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The Top 100 Roto is back! Summer vacation is over for both the NHL and this list, and all the teams have a clean slate. The Top 100 has been wiped clean as well, with Gates Imbeau stepping aside. He has moved from refining this list each month to focusing more on the back-end of the Dobber Sports Network. Download September's Top 100 Roto Here.

 

 

** Version 2 uploaded - fixed pages issue and category issue **


I am honored to take up this torch and to have been entrusted to blaze my own path. I will do my best each and every month to bring you a tool that gives you the upper hand in your pool, and one that brings you another perspective on player’s values. Know that this list is not the be all and end all, but it can be another valuable piece in DobberHockey’s incredible toolbox.



This month’s publication is really only the starting point of what I want to do. In the months that come, I am considering adding info-graphics, some comments, possibly contributions from others, additional columns, a defense-specific list, and more. Each month, I will alternate from a one-year based list to a keeper-based list. As such, the kickoff edition features the one-year list, and I think it has enough to fill the spotlight for this month.

 

 

 

Download September's Top 100 Roto Here.

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I would like to take a second to thank a couple people. Thomas Drance for giving me my first writing gig at CanucksArmy.com when all I had was a neat resumé and some cool ideas. Jeff Angus for the opportunity to write my Rebuilding to Contention series on the top Fantasy Hockey website on the Internet. And finally, Gates Imbeau for trusting me and for giving me more than one chance to make my mark. Anyone with a bit of luck, a bit of creativity and a bunch of passion can do this. Make it happen.

 

Austin Wallace
Email:  This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
Twitter: @austeane

 


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austeane said:

austeane
Spencer and St. Louis First of all, if nothing else this has been an exercise in testing for bugs before you release a major project to the public.
In the proxy-ranking for fantasy value that I had been using to determine who the pool of players to compare the top 100 to, Martin St. Louis was actually first. Then when my Excel-expert (who is awesome) known sometimes as Letangerang58 copied those players into another sheet for calculating tiers, St. Louis was not included. Compared to some other things he has faced, being cut in Calgary, lack of recognition, etc... I think this isn't the biggest (no pun intended) slight he has faced.
I apologize for looking over him, and we will be in the next update.
In lieu of that, his tier score is 2.57 (right after Parise in the pink tier) and his category scores are: 4, 1, 6, 8, 4, 4, 7.
In a league where assists are worth as much as PIMs, this is fair. He had a +/- of zero, which is below average when we are only taking top players into account. His only dominant category was assists (thus, Art Ross).

In a future month, I could not include hits and we can see how much the values change.
After thinking about it, a better idea might be to provide the raw category scores in a way that you can generate your own tier score from the categories, but that only sorta works right now. That way, its a simple list still but you can apply it to your own league if you want to.

If you are interested in commenting and having those comments stay around, you can comment on the Top 100 Roto link on the right:
http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php/columnistsarticles-mainmenu-77/26-rankings/1801-top-100-roto-players
September 20, 2013
Votes: +0

spencergough said:

spencergough
... Always glad to have a new tool to help evaluate the draft pool in September. I think skepticism is a valued commodity when dealing with any tool, but when the information is presented as data, like here, without

First: no Martin St Louis? I know he doesn't hit or get penalties, but 90 points has to be pretty valuable... He's going to have twice as many points (Dobber projects 44 over 65 games) and PPP as Hanzal. Yeah, Hanzal hits a lot, but ranked at 36? Seems a high rank for a 3rd line centre and certified band aid boy.

Second (a question I'd been saving for the appropriate time, and not unrelated to my Martin vs Martin debate above): my league uses blocked shots instead of hits. Surely most readers have a different setup than this league. What's the best way of compensating for these differences when adjusting player evaluations for my own league?

Hits always makes a huge difference in with these lists - Hanzal vs St Louis, for example - and I really like that you've displayed all of each player's tiers (which had disappeared from later editions of the GMG Roto lists), even though we're mercilessly criticizing those now (!). But regardless of what tier someone belongs to, I'm more interested in how the elimination or substitution of scoring categories can have such a drastic effect on player rankings (I know this isn't FHG, but just for comparison: for my league settings, FHG has Hanzal ranked 226 for this year; St. Louis is 22).

Looking forward to the next edition!
September 19, 2013
Votes: +0

BradyJets said:

BradyJets
No Martin St. Louis? If this is a one-year league ranking system, shouldn't Martin St. Louis be in there somewhere? He can't fall THAT far that he's out of the top 100, can he?
September 19, 2013
Votes: +0

austeane said:

austeane
gfunkb7 Yes, in fact I had discussions with them as far as collaborating and I did generate a list for these categories with them. I got tremendous help from Paul, the Fantasy Hockey Geek himself, when discussing how to do rankings and different valuations. That being said, I think I have something unique that adds value to what is already there, including FHG. If I base it on FHG, it may as well just BE FHG.
I really appreciate the advice, and I could consider adding things to the list, maybe even where they are ranked on other lists (with permission).
September 18, 2013
Votes: +0

gfunkb7 said:

gfunkb7
FHG Have you tried running your cats through Fantasy Hockey Geek? I think, however, they use a weighted-point-system. Nonetheless, using the past 3 years, we see, for example, Danny Briere ranked 15th in value (C,W,D,Bench), which should not be interpreted as his value for the upcoming season.

Food for thought.

You have time to retool your product and make it something more saleable to the public. Keep up the good work though

Cheers
September 18, 2013
Votes: +0

austeane said:

austeane
Dr. Smurf Fixed! I thought all the mistakes were caught after putting all the players names/stats in manually. Not quite.
September 18, 2013
Votes: +0

austeane said:

austeane
gfunkb7 Thanks for the comments!
1) The pdf has been fixed, and now only has 20 per page. I may be able to lower that even further if it continues to cause people issues. It will be up soon.

2) Is Kunitz on the same tier as those guys, in terms of a hockey player? No. In terms of a keeper league? No. In terms of what he should do this year, and has done the past couple years? Yes. If he continues to play with Crosby, there is no real reason to think he won't be a top fantasy player again in this format.

That isn't to say I wasn't surprised too. When he popped up ahead of Stamkos, I first checked the numbers, then considered rearranging the rankings manually. I have decided against that, at least for this month. When the keeper league rankings come out, he will be a bit further down the list. And no, this isn't based overly much to last year, as Voracek is still far down the list.


3/4) I think I might have go back and fix the wording here. I like the tiers for a lot of reasons, but one of the big ones is that it compares hits to shots to goals to penalty minutes in a way that actually makes sense. Each statistic for each player fits on a tier, and the tiers are determined by taking into account only fantasy relevant players. For example, Crosby fit into tier one in assists for 2012-13 with 1.14 a game. After I have all the tiers for all the stats in each year for each player, I average all the tiers for each player in each year.

For example, in 2012/13 Crosby had a tier-average of 2.86, as his tiers were 2, 1, 1, 7, 1, 1, 7.

After I have all 4 tier averages (Dobber's projections and the three past years of play), I do a weighted average of those scores and that is what the tier-score is. One thing I could improve for next month is scaling the tier-scores so that they go from 1 (Crosby) to 10 (or some other nice number for the last player).

My solution for showing the difference is the colour-tiers, but that is imperfect as well, as the gaps vary.
September 18, 2013
Votes: +0

Dr.Smurf said:

Dr.Smurf
... Spelling mistake: Martin Hanzel!
September 18, 2013
Votes: +0

GMGates said:

GMGates
... Version 2.0 uploaded. Thanks for all the initial feedback - keep at it!
September 18, 2013
Votes: +0

austeane said:

austeane
Fixed After hours of debugging, I believe I have found a virus that was affecting my data. I believe it came from Ukraine.




By that, I mean I mixed up the category names. I think everything is correct except the top row should read "G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG, HITS". Currently the last four are exactly backwards.

A fixed version should be up soon!
September 18, 2013
Votes: +0

gfunkb7 said:

gfunkb7
... Hey Austin.

Glad you got the Top 100 mandate. Couple of things.

1) What's up with the .pdf file? Lists 3 pages, yet page 3 is long as funk. IMO, there's too much formatting for what it's worth. My laptop is 2 years old, but opening the file made my comp lagggggggg.
2) I know you want to keep your first piece unaltered, but you can't sell me Kunitz being in the same tier as Stamkos and Neal, and Lupul being above Getzlaf.
3) There are lots of colors... but only two tiers?
4) I don't understand the purpose the Tier pointage. There's a .68 difference between the eleventh-ranked player and the 100th. You need to develop a better way to demonstrate how Backes (11) is worth more than Ryder (99), who shouldn't even be on that list.

Keep it up son!
September 18, 2013
Votes: +0

austeane said:

austeane
Oileroiler Thanks for the quick feedback, I will look into the formula and see what happened! Hartnell>OV in shots is not reasonable. I did use per-game statistics, so if someone has a season where they get 30 shots in the 6 games they played, that can screw up the tiers.
September 18, 2013
Votes: +0

oileroiler said:

oileroiler
... I think there are also some issues with the Hits column. Sidney Crosby shouldn't be in the same hitting tier as Ryan Callahan and in a tier ahead of Backes. There's some weird stuff going on in this chart.
September 18, 2013
Votes: +0

oileroiler said:

oileroiler
... Conversely, Hartnell and Lucic are rated as being Tier 1 or 2 (which would be elite by your description)....I am confused, haha.
September 18, 2013
Votes: +0

oileroiler said:

oileroiler
New Roto Ranking Format Hi Austin!

Thanks for the write-up, and I like the idea of introducing tiers to the roto rankings. I am noticing some anomalies in how you assigned the tiers for some categories. For example, SOG: how can Ovi, Stamkos, Neal and Malkin only be tier 5 or 6 in SOG? These are the perennial leaders and should be Tier 1 for the SOG category shouldn't they?
September 18, 2013
Votes: +0
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