OndrejPalat


Forensics: Is Palat a rookie keeper or a sell high?

 

If Ondrej Palat is not yet on the fantasy radar in your league it is somewhat understandable. Palat is a 22-year-old rookie who was drafted in the seventh round in 2011 by Tampa Bay. He went on to sign his entry-level deal a few months later and had a brief cup of coffee with Tampa Bay last season. Palat posted typical numbers for a young forward called up in his first line of duty and posted four points in 14 games.

 

2012-2013 Regular Season

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

14

2

2

4

0.29

23

5

0

16

1

0

0

0

0

00:19

6.4

17.4

11:44

19.3

 

One off-season later and Palat is gradually working his way onto the fantasy scene and by now he must be on your radar. Courtesy of Frozen Pool, here is a look at Palat’s statistics so far this year. With 31 points in 56 games he is posting respectable numbers for a rookie. What is most impressive is his plus-20 rating.

 

2013-2014 Regular Season

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

56

11

20

31

0.55

45

20

18

109

2

0

1

1

2

01:03

19.0

36.1

17:16

28.2

 

Palat did not exactly come out blazing this season. Taking a look at his first quarter summary he actually had a really slow start with just five points in the first 20 games, only taking 28 shots on goal.

 

First Quarter Summary

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

20

3

2

5

0.25

21

0

6

28

1

0

0

0

0

00:13

3.5

32.7

14:15

23.3

 

Palat has slowly improved his numbers and below is a snapshot of his second quarter. 

You will notice he posted a plus nine during this 20-game span and increased his shots on goal from the 28 in the previous quarter to 45 SOG. His power play time also began to increase as a result of his strong play and also the unfortunate injury to Lightning forward Steven Stamkos. To be expected, Palat’s point production also increased from five points in the previous quarter to 11 points in the second quarter.

 

Second Quarter Summary

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

20

3

8

11

0.55

45

9

8

45

0

0

0

1

1

01:31

26.6

39.6

18:49

30.6

 

Palat continued his improving trend and so far he is having a great third quarter. Below is a breakdown of his almost point-per-game pace (15 in 16) and Palat’s continued success in the plus/minus department.

Third Quarter Summary

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

16

5

10

15

0.94

77

11

4

36

1

0

1

0

1

01:31

31.8

36.4

19:07

31.4

 

Palat was likely snapped off the waiver wire in most leagues by this point. If he is still around, it would be in your best interests to make a claim, especially while Stamkos remains out. Since Stamkos’ injury, the Palat-Johnson-St. Louis line has become a staple in Tampa Bay. In fact the trio has climbed the overall line rankings and is one of the most productive lines in the league.

 

Let’s take a look at this season’s most productive lines. You will see that the temporary Tampa trio rank right alongside the Capitals and Blues top guns respectively.

 

Rank

Line

Points

1

BOS-IGINLA,JAROME - BOS-KREJCI,DAVID - BOS-LUCIC,MILAN

105

2

TOR-BOZAK,TYLER - TOR-KESSEL,PHIL - TOR-VAN RIEMSDYK,JAMES

91

3

CHI-HOSSA,MARIAN - CHI-SHARP,PATRICK - CHI-TOEWS,JONATHAN

77

4

NYI-OKPOSO,KYLE - NYI-TAVARES,JOHN - NYI-VANEK,THOMAS

73

5

ANA-GETZLAF,RYAN - ANA-PENNER,DUSTIN - ANA-PERRY,COREY

62

5

OTT-MACARTHUR,CLARKE - OTT-RYAN,BOBBY - OTT-TURRIS,KYLE

62

6

PHI-GIROUX,CLAUDE - PHI-HARTNELL,SCOTT - PHI-SIMMONDS,WAYNE - PHI-VORACEK,JAKUB

59

7

PIT-CROSBY,SIDNEY - PIT-DUPUIS,PASCAL - PIT-KUNITZ,CHRIS

57

7

MTL-DESHARNAIS,DAVID - MTL-GALLAGHER,BRENDAN - MTL-PACIORETTY,MAX

57

7

WPG-LADD,ANDREW - WPG-LITTLE,BRYAN - WPG-WHEELER,BLAKE

57

8

STL-BOUWMEESTER,JAY - STL-PIETRANGELO,ALEX

55

9

DAL-BENN,JAMIE - DAL-NICHUSHKIN,VALERI - DAL-SEGUIN,TYLER

54

10

MTL-MARKOV,ANDREI - MTL-SUBBAN,P.K.

51

11

T.B-JOHNSON,TYLER - T.B-PALAT,ONDREJ - T.B-ST. LOUIS,MARTIN

50

11

WSH-BACKSTROM,NICKLAS - WSH-BROUWER,TROY - WSH-JOHANSSON,MARCUS - WSH-OVECHKIN,ALEXANDER

50

12

STL-BACKES,DAVID - STL-OSHIE,T.J. - STL-STEEN,ALEXANDER

49

 

This line combination has also been responsible for half of Palat’s points this season. One positive note is that Johnson and Palat seem to have great chemistry which should bode well for Palat when the inevitable reunion of Stamkos and St. Louis after the Olympic break. In fact Johnson has been on the ice for 25 of Palat’s 31 points.

 

Total Points for Ondrej Palat : 31

Str

On Ice Line Combination

Points

%Total
Points

EV

JOHNSON,TYLER - PALAT,ONDREJ - ST. LOUIS,MARTIN

16

51.61%

EV

JOHNSON,TYLER - PALAT,ONDREJ - PURCELL,EDWARD

4

12.9%

EV

KILLORN,ALEX - KUCHEROV,NIKITA - PALAT,ONDREJ

3

9.68%

EV

JOHNSON,TYLER - PALAT,ONDREJ - PANIK,RICHARD

2

6.45%

SH

JOHNSON,TYLER - PALAT,ONDREJ

2

6.45%

EV

FILPPULA,VALTTERI - KILLORN,ALEX - PALAT,ONDREJ

1

3.23%

EV

JOHNSON,TYLER - PALAT,ONDREJ - PURCELL,EDWARD - ST. LOUIS,MARTIN

1

3.23%

EV

CROMBEEN,BRANDON - PALAT,ONDREJ - THOMPSON,NATE

1

3.23%

PP

KILLORN,ALEX - KUCHEROV,NIKITA - PALAT,ONDREJ

1

3.23%


Final Forensic Notes:

 

Expect Palat to accumulate points at a .8 per game pace until Stamkos returns. After that, it is likely that his point per game pace will drop to .6-65 due to the obvious decline in ice time and power play time.

 

 

Palat has taken an average of 2.25 shots per game over his past 36 games. This works out to be 185 shots over the course of a season - a nice bonus for leagues that count SOG.


Important: Palat’s success seems to be very reliant on how much he is playing alongside St. Louis. If you look closer at his Frozen Pool profile you will see that in the first quarter of this season he played with St. Louis 0% of the time, in the second quarter 56% of the time, and in the third quarter he has been on a line with St. Louis 81% of the time. These statistics are right in line with Palat’s point production.

 

Palat is a definite sell high before Stamkos returns – coax your trading partners with his great plus/minus and recent hot streak.

 

Previously in Frozen Pool Forensics:

 

Paul Stastny

Olympic Snubs


Write comment
Comments (5)add comment

MolsonX said:

MolsonX
... @Hitman - good point and it is a possibility that Palat plays on the top line with St.Louis and Stamkos in the future.

Historically though, Palat has always lined up with Johnson. Lines get shuffled all of the time, but that seems to be where the team is going, with Johnson-Palat as an ongoing tandem. But your point is a good one, as there is a chance he could line up on the first line. But then again we say that about lots of players. Examples: Bennett with Malkin/Neal; the revolving winger with the Sedins that never sticks etc. There are more examples of this not working than working.

St.Louis likely has 2 years left after this year, so is Palat's chemistry with St. Louis a good indicator of his long term value? I would think his ability to play with Stamkos and even more importantly how he and Johnson develop together is the better way to monitor his value going forward. Personally his slow start and his direct correlation of production while playing alongside St. Louis is a worry - especially when the Palat-Johnson-St.Louis line loses St. Louis when Stamkos returns.

Before playing w/ Marty, his numbers were sub par (5 points in his first 20 games). Then again he is a rookie with only 70 games under his belt so to be fair it is early to judge. I would just be cautious before anointing him as a 60-70 point player at this point.

Another factor to consider - Drouin is coming down the pipe and plays LW. His arrival will surely bump Palat down the LW depth chart in the near future.


Thanks again for your feedback, it is genuinely appreciated. I wish I would have put a more comprehensive piece together but unfortunately a lot of my time this week went into preparing and researching my line ups for the Draft Street Hockey Championship. The chance to win big bucks had to take priority this time around smilies/smiley.gif


Cheers.






February 09, 2014
Votes: +2

The Hockey Hitman said:

The Hockey Hitman
note One thing the article above fails to take in account is the fact Palat and St. Louis have developed some pretty magical chemistry themselves...insert Stamkos in the middle of that duo, BOOM there's your new 1st line in Tampa Bay. Also, Palat has received only marginal powerplay time to date and I wouldn't expect that to change....not because Palat isn't talented enough, because he is...but because there are too many other offensive weapons in TB right now.
February 09, 2014
Votes: +0

MolsonX said:

MolsonX
... Great point about the single PPP shoeless.

I agree we could see him as a 60 point winger, but would definitely try and sell high in a one year.

Cheers.
February 07, 2014
Votes: +0

klaud_lundgren said:

klaud_lundgren
... bonus if your league counts hits. kid is really an all around player.
February 07, 2014
Votes: +0

Shoeless said:

Shoeless
Palat Uh all that power play time he is going lose has garnered him 1 point this season - so he won't regress there. With Flipper out for six weeks I don't think you are going to see much of a regression during that span. As far as long term? Just a hunch but I think we have one of those 60 point wingers on our hands.
February 07, 2014
Votes: +1
You must be logged in to post a comment. Please register if you do not have an account yet.

busy