DevanDubnyk


Is there fantasy value to be found in the Oilers depressing goaltending situation?


While I was watching the news this past Monday, one of the broadcasters mentioned that this was the most depressing week of the year. Most of us take a week or two away from work or school and to relax and slow down, hopefully catching up with family and friends. Eventually January arrives and the Holiday Season is over and everyone gets back into the day to day grind. So in the spirit of “the most depressing week of the year”, as a die-hard Oiler fan it seems most appropriate to discuss the fantasy relevance of Edmonton’s goaltending and what to expect for the rest of the season from Devan Dubnyk and Ilya Bryzgalov.

 

First off, it looks as though Bryzgalov has worked his way into the starter’s role and Dubnyk is now officially second fiddle. Courtesy of Frozen Pool, below we can evaluate Dubnyk’s past six games and see right away that he has only had one start which was a brutal outing versus San Jose on January 2nd where he got lit up for five goals on 36 shots.

 

Last Six Games (Dubnyk)

 

Date

OPP

W

L

OTL

SO

GA

SA

SV

GAA

SV%

TOI

Jan 7

STL

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0.0000

00:00:00

Jan 5

T.B

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0.0000

00:00:00

Jan 3

@ANA

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0.0000

00:00:00

Jan 2

@S.J

0

1

0

0

5

36

31

0.00

0.8611

01:00:00

Dec 31

@PHX

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0.0000

00:00:00

Dec 28

PHI

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0.0000

00:00:00

 

A look at Bryzgalov’s previous six games shows some promise in late December with two overtime losses and save percentages of .921 and .911 respectively. However in his most recent three starts Bryzgalov posted save percentages from .864 to .888 and looked average in a win against Tampa on January 5th. In all five of his recent starts Bryzgalov has allowed at least three goals. The most interesting piece of this six game stretch is Bryzgalov faced each of his former teams (Phoenix, Philadephia, and Anaheim).  The Oilers gave up leads against both the Flyers and Coyotes leading to a shootout loss against Philadelphia and a late overtime loss versus the Coyotes when Keith Yandle scored with less than 10 seconds remaining in overtime. Tack on a blowout loss against the Ducks and it was a rough week for Bryzgalov.

 

Last Six Games (Bryzgalov)

 

Date

OPP

W

L

OTL

SO

GA

SA

SV

GAA

SV%

TOI

Jan 7

STL

0

1

0

0

4

29

25

0.00

0.8621

00:58:13

Jan 5

T.B

1

0

0

0

3

27

24

0.00

0.8889

01:00:00

Jan 3

@ANA

0

1

0

0

5

37

32

0.00

0.8649

00:58:22

Jan 2

@S.J

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0.0000

00:00:00

Dec 31

@PHX

0

0

1

0

4

45

41

0.00

0.9111

01:04:53

Dec 28

PHI

0

0

1

0

3

38

35

0.00

0.9211

01:05:00

 

A snap shot of this year’s regular season statistics gives the edge to Bryzgalov in the more important categories. Bryzgalov is posting a GAA of 3.20 compared to Dubnyk’s 3.31 and Bryzgavlov’s save percentage sits at .905 compared to Dubnyk’s .894.

 

2013-2014 Regular Season (Bryzgalov)

 

Team

GP

W

L

OTL

SO

GA

SA

SV

GAA

SV%

Yrs

Salary

Caphit

EDM

13

3

6

2

1

38

400

362

3.20

0.9050

6

2013-2014 Regular Season (Dubnyk)

 

Team

GP

W

L

OTL

SO

GA

SA

SV

GAA

SV%

Yrs

Salary

Caphit

EDM

30

10

16

2

2

86

816

730

3.31

0.8946

0

3750000

3500000

 

Dubnyk has the edge in wins, but since Bryzgalov’s arrival on November 25th the two goalies are basically a wash in the win department with Dubnyk going 4-6-1 to Bryzgalov’s record of 3-6-2. In summary, both have been awful and have had little help from the team in front of them. Not helping matters is the fact that four Oiler players are in the bottom 25 in the league in plus/minus with Nail Yakupov leading the pack at -24. The next worst Oilers are Gagner -17, Joensuu -15, and Petry -14.


Looking Back

 

It is public knowledge that Bryzgalov had a subpar season in 2012-2013 followed by his contract buyout. What is surprising is Dubnyk’s save percentage in 2012-2013. Looking at last season’s numbers, Dubnyk was on the verge of establishing himself as the true number one in the league after posting a .920 save percentage and a very respectable 2.57 GAA on a bad Oilers team.

 

2012-2013 Regular Season (Bryzgalov)

 

Team

GP

W

L

OTL

SO

GA

SA

SV

GAA

SV%

Yrs

Salary

Caphit

PHI

40

19

17

3

1

107

1066

959

2.79

0.8996

7

6500000

5666667

2012-2013 Regular Season (Dubnyk)

 

Team

GP

W

L

OTL

SO

GA

SA

SV

GAA

SV%

Yrs

Salary

Caphit

EDM

38

14

16

6

2

90

1133

1043

2.57

0.9206

1

3250000

3500000

 

Edmonton’s acquisition of Jason Labarbera in the summer locked Dubnyk in as the team’s number one. Craig MacTavish gave Dubnyk the reigns and the 27-year-old answered the challenge by posting the first quarter statistics below playing himself out of a potential contract extension that would have paid decent dollars. His play also opened the door for Bryzgalov to come back to the league. Note Dubnyk’s GAA of 3.54 and save percentage of .889 to start this season.

 

First Quarter Summary (Dubnyk 2013-2014)

 

GP

W

L

OTL

SO

GA

SA

SV

GAA

SV%

16

4

10

1

0

51

460

409

3.54

0.8891


Final Thoughts - Looking Ahead

 

By now it is clear that both goalies are depth options at best. Neither one of Bryzgalov or Dubnyk have posted consecutive wins since Bryzgalov joined the team in late November. Just after Bryzgalov signed with the Oilers, Dubnyk won three games in a row in mid-November. Dubnyk also won consecutive games on Oct 19th and Oct 22nd. Consistency is clearly an issue for both goalies.

 

It appears that Bryzgalov is going to get the majority of starts going forward. Expect him to stumble but the team will continue to give him opportunities to justify signing him and trading Ladislav Smid. If you are in a deep league and choosing between the two going forward, the safer choice appears to be Bryzgalov. The fact that Bryzgalov started the two games after Dubnyk shut the Flames out on Dec 27th was a huge sign that management and coaching staff are more comfortable with the Russian.

 

 

Dubnyk’s days in Edmonton appear to be numbered unless he has an amazing second half. Even still, he will likely leave and end up signing as a back up on another NHL team next year. If Bryzgalov has an amazing second half, the team will likely re-sign him as a back up and potential starter depending on the free agent market.

 

For those in salary cap leagues, Bryzgalov has a friendlier cap hit at 2.26m/year compared to Dubnyk’s 3.5m/year.

 

For those in leagues that count saves, Bryzgalov may be worth a look or a short term pick up. The Oilers average 30.5 shot against per game, good for 18th in the league.

Previously in Forensics:


Eric Staal

Looking Back


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Comments (2)add comment

MolsonX said:

MolsonX
... @Kofax - Thanks for your comment, and I'm glad you enjoyed the read. I hear what you're saying regarding Mac-T not giving Dubs a vote of confidence per say to start the year. My take is Dubnyk was the starter with little competition behind him in Labarbera, leaving him in a really good position. If Dubnyk played well no changes would have been made, Bryzgalov never would have been signed. It was his job to lose. The poor start wasn't all his fault as the entire team has struggled, but he was very inconsistent during the first two months of the year which were probably the worst of his career. Bad timing since he is in a contract year. In saying that he played well last night in the win over the Pens, so maybe we're about to see a turnaround.

Looks like someone hit you with a -1, so I just gave you a +1 to bring you back up to even, as I do appreciate the comments. Cheers!
January 11, 2014
Votes: +1

Kofax said:

Kofax
... Good article, but there's one point I disagree with in terms of Dubnyk.

I don't think that MacTavish gave him the reigns or a vote of confidence at the beginning of the year. It seemed like MacTavish didn't believe in Dubnyk and was seraching for a starter even before the season started, but couldn't find one so they had to go with him. I think he has lacked confidence and support from coaching and management and in turn it has hurt his numbers. It's seemed like managements mind was made up before the season started, they just couldn't find a fair deal.
January 10, 2014
Votes: +1
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