NailYakupov


Looking back at nine players who gave us pause in 2013...

 

A belated Merry Christmas to all of the forum members, writers, and everyone who spends time here at Dobber Hockey. As we near 2014 hopefully all of you have spent some quality time relaxing with family and friends. All of you have contributed to making this the best fantasy hockey site on the planet and like many of you I am very thankful to be part of this great site. The knowledge that is shared on this site through articles and forum discussions are second to none. The community here at Dobber is second to none and everyone should be very proud.

 

On a personal note, my fiancé and I just had our first Christmas with our four month old son, Rowan. It has been a special week and a great time to reflect and celebrate. So for this week’s Forensics article which is my tenth submission to Dobber Hockey, I have decided to reflect and celebrate my first nine articles. Hopefully it will also add some more perspective on these players as we enter the New Year.

 


Article #1) Forensics: Will the Real David Krejci Please Stand Up?


In my first article the focus was on David Krejci and his ability to post superstar playoff performances yet float through regular seasons as a perennial 60-65 point player. Krejci has 52 points in his past 54 playoff games, but had just come off of three regular seasons where he posted 62, 62, and 33 (a pro-rated 58 points) during the shortened lockout season. So far this year Krejci has established himself as the team’s number one pivot and is currently on pace for 71 points which is on par with his career high 73 points in 2008-2009.

 

2013-2014 Regular Season

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

37

7

25

32

0.86

71

13

22

73

4

1

11

0

0

02:23

56.1

13.3

19:24

32.0

 

By default, Tyler Seguin’s departure has cemented Krejci as Boston’s number one option up the middle. As expected Jarome Iginla has replaced Nathan Horton on the first line and the trio of Lucic-Krejci-Horton has barely been separated this year.

 

Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

67.78%

EV

12 IGINLA,JAROME - 46 KREJCI,DAVID - 17 LUCIC,MILAN

8.17%

PP

12 IGINLA,JAROME - 46 KREJCI,DAVID - 17 LUCIC,MILAN


Reminder: For those in playoff pools and leagues that count playoffs - Krejci is an elite option.

 

Article #2) Forensics: Sam Gagner - Seventh Year Breakout?


Many expected the Oilers to be an offensive powerhouse this season and a number of people predicted that Sam Gagner would be a major beneficiary. Instead Gagner’s potential breakout season has been hampered by the break to his jaw. The Oilers are struggling and so is Gagner who was supposed to flirt with 60 points this season. Instead he is on a 41 point pace.

 

2013-2014 Regular Season

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

26

5

8

13

0.50

41

-16

21

55

1

0

3

0

0

02:41

43.0

15.3

17:33

29.0

 

Consistency in line combinations has also been an issue for Gagner and he seems to line up with Yakupov most frequently. Note Gagner’s minus 16 so far this season – ouch!

 

Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

18.27%

EV

89 GAGNER,SAM - 83 HEMSKY,ALES - 64 YAKUPOV,NAIL

10.38%

EV

89 GAGNER,SAM - 4 HALL,TAYLOR - 64 YAKUPOV,NAIL

8.67%

EV

89 GAGNER,SAM - 4 HALL,TAYLOR - 83 HEMSKY,ALES

6.8%

EV

89 GAGNER,SAM - 57 PERRON,DAVID - 64 YAKUPOV,NAIL


Reminder: Gagner and the Oilers can only improve and showed some life before Christmas. Gagner is coming off of a career year of 38 points in 48 games. Also, early in his career, Gagner was a great late season performer. Perhaps he can find some magic to provide another late run like he did in his first two seasons.

 

2007-2008: 14 points in his last 14 games

2008-2009: 21 points in his final 20 games

2010-2011: 10 points in his final 12 games

 

Article #3) Forensics: How Relevant is Captain Colorado?


Gabriel Landeskog, the youngest captain in NHL history, has only 153 games under his belt. He offers great peripheral contributions to fantasy rosters but during his first two seasons he was essentially a .5 point per game player. This season Landeskog has shown a slight improvement to his offensive numbers and is on pace to exceed his 52 point rookie season and more importantly it looks like he will bury his disappointing 2012-2013 sophomore season. His pace this season for SOG (244), plus/minus (16), and PIM (58) are a nice multi-cat bonus.

 

2013-2014 Regular Season

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

35

10

14

24

0.69

56

6

25

104

2

1

4

0

0

02:24

49.0

4.2

18:33

30.4

 

So far this season Landeskog has seen Paul Stastny as his most frequent pivot.

 

Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

22.38%

EV

92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL - 26 STASTNY,PAUL - 40 TANGUAY,ALEX

19.96%

EV

92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE - 26 STASTNY,PAUL

9.61%

EV

92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL - 29 MACKINNON,NATHAN - 90 O'REILLY,RYAN

7.9%

EV

92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL - 29 MACKINNON,NATHAN - 26 STASTNY,PAUL

7.3%

EV

92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL - 11 MCGINN,JAMIE - 26 STASTNY,PAUL

 

Article #4) Forensics: A Devilish Situation

 

Many hockey experts predicted that Martin Brodeur had become an overnight back-up and that Cory Schneider would be given the reigns as New Jersey’s number one goalie this season. Most predicted that Schneider would be given at least 50-55 starts. Personally (as outlined in my article) my thoughts were the two would end up splitting games this season. Brodeur has led the Devils to five Stanley Cup appearances and three championships. It was expected that the franchise would have a difficult time making the transition so quickly and basically the two have shared the workload.

 

So far Schneider has the better save percentage and GAA but Brodeur has the better record. Expect the team to roll with the hot hand as the Devils are still in the playoff race in the Metropolitan Division.

 

2013-2014 Regular Season (Brodeur)

Team

GP

W

L

OTL

SO

GA

SA

SV

GAA

SV%

Yrs

Salary

Caphit

N.J

21

11

8

2

3

50

512

462

2.38

0.9023

1

5000000

4500000

2013-2014 Regular Season (Schneider)

Team

GP

W

L

OTL

SO

GA

SA

SV

GAA

SV%

Yrs

Salary

Caphit

N.J

17

4

8

5

2

38

423

385

2.20

0.9102

2

4000000

4000000


Reminder: Schneider is unrestricted after 2014-2015 so we should expect him to get the majority of starts next year as the team looks to re-sign him. If the team re-signs Brodeur and we see another year of split starts in Jersey then Schneider is likely to evaluate his options and sign elsewhere.

 

Article #5) Forensics: The Early Rise of Mason Raymond

 

After an abysmal end to his days in Vancouver, Mason Raymond had a nice start to the year. Raymond posted eight points in his first seven games as a Maple Leaf and had 11 points in his first 14 games. As expected, Raymond eventually slowed down but he has rejuvenated his career in Toronto and has proven he can play on any of the team’s top three lines. Raymond has fallen back to Earth but can be a nice short term pick-up for teams in need of a depth winger. Raymond is on pace to match his career high 53-point campaign from 2009-2010.

 

2013-2014 Regular Season

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

39

11

14

25

0.64

53

4

14

86

4

4

8

0

0

02:02

37.2

24.0

18:06

29.5


Reminder: Raymond signed a one year deal with the Leafs and is unrestricted after this season.

 

Article #6) Forensics: Mike Santorelli

 

One of the most surprising stories of the season, Burnaby boy Mike Santorelli has found himself gradually becoming a key player for his hometown Vancouver Canucks. Santorelli was signed to a two way contract last summer and has resurrected his career, playing well enough to set himself up for a decent contract next season. Santorelli is on pace for 53 points which would eclipse his career high 2010-2011 season (in Florida) that saw him finish with 20 goals and 41 points.

 

2013-2014 Regular Season

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

39

7

18

25

0.64

53

14

6

73

2

0

0

0

2

01:27

28.5

31.0

18:42

30.5

 

Santorelli has established himself on the Canucks second line where he has spent the majority of his time and we should expect to see him sign an extension sometime during the last half of the season.

 

Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

23.32%

EV

20 HIGGINS,CHRISTOPHER - 17 KESLER,RYAN - 25 SANTORELLI,MICHAEL

14.19%

EV

14 BURROWS,ALEXANDRE - 20 HIGGINS,CHRISTOPHER - 25 SANTORELLI,MICHAEL


Article #7) Forensics: Nail Yakupov

 

If there is a poster child for this season’s Edmonton Oilers, it is Nail Yakupov. The sophomore’s nightmare campaign completely reflects the challenge the franchise faces as it takes the next step in its rebuild. All hope should not be lost as Yakupov finished last season with 15 points in his final 14 games.

 

This season he is laying an egg and is on pace for 31 points.

 

2013-2014 Regular Season

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

37

6

8

14

0.38

31

-25

28

72

0

4

5

0

0

02:28

40.3

0.3

14:47

24.4

 

Since Gagner’s return from injury the two have played together often and can hopefully find chemistry like they did last year.

 

Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

15.44%

EV

89 GAGNER,SAM - 83 HEMSKY,ALES - 64 YAKUPOV,NAIL

9.61%

EV

14 EBERLE,JORDAN - 93 NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN - 64 YAKUPOV,NAIL

8.77%

EV

89 GAGNER,SAM - 4 HALL,TAYLOR - 64 YAKUPOV,NAIL

5.75%

EV

89 GAGNER,SAM - 57 PERRON,DAVID - 64 YAKUPOV,NAIL


Reminder: Yakupov has only played 85 NHL games and has 45 points in that span – which is similar production to other first overall picks over the past five years.


Article #8) Forensics: Clarke MacArthur

 

This article in late November focused on whether Clarke MacArthur could post 60 points this season, a feat he accomplished in 2010-2011 while playing for the Leafs. When the article was posted MacArthur was on pace for 61 points while playing most of the time with Bobby Ryan and Kyle Turris. One month later and MacArthur’s maintained a 60 point pace, but has since seen more time on a line with Jason Spezza.

 

Here is a look at MacArthur’s most frequent line combinations over the past 10 games.

 

Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

25.63%

EV

16 MACARTHUR,CLARKE - 6 RYAN,BOBBY - 7 TURRIS,KYLE

12.88%

EV

16 MACARTHUR,CLARKE - 19 SPEZZA,JASON - 93 ZIBANEJAD,MIKA

10.23%

EV

16 MACARTHUR,CLARKE - 6 RYAN,BOBBY - 19 SPEZZA,JASON

8.66%

EV

16 MACARTHUR,CLARKE - 9 MICHALEK,MILAN - 19 SPEZZA,JASON

 

Here is a look at MacArthur’s current pace.

 

2013-2014 Regular Season

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

38

11

17

28

0.74

60

14

40

80

2

4

7

0

1

02:57

48.3

27.9

18:21

30.1

 

The Ryan-Turris-MacArthur line was proving to be an elite combination early in the season but has since been broken up at times as the Sens have struggled over the past month. 

 

MacArthur has only managed three points in his most recent eight games. Expect MacArthur’s production to slightly regress as Paul MacLean tries various line combinations. For the sake of MacArthur owners hopefully the Ryan-Turris-MacArthur line is reunited on a more frequent basis.

 

Article #9) Forensics: P.A. Parenteau

 

The polarizing PA Parenteau established himself as fantasy relevant over the past two seasons. In 2011-2012 he put up 67 points playing alongside John Tavares and last season posted a very respectable 43 points in 48 games while playing the majority of the time with Matt Duchene. Everyone was starting to expect 65-70 points from Parenteau and now this season he is only on pace for 50 points.

 

2013-2014 Regular Season

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

36

9

13

22

0.61

50

-2

18

71

1

0

2

0

0

02:34

50.7

0.8

17:30

28.7

 

Playing more often with Paul Stastny and less with Matt Duchene is clearly part of the issue and in my opinion the major concern.

 

Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

19.87%

EV

92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE - 26 STASTNY,PAUL

19.31%

EV

9 DUCHENE,MATT - 90 O'REILLY,RYAN - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE

16.01%

EV

29 MACKINNON,NATHAN - 11 MCGINN,JAMIE - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE

7.23%

EV

11 MCGINN,JAMIE - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE - 26 STASTNY,PAUL

4.82%

EV

90 O'REILLY,RYAN - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE - 26 STASTNY,PAUL

 

Shortly after my Parenteau article fellow Dobber Hockey writer Demetrios Fragopoulos aka The Contrarion weighed in with his respective opinion and his logic for holding Parenteau rather than trading him. Demetrios’ main argument was the fact that the Avs have three quality centers in Duchene, Nathan MacKinnon, and Paul Stastny.

 

Since then fellow Dobber Hockey writer Chris Wassel posted an article about the merging of Duchene and MacKinnon on the same line which in my opinion hurts Parenteau’s value.

Final Note: Parenteau has six points in his last 15 games.

 

Thank you for taking a look back with me at my first nine articles. Hopefully it offered some value and insight as you make the push for your league’s respective championship. Good luck the rest of the way and Happy New Year Dobber Nation.


Write comment
Comments (2)add comment

MolsonX said:

MolsonX
... Thanks germant. I'm glad you enjoyed the read. I really like the end of year article idea. Great suggestion!!

Cheers.
December 30, 2013
Votes: +0

germant said:

germant
Thanks!
Great read Dallas. I enjoyed the look back and thnk the idea should be employed more often. I would really like to see an end-of-year look at the yearbook to see the most major hits and misses.

Have a great 2014!
December 30, 2013
Votes: +0
You must be logged in to post a comment. Please register if you do not have an account yet.

busy