-year-old, the other team didn't know for sure and insisted he be part of the package. So now you have an intangible value.


What I see here is 42% straight up on the surface, but an intangible number - to me worth at least the other 9% needed - to make the deal worth doing. It really is a no-brainer if you have a good scouting staff. Columbus does (did - since they were fired) NOT have a good scouting staff. That could be why the offer was turned down.


Fzusher - any way you could take your thoughts, and my added points, and make a guest article out of it? This is research that the hockey community would covet. Email me
June 26, 2012
Votes: +0

Dean Youngblood said:

Dean Youngblood
Damien Brunner Those are some saucy highlights. It appears that he's perfected the toe-drag as good as that one guy in my mens' league that continues to dangle the same guy week after week.
June 26, 2012
Votes: +0

Dean Youngblood said:

Dean Youngblood
Live Chat on Canada Day? So...you plan on holding a live chat on Canada Day? I can tell you right now, I will be submersed in a few bevys on July 1st at noon so you might not want to hear what I have to say smilies/wink.gif
June 26, 2012
Votes: +0

4horsemen said:

4horsemen
Comment on the Comments fzusher - I love the way you have dissected the value of draft picks......VERY informative stuff!!

I'm a huge believer in playing the odds (which seems quite easy since most people subscribe to the notion that they can beat the house) and it's breakdown's like yours that help solidify my resolve to let logic dictate my fantasy hockey decisions.

Long live stats and logic smilies/grin.gif
June 26, 2012
Votes: +1

nofear94 said:

nofear94
Yellow or gold helmet The one who where the yellow or gold helmet in different europeen league, means that there are the scoring leader of their team.
June 26, 2012
Votes: +0

Kudelskis Krushers said:

Kudelskis Krushers
Brunner Highlights Thanks for these. Does anyone know why, in many of the clips, there is a player from each team that wears a yellow helmet and has yellow markings on their jersey? Very weird to see one player look so different from the rest of the team...
June 26, 2012
Votes: +0

angus said:

angus
... Dobber - I'll send over some hot sauce for you to enjoy with your nacho hat.

I'd say Pittsburgh will be in the mix.
June 26, 2012 | url
Votes: +0

fzusher said:

fzusher
bunch o' stuff 1) GMs - gotta give props to Poile for the job he does in Nashville making them a perennial playoff threat on a shoestring.

2) Teams desperate for goalies - If Brodeur does not resign, they become desperate for a goalie all of a sudden, especially if they lose Parise

3) NYI's 7 picks - Elliot Freedman made a good case for CBJ's rejection of the Snow offer today on Prime Time Sports. He looked at what the players who were drafted at the same positions as the NYI picks 1990-2008 had done. His finding: very little. For example, at 34th, all players selected after 1990 (Doug Weight) had combined for less than 600 NHL games. That's 18 players combined. At 2nd you are still pretty sure to get a very good player. but there's a big drop off in success rates between 3 and 4. The point: CBJ played the odds/numbers, which pretty much suggest moving from 2 to 4 would have been a downgrade and that they were not very likely to get a second player out of those picks to justify the drop.

I checked Freedman argument. First, the drop from 2nd to 4th. Here's the pairs 1990-2008: Petr Nedved => Mike Ricci; Pat Falloon => Scott Lachance; Alexei Yashin => Todd Warriner; Chris Pronger => Paul Kariya; Oleg Tverdovsky => Jason Bonsignore; Wade Redden => Chad Kilger; Andrei Zyuzin => Alexandre Volchkov; Patrick Marleau => Roberto Luongo; David Legwand => Bryan Allen; Daniel Sedin => Pavel Brendl; Danny Heatley => Rusty Klesla; Jason Spezza => Stephen Weiss; Kari Lehtonen => Joni Pitkanen; Erik Staal => Nik Zherdev; Evgeny Malkin => Andrew Ladd; Bobby Ryan => Benoit Pouliot; Jordan Staal => Nik Backstrom; JVR => Thomas Hickey; Drew Doughty => Alex Pietrangelo. I'd say that there are at most 6 pairs in which there is an argument to be made that the #4 was as good as the #2 (Ricci, Kariya, Luongo, Pitkanen, Backstrom, Pietrangelo), and none that the #4 was a better player (maybe Ricci vs. Nedved. Maybe). In other words, you have 1 in 3 odds of merely coming out even when dropping from #2 to #4. 2 times out of 3 you'll suffer a drop, usually quite a significant one.

What are your chances of getting a solid NHL player out of the additional picks (34, 65, 103, 125, 155, 185)? Between 1990 and 2008 114 players were picked in these positions. The only guys to have become at least decent NHLers were Doug Weight (34, 1990), Bill Lindsey (103, 1991), Kirk Maltby (65, 1992) and Travis Moen (155, 2000), with 3 more (Oliwa, Shawn Bates, Oleg Kvasha) becoming serviceable short term NHLers, and 4 recent ones (Neuvirth, Mark Fayne, Brian Strait, Ryan Stoa) who still may have hope. That translates into about a 1 in 11 chance. By contrast, of these 114 players, 80 have not played a single NHL game, though there is still hope for Jake Allen, Paul Karpowich, Jori Lehtera, or Nick Larson (WSH). That's about 2 in 3 chance of seeing not a single NHL game from all 6 picks combined.

So yeah, the odds don't lie. Smart decision from CBJ.
June 26, 2012
Votes: +3
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