BobbyRyan


How four players have had their values affected by recent Olympic snubs.

 

It has been just over two weeks since the January 7th deadline that brought all of us the long anticipated announcements of Olympic hockey rosters. We expected the respective selection committees to leave us with some surprises and disappointments to debate. The most educational moment - apparently that Nedved guy still has it going on. Yes, Petr Nedved is going to the show while Radim Vrbata and Jiri Hudler keep double checking their passports in disbelief. Players have been left off of rosters due to politics, potential team chemistry, skating ability, or whether they were a right or left handed shot.

 

 

Regardless of the reason, at the end of the day these players have an obligation to their NHL teams and are expected to produce at a high level help their teams. Some players step up and respond to the disappointing news, still hoping they will be next in line if one of their countrymen goes down to injury. Others let the disappointment get to them. I am no sports psychologist, but anyone who has played or watched sports knows that psychology is always a factor.

 

Courtesy of Frozen Pool, let’s take a look at a few of the Olympic snubs and see how these players have responded to the disappointment.


Motivated

 

Looking at Eric Staal’s numbers so far this season, we shouldn’t be that surprised at his exclusion from Team Canada. What stands out the most is his minus 12 rating on the year which was definitely a factor in leaving him off of the team.

 

2013-2014 Regular Season

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

46

11

29

40

0.87

71

-12

48

126

0

1

11

2

4

03:35

63.6

19.9

20:29

33.6

 

At one time there was discussion that we could have had three Staals (also Jordan and Marc) on the Canadian Olympic team. Instead we have no Staals - none. Staal had his typical tough start to the year and posted just 11 points in his first 20 games. Add in the disappointment of not making the Canadian Olympic team and Staal could have taken his ball and gone home. Instead, he has taken it in stride. Staal is a typical second half player and at some point we expected him to turn it around this year. Over his past four games he has four multi point affairs and nine points, showing signs of the finish we expect from him year after year.

 

Last Six Games (Eric Staal)

 

Date

OPP

G

A

P

+/-

PIM

S

PPG

PPP

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

TOI/G

%TOI

Jan 19

T.B

1

1

2

0

0

3

0

1

0

05:00

71.9

23:47

39.6

Jan 18

FLA

0

2

2

2

0

3

0

0

1

02:40

66.7

16:36

27.7

Jan 13

CGY

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

0

0

00:57

47.5

21:25

35.7

Jan 4

@NYI

0

0

0

0

2

0

0

0

0

02:46

71.2

09:48

16.3

Jan 2

@WSH

0

2

2

1

0

1

0

1

0

04:07

62.1

21:18

34.7

Dec 31

MTL

1

2

3

1

8

2

0

1

0

08:11

66.5

24:31

38.6

 

Recently Jiri Tlusty was reunited with Staal and Alexander Semin. Over the course of the season the trio has played at even strength over 40% of the time.

 

Even Strength Line Combinations

Freq

Line Combination

41.8%

SEMIN,A - STAAL,E - TLUSTY,J

33.6%

RUUTU,T - SKINNER,J - STAAL,E

9.9%

GERBE,N - RUUTU,T - STAAL,E

9.3%

SEMIN,A - SKINNER,J - STAAL,E

5.4%

RUUTU,T - SEMIN,A - STAAL,E


Forensic Notes:

-Staal is less than 50% in FOW at even strength but has won 101 out of 175 face-offs on the power play which is good for 58% with the man advantage.

-Expect Staal to finish the season at a point per game pace and to continue his pace of a PIM per game to help out with your peripheral stats.

-Semin has six goals in his past four games after a slow start to the year. Tlusty has five points in his last three games.

-Staal is likely third in line if there is an injury to a Team Canada player, with Martin St. Louis and Claude Giroux higher on the selection committee’s depth chart at this point.


Highly Motivated

 

The biggest surprise on January 7th was the exclusion of last season’s Art Ross winner Martin St. Louis from Canada’s Olympic team. The biggest surprise of Martin St. Louis’ stat line is his plus/minus. Currently St. Louis is sitting at plus-16 on the year. He will barely get you PIMs but his power play production is nice, with 15 of his 50 points coming with the man advantage.

 

2013-2014 Regular Season (Martin St. Louis)

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

50

25

25

50

1.00

82

16

6

134

4

8

15

0

1

03:30

62.6

21.8

21:40

35.5

 

It is no secret that St. Louis has been the most inspired hockey player on Earth over the past two weeks. He was named NHL first star of the week and in his past six games has posted six goals and three assists.

 

Last Six Games (Martin St. Louis)

 

Date

OPP

G

A

P

+/-

PIM

S

PPG

PPP

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

TOI/G

%TOI

Jan 19

@CAR

0

1

1

1

2

0

0

0

0

01:48

52.2

22:19

37.2

Jan 18

S.J

4

0

4

1

0

6

2

2

0

02:40

81.2

24:46

41.3

Jan 16

NYI

1

0

1

0

0

1

1

1

0

02:34

75.5

24:23

37.5

Jan 14

@NYR

0

1

1

0

0

2

0

1

0

01:58

73.3

21:15

35.4

Jan 13

@CBJ

0

1

1

1

0

3

0

0

0

04:07

60.2

20:13

33.7

Jan 11

@PHI

1

0

1

0

0

4

0

0

0

03:40

61.1

20:29

34.1

 

St. Louis has also had the ability to make his line mates better and a snapshot of his even line production shows 13 of his 50 points resulting from playing on a line with Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat.

 

Even Strength Line Production (Martin St.Louis)

Pnts

%Total

Line Combination

13

61.9%

JOHNSON,T - PALAT,O - ST. LOUIS,M

2

9.5%

HEDMAN,V - SALO,S

2

9.5%

NO LINEMATES

2

9.5%

BROWN,J - FILPPULA,V - ST. LOUIS,M

2

9.5%

KILLORN,A - ST. LOUIS,M - STAMKOS,S


Forensic Notes:

-Since the announcement of Team Canada’s roster, St. Louis has 13 points in nine games.

-Tyler Johnson has six points in his past six games.


Status Quo


Claude Giroux was considered a lock to make the Canadian Olympic team last summer. Instead he played himself off of the team with a very poor start. In fact, Giroux did not score a goal this season until playing the Oilers on November 9th, finally ending a 21 game goal scoring drought.

 

Eventually Giroux’s production leveled out and he is slowly chipping away to get back to the point per game pace we have come to expect. In the 12 games before the Canadian team was announced Giroux posted 18 points. It was a valiant effort but one that fell just short in the end.

 

2013-2014 Regular Season (Claude Giroux)

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

50

13

31

44

0.88

72

-1

26

137

5

4

19

0

0

03:59

62.3

17.5

21:02

34.5

 

Since being left off of Team Canada’s roster Giroux has eight points in 10 games. In his past six games, Giroux has five points with two of those games being a multi point effort. This is close to the status quo that we have come to expect from Giroux and it does not appear that his Olympic exclusion has had a negative impact. The exclusion has not caused an increase in production either, especially when comparing his past 10 games to his 12 games before Team Canada was announced.

 

Last Six Games (Claude Giroux)

 

Date

OPP

G

A

P

+/-

PIM

S

PPG

PPP

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

TOI/G

%TOI

Jan 20

@NYI

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

0

0

03:34

59.4

21:54

33.7

Jan 18

NYI

0

2

2

1

0

2

0

0

0

02:44

68.3

19:57

33.3

Jan 16

NSH

0

0

0

-1

2

3

0

0

0

05:26

70.9

21:26

33.0

Jan 14

@BUF

0

1

1

-2

0

2

0

1

0

06:25

65.5

19:58

33.3

Jan 12

@NYR

0

0

0

-1

0

2

0

0

0

03:24

57.8

16:13

27.0

Jan 11

T.B

0

2

2

-1

0

6

0

1

0

03:57

82.9

18:47

31.3

 

 Impacted

The most dramatic exclusion from Olympic hockey this year is definitely Bobby Ryan. We are well aware of the ESPN article that gave us an inside look at the Team USA selection process and the controversial comments made by Brian Burke about Ryan’s “intensity”.

 

Unfortunately for Ryan, he has not responded to the drama or the Olympic snub. After starting the season with 37 points in his first 40 games, things have gone downhill and he is now on a .76/game pace. Ryan has posted six power play goals and a solid plus-11, which should have impressed US Olympic brass.

 

Here is a look at Ryan’s 2013-2014 statistics: 

 

2013-2014 Regular Season (Bobby Ryan)

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

50

19

19

38

0.76

62

11

16

135

2

6

8

0

0

02:47

48.2

0.6

17:07

28.1

 

Since being excluded from the US roster on December 31st, Ryan has just three points in nine games. Over his past six games, Ryan has just two points.

 

Last Six Games

 

Date

OPP

G

A

P

+/-

PIM

S

PPG

PPP

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

TOI/G

%TOI

Jan 21

@WSH

0

0

0

1

0

3

0

0

0

02:02

29.0

13:21

22.3

Jan 18

NYR

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

01:24

57.9

16:29

27.5

Jan 16

MTL

1

0

1

1

0

6

0

0

0

01:07

55.8

15:21

25.4

Jan 14

@MIN

0

0

0

0

0

4

0

0

0

03:43

50.2

16:15

27.1

Jan 11

@NSH

0

0

0

1

0

5

0

0

0

01:30

75.0

18:03

27.8

Jan 8

@COL

0

1

1

0

0

1

0

0

0

03:31

68.5

19:25

32.1

 

Ryan’s line mates have been a constant throughout the year as he lines up over 75% of the time with Kyle Turris who is on pace for a career season of 62 points and Clarke MacArthur who is also on pace for 62 points.

 

Even Strength Line Combinations (bobby Ryan)

Freq

Line Combination

75.1%

MACARTHUR,C - RYAN,B - TURRIS,K

11.3%

MICHALEK,M - RYAN,B - SPEZZA,J

5.4%

CONACHER,C - RYAN,B - TURRIS,K


Final Forensic Note: Ryan is also on pace for 62 points this year. Some Ryan owners may be concerned as the Olympic exclusion seems to have had an impact on his play as of late.

 

Previously in Frozen Pool Forensics:


Jaden Schwartz

Bryzgalov and Dubnyk


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