Article Index
Kyle Okposo vs. Bryan Little
More - Relative Value of Points
All Pages

 

Relative Value of Points

Points are more valuable for a fantasy team when they’re not shared by other players owned in your league, since those are the kinds of points that can cause actual movement in the standings. In looking at this area, it’s a good opportunity to examine the Frozen Pool data for each player in 2012-13 and to focus on the trends for this season thus far.


2012-13

 

52.48%

EV

12 BAILEY,JOSH - 51 NIELSEN,FRANS - 21 OKPOSO,KYLE

16.06%

EV

26 MOULSON,MATT - 21 OKPOSO,KYLE - 91 TAVARES,JOHN

6.55%

EV

40 GRABNER,MICHAEL - 51 NIELSEN,FRANS - 21 OKPOSO,KYLE

6.39%

EV

40 GRABNER,MICHAEL - 21 OKPOSO,KYLE - 16 REASONER,MARTY

38.81%

PP

12 BAILEY,JOSH - 51 NIELSEN,FRANS - 21 OKPOSO,KYLE

22.39%

PP

10 AUCOIN,KEITH - 40 GRABNER,MICHAEL - 21 OKPOSO,KYLE

 


64.7%

EV

16 LADD,ANDREW - 18 LITTLE,BRYAN - 26 WHEELER,BLAKE

9.4%

EV

80 ANTROPOV,NIKOLAI - 16 LADD,ANDREW - 18 LITTLE,BRYAN

48.86%

PP

16 LADD,ANDREW - 18 LITTLE,BRYAN - 26 WHEELER,BLAKE

12.27%

PP

12 JOKINEN,OLLI - 16 LADD,ANDREW - 18 LITTLE,BRYAN - 26 WHEELER,BLAKE

9.77%

PP

80 ANTROPOV,NIKOLAI - 16 LADD,ANDREW - 18 LITTLE,BRYAN

 

2013-14 (games through November 4nd)

 

45.65%

EV

26 MOULSON,MATT - 21 OKPOSO,KYLE - 91 TAVARES,JOHN

20.55%

EV

21 OKPOSO,KYLE - 91 TAVARES,JOHN - 26 VANEK,THOMAS

12.75%

EV

40 GRABNER,MICHAEL - 21 OKPOSO,KYLE - 91 TAVARES,JOHN

59.88%

PP

26 MOULSON,MATT - 51 NIELSEN,FRANS - 21 OKPOSO,KYLE - 91 TAVARES,JOHN

23.95%

PP

51 NIELSEN,FRANS - 21 OKPOSO,KYLE - 91 TAVARES,JOHN - 26 VANEK,THOMAS

 


29.56%

EV

16 LADD,ANDREW - 18 LITTLE,BRYAN - 40 SETOGUCHI,DEVIN

23.76%

EV

9 KANE,EVANDER - 18 LITTLE,BRYAN - 26 WHEELER,BLAKE

23.01%

EV

16 LADD,ANDREW - 18 LITTLE,BRYAN - 26 WHEELER,BLAKE

74.48%

PP

16 LADD,ANDREW - 18 LITTLE,BRYAN - 26 WHEELER,BLAKE

 

I’m sure no one reading this is surprised to see that Okposo’s blazing hot start to 2013-14 has coincided with finally seeing regular PP and EV shifts with John Tavares. Sure, the Islanders have toyed with pairing Okposo with Tavares in the past, but only in spurts and almost never on the PP. With Okposo having produced while lined up next to Tavares for the first chunk of this season, it stands to reason that he’ll be able to keep that spot until and unless the line begins to seriously falter.

As for Little, on the power play he remains where he’s been for the past few seasons – alongside Andrew Ladd and Blake Wheeler. But while he’s still cumulatively spending 50% or more of his even strength shifts with Ladd and Wheeler, it’s no longer always on the same line, as Evander Kane and Devon Setoguchi have factored into the mix. This is an interesting development which might partially explain why Little’s scoring is in uncharted territory so far in 2013-14.

The only real downside with Okposo being paired with Tavares and either Matt Moulson (before the recent Sabres/Islanders trade) or Thomas Vanek (after the trade) is those guys are owned in nearly all fantasy hockey leagues (as of November 4th, Moulson is 96% owned in Yahoo leagues, Vanek 99%), making Okposo’s points less valuable. But with Okposo sitting in the top ten in scoring, that’s an issue his owners are more than happy to deal with. Plus, with Wheeler and Ladd being owned in 75% and 86% of Yahoo leagues respectively (Kane is owned in 96%, but Setoguchi only 8%), his points are being shared in most leagues as well.

 

So Who Wins?

First things first – it’s highly unlikely that Okposo will be able to continue producing at his current pace, let alone finish the year as a point per game player. But 70+ points is not out of the question given the gains he’s made in Ice Time and his upgrade in linemates.

The picture is cloudier with Little. On the one hand, he’s still getting essentially the same Ice Time, which would suggest that his hot start is just temporary. But he’s also seeing shifts with forwards other than Andrew Ladd and Blake Wheeler, which might be giving him a spark that could stretch longer into the season and help him up his production.

We can gain some additional insight on both players by looking at another area – shooting percentage. Eight of Little’s 13 points so far this season are goals, and he’s firing at an entirely unsustainable 25.0%. Even if he both matches his career high of 18.0% when he scored 31 goals and 51 points in 2008-09 and continues playing with linemates other than Ladd and Wheeler, the shooting percentage and Ice Time data tilts the scales toward his stats coming back to earth. Don’t get me wrong – he still might end up besting his career high of 51 points, but don’t look for more than 55-60.

And while Okposo also has a higher than normal shooting percentage of 12.1% as of right now, that’s less inflated compared to his career numbers than Little’s. Plus, only six of Okposo’s 13 assists (13 is tied for third in the entire NHL) thus far have been secondary assists, making it less likely that his helper total is a total fluke.

Little owners probably should kick the tires on trading him in hopes of landing a player who’s a more likely bet to finish above 60 points, which Little has yet to do and probably won’t achieve this season. As for Okposo, as hard as it might be to deal him now while he’s red hot and as concerned as you might be about him turning into a star after you trade him, it’s probably a good idea to look into moving him. After all, if you can get a surefire 70+ point player in return for Okposo, can you really say no? Let me know your thoughts in the comments.

 

Recent Cage Matches:

 

Jeff Skinner vs. Nazem Kadri 
David Desharnais vs. Tyler Ennis 
Dan Boyle vs. Kimmo Timonen   

 


Write comment
Comments (11)add comment

RizzeeDizzee said:

RizzeeDizzee
... @27Blue - Fair points, but as was pointed out in the column, it's not just that Okposo is playing with Tavares; he's also receiving a lot more Ice Time. There's no doubt that his point total is bolstered by Tavares, but 40-50 might be an underestimate based on what we're seeing now and with the Ice Time he's getting. Plus, debating about what he'd do without Tavares doesn't matter if he stays stapled to Tavares.
November 07, 2013
Votes: +0

27Blue said:

27Blue
... Okposo is not a 70 point player, or even a 60 point player, on any other line on the Islanders.
He is not that offensively talented. In fact he is quite limited in most offensive skills.
Put him on any other line and he is a 40-50 point guy.
With Tavares and 20+ minutes a night, though, it is a different story.

And Moulson isn't a 60-70 point guy either, except with Tavares or on a complete gong-show of a team like the Sabres, where he could continue to see big minutes.
November 06, 2013
Votes: -1

RizzeeDizzee said:

RizzeeDizzee
... @STONE - I appreciate any and all comments, and yours have included very good insight. FAR from trolling.

I just tossed out those names as quick examples. In the end, deciding what to do with a player like Okposo is like deciding whether to sell a hot stock. Sure, you can sell when you've doubled or even tripled your money and lock yourself into a stock that looks safer and more stable on paper, or you can roll the dice that it has even more room to go up in value. And just like in the stock market, no one has figured out how to decide correctly every time in fantasy hockey.

In the end, it also has a lot to do with your goals for your team and how close you might be to challenging for first place, just like smart stock picking involves your tolerance for risk and how close you might be to retirement.
November 06, 2013
Votes: +0

STONE. said:

STONE.
... Fair enough. Not trolling, just prodding.
For the record, Parise hasn't hit 70 in the past 3-4 years (wasn't prorated for it last year).
Vanek has only hit 70 once in the last six years (although twice when prorating last year).
I suppose I just think that if Matt Moulson (unheralded 9th round pick) can put up 69 and last year's prorated 75+ alongside Johnny T, then Okposo (former first rounder) shouldn't be sold as a guy that won't continue this run.
I would agree that I'd move Okposo for Toews or Kopitar. I'm not so sure about Parise at this point though. It might be more savvy to offer Parise for Okposo+.
Basically, I actually wonder if better advice is to suggest offering a bigger name for Okposo while he's still get-able.
November 06, 2013
Votes: +0

RizzeeDizzee said:

RizzeeDizzee
... @STONE - my vision of a proven 70+ point guy is someone who is all but assured to get you 70+ points if he stays healthy, and gives you a better outside chance at reaching to hit 80 than falling down to 60. Guys that come to mind at this point are Kopitar, Parise, Toews and, coincidently, Vanek, At this point, I'd probably still take any of them over Okposo despite how great he's playing.
November 06, 2013
Votes: -1

STONE. said:

STONE.
... I suppose it depends on what you're considering a "proven 70+ contributor."
Kessel or P. Kane or Giroux? Yeah, but I don't think those names are going to be offered for Okposo.
But once you get into names like Eriksson (will he be 70+ in Boston?), Kesler (will he stay healthy?), or Hossa (oldtimer?), I think I'd gamble on the younger Okposo and forget the proven name. But I might be regretting it in January if he's back to his former self.
November 06, 2013
Votes: +0

RizzeeDizzee said:

RizzeeDizzee
... Thanks for the additional comments and positive feedback

@STONE - You make very good points about there being less logic/urgency in moving Okposo if you landed him for a cheap price and that there's a difference in enjoying the ride versus automatically assuming that Okposo has made the leap into elite territory. But either way, I think his owners owe it to themselves to at least listen to offers they might receive for him. In today's NHL there are very few proven 70+ point contributors, so if you could land one of them for Okposo then can you really not even consider it?

@spencergough - sounds like a wise trade with Little; and if you could leverage him to get Giroux then I'm guessing you can land an even bigger prize by flipping Okposo while he's red hot.
November 06, 2013
Votes: +0

STONE. said:

STONE.
... I enjoyed this. I do, however, wonder why we always assume a guy like Okposo can't continue this pace (or at least a steady near PPG pace).
The potential has been there, and Dobber's first mention of him in his guides said it would take a few years.
I sometimes think we get so fixated on selling high that we lose out.

How many guys sold high on Moulson after/midway through 2009 only to see his points increase every season after?
I wouldn't buy Okposo as a PPG guy, but I don't know that I'd sell him as a guaranteed faller either. Chances are, if you own him you got him at a low -- enjoy the ride! If he falls, you'll still be able to sell him as a guy with the potential to do what he's doing right now and still come out ahead. But why move him while he's flying?
November 06, 2013
Votes: +0

spencergough said:

spencergough
... Great stuff. Long-time Okposo hopeful here, finally enjoying his success!

I had Little AND Okposo, actually. Sent Little and Jack Johnson for Claude Giroux (then I picked up Gudas). Feeling pretty good about that one, even if Giroux takes some time to rebound. Hopefully I can work a similar flip with Okposo.
November 06, 2013
Votes: +0

RizzeeDizzee said:

RizzeeDizzee
... @aleco83 - glad to hear you found the article helpful as an owner of both players. I agree that Okposo's increased production has a lot (if not everything) to do with being stapled to Tavares, but the Islanders as a team have improved to an extent that he might still be doing somewhat better on the second line. Either way, it's hard to argue with you trying to use Okposo to land Giroux -- as bad as Giroux is playing I think most poolies would agree that he's still a very safe bet to outpoint Okposo in future seasons.
November 06, 2013
Votes: +0

aleco83 said:

aleco83
... Solid article, it's nice to see the trends for each player. I own both players and there is perhaps one point that gives Little a lot of value and that's SH production. His 2 SHG on the year do wonders for leagues that count the stat. Otherwise, the edge seems to be with KO while - the caveat is that should he get booted off the JT line things could slide quickly. I actually just offered KO + for Giroux. Good Ol sell high buy low.
November 06, 2013
Votes: +0
You must be logged in to post a comment. Please register if you do not have an account yet.

busy