sedins

 

Continuing along with the third part of the series, this week we’ll take a closer look at the Western Conference wingers. The fantasy value of a winger can easily be identified by interpreting the same two stats used to identify the value of blue-liners, which is PP ice-time and SOG. The reasoning behind it is very simple. PP ice-time usually separates players who are offensive-minded from those that are defensive-oriented. The more PP time they receive usually equates to more offensive opportunities they’ll have to score with the advantage. On a similar note, SOG usually maintains a similar line of thought. The more a winger shoots, the higher the chance it goes into the net or creating offensive chances. The opposite also holds true, the less a winger shoots, the lower the chance that the puck goes into the net and the lower the offensive opportunities. Now that we’ve established clear indicators on determining the fantasy value of wingers, let’s take a closer look at most of the wingers from the Western Conference.

 

NOTE: These ramblings are based on one-year leagues, and not meant for keeper/dynasty leagues.

 

Also I looked used the positions as listed on www.nhl.com, so there might be some discrepancies in position compared to your league settings. Don’t worry too much if a clear cut winger isn’t listed. If I didn’t cover the player this week, it’ll be covered next week in the centers column.

 

Anaheim

 

Name

Points

SOG

Overall Ice-Time

PP Ice-Time

Status

Jason Blake

7

33

14:15

1:24

WW

Matt Beleskey

2

17

14:19

0:54

WW

Aaron Voros

0

3

6:18

0:00

WW

Teemu Selanne

19

53

17:21

3:47

Stand Pat

Corey Perry

20

62

21:38

3:41

Stand Pat

Bobby Ryan

17

69

20:41

2:42

Stand Pat

George Parros

2

14

6:48

0:00

WW

 

Most of the value in Anaheim lies with the trio of Selanne, Ryan and Perry. All three are on pretty excellent point paces. Selanne is averaging the least overall ice-time, but also the most PP time. Ryan has the lowest PP ice-time, but a fairly reasonable 20+ mins overall, while Perry has the best of both worlds. All three should be solid owns the rest of the way. Blake and Beleskey could see their value increase if an injury were to happen, but if things stay status quo, their values won’t be enough to contribute anything. Voros and Parros are more for the PIMs than anything else, so not much to be excited about with those two. Insider tip: Lupul participated in his first full practice last week. The latest news has him returning back to the Anaheim line up full-time by the end of the month. With his current IR status, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to stash him away for the next few weeks and be rewarded for the long term.

 

 

Calgary

 

Name

Points

SOG

Overall Ice-Time

PP Ice-Time

Status

Rene Bourque

14

38

16:51

3:44

Buy

Alex Tanguay

12

21

18:51

3:49

Stand Pat

Niklas Hagman

8

35

16:09

3:18

Watch

Curtis Glencross

7

32

15:07

0:50

Watch

Stefan Meyer

2

11

8:11

0:02

WW

Jarome Iginla

10

49

19:04

4:13

Buy-Low

Tim Jackman

3

20

9:19

1:25

WW

David Moss

2

17

14:08

0:10

WW

 

Iginla is only on pace to finish with 51 points. We all know that he’s a much better player than that, so see if you can buy-low on the seasoned veteran. With 14 points in 14 contests, Bourque is ready to take the next step in his career. The thing that you need to be wary of is that he started with 34 points in 34 games last season, but then fell into a mid-season slump in January and February with only seven points in the next 19. If he can avoid that slump I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up with a 70-75 point campaign. If you’ve been following the Flames’ boards, Sutter’s mutterings or the Calgary newspapers, you would think that Tanguay has committed a murder or something. Despite all the negative press, he still has 12 points in 15 games, which is pretty good compared to the back-to-back dismal 37 and 41 point seasons that he’s had away from Calgary. The 21 SOG is a bit worrying, but he’s never been a big SOG taker in the first place. If you’re after just points, Tanguay is a solid pickup, but if you’re after the peripheral stuff, consider other options. I stuck two watch signs on Hagman and Glencross as both have their upsides and their downsides. Hagman gets the PP time, but not a lot enough of overall ice-time to contribute. I really like the chemistry that Glencross is developing with Olli Jokinen and Bourque. He won’t be a 60+ point threat, but 40-50 could certainly be attainable.

 

 

Chicago

 

Name

Points

SOG

Overall Ice-Time

PP Ice-Time

Status

Patrick Sharp

19

81

19:57

3:37

Buy

Troy Brouwer

9

30

14:30

1:56

WW

Viktor Stalberg

10

36

12:14

0:16

WW

Bryan Bickell

7

23

12:30

1:22

WW

John Scott

0

6

7:04

0:00

WW

Patrick Kane

17

59

19:55

3:36

Sell

Marian Hossa

13

43

20:00

2:25

Stand Pat

Tomas Kopecky

9

38

17:38

3:04

Sell

Jack Skille

6

46

10:34

0:10

WW

Fernado Pisani

4

20

12:41

0:19

WW

 

Earlier in the year, I attached Kane’s name in a list regarding players that could make or break your season. I know it’s only 20 contests in, but I think I’m on the ball with that one. A lot of poolies expected him to improve upon the 88 points that he tallied last season, while selecting him very high during their drafts. But with Hossa, Sharp and Toews in the mix, he’ll be hard pressed to match that output for 2010-11. I still think he’ll finish around the 80 point mark, so there’s still plenty of value there. But if I were a Kane-owner, I wouldn’t mind going headhunting to see if I could land a bigger fish like Perry, Heatley, or St. Louis in return. After starting the season with 11 points in the first seven contests, Hossa followed that up with seven consecutive goose eggs. He snapped that streak with a two point effort on Sunday night, so it appears that things are looking peachy once again. He’s essentially a point-per-game player, so expect him to finish right around that mark by the end of the season. Sharp’s been a monster this season, and he’s ready to take the next step. It appears that Kopecky is returning back to Earth. With just one point in the last 12 contests, his value has quickly become zilch.

 

 

Colorado

 

Name

Points

SOG

Overall Ice-Time

PP Ice-Time

Status

Daniel Winnik

7

39

17:05

0:16

WW

TJ Galiardi

6

23

17:12

1:08

Stand Pat

Cody McLeod

3

21

8:46

0:08

WW

Greg Mauldin

2

5

8:49

0:00

Watch*

Chris Stewart

20

50

17:22

3:13

Buy

Milan Hejduk

19

51

17:24

3:33

Buy

David Jones

10

28

17:10

2:42

Watch*

Brandon Yip

8

30

15:12

2:36

Stand Pat

 

Most of the fantasy value pretty much lies within the duo of Stewart and Hejduk. Both are garnering plenty of points and ice-time with the third highest ranked offense in the league. During the off-season, I floated the idea of Paul Stastny possibly winning the Art Ross trophy in 2010-11 and how the Avs could offensively resemble the Canucks from last season. Well 17 games in, and I’m not too far off on at least one of my predictions. Yip is an energy player, but averaging just 15 minutes of ice-time per game won’t be enough to make a big dent on the scoresheet. With Galiardi’s injury (broken wrist), it really opened up a big hole in the Avs’ top-six. Jones got the call last night, but Mauldin could see some time alongside Stastny and Stewart. He had 12 points in 14 games with Lake Erie before being recalled from the AHL to fill in for Galiardi.

 

 

Columbus

 

Name

Points

SOG

Overall Ice-Time

PP Ice-Time

Status

RJ Umberger

9

41

17:48

2:48

Buy

Kristian Huselius

5

14

16:26

3:50

Sell

Nikita Filatov

5

19

11:56

2:08

Watch

Ethan Moreau

2

12

13:53

0:02

WW

Rick Nash

10

57

17:55

3:49

Buy-Low

Jakub Voracek

9

37

16:01

3:20

Buy-Stash

Chris Clark

8

26

14:35

0:09

WW

Derek Dorsett

4

17

13:20

0:11

WW

 

Much like the situation with Iggy, Nash is only on pace to finish the season with 54 points. He’s too good of a talent to put up that low of a total, so consider him a serious buy-low candidate. Voracek started the season very slowly with three points in October, but has flipped the switch with six points in November. If you break down the NHL season into thirds, he has career averages of 0.58 (September/October), 0.43 (November/December) and 0.64 (January/February/March). Try to see if you can pick him up on the cheap to stash away for a New Year run. A lot of people doubted Umberger at the beginning of the season and he’s starting to make people pay. He’s on pace to finish the season with 49 points, a plus 32 rating along with 224 SOG. If you tack on the peripherals of 82 Hits and 120 BS, he’s a great across-the-board contributor. Huselius is dealing with a high ankle sprain, and generally speaking that injury is fatal to the value of a player for the season. Get whatever you possibly can for him. Huse’s injury gave new life to Filatov by handing him a top-six spot on a silver platter. He’s seen his ice-time climb up to 14:06 for the last five contests, but it won’t be enough to really make him a must own. I generously stuck a watch sign on him in case he does see his ice-time climb, but I’d be more tempted to stay away than to actively seek him.

 

 

Dallas

 

Name

Points

SOG

Overall Ice-Time

PP Ice-Time

Status

Loui Eriksson

17

36

20:25

3:39

Buy

James Neal

13

44

18:09

2:51

Stand Pat

Brendan Morrow

9

36

17:59

3:56

Stand Pat

Jamie Benn

9

29

15:03

2:23

Sell

Steve Ott

5

21

15:43

2:42

Sell

Brandon Segal

3

12

8:56

0:27

WW

Adam Burish

1

29

15:08

0:19

WW

 

Eriksson continues to impress, as he leads the wingers in point production and overall ice-time. When you average that much per contest, it usually guarantees production. It’s probably going to be difficult to acquire him, but if you can, certainly make a pitch. Neal and Morrow are producing at a good pace, so stand pat. Benn and Ott aren’t receiving enough ice-time to be able to produce optimally, so I’d be tempted to sell them. But then again, you probably won’t be able to get much value in return, so your best option is to probably keep them until a better alternative rolls around.

 

 

Detroit

 

Name

Points

SOG

Overall Ice-Time

PP Ice-Time

Status

Henrik Zetterberg

17

60

19:36

3:52

Stand Pat

Tomas Holmstrom

8

28

14:48

3:26

Stand Pat

Justin Abdelkader

3

16

11:33

0:08

WW

Drew Miller

1

11

11:26

0:07

WW

Todd Bertuzzi

14

28

15:42

2:05

Buy

Danny Cleary

12

38

15:24

0:56

Watch

Johan Franzen

11

40

15:45

2:32

Sell

Patrick Eaves

3

16

10:58

0:06

WW

 

Zetterberg, as usual, leads the wingers in HockeyTown. He’s currently on a greater than point-per-game pace, but he traditionally gets nicked up for a few games throughout the season. He’s never played in a full 82-game season in his career, so if you are an owner, don’t expect an injury-free season but a few missed contests here or there. Homstrom is turning 38 very soon, and well into the downside of his career. His current 43-point pace is pretty much where I’d peg him to be at the end of the season. Bertuzzi looks rejuvenated, but then again spending close to 53 percent of your overall ice-time alongside Valtteri Filppula and Johan Franzen will probably do that to an NHLer. The overall ice-time is a bit low, but he’s not a bad candidate as a third/fourth winger. I sound like a broken record, but Cleary never ceases to amaze me. Year after year he always just goes out and churns out consistent numbers. His current 65-point pace, is a bit high, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see another 40-point 150 SOG season from him. I’m going to stick a sell sign on Franzen. His 11 points isn’t too bad, but the three PPP is a major worry. He’s being shafted for Mike Modano on the top PP unit, and relegated to the second PP unit. Franzen still holds a pretty “big name”, so I’d use his status to see if you can pawn him off for someone a little more productive. I’m just speculating, but a Frazen straight up for Pavelski might get a few owners to bite.

 

 

Edmonton

 

Name

Points

SOG

Overall Ice-Time

PP Ice-Time

Status

Taylor Hall

7

35

16:48

2:11

Watch

Magnus Paajarvi

6

22

15:04

1:05

Watch

Ryan Jones

6

34

9:25

0:25

WW

Ales Hemsky

11

33

18:08

3:26

Stand Pat

Jordan Eberle

11

28

19:12

2:30

Buy

Dustin Penner

8

32

16:59

3:14

Sell

Zack Stortini

2

6

7:07

0:07

WW

 

It’s going to be a steep learning curve for the young Oilers as they’ve been outscored 25-8 in the last four contests. The thing about owning rookies is that it’s going to be a rollercoaster ride. You’ll have hot streaks, then plenty of cold streaks. You’ll have multi-point games, then plenty of goose eggs. Consistency is the main issue, which is why I’m not a big fan of owning rookies. Hall and Paajarvi have done okay, but aren’t seeing enough ice-time to really put up big numbers. It wasn’t until Steven Stamkos was averaging 18:56 in mid-February in 2008 that his production started to take off. Until Hall or Paajarvi garners that much ice-time, it’ll be hard to see any type of major fantasy contribution from the duo. Hemsky’s fantasy value is pretty much linked to his health. He’s pretty much a 0.90 point-per-game player. The question remains whether he’ll play 80+ games for 72+ points or 30 contests for 24 points. Eberle is producing the best out of the trio of Oiler rookies as he’s tied with Hemmer for the scoring amongst all of the Oiler forwards. It appears that Dobber’s bold initial projection of 75 points isn’t that far off after all... This time last year, Penner was averaging 19:54 and 3:38, 12 months later and the numbers definitely aren’t the same. At less than 17 minutes of overall ice-time along with an average of just two SOG per game, he’s nothing more than a 50-point LW. Move on to greener pastures.

 

 

Los Angeles Kings

 

Name

Points

SOG

Overall Ice-Time

PP Ice-Time

Status

Ryan Smyth

10

49

19:07

3:21

Stand Pat

Alex Ponikarovsky

4

18

13:46

0:44

Sell

Kyle Clifford

0

5

7:23

0:01

WW

Justin Williams

17

47

16:49

2:51

Buy

Dustin Brown

13

50

18:43

2:37

Buy

Wayne Simmonds

6

22

12:08

0:11

WW

Scott Parse

4

6

13:47

1:48

Watch*

 

It appears that the Brown plus Anze Kopitar experiment is continuing to last, as Brown has spent 77.7 percent of his overall ice-time alongside the talented Slovenian. The 12 points, plus seven rating, 27 PIMs, 63 HITs and 48 SOG is fantasy gold for roto leagues. Williams is also on a tear. The talent is certainly there, but it’s the injury cloud that always looms above his head. If he can manage to stay relatively healthy, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 75-80 point season from him. At just 64 percent Yahoo! owned, he’s a bargain bin pickup. Smyth is a great complement to the Williams and Jarret Stoll duo. Look for him to maintain a steady scoring pace. Poni is out for the next three-four weeks with a broken finger. Prior to the injury he wasn’t doing much toiling on the third line anyways, so sell him immediately. Dobber is a big fan of Simmonds, but he’s not going to get enough ice-time to be of value to fantasy pools. Parse is the latest experiment to be tried with the Kopitar/Brown duo. He did tally 197 points in 159 career contests with the University of Nebraska, as well as 24 points in 59 contests last season with the Kings, which shows some offensive upside. If he can find a permanent fixture alongside the two stars, he could be in for a very productive season riding coat-tails. Definitely keep a close eye on him in the next two-three weeks.

 

 

Minnesota

 

Name

Points

SOG

Overall Ice-Time

PP Ice-Time

Status

Andrew Brunette

9

22

16:27

3:18

Stand Pat

Guillaume Latendresse

6

13

13:57

2:12

Stand Pat

Eric Nystrom

2

22

13:52

0:47

WW

Martin Havlat

13

31

18:10

3:08

Buy

Antti Miettinen

8

37

17:17

2:44

Stand Pat

Cal Clutterbuck

6

36

16:00

2:10

WW

Chuck Kobasew

1

14

11:55

1:07

WW

Brad Staubitz

1

4

6:28

0:00

WW

 

It appears that the Havlat of old is back. He’s on pace to finish the season with 66 points, which is much better than the 54 points that he tallied last season. This season he has more help in the forms of Matt Cullen, John Madden and Latendresse, where as last year he really was hung out to dry on the second line with no help. If you aren’t in need of the peripheral stuff, take a swing at acquiring Havlat. Both Miettinen and Latendresse have been bothered by injuries to start the season, so their totals have been a bit skewed. Both are borderline owns/WW material, depending on league size. Brunette is as consistent as they come, the question is will consistency win you a championship? Clutterbuck is a monster in leagues that tally HITs. A line of 30 points, 363 HITs along with 184 SOG would be fantasy gold at the end of the season.

 

 

Nashville

 

Name

Points

SOG

Overall Ice-Time

PP Ice-Time

Status

Steve Sullivan

9

38

18:18

3:21

Stand Pat

Sergei Kostitsyn

3

6

11:02

0:09

WW

Nick Spaling

1

6

11:52

0:04

WW

Patric Hornqvist

8

49

16:48

3:30

Stand Pat

JP Dumont

7

28

13:01

2:18

Sell

Jordin Tootoo

6

20

12:01

0:14

WW

Joel Ward

4

24

17:50

2:06

Stand Pat

Martin Erat

4

14

15:33

2:38

Buy

 

The more I look at the Preds line up, the more it makes me think how underrated they really are. Not a lot of superstar influence in their line up, and it’s just everyone chipping in and doing their part. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see a repeat of last season, where no Pred tallied more than 51 points. Sullivan has the highest upside with the most overall ice-time along with a decent amount of PP time. Hornqvist has the SOG, but not the ice-time. Dumont appears to be in coach, Barry Trotz, doghouse once again as he’s averaging just a tad over 13 minutes a game. Ward is garnering a fair amount of ice-time, but his offensive upside is limited, as the skill set is just not there. Erat has been dinged up, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a seventh consecutive 49+ point 132+ SOG season from the 29-year old.

 

 

Phoenix

 

Name

Points

SOG

Overall Ice-Time

PP Ice-Time

Status

Ray Whitney

11

27

15:17

2:44

Sell

Wojtek Wolski

9

27

15:57

2:30

Stand Pat

Lauri Korpikoski

8

16

13:22

0:03

WW

Scottie Upshall

6

37

12:44

0:26

WW

Taylor Pyatt

4

25

13:47

0:59

WW

Radim Vrbata

9

50

15:29

2:18

Watch

Lee Stempniak

9

46

14:46

1:59

Stand Pat

Shane Doan

3

18

17:23

3:15

Sell

Petr Prucha

1

10

11:48

0:07

WW

 

Whitney was on par for a pretty ho hum season prior to the five point explosion on Saturday night. The major difference is that he lacks an Eric Staal-type player in Phoenix to really set him up for the points the last few seasons. I’d look for him to fall back towards a 45-50 point pace by season’s end. Wolski hasn’t really had consistent line mates so far this season, which kind of explains the lack of overall production. Either way the ice-time looks to be split fairly evenly amongst all of the Coyote forwards where there won’t be a clear cut point leader in Phoenix. Vrbata is in a similar situation but he’s had pretty consistent line mates in Whitney and Martin Hanzal. The SOG are there, but once again the ice-time is not. I really like Upshall, but he’s been relegated to third line checking duties and won’t make much of a fantasy impact. Doan is on the IR with a lower-body injury which is serious enough for it to be considered week-to-week. I don’t know what you can sell him for, but if you can get something for him it might be worth a shot.

 

 

San Jose

 

Name

Points

SOG

Overall Ice-Time

PP Ice-Time

Status

Patrick Marleau

17

58

20:28

4:20

Stand Pat

Ryane Clowe

12

44

17:28

2:50

Buy

Jamie McGinn

2

18

11:46

0:01

WW

John McCarthy

3

16

9:39

0:11

WW

Dany Heatley

17

45

20:09

4:20

Stand Pat

Devin Setoguchi

5

41

14:30

2:40

Sell

Jamal Mayers

3

10

8:40

0:03

WW

 

Most of the value resides in the hands of Marleau and Heatley, as you would pretty much expect it to be. The line of Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture and Clowe has been buzzing the last few games. The trio has combined for a total of 12 points in the last three contests. Clowe is a solid buy candidate for the rest of 2010-11. With the positive news of the productive second line, it’s bad news for Setoguchi. He’s clearly receiving the shaft. Since the formation of the potent second line, Seto has been relegated to just 11:30 per contest. If this trend continues, his value will quickly dissipate. Make the smart move and try to pawn him off to an unsuspecting league mate ASAP.

 

 

St. Louis

 

Name

Points

SOG

Overall Ice-Time

PP Ice-Time

Status

David Perron

7

29

18:25

4:30

Stand Pat

Brad Winchester

0

6

6:39

0:24

WW

Matt D’Agostini

8

30

13:34

1:34

WW

David Backes

8

40

18:59

3:37

Stand Pat

BJ Crombeen

2

22

12:06

0:03

WW

 

A bit of a short list for the Blues as NHL.com pretty much listed all of their forwards as centers. Don’t threat, I’ll make sure I include them all in next week’s column. There’s a little bit of value with Perron, but probably nothing that’s going to dramatically make a difference on your fantasy squad. Backes’ current 41-point pace probably isn’t anything to be cheerful about. The scoring is just too spread out for anyone to really run away with the Blues’ scoring title. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the entire top-nine tally between the 45-55 point range.

 

 

Vancouver

 

Name

Points

SOG

Overall Ice-Time

PP Ice-Time

Status

Daniel Sedin

23

52

18:42

3:24

Stand Pat

Mason Raymond

11

49

17:14

1:46

Stand Pat

Raffi Torres

9

33

13:38

1:26

Sell

Tanner Glass

4

7

7:59

0:02

WW

Peter Schafer

1

9

9:56

0:03

WW

Alex Burrows

2

16

15:34

0:01

Watch

Jeff Tambellini

3

10

12:14

1:03

WW

Mikael Samuelsson

12

51

17:04

1:57

Stand Pat

Jannik Hansen

4

22

15:21

0:10

WW

Guillaume Desbiens

0

4

7:21

0:06

WW

 

You don’t need me to tell you that Sedin pretty much holds most of the value in Vancouver. Raymond and Samuelsson both are enjoying their top-six roles and should maintain a healthy production for the season. Torres is off to a hot start, but you can’t expect him to keep it up while averaging just 13 minutes per contest. So sell him immediately now that Burrows has returned. With just two points in seven contests, since his return, I’m starting to get a little bit worried about Burrows. Shoulder injuries, especially the dreaded torn labrum kind, tends to take well over a year to recuperate back to full strength. Just look at the production of Mike Richards, Vinny Lecavalier and probably Kyle Okposo post-surgery. So if I were a Burrows’ owner, I’d quietly shop him around to see what I can get in return.

 

Questions or comments? As always I’ll be ready and willing to discuss them with you in the comments section below. We’ll see you next week, as we conclude the final part of the series by analysing the Fantasy Indicators of Success 2010 for centers from the Western Conference.

 


Write comment
Comments (16)add comment

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Hudler

NHL.com has him listed as a C for some strange reason... so i'll cover him next week.
November 18, 2010
Votes: +0

sentium said:

Dakkster
... why no hudler in the article?
November 17, 2010
Votes: +0

gregory churchill said:

spitball
couture great feedback. thank you. conclusion, couture is a buy-high right now. i've missed the boat. i don't think he's worth pavelski ( who, ironically, i own ), and i'm not going to get him offering kunitz $.

i'll wait and see. he is a bit of a band-aid boy. perhaps when he goes down, i'll try then.
November 17, 2010
Votes: +0

bball said:

bballplyr321
Couture Mr Ma,

As usual, fantastic journalism. I really look forward to your article every week. It always seems completely objective and really adds a lot to the site.

A couple more comments on Couture. I have had a chance to watch this guy in person and although he definitely seems legit, I would advise that people to proceed with some caution. He has had an injury history similar to Zetterberg in that sometime throughout the season, he is going to get banged up and miss a few here or there. In addition, McLellan loves to juggle his lines to shake things up. Although I have seen how he has energized that 2nd line, he did the exact same thing to the 3rd line to start the season (Mitchell and McGinn were his wingers and they looked AWESOME when paired with Couture) and he sparked a multi point outburst from both Heatley and Marleau when he took over for big Joe on the top line when he was out for the questionable two game suspension. So I would not put it past McLellan to move Couture around to try and light a fire under the rear ends of some of his slumping players.

That being said, he has always been better than a point per game at every level of his career. Although I do not see this pace continuing for him throughout this rookie season, I believe that he is definitely worth a flyer in some deeper one year leagues and should be considered as a longer term project in keeper leagues. The overall comparison that I would make is that he is Pavelski with a little better scoring touch. So if you are looking to make an offer (Mr churchill), that would be the basis that I use. What would you be willing to give up for Pavelski?
November 17, 2010
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Couture

Sorry missed that question...

Hmmm the thing is I think it depends on your league mates, with his hot streak some owners might want to sell massively high on him or some might recognize the lack of data to dive head first. To be fair he doesn't have the history to really warrant anything big, so at best I might offer a sell-high guy like Bertuzzi, Torres, MacArthur, or Ladd. If I'm an owner I might continue to squeeze to see what I can get...

The problem is depth. The top-line will get all of the points. They aren't going to outpoint JT, Heater or Marleau...

I wrote an article earlier in the summer about depth charts and expected point totals.
http://www.dobberhockey.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2944:earmarked-for-success-west-2010-part-one&catid=41:ryan-ma&Itemid=77

My guess is that you'll have to throw in Pavelski as the 4th best scorer, then probably Clowe as the 5th... so at best I think I'll label Couture as the possible 6th best scorer on the Sharks.

According to the numbers, a player that is 6th ranked averages 35 points, with a max of 53 and a low of 22... So I mean best case scenario I'd work with is the 53 that Knuble tallied with the Caps and work down from there.

Sharks are averaging 2.94 goals per game, which is nothing near the 3.82 that the Caps tallied last season, so you probably have to knock off a few more points.

Also you have to factor in Setoguchi as well. He's provides some competition to Couture, so probably knock off a few more points.

IMO, based on the discussion above, I think he's probably finishes the season with 45 points.

Which is probably around David Jones, Jussi Jokinen, Chris Kunitz, or a Michael Ryder type...
November 17, 2010
Votes: +0

gregory churchill said:

spitball
couture i'd love to grab him in my dobber entry league (i think we all would). he's completely energized pavelski. so, how big an offer? he looks like a scoring-only guy...no pms. could be a strong +/- if the goaltending stays decent. i've been waffling all over, trying to come up with an offer that looks strong, but without the over-pay. can you think of a couple equivalent talents? other players you think are about level with where you expect couture to finish the season? fillpula? raymond? thanks.
November 16, 2010
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: John Hillburg

My bad. I was just lazy chucking in the 5 letters. Didn't think it would make that much of a difference...

but technically speaking University of Nebraska- Omaha is still under the umbrella of University of Nebraska, so I'm not entirely wrong am I?
November 16, 2010
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Greg Churchil

Good pick up on Palmieri, but I think he's mostly going to be a flash in the pan type thing, nothing that's going to dramatically alter your fantasy fate. Once Lupul comes back that top-six,seven becomes pretty solidified...

Avs, you mean... hahaha. Yeah I don't mind Porter former College hockey player of the year (forgot the name of the trophy) he has upside, but I think it's more of a third line checker role though... I think they desperately need Mueller back. That line is going to take off once he returns.

Benn, fair enough.

A lot of depth in Det... points starting to be spread out a lot more.

Erat is consistent, but its like Brunette, if consistency is what you're after or
you need more... C problem solved once Lombardi returns...

Hanzal is a monster, I've been watching him the last few weeks, impresses me quite a bit. I'm not a fan of the Yotes just cause they don't really go after offense, but he's a solid own IMO.

Keep Couture the last 3 Sharks games that I've watched, that line has been absolutely buzzing. Could rival the top line to be honest...
November 16, 2010
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Ward

Ward just doesn't have the offensive upside. He's got maybe 30-35 point potential, but that's about it.

Also he's kinda playing on the 2nd unit with Dumont and Legwand, not exactly the same as the first unit with Hornqvist, Sullivan, O'Reilly, Weber and Suter...

THey desperately need Erat back to put some offense back into that 2nd unit.
November 16, 2010
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Jackets

The problem with the Jackets like a lot of other teams is there isn't a clear top-six. I think Huse's injury cleared up a the way for Filatov, so that helped, but once he's back we'll go back to square one.

A lot of teams out West are trying to spread offense approach (PHX, NSH, STL), which makes the fantasy game much harder to judge/predict.
November 16, 2010
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Kane

Jean, don't get me wrong, Kane still has plenty of value for fantasy purposes, but I know for a fact that there are plenty of people out there that spent a second even a first round pick on Kane... When you invest that heavily on a player you kind of want numbers that are above and beyond what anyone else can provide you with.

A lot of people were expecting him to hit better than the 88 last season, and stated a few reasons behind it, such as another year older, playoffs gave him more confidence, no more depth... the thing is with Hossa there to steal points, I just think he's going to be hard pressed to repeat let alone beat the 88 that he recorded last season.

The positive is that he does carry that "big name" status, so if you play your cards right at the trading table, you could utilize that in your discussions and blow him up much more than he really is. I just listed a few names off my head that are a little bit more productive and can better your team. Since you have Perry and St. Louis already, there probably isn't too many upgrades you can swing him for.

My suggestion might be to go for a 2 for 2 trade, and snag a slight downgrade at the RW position but add a bigger upgrade in another position. Eg.) Kane + Morrow for Chris Stewart + Nash or something like that...
November 16, 2010
Votes: +0

John Hillburg said:

CommittedToTheIndian
... It might not bother any Canadian readers or many if any American readers, but it bothers this one: Scott Parse played at the University of Nebraska-Omaha, not the University of Nebraska. That's like saying someone played at Minnesota when he really played at Minnesota-Duluth, or Alabama instead of Alabama-Huntsville, or Cal/UCLA or Texas/UTEP, etc., etc. In each instance, the main campus and branch campus are completely separate athletically. Good information here, as usual, and I can deal (barely) with the bad grammar and punctuation, but wrong athletic program = fact error.
November 16, 2010
Votes: +2

gregory churchill said:

spitball
... great read. thanks, ma. lots to chew over.

a couple thoughts;

ducks, add palmieri to the ana watch list. long-shot, but loads of talent and on the road, ryan often lines up at center, giving some lucky lw a chance to skate with the big boys.

rockies, add porter to watch list. porter is getting time with stastney and stewart, and scored a pp goal last night.

stars, in a pool that counts hits and blocked shots, i'm hang onto benn. he's getting time with morrow and ribiero, was injured early, and is very talented. i like his odds of improved production.

wings. all of a sudden, hudler is teasing. big bert is skating with cleary and modano, huds with fillpula. i think he is a good waiver pick-up and stash.

preds, i've waivered on claiming erat each of the last four weeks. finally decided no. hope he comes back strong, but i don't see him getting pp1 time as long as hornqvist is healthy. and the preds have issues at center.

coyotes, i'm hanging onto doan. perhaps i'm being nostalgic. i'm grabbing hanzal off waivers, or making a small deal to acquire.

sharks, i've got couture on my buy list. but the price is steep. how much do you think he is worth at this time?

cheers,
spitball
November 16, 2010
Votes: +0

DuklaNation said:

DuklaNation
... Interesting how little PP time everyone gets. PPs must be really low this season. How does Ward avg 2min of PP when he has just 4 pts? That tells you why Trotz is not fantasy friendly.
November 16, 2010
Votes: +0

Pengwin7 said:

Pengwin7
Nice These are awesome. Love the numbers. Thanks Ma!
CBJ seems like one of the toughest teams in the league to get a good read on. Really good job crunching the numbers & trends on the Jackets!
November 16, 2010
Votes: +0

jean-roch noel said:

chooper
... Who can I take to replace Kane I got Perry & St-louis I dont want Heatley.Than you
November 16, 2010 | url
Votes: +0
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