BlakeWheeler

 

 

The latest contracts signed - and how they should be valued in salary-cap fantasy leagues.

 

Even though the pace of free agent signing has slowed tremendously, there have still been some very important players who signed new deals over the last few days. Each of these signings are significant in the fantasy world and each player’s value is affected differently in each different league format.

In order to analyze each player’s value according to Fantasy Hockey Geek (2012-13 season), we will use the following league formats:

  • Points-only
  • Yahoo Standard (G, A, +/-, PIM, GWG, PPP)
  • UHL head-to-head roto (G, A, +/-, PIM, SOG, GWG, PPP, SHP, HITS, BKS, FOW)

Note: The points-only rank is just based on poins ignoring positions meaning that forwards are generally ranked higher than defensemen.

 

 

Name

2013-14

2014-15

Points-only Rank

Yahoo Standard Rank

UHL Rank

Blake Wheeler

5,600,000

5,600,000

30

99

63


Blake Wheeler has emerged as one of the NHL’s best players over the last two seasons. He was rewarded with a massive new contract. In points-only leagues he is absolutely worth the money. He is a star who should be a staple in your lineup if you own him. Points-only: Thumbs up!

In the two roto settings his value is hurt but not as much as some people think because of his solid totals in hits and blocked shots. He is still worth the money but it is not as much of a slam dunk as it is when only looking at points. You may want to quietly shop around for a similarly-priced guy that produces more in your format.

Roto: Thumbs in the middle.


Name

2013-14

2014-15

Points-only Rank

Yahoo Standard Rank

UHL Rank

Bryan Little

4,700,000

4,700,000

69

129

105


Bryan Little is a strong two-way player and his new salary is based on his strength at both ends of the rink. This hurts his fantasy value in cap leagues especially in pools focusing primarily on offensive categories. He has only cleared the 50-point mark once although he was on pace to hit 55 in the shortened 2012-13 season. He may be a tad overpaid for points-only leagues but it is not a massive overpayment and his long-term upside could make him much more valuable down the road. Points-only: Thumbs in the middle.

In the roto formats he ranks well and his high volume of faceoff wins further help his rank in the UHL league. He is not a bargain in these leagues but he is certainly not overpaid either. His salary fits his production.

Roto: Thumbs up!

 

Name

2013-14

2014-15

Points-only Rank

Yahoo Standard Rank

UHL Rank

Jaromir Jagr

4,000,000

49

74

127


Jaromir Jagr just finished an excellent offensive campaign with 35 points in 45 games. He was probably helped by the shorter schedule though. He had just 10 points (no goals) in 22 playoff games for the Boston Bruins and also slowed down over the course of the 2011-12 season with Philadelphia as evidenced by this quarterly breakdown:

 

2011-12 Quarters

GP

G

A

P

Pts/GP

Pace

Q1

18

6

11

17

0.94

77

Q2

15

6

8

14

0.93

77

Q3

17

4

7

11

0.65

53

Q4

23

3

9

12

0.52

43


So the question poolies must answer is whether or not Jagr can be relied upon to carry his production over to this season in New Jersey. At 41 years of age he will struggle to repeat. A more likely outcome is the 54 points he had with the Flyers two years ago which includes a strong start and weaker finish. He does not have elite players around him in New Jersey but he has a spot locked down on the first or second line and will get a ton of power play opportunities.

In the end, Jagr is still fantasy-relevant. In both points-only and roto settings his numbers remain strong and his $4-million cap hit does not drag down his value.

Overall Thumbs up!


Name

2013-14

2014-15

Points-only Rank

Yahoo Standard Rank

UHL Rank

Joe Pavelski

4,000,000

6,000,000

83

61

29


Joe Pavelski signed a five-year $30-million contract extension that begins in the 2014-15 season. Thankfully that leaves his cap hit at a bargain $4 million for this year. His output in recent years has been excellent aside from an off-year in 2012-13 with just 31 points. Still, he should be good for 60 points per year moving forward. While he does not possess as much long-term upside as Wheeler, his point pattern is similar and their salaries are also similar. Even when the new agreement takes effect he should still be worth owning in points-only leagues.

Points-only: Thumbs up!

In roto leagues Pavelski is a star. Despite the subpar offensive year he still maintained a very high rank and was stellar in the UHL where faceoff wins and blocked shots help his cause. When the offense is there he is one of the very best roto league players and easily worth the money.

Roto: Major Thumbs up!


Name

2013-14

2014-15

Points-only Rank

Yahoo Standard Rank

UHL Rank

Mark Fraser

1,275,000

428

84

61


Mark Fraser recently settled prior to his arbitration hearing and scored a one-year worth $1.275 million. To be polite, scoring points is not where he earns his money. He finished last year with eight points and only has 16 in his career. Even at his price range there are dozens of alternatives who will easily out-produce Fraser on the score sheet.

Points-only: Thumbs down!

However, in roto leagues Fraser had a breakout season and was one of the best cap bargains in the league. His lack of offense is countered by excellent totals in hits, PIM and blocked shots. His plus-minus was also outstanding although it will be tough for him to repeat that number. Even if he regresses statistically he is still worth his contract and will remain an asset to your team.

Roto: Major thumbs up!


Name

2013-14

2014-15

Points-only Rank

Yahoo Standard Rank

UHL Rank

Zach Bogosian

5,142,857

5,142,857

294

275

257


Zach Bogosian’s new contract is bad news in fantasy circles. He is a very good defenseman with some untapped potential but the cap hit is simply too high. He has had trouble staying healthy and his development has not progressed as quickly as expected. Having Dustin Byfuglien and Tobias Enstrom in the mix takes away some of Bogosian’s offensive potential but the fact remains that poolies have invested heavily in the former third-overall pick and now face an inflated cap hit that comes before the player has raised his play to the elite level.

So far his career-high is 30 points (2011-12 in 65 games). That scales up to 38 points over 82 game. But the fact is that he has not been able to avoid injury. Unfortunately, there are too many cheaper alternatives available in his points range. The same applies in roto leagues where plenty of cheap all-around defensemen have great value. He could break out offensively one day but how long are you going to hold out for that? It may be wiser to let someone else make that decision.

Overall thumbs down!



Recent 'Capped' articles:


The Departed: Ilya Kovalchuk 
What to Make of the Remaining NHL UFAs 
Capped: The Cap Value of NHL Goaltenders 

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