JiriTlusty USA Today

 

Sometimes, all an NHL player needs is a chance. Jiri Tlusty received his last year.

 

And a player needs to be ready, because they never know when that opportunity will come. Sometimes it’s an increase in ice time when a teammate gets injured, clicking with the new linemates or switching from defence to forward.

 

Or in some cases, all it takes is a new coach who is willing to give you that chance.

 

That’s what happened with Jiri Tlusty last season. Once Kirk Muller took over the head coaching duties in Carolina, Tlusty has seen an increase in ice time and quality of linemates, helping him finish fifth in the goal-scoring race this past year

Just look at his top linemates from the last three seasons.

 

2010-11


Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

21.45%

EV

39 DWYER,PATRICK - 16 SUTTER,BRANDON - 19 TLUSTY,JIRI

14.69%

EV

59 LAROSE,CHAD - 16 SUTTER,BRANDON - 19 TLUSTY,JIRI

11.59%

EV

36 JOKINEN,JUSSI - 16 SUTTER,BRANDON - 19 TLUSTY,JIRI

9.65%

EV

20 BODIE,TROY - 29 CARTER,RYAN - 19 TLUSTY,JIRI

8.25%

EV

39 DWYER,PATRICK - 71 SAMSON,JEROME - 19 TLUSTY,JIRI

5.94%

EV

14 SAMSONOV,SERGEI - 16 SUTTER,BRANDON - 19 TLUSTY,JIRI


2011-12


Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

18.79%

EV

39 DWYER,PATRICK - 16 SUTTER,BRANDON - 19 TLUSTY,JIRI

15.97%

EV

15 RUUTU,TUOMO - 12 STAAL,ERIC - 19 TLUSTY,JIRI

14.21%

EV

59 LAROSE,CHAD - 12 STAAL,ERIC - 19 TLUSTY,JIRI

5.81%

EV

71 SAMSON,JEROME - 12 STAAL,ERIC - 19 TLUSTY,JIRI

3.99%

EV

12 STAAL,ERIC - 13 STEWART,ANTHONY - 19 TLUSTY,JIRI

3.77%

EV

39 DWYER,PATRICK - 12 STAAL,ERIC - 19 TLUSTY,JIRI

3.18%

EV

59 LAROSE,CHAD - 16 SUTTER,BRANDON - 19 TLUSTY,JIRI


2012-13


Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

59.3%

EV

28 SEMIN,ALEXANDER - 12 STAAL,ERIC - 19 TLUSTY,JIRI

3.59%

EV

39 DWYER,PATRICK - 12 STAAL,ERIC - 19 TLUSTY,JIRI

3.22%

PP

28 SEMIN,ALEXANDER - 12 STAAL,ERIC - 19 TLUSTY,JIRI

2.89%

EV

59 LAROSE,CHAD - 12 STAAL,ERIC - 19 TLUSTY,JIRI

1.97%

PP

28 SEMIN,ALEXANDER - 53 SKINNER,JEFF - 12 STAAL,ERIC - 19 TLUSTY,JIRI

1.72%

EV

28 SEMIN,ALEXANDER - 11 STAAL,JORDAN - 19 TLUSTY,JIRI

 

Going from playing with Patrick Dwyer and Brandon Sutter to Eric Staal and Alexander Semin is a huge upgrade.

 

In the 102 games Tlusty has played for Muller, he has 65 points, a 0.64 points-per-game pace, highlighted by last season’s 38 points in 48 games. In 174 games with other coaches, Tlusty has 47 points, for a 0.27 points-per-game pace.

 

And while Muller may have shown faith in his player, you can sum up Tlusty’s breakout season in two simple words: Eric Staal.

 

Line production


Total Points for Jiri Tlusty : 38

Str

On Ice Line Combination

Points

%Total
Points

EV

SEMIN,ALEXANDER - STAAL,ERIC - TLUSTY,JIRI

20

52.63%

PP

SEMIN,ALEXANDER - STAAL,ERIC - TLUSTY,JIRI

4

10.53%

PP

BRENT,TIM - SEMIN,ALEXANDER - STAAL,ERIC - TLUSTY,JIRI

3

7.89%

EV

SEMIN,ALEXANDER - STAAL,JORDAN - TLUSTY,JIRI

3

7.89%

EV

STAAL,ERIC - TLUSTY,JIRI - WALLACE,TIM

1

2.63%

EV

STAAL,ERIC - TLUSTY,JIRI - WESTGARTH,KEVIN

1

2.63%

EV

JOKINEN,JUSSI - STAAL,ERIC - TLUSTY,JIRI

1

2.63%

PP

SKINNER,JEFF - STAAL,ERIC - TLUSTY,JIRI

1

2.63%

EV

LAROSE,CHAD - STAAL,ERIC - TLUSTY,JIRI

1

2.63%

EV

SEMIN,ALEXANDER - STAAL,ERIC - STAAL,JORDAN - TLUSTY,JIRI

1

2.63%

EV

DWYER,PATRICK - STAAL,ERIC - TLUSTY,JIRI

1

2.63%

EV

BRENT,TIM - LAROSE,CHAD - NASH,RILEY - TLUSTY,JIRI

1

2.63%

 

Staal was on the ice for 34 of Tlusty’s 38 points, almost 90 per cent.  And as you can see, Tlusty had only eight powerplay points. Staal was on the ice for every one of those, as well. Staal is the catalyst of this whole thing. As he goes, so too goes Tlusty.

 

Time on Ice

TOI

PP TOI

2012-13

18:14

2:37

2011-12

14:54

0:51

2010-11

9:51

0:09

 

 

Since Muller took over, Tlusty has seen a major increase in ice time and powerplay ice time, two more reasons for the points increase.

 

In the first 25 games of the 2011-12 season under Paul Maurice, Tlusty played less than 12:30 on nine occasions. In 102 games with Muller, he’s only played less than 12:30 five times.

 

So was Tlusty a one-season wonder, or is this the start of a fantasy-relevant hockey career?

 

Tlusty’s value skyrockets in salary cap leagues. He is slated to make $1.6 million this season. How many first-line players that have a shot at 60-plus points making less than $2 million? Not many.

 

There are some other things working in Tlusty’s favour in non-salary leagues: There’s no reason to expect that Tlusty will not be playing with Eric Staal to start the season as there was no major signing or trade this summer that could take ice time away from him. Muller is still the head coach and has faith in Tlusty. The powerplay should be better than what it was last season, which will give Tlusty more points.

 

However, there are still reasons to be skeptical. Tlusty’s shooting percentage was a whopping 19.7 per cent last year, which was 10th in the league for guys playing at least 30 games. His 5-on-5 PDO — which basically measures luck — was 1.040, 16th in the league among guys who have played at least 500 minutes. Eric Staal injured his knee last year at the World Championships in May, so he may not be 100 per cent by the time the season begins on Oct. 4 against the Detroit Red Wings.

 

With no real competition behind him, Tlusty should be solid as a top linemate for Eric Staal for the upcoming season.  Unless he falters big time, he should expect to stay there for quite a while.

 

Previous Forensics Posts:

 

David Krejci

Travis Zajac

 

This year, he should be able to replicate his points-per-game pace of 0.79. Pencil him in for 65 points. 

 


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Comments (4)add comment

newfcollins said:

newfcollins
... I would keep him for at least this year, and then make a decision next summer on the following year. But if he keeps playing well with Staal, I can't see why they would take him off that line.
September 03, 2013
Votes: +0

Primates said:

Primates
What about in 2 years? Hi!

I,m in a keeper league and I will like to know if it's worth to keeping him for the nest 2 years?

Thanks!
September 02, 2013
Votes: +0

newfcollins said:

newfcollins
... Thanks. I appreciate the kind words.
August 31, 2013
Votes: +0

Spec7ral said:

Spec7ral
... Great concise article, references to multiple league setups as well as advanced stats without doting on them. Really liked the way it was presented and written, fantastic job!
August 30, 2013
Votes: +0
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