JadenSchwartz


Jaden Schwartz is having a breakout season. Can he keep it up?

 

It’s never easy to trade a young guy in a keeper pool, and it’s even harder to trade a young guy with a great cap hit in a salary cap league.

 

But last week, I made a deal in a cap league that saw me trade Jaden Schwartz. It wasn’t an easy move, as Schwartz is having a great season. However, Henrik Lundqvist was coming back and goalie help was needed as Braydon Holtby and Ondrej Pavelec weren’t getting it done. (For the record, the complete deal was Jaden Schwartz, Jakub Voracek and Michael Del Zotto for Henrik Lundqvist, Carl Hagelin and Jamie McBain.)

 

 

I’m still wondering if it was the right move. Schwartz is one of the best left wingers in the league this season, despite going the last five games without a point. Plus, with his low cap hit — just $830,000 this season — Schwartz is one of the best bargains in cap leagues. He’s one of seven Blues to already hit the 30-point mark as he has 15 goals and 32 points.

 

Why is the soon-to-be-RFA having such a great season, and can he keep up this pace?

Let’s start by looking at his linemates this season, according to Frozen Pool.

 

Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

22.63%

EV

21 BERGLUND,PATRIK - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN - 91 TARASENKO,VLADIMIR

14.88%

EV

42 BACKES,DAVID - 74 OSHIE,T.J. - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN

14%

EV

9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN - 17 SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR - 91 TARASENKO,VLADIMIR

6.92%

EV

74 OSHIE,T.J. - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN - 17 SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR

4.97%

EV

9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN - 17 SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR - 25 STEWART,CHRIS

3.76%

SH

9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN - 17 SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR

2.22%

EV

21 BERGLUND,PATRIK - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN - 25 STEWART,CHRIS

1.95%

EV

42 BACKES,DAVID - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN - 20 STEEN,ALEXANDER

1.58%

EV

9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN - 17 SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR

1.48%

PP

42 BACKES,DAVID - 74 OSHIE,T.J. - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN

1.44%

EV

74 OSHIE,T.J. - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN - 20 STEEN,ALEXANDER

1.31%

EV

12 ROY,DEREK - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN - 25 STEWART,CHRIS

 

Schwartz has been playing with quite a few line combinations, mostly because of injuries. Vladimir Tarasenko was his regular line mate until Alexander Steen went down with a concussion 12 games ago, allowing Schwartz to start playing on the top line.  

Just look at Schwartz’s last 10 games before last night’s game, courtesy of Frozen Pool.

 

Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

43.44%

EV

42 BACKES,DAVID - 74 OSHIE,T.J. - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN

22.7%

EV

74 OSHIE,T.J. - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN - 17 SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR

5.12%

PP

42 BACKES,DAVID - 74 OSHIE,T.J. - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN

3.67%

EV

21 BERGLUND,PATRIK - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN - 91 TARASENKO,VLADIMIR

2.23%

PP

74 OSHIE,T.J. - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN - 17 SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR

1.44%

SH

21 BERGLUND,PATRIK - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN

1.44%

EV

42 BACKES,DAVID - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN - 25 STEWART,CHRIS

1.31%

EV

9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN - 17 SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR - 91 TARASENKO,VLADIMIR

1.31%

SH

9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN - 17 SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR

1.31%

SH

42 BACKES,DAVID - 74 OSHIE,T.J. - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN

1.18%

EV

42 BACKES,DAVID - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN - 91 TARASENKO,VLADIMIR

1.18%

EV

42 BACKES,DAVID - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN

1.05%

PP

42 BACKES,DAVID - 74 OSHIE,T.J. - 12 ROY,DEREK - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN

1.05%

EV

21 BERGLUND,PATRIK - 74 OSHIE,T.J. - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN

 

That trend continued last night.

 

Games between 2014-01-16 and 2014-01-16

Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

63.89%

EV

42 BACKES,DAVID - 74 OSHIE,T.J. - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN

8.33%

SH

42 BACKES,DAVID - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN

5.56%

EV

42 BACKES,DAVID - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN - 91 TARASENKO,VLADIMIR

5.56%

PP

42 BACKES,DAVID - 74 OSHIE,T.J. - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN

2.78%

EV

9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN - 17 SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR - 91 TARASENKO,VLADIMIR

2.78%

EV

42 BACKES,DAVID - 75 REAVES,RYAN - 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN

 

Schwartz is definitely being given an opportunity to shine, and it did pay off for a while. Schwartz went on a season-high eight-game point streak from Dec. 19 to Jan. 4, scoring goals in six straight during that streak as well.

 

He has cooled off lately, with no points in his last five games, but as long as the Blues are winning, Schwartz should be safe in his position until Steen returns from injury.

 

One of the best aspects of Schwartz’s season is that he is showing his versatility with any line combination. Just have a look at his point production:

 

Total Points for Jaden Schwartz : 31

Str

On Ice Line Combination

Points

%Total
Points

EV

BERGLUND,PATRIK - SCHWARTZ,JADEN - TARASENKO,VLADIMIR

7

22.58%

EV

SCHWARTZ,JADEN - SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR - TARASENKO,VLADIMIR

5

16.13%

EV

BACKES,DAVID - OSHIE,T.J. - SCHWARTZ,JADEN

3

9.68%

EV

SCHWARTZ,JADEN - SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR

2

6.45%

PP

OSHIE,T.J. - SCHWARTZ,JADEN - SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR

2

6.45%

EV

SCHWARTZ,JADEN - SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR - STEWART,CHRIS

2

6.45%

EV

OSHIE,T.J. - SCHWARTZ,JADEN - SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR

2

6.45%

SH

SCHWARTZ,JADEN - SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR

1

3.23%

PP

OSHIE,T.J. - SCHWARTZ,JADEN - TARASENKO,VLADIMIR

1

3.23%

EV

BERGLUND,PATRIK - SCHWARTZ,JADEN - STEWART,CHRIS

1

3.23%

PP

BERGLUND,PATRIK - SCHWARTZ,JADEN - TARASENKO,VLADIMIR

1

3.23%

EV

OSHIE,T.J. - SCHWARTZ,JADEN - STEEN,ALEXANDER

1

3.23%

EV

BERGLUND,PATRIK - SCHWARTZ,JADEN - SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR

1

3.23%

PP

SCHWARTZ,JADEN - SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR - STEEN,ALEXANDER - STEWART,CHRIS

1

3.23%

EV

BERGLUND,PATRIK - ROY,DEREK - STEWART,CHRIS

1

3.23%

 

Since Steen has been injured, Schwartz is averaging 19:03 minutes a game and has played at least 18 minutes in nine of 11 games. Before the Steen injury, Schwartz averaged 16:30 per game, and played at least 18 minutes in just three of 32 games.

Schwartz has the confidence of the coaches, as he is still being counted on during his recent slump.

 

There is some cause for concern for Schwartz’s projections over the rest of the season, mainly the impact of a healthy Steen comes back. The odds are Schwartz gets bumped down the depth chart when Steen returns. This will result in less ice time and less quality linemates. His points should take a hit. Not a huge hit — he did have 25 points in 33 games before the Steen concussion — but it is questionable to count on a second or third line player to keep getting points at that pace.

 

Another concern is Schwartz’s lack of power play time and production. Schwartz has averaged just 1:27 of power play ice time per game, ninth amongst Blues forwards, and has only managed three power play points this season. That’s not very good on a team that is second in the league in powerplay goals.

 

For those in pools with deeper categories, Schwartz is dynamite in one of them: plus/minus. At plus-22, Schwartz is ninth in the league and last night was the first night Schwartz was a minus in 25 games.

 

However, Schwartz lacks any type of a peripheral game. He has just 36 hits and 24 blocked shots in 44 games. He also has just 15 penalty minutes, which is great if you’re a Blues fan, but not great for fantasy hockey players.

 

Overall though, the 21-year-old is exceeding everyone’s expectations in his sophomore season. In leagues that use positions, Schwartz’s value increases even more.  His 15 goals are 12th among NHL left wingers and his 32 points places him sit at 17th.

 

If he keeps this up, Schwartz should be in line for a decent pay raise this summer. And that makes trading him in a cap league a little more palatable.

 

Previously in Forensics:

 

Bryzgalov and Dubnyk

 

Eric Staal


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Comments (4)add comment

newfcollins said:

newfcollins
... Thanks for the feedback guys. Just to add a bit more detail to the trade, I didn't want to get too much into it in the column, but basically, I needed a goalie (have Pavelec and Holtby), and the guy with Lundy had Quick and Varlamov. The other guy was also going for first. So I needed a goalie and he need help.

Also, the scoring systems are whack.

1.1 GOALIE
Wins – 50 Points
Losses in overtime/shootout – 25 Points
Saves – 2 Points
Games played – 1 Points
Goals against – -15 Points
Goals/ Assists – 25 Points
PIM – 3 Points
Shutouts – 50 Points
Shootout Saves – 3 Points
Shootout Goals Against – -7 Points

1.2 FORWARD/DEFENSEMAN
Games played – 1 Point
Goals/ Assists – 25 Points
PIM – 3 Points
Plus/Minus – 10/-10 Points
Shots – 2 Points
Powerplay Points – 5 Points
Shorthanded Points – 10 Points
Hat Trick – 10 Points
Shootout Goals – 3 Points
Hits – 1 Point
Blocked Shots – 1 Point

So I think it was a deal that helped both of us.
January 19, 2014
Votes: +0

MolsonX said:

MolsonX
... Great write-up Tom.

Cheers.
January 17, 2014
Votes: +0

leaftodd said:

leaftodd
@pittshamblyuins And i wouldn't give up Lundy (who i own in all my leagues) for the package. Not remotely close. Just goes to show opinions vary.
January 17, 2014
Votes: +0

pittshamblyuins said:

pittshamblyuins
... Great article...but I don't think I would have given up what you did to get Lundy et al.
January 17, 2014
Votes: +2
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